Issued at 4:05 PM CST, Friday, January 23rd, 2009
Surface Analysis at 21z:
Low pressure averaging 1001 mb was centered over the Southeast Ontario/Southwest Quebec area. High pressure averaging 1050 mb was building southeast from Eastern Alberta and Western Saskatchewan.
Upper Air Analysis at 21z:
Flow aloft was NWRLY Today with a potent jet max of 120 knots centered over Central Minnesota at Mid-Afternoon per RUC model analysis. H5 12 hour height falls up to 120-150 meters were found Today over the Upper Great Lakes as the disturbance responsible in bringing down this latest round of arctic air exits Minnesota to the east This Afternoon. Polar vortex at 2130z was dropping southeast through Northeast Manitoba/Western Hudson’s Bay per water vapor satellite imagery… H85 temperatures at 21z ranged from -14 to -16 degrees C across Southern Minnesota to -22 degrees C across Northern Minnesota. The 850 mb temp at Duluth was -20 degrees C at 3 PM Today. Temperatures aloft have dropped 15-20 degrees over the past 24 hours around Minnesota.
Low pressure and it’s associated arctic front swept southeast through Minnesota late last night and This Morning. This system did bring some areas of light freezing drizzle, flurries, and snow showers to parts of Minnesota, but no big ice or snow accumulations were reported anywhere in the state. Winds behind this sytem increased out of the north/northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 40 mph over parts of Western-Southern Minnesota late last night through Today. These gusty winds caused areas of blowing and drifting snow over parts of the state from early This Morning through the Afternoon hours.
High temperatures occurred early in the day when readings were in the single digits, teens, and 20s…By This Afternoon, temperatures had fallen into the single digits below to above zero with some teens lingering over parts of Southern Minnesota. Afternoon wind chills were in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below occurring from time to time over parts of Northern and Northwest Minnesota.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 11 degrees at St. Paul to -6 degrees at Hallock to -9 degrees at Roseau to 1 degree at Grand Rapids to -2 degrees at Ely to -6 degrees at Wadena to 3 degrees at Little Falls to 9 degrees at Moose Lake to 1 degree at Redwood Falls to 9 degrees at Faribault to 12 degrees at Red Wing.
Wind chills around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from -26 degrees at Bemidji to -31 degrees at Thief River Falls to -23 degrees at International Falls to -13 degrees at Duluth to -24 degrees at Fergus Falls to -23 degrees at Windom to -23 degrees at New Ulm.
Tonight through Saturday Night:
*Wind Chill Advisory* covers all of Minnesota through Saturday…
High pressure will be in control of our weather as it remains centered to our west and southwest. The flow between this high and a low off to our north-northeast will result in a northwest flow aloft around Minnesota. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies around the state through Saturday Night with low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some 30s below possible over the North. Highs on Saturday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens below possible North. A reinforcing shot of arctic air is forecast to drop south into Northern Minnesota Saturday Night with H85 temps dropping to -20 to -28 degrees C at that time. Northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with occasional higher gusts will result in dangerous wind chill values of 20 below to 40 below over most of Minnesota through this forecast period, the lower values will occur during night and Morning hours.
An unphased jet stream will remain over the U.S. into the middle of next week. Appears that Minnesota will be dominated by the northern jet which will mean little chance of any organized snow systems around our neck of the woods at least through the middle of next week. The most active weather during the late weekend into the mid part of next week period looks to reside over the Central and Southern Plains where warmer air and the southern branch of the jet stream interact with the polar airmass which will result in rounds of snow, ice, and rain for those locations. A low associated with the northern branch of the jet looks to track N-NE of Minnesota the middle and end of next week, but with the storm track to our north, nothing more than flurries or snow showers are expected here in Minnesota.
High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits below to above zero Sunday and Monday with some teens possible South. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with some 30s below possible North.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until Noon CST Saturday…
.Tonight… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Clear. Low 15 below to 21 below Inland and from 10 below to 15 below closer to Lake Superior. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.
.Saturday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 2 below to 6 above. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below before Noon, and from 10 below to 25 below during the Afternoon.
.Saturday Night… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.
.Sunday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 5 above.
.Sunday Night… Bitterly cold. Partly cloudy. Low 15 below to 20 below.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 1 below to 6 above.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 12 below to 18 below.
4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 4.7 degrees
Dewpoint: -11 degrees
Wind: WNW at 7 mph G 17 mph
Max Temperature Today: 21.8 degrees, occurred at 12:18 AM Today.
Max Humidity Today: 97%
Min Temperature Today: 4.7 degrees through 4 PM Today.
Min Humidity Today: 46%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 18 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degree