Issued at 4:07 PM CST, Monday, January 26th, 2009
On this date in 2004, 0.78″ of precipitation and 18.2″ of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.
As of Today’s date, the entire Western portion of Lake Superior has frozen over based on satellite imagery. This was about the sametime that Western Lake Superior frozed over back in 1994. While in 1977, Western Lake Superior frozed over about a week earlier. Both 1994 and 1977 were memorable winters around the Great Lakes.
Average Temperature at Duluth Minnesota from December 27th through January 25th has been zero degrees and this has been 7 to 8 degrees below what the mean temperature should be during this time period.
Precipitation Total at Duluth Minnesota from December 27th through January 25th has been 0.50″ which is just 25-50% of average for this time period.
In other words, it’s been very cold and extremely dry for the most part since late December.
Surface Analysis at 21z:
Arctic high pressure ridge averaging 1034 mb was centered to the west and southwest of Minnesota.
Upper Air Analysis at 21z:
Northwest flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today while a positive tilted trough heads east through the Rockies, strong jet stream winds of 120-150 knots were present on the south and east sides of this trough Today per RUC model. A nice plume of subtropical moisture was evident on water vapor satillite imagery This Afternoon from the Baja region northeast through Texas up through the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley region to the east of this trough. The stage is being set for a significant ice storm and winter storm for portions of the Southern Plains through Missouri/Arkansas, and points northeast from there through mid-week. This storm will have no impact on Minnesota’s weather since were being influenced big time by a northwest flow aloft. H5 heights have come up a bit around Minnesota over the past 24 hours per 12z RUC model analysis which indicates that this latest round of arctic is beginning to ease up slightly. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 21z ranged from -14 to -16 degrees C with the coldest air found in Eastern Canada with -22 to -26 degree C 850 mb temperatures This Afternoon.
Mostly cloudy skies were found across the South half of Minnesota Today with some flurries and areas of light snow at times, accumulations were extremely light though. Sunshine prevailed for the remainder of Minnesota. High temperatures were in the single digits below to above zero with a few locations climbing into the low teens. Winds across the state were out of the west, southwest, or northwest around 15 mph or less Today.
4 PM Temperatures around Minnesota ranged from 5 degrees at Blaine to -6 degrees at Warroad to -9 degrees at Fosston to 2 degrees at International Falls to 3 degrees at Eveleth to -6 degrees at Alexandria to -8 degrees at Fergus Falls to 3 degrees at Aitkin to 9 degrees at Moose Lake to 11 degrees at Granite Falls to 10 degrees at Waseca to 12 degrees at Winona.
Tonight through Tuesday Night:
*Wind Chill Advisory* has been extended through Tuesday Morning for Northern and parts of Western Minnesota.
Arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather during this forecast period. Look for mostly cloudy skies over the South Tonight and Tomorrow with some flurries or areas of very light snow possible at times. The remainder of Minnesota will have clear to partly cloudy skies through Tuesday. By Tuesday Night, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies statewide with some snow showers or flurries spreading toward Western Minnesota later in the night as a clipper low approaches from the northwest. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with teens, 20s, and even some 30s below possible outside of Southern Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. Winds through Tuesday Night will be out of the west, northwest, or southwest around 20 mph or less.
Low pressure will pass off to the north/east of Minnesota from Wednesday into Thursday, this low combined with a cold front which will drop southeast through the state will go on to produce some snow showers and flurries around Minnesota from Wednesday into early Thursday. Snow amounts will be light with most locations only picking up a dusting to perhaps an inch of new snow. A brief shot of arctic air will follow this clipper for Thursday and early Friday, then a stronger clipper will pass by to our north over the weekend which will set the stage for some gusty winds south of this low over Minnesota along with milder temperatures ahead of the low with colder temps developing behind the low and cold front. The greatest threat for snow with this second clipper is forecast to be north of Minnesota based on the latest storm track with only flurries and possibly a few snow showers falling over parts of Minnesota from late Friday through the weekend.
All in all the northwesterly flow aloft looks to prevail around the Upper Midwest into the weekend while a ridge of high pressure re-develops just off the U.S. West Coast after mid-week. This will mean little chance for any big weather systems affecting our area at least through the weekend.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
*Wind Chill Advisory* now in effect through 10 AM CST Tuesday…
.Tonight… Bitterly cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 14 below to 21 below. Wind west under 15 mph. Wind chills ranging from 25 below to around 40 below.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 3 to 9. Wind west to southwest around 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 3 below to 8 below. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Accumulations under an inch. High 13 to 18. Chance of snow 30%.
.Wednesday Night… Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.
.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 11 to 16.
.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 6 below to 13 below.
4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 4.7 degrees
Dewpoint: -11 degrees
Wind: WSW at 7 mph G 12 mph
Max Temperature Today: 6.5 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 81%
Min Temperature Today: -16.2 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 45%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow -1 degree