1/17/09: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 2:51 PM CST, Saturday, January 17th, 2009
Here are some snowfall totals that were reported around Northern Minnesota from last night and This Morning.
Wrenshall MN: (Carlton County) 1.3″
3 miles Northeast of Tofte MN: (Cook County) 5.8″
7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: (Lake County) 3.2″
Beaver Bay MN: (Lake County) 3.0″
Silver Bay MN: (Lake County) 4.0″
Duluth MN: (St. Louis County) 1.1″
International Falls MN: (Koochiching County) 1.7″
5 miles North of Grand Marais MN: (Cook County) 8.0″
2 miles North-Northwest of Illgen City MN: (Lake County) 4.5″
Orr MN: (St. Louis County) 2.1″
Kabetogama MN: (St. Louis County) 2.6″
Lutsen MN: (Cook County) 4.8″
Surface Analysis at 20z:
Low pressure averaging 1004 mb was centered over the Eastern Wisconsin/Western Lake Michigan area. Low pressure averaging 1008 mb was moving into the Eastern part of Manitoba Province. A warm front attached to the Manitoba low extended from Southern to Eastern Manitoba Province.
Upper Air Analysis at 20z:
Amplified N-NWRLY flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today with a vigorous low pressure system and upper level low associated with 120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls exiting to the east of Minnesota This Afternoon while a new disturbance drops S-SE across Western Ontario/Eastern Manitoba while a large 500 mb ridge remained in place west of the Rockies Today. Strong jet stream winds of 120-140 knots were noted ahead of this upper level ridge from Manitoba Province down to the Central Dakotas Today per RUC model Analysis. 850 mb temperatures around Minnesota ranged from -16 to -18 degrees C over Northern/Eastern Minnesota to -6 to -8 degrees C over Western/Southwest Minnesota.
Low pressure system which brought anywhere from 1 to 8 inches of snow to portions of Northern/Eastern Minnesota last night and This Morning had shifted east/southeast of Minnesota by This Afternoon. The greatest snow amounts with this storm did occur along the North Shore of Lake Superior from around Two Harbors up toward the Grand Marais area thanks to a S-SE surface wind coming off Lake Superior out ahead of this low which resulted in some lake enhanced snow totals up in that area. Areas of freezing drizzle also developed over parts of Minnesota late last night and lingered through This Morning which caused some icy travel in some locations. There was also areas blowing and drifting snow that affected parts of Western/Southern Minnesota late last night and Today due to strong winds of 20-45 mph on the backside of this potent low pressure system.
High temperatures around Minnesota were in the single digits, teens, and 20s Today with some spots West/South up into the low 30s for a time earlier in the day. Winds across the state shifted to the north and west by This Morning with wind speeds through the day averaging 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 40 mph like I stated above for Western/Southern parts of the state.
Temperatures at 3 PM around Minnesota ranged from 18 at Roseau to 8 at International Falls to 9 at Two Harbors to 27 at Ortonville to 15 at Brainerd to 28 at Pipestone to 19 at Rochester.
Tonight through Sunday Night:
Not much change in the overall weather pattern around our area during this forecast period. Continued N-NWRLY flow aloft will control our weather which will cause some periodic disturbances to drop almost due south from Northern Canada. These systems will be weaker though compared to the one that passed through earlier Today. Look for scattered snow showers and flurries at times around Minnesota from Tonight through Sunday Night with accumulations under an inch. May also see some patchy light freezing drizzle around parts of Minnesota later Tonight into Sunday Morning. Look for partly/mostly cloudy skies around the state during this period with lows Tonight and Sunday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero with high temperatures on Sunday in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the north, west, or northwest around 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast:
N/NW flow aloft will continue around our area into early next week with more weak disturbances dropping south in this flow. Additional flurries or some snow showers will be possible around Minnesota on Monday and Tuesday, but nothing big is expected at this time. It seems less likely with each passing day that will see the ridge out west move past Minnesota early next week, so although it will be warmer around the state, I don’t think will see any widespread thawing occur due to this big ridge staying to our west, then getting shoved back toward the south later next week.
Colder air looks to return later next week, although the models Today have backed off a bit on the intensity of this next cold air surge. May also be dealing with some sort of a snow system later next week around the Upper Midwest with the 12z GFS model from Today being the most robust with this system, the EURO and GLOBAL models are farther north/east with the low which would mean less snow for most of Minnesota in front of this next cold blast.
High temperatures around Minnesota next Monday and Tuesday will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with lows both nights in the single digits, teens, and 20s.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Variable cloudiness. A few snow showers or flurries possible. Low 4 below to 5 above. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. A few snow showers or flurries possible. High 12 to 18. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday Night… A few flurries possible. Variable cloudiness. Low 2 below to 5 above.
.Monday… A few flurries possible. Variable cloudiness. High 15 to 20.
.Monday Night… Flurries possible. Low 5 to 10.
.Tuesday… Flurries possible. High 20 to 25.
.Tuesday Night… Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.
3 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 11.7 degrees
Dewpoint: 1 degree
Humidity: 64%
Wind: N at 4 mph G 14 mph
Max Temperature Today: 11.7 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 90%
Min Temperature Today: 2.7 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 64%
Tim

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