2/28/09: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:42 PM CST, Saturday, February 28th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

Arctic high pressure averaging 1024 mb had pushed northeast of the area Today and was centered over Central Ontario Province. A surface trough was moving NW-SE through Northeast Minnesota Today with west/southwest winds found ahead of this trough, and a wind shift to the north/northwest behind it. 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters were located over the West half of Ontario Province Today near this trough. A new and much stronger area of arctic high pressure averaging 1046 mb was building into Central Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon, behind the trough that’s moving through our area This Afternoon.

After a bitterly cold start to the day around the area, temperatures have climbed nicely This Afternoon, but were still seeing high temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees below average on this last day of February. High temperatures were mostly in the teens and low 20s around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with west to southwest winds, or north to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Here are some low temperatures from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Saturday, February 28th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -18 degrees

International Falls MN: -29 degrees

Brainerd MN: -22 degrees

Hibbing MN: -25 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -13 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -27 degrees

Grand Marais MN: -20 degrees

Ely MN: -27 degrees

Orr MN: -24 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -26 degrees

Cook MN: -27 degrees

Bigfork MN: -26 degrees

Pine River MN: -24 degrees

Aitkin MN: -20 degrees

Moose Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cloquet MN: -22 degrees

Superior WI: -17 degrees

Ashland WI: -21 degrees

Hayward WI: -24 degrees

Bruno MN: -23 degrees

Embarrass MN: -33 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -27 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -25 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -29 degrees

Littlefork MN: -24 degrees

7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: -27 degrees

Upson WI: -29 degrees

Winter WI: -24 degrees

Forecast details through next week:

Flow aloft will amplify thanks to a few things. First, a strong upper level low that will track into the Southeast U.S., then up the East Coast. Second, a low pressure system riding N/NE off the U.S. West Coast. The combination of these two things will cause an H5 ridge to develop over the Western U.S., while a sharp trough takes shape over the Central-Eastern U.S. A colder than normal pattern will result due to our area being controlled by the N/NW upper level flow pattern. Looks like the pattern will undergo a transition by the middle of next week as the ridge shifts into the Central U.S. and a new trough takes shape out West. Remains to be seen how long this new pattern will last…Since our area just can’t seem to shake the more amplified N/NW flow patterns over the last couple months. In other words, we may just see a brief 1-2 day SW flow pattern, before we go right back into a colder N/NW type of pattern.

-Note: A very cool 1km high resolution satellite image off the Dupage Model site This Afternoon which shows how expansive the ice pack is over Lake Superior, although there seems to be some breaks in the ice over portions of Central and Western Lake Superior, but most of Central-Western Lake Superior is ice covered Today, with Northern parts of the lake seeing more open water versus the rest of the lake.

Tonight:

Look for clear-partly cloudy skies across the area with another night of very cold temperatures ahead. Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below for most areas with winds going from the southwest/west, to the north/west. Wind speeds will range from 10 to around 20 mph Tonight with wind chills later Tonight ranging from 10 below to around 30 below zero.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Strong arctic high pressure will settle right over our area during this period. Look for mostly clear to clear skies with highs Sunday in the single digits below to above zero with some teens also possible. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some more 20s below possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be out of the north, east, or southeast around 15 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

May see some flurries pass through the area early next week as warm advection starts to take place as arctic high pressure pushes off to our east, any precipitation looks very light at this time though. The middle to end of next week may feature an area of low pressure ejecting out of the Western trough. Exact details of the track, timing, and intensity of this low are far from certain this far out, but it will have to be watched, since it could be our next big weather maker around the Northland with the potential for snow, rain, or freezing rain…Again timing right now is uncertain, but right now it would appear that the mid to end of next week is when we could see a better potential for some precipitation around our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 9 below. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 15 below to 25 below.

.Sunday… Sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 below. Wind southeast around 10 mph.

.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

.Tuesday Night… Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 27 to 32. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 10 degrees

Tim

Low Temperatures

Issued at 5:47 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Here are some low temperatures that were reported around the Northland earlier Today, Friday, February 27th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -9 degrees

International Falls MN: -14 degrees

Hibbing MN: -10 degrees

Two Harbors MN: -11 degrees

Grand Marais MN: -15 degrees

Ely MN: -15 degrees

Orr MN: -20 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cook MN: -15 degrees

Sky Harbor MN: -2 degrees

Pine River MN: -13 degrees

Cloquet MN: -11 degrees

Superior WI: -4 degrees

Embarrass MN: -17 degrees

Littlefork MN: -22 degrees

Northome MN: -19 degrees

Tim

Snowfall report

Issued at 5:39 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Here are some snowfall reports from around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday and Thursday Night, February 26th, 2009.

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 10.3″

3 miles North-Northeast of Finland MN (Lake County) 8.0″

10 miles Southeast of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 7.5″

Leader MN (Cass County) 7.0″

1 mile North of Adolph MN (St. Louis County) 6.8″

8 miles South of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 6.3″

Duluth MN-Canal Park (St. Louis County) 6.0″

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 6.0″

4 miles West of Washburn WI (Bayfield County) 5.4″

12 miles North of Isle MN (Aitkin County) 5.2″

5 miles West-Southwest of Solon Springs WI (Douglas County) 5.0″

Aitkin MN (Aitkin County) 4.5″

Bayfield WI (Bayfield County) 4.1″

Brainerd (Crow Wing County) 4.0″

2 miles Southeast of Esko MN (Carlton County) 4.0″

Duluth MN-Woodland (St. Louis County) 3.8″

4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 3.7″

Duluth MN-Lakewood Township (St. Louis County) 3.5″

13 miles South of Superior WI (Douglas County) 3.5″

Remer MN (Cass County) 3.0″

3 miles South of Spooner WI (Washburn County) 3.0″

Tim

2/27/09: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:04 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1998, 1.16″ of precipitation fell at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date in 1996, 8.4″ of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

High pressure of 1038 mb was centered over Northeast North Dakota late This Afternoon with a northwesterly flow aloft in place ahead of this high across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Saw lots of sunshine around the area Today with this arctic high in control, but temperatures were on the cold side with readings generally in the single digits and teens. Winds have relaxed quite a bit though compared to 24 hours ago with a variable wind generally under 15 mph across the area Today.

Tonight:

High pressure will be in control of our weather which will result in clear to partly cloudy skies and another night of very cold late February temperatures. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with variable winds under 12 mph. Looking at the 1km high resolution visible satellite imagery reveals a lake effect cloud streamer just offshore of Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin as of 2301z… This area of clouds hasn’t made any progress to the west yet, and with variable winds expected to remain in place Tonight, I don’t believe this lake effect cloud streamer/snow shower activity will head west into the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight. The only model showing any chance for lake effect snow Tonight is the 4km WRF/NMM, as this model does show this area of lake clouds/snow showers pushing west and northwest toward the North Shore Tonight.

Saturday/Saturday Night:

Southwest winds will develop as one arctic high moves away from the area while a cold front pushes south-southeast through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Afternoon and Evening… A new arctic high will build into our area by Saturday Night, once this cold front moves through. The southwest winds on Saturday will range from 10 to 25 mph with north to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on tap for Saturday Night. High temperatures will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s Saturday with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. The wind shift to the north/northwest could cause some scattered lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Night with light accumulations expected at this time.

Extended Forecast:

Strong arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather through Sunday Night, look for highs on Sunday to be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to above zero. A northwest flow aloft will continue across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin into early next week, but as high pressure pushes off to our east, will see a return flow develop…This could lead to some snow showers or flurries by early next week around the region, but snow amounts look pretty minor at this time. By next Tuesday, there are indications of another pretty strong high passing north/northeast of Lake Superior…This could cause winds to shift to the E/NE and with a cold airmass already in place, we could be setting the stage for some lake effect snow shower activity from Bayfield and Douglas Counties in Northwest Wisconsin through the Twin Ports, and northeast along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Long Term Forecast:

Upper level pattern looks to transition from a northwest flow to a southwest flow by the middle and end of next week, and possibly lasting through next weekend. May see a low pressure system affect Northeast Minnesota’s/Northwest Wisconsin’s weather between Wednesday Night and Friday of next week with a possibility for rain, snow, or even some ice. Over the past few days, the GFS model has even hinted at some elevated instability poking north toward Pine County Minnesota into Burnett, Washburn, and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin next Thursday, this could lead to some thunderstorm development if the instability develops. Timing, track, and intensity issues will likely change from day to day and from model run to model run in regards to this possible mid to late week storm…Stay tuned…

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Very cold. Low 5 below to 12 below. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 12 to 18. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest later in the day.

.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 above to 5 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.’

.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 below.

.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 10 degrees

Tim

2/26/09: Winter Weather Headline Information

Issued at 5:16 PM CST, Thursday, February 26th, 2009

*Winter Storm Warning* continues until 6 PM CST for the following counties in Minnesota: Southern Cass… Crow Wing… And Southern Aitkin… This includes the cities of Leader… Brainerd… Pequot Lakes… Breezy Point… Pine Center… Aitkin… And McGrath… Snow will taper off to flurries This Evening in the warning area, but strong north winds will continue to produce areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night. Total snow accumulations will range from 4 to 8 inches in the warning area. This same area is also under a *Wind Chill Advisory* which is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday…Wind chills during this time period could drop to between 20 below and 35 below zero.

*Winter Storm Warning* continues until 12 AM CST Tonight for the following counties: Pine MN… Burnett WI… Washburn WI… Sawyer WI… And Price WI… Some cities included in the warning are: Pine City MN… Hinckley MN… Askov MN… Siren WI… Grantsburg WI… Spooner WI… Hayward WI… And Park Falls WI… Snow will continue in the warning area This Evening with snow tapering off to flurries from southwest to northeast during the mid to late Evening hours. Total snow accumulations in the warning area will range from 4 to 9 inches. Gusty winds will persist through the night which will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight for Douglas County… Bayfield County… Ashland County… And Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin. Some cities included in the advisory are: Superior WI… Solon Springs WI… Brule WI… Poplar WI… Oliver WI… Patzau WI… Port Wing WI… Bayfield WI… Herbster WI… Ashland WI… And Hurley WI… Snow will persist through the Evening before tapering off to snow showers and flurries Overnight. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected in the advisory area with locally higher totals near Lake Superior.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 12 AM CST Tonight for Southern St. Louis and Carlton Counties in Northeast Minnesota. *Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday. Some cities included in the advisories are: Duluth MN… Esko MN… Cloquet MN… And Moose Lake MN… Snow will continue in the advisory area This Evening before ending around Midnight. Total accumulations will range from 3 to around 6 inches. Gusty winds and arctic air moving into the area later Tonight will cause wind chills to fall to between 20 below and 35 below zero Overnight into Friday Morning. The gusty winds will also cause areas of blowing and drifting snow through the night.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 6 PM CST Tonight for Lake County MN and Cook County MN with a *Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday… Some cities included in the advisories are: Two Harbors MN… Silver Bay MN… Tofte MN… Lutsen MN… Grand Marais MN… And Isabella MN… Snow will end This Evening with total accumulations ranging from 3 to around 7 inches. Bitter cold will follow with wind chills dropping to 20 below to 35 below Overnight into Friday Morning. Gusty winds will also lead to blowing and drifting snow through the night.

*Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday for the following counties in Northern Minnesota: Koochiching County… Northern and Central St. Louis… And Itasca… Some cities included in the advisory are: International Falls MN… Bigfork MN… Grand Rapids MN… Hibbing MN… Ely MN… Virginia MN… And Crane Lake MN… Bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills of 20 below to 35 below zero are forecast Tonight and Friday Morning in the advisory area.

Tim