Issued at 3:23 PM CST, Saturday, January 24th, 2009
Surface Analysis at 21z:
Ridge of arctic high pressure averaging 1034-1042 mb extended from Eastern Nebraska to the Eastern Alberta/Western Saskatchewan area while a few areas of low pressure averaging 1012-1014 mb were found over the Central Rockies.
Upper Air Analysis at 21z:
Northwest flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today with a large polar vortex spinning around over Hudson Bay. An H3 jet streak of 120-130 knots was in place over Northern and Central Minnesota This Afternoon per RUC model analysis. 850 mb temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM Today ranged from -18 to -20 degrees C, while -24 to -30 degree C 850 mb temps cover areas north and northeast of Minnesota Today.
Mostly sunny to sunny skies covered Minnesota with high temperatures in the single digits below to above zero with some low teens along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds were out of the west, southwest, or northwest Today at 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts. Afternoon wind chills around Minnesota were in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM ranged from 3 degrees at South St. Paul to -4 degrees at Bemidji to -8 degrees at Thief River Falls to -1 degree at International Falls to 7 degrees at Eveleth to 12 degrees at Silver Bay to -8 degrees at Wadena to -2 degrees at Staples to zero degrees at Cambridge to 1 degree at Redwood Falls to 9 degrees at Winona.
Tonight through Monday Night:
*Wind Chill Advisory* remains in effect for all but Southern areas of Minnesota. The advisory for Central/Eastern areas of Minnesota is set to expire Sunday Afternoon.
Large and dry arctic high pressure ridge will remain to our west and south during this forecast period while a polar vortex remains to our northeast. Northwest flow aloft will prevail around our area during the next two days with little overall change in temperatures expected. Bitter cold nights and very cold days are anticipated with the current pattern were in. A reinforcing shot of arctic air associated with H85 temps of -25 to -30 degrees C will spill south into Northern Minnesota Tonight and Sunday, although the heart of this second cold air surge will remain to our northeast the way it looks now. Low temperatures Tonight, Sunday Night, and Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some spots in the North possibly dropping into the 30s below. High temperatures Sunday and Monday will be in the single digits below to above zero with some locales sneaking into the low teens above zero. Winds will continue to be from the west, northwest, or southwest through Monday at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts at times. Wind chills during the Overnight and Morning hours will fall into the 15 below to 40 below range around Minnesota with Afternoon wind chills ranging from around 5 below to 25 below. Sky conditions around the state will be clear to partly cloudy with more clouds at times across Southern Minnesota thanks to some overrunning snowfall which will develop Tonight through early next week for areas west and south of Minnesota, it’s possible that some flurries may sneak into extreme Southern Minnesota at times during this period, but that would be about the extent of it.
The Upper Midwest will be controlled by the Northern Branch of the jet stream most of next week. Two low pressure systems look to pass by to our north next week, with one passing by around Tuesday/Wednesday and the other toward the latter part of next week. Scattered snow showers, flurries, and perhaps a bit of light freezing drizzle could occur with both systems around Minnesota, but no major amounts of precip are expected since the lows will be passing too far to our north to cause more significant amounts of precipitation. High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the single digits and teens. Could see a brief return of arctic air around Thursday of next week which could send low temps below zero once again, but at the moment it appears that any arctic outbreak would be short lived later next week since the flow aloft seems to be more progressive at that time which tends to lead to frequent tempeature swings around the Upper Midwest.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect through Noon CST Monday…
.Tonight… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.
.Sunday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 below to 7 above. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below in the Morning, and from 10 below to 20 below during the Afternoon.
.Sunday Night… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below. Wind west around 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below.
.Monday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High zero to 8 above. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.
.Monday Night… Frigid… Mostly clear. Low 12 below to 18 below.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 5 to 10.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.
3 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 4.8 degrees
Dewpoint: -14 degrees
Wind: WSW at 14 mph G 22 mph
Max Temperature Today: 5.6 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 81%
Min Temperature Today: -15.9 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 39%
Normal High Temperature Today 18 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today -1 degree