Issued at 4:54 PM CST, Tuesday, January 27th, 2009
Surface Analysis at 22z:
High pressure averaging 1026 mb was centered over Western Iowa with low pressure averaging 1000 mb moving into Western Saskatchewan Province.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted trough with an axis from the Central Plains toward Minnesota tracking south/east. Powerful jet stream winds of 130-170 knots were found per RUC model out ahead of this trough from Texas to Southern Wisconsin into the Northeast U.S. To our northwest, there are two systems of interest for our area, the first one was heading toward Southern Manitoba while the latter system was tracking through British Columbia on it’s way into Alberta Province. 12 hour H5 height falls up to 120 meters were found Today with the system over Northwest Canada. H85 temperatures at 22z ranged from -12 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to -14 to -16 degrees C over the rest of Minnesota.
Partly cloudy to sunny skies covered Minnesota Today with high temperatures mostly in the single digits and teens. Winds were out of the south or west around 10 to 20 mph.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 11 degrees at St. Paul to -6 degrees at Hallock to 4 degrees at International Falls to 10 degrees at Eveleth to zero degrees at Wadena to 5 degrees at Aitkin to 7 degrees at Mora to 16 degrees at Granite Falls to 15 degrees at Glencoe to 7 degrees at Dodge Center.
Tonight through Wednesday Night:
Arctic high pressure will finally move off to the southeast of Minnesota during this forecast period which will make way for a clipper system which will approach Minnesota from the northwest. Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail around the state Tonight with clouds increasing later in the night over Western areas of the state. Look for partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies across Minnesota on Wednesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday Night. Areas of snow showers and flurries will likely develop around parts of Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few tenths to as much as an inch of new snow possible by late Wednesday Night over Western, Central, and Eastern areas of the state. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with some 20s below possible Northeast. Highs Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds Tonight and Wednesday will be out of the south or west around 10 to 20 mph with west, southwest, or northwest winds expected Tomorrow Night at 10 to 25 mph with some higher gusts possible over Western/Southern areas of the state.
A brief shot of colder air with H85 temps falling to -14 to around -20 degrees C will push into Minnesota Thursday into early Friday behind the low pressure system that’s moving through our area Wednesday and Wednesday Night. A couple disturbances will continue to drop SE across Minnesota Thursday and Thursday Night and those systems could bring some additional flurries or snow showers to parts of Minnesota during that time. Another clipper low, this one taking a much farther north track than the one on Wednesday could bring a few flurries to Northern areas of Minnesota Friday and Friday Night. Then, over the weekend look for a strong area of low pressure (sub 990 mb) to pass through Central Canada with a warm front and cold front attached to this low passing through the Upper Midwest. The bulk of the lift and energy associated with this system will pass north-northeast of Minnesota, but a vigorous upper level trough swinging E/SE out of the Northern Rockies into Minnesota could bring a few snow showers or flurries to parts of Minnesota from Saturday Night through Sunday. The bigger issue with the weekend’s weather could be the gusty winds that may develop around Minnesota, 850 mb winds are forecast to increase to 30 to around 55 knots, and some of this could mix down to the surface which could make for a pretty windy weekend around parts of Minnesota. High temperatures on Friday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Friday Night in the teens West and South with single digits below to above zero elsewhere. Temperatures aloft are forecast to spike into the +4 to +8 degree C range over most of Minnesota on Saturday which could lead to high temperatures rising into the 30s for most areas of the state, 40s could even occur in Southwest Minnesota, the problem is that we have a deep snow pack over all of Minnesota, so much of this warming may not make it all the way to the surface, if that happens…then high temps would hold in the 20s and 30s around the state. Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Mostly Clear. Low 4 below to 9 below. Wind southwest around 12 mph.
.Wednesday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible later in the day. High 13 to 18. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Total event accumulations under an inch. Low zero to 5 above. Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
.Thursday… A few flurries possible. Partly sunny. High 11 to 16.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 6 below to 13 below.
.Friday… Partly sunny. High 10 to 15.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 7.2 degrees
Dewpoint: -12 degrees
Wind: SSW at 6 mph G 10 mph
Max Temperature Today: 12.9 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 77%
Min Temperature Today: -13 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 36%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 19 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow zero degrees