Issued at 3:42 PM CST, Saturday, February 28th, 2009
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:
Arctic high pressure averaging 1024 mb had pushed northeast of the area Today and was centered over Central Ontario Province. A surface trough was moving NW-SE through Northeast Minnesota Today with west/southwest winds found ahead of this trough, and a wind shift to the north/northwest behind it. 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters were located over the West half of Ontario Province Today near this trough. A new and much stronger area of arctic high pressure averaging 1046 mb was building into Central Saskatchewan Province This Afternoon, behind the trough that’s moving through our area This Afternoon.
After a bitterly cold start to the day around the area, temperatures have climbed nicely This Afternoon, but were still seeing high temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees below average on this last day of February. High temperatures were mostly in the teens and low 20s around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with west to southwest winds, or north to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Here are some low temperatures from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Saturday, February 28th, 2009.
Duluth MN: -18 degrees
International Falls MN: -29 degrees
Brainerd MN: -22 degrees
Hibbing MN: -25 degrees
Sky Harbor MN: -13 degrees
Silver Bay MN: -27 degrees
Grand Marais MN: -20 degrees
Ely MN: -27 degrees
Orr MN: -24 degrees
Crane Lake MN: -26 degrees
Cook MN: -27 degrees
Bigfork MN: -26 degrees
Pine River MN: -24 degrees
Aitkin MN: -20 degrees
Moose Lake MN: -24 degrees
Cloquet MN: -22 degrees
Superior WI: -17 degrees
Ashland WI: -21 degrees
Hayward WI: -24 degrees
Bruno MN: -23 degrees
Embarrass MN: -33 degrees
3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -27 degrees
Kabetogama MN: -25 degrees
3 miles East of Orr MN: -29 degrees
Littlefork MN: -24 degrees
7 miles Northwest of Two Harbors MN: -27 degrees
Upson WI: -29 degrees
Winter WI: -24 degrees
Forecast details through next week:
Flow aloft will amplify thanks to a few things. First, a strong upper level low that will track into the Southeast U.S., then up the East Coast. Second, a low pressure system riding N/NE off the U.S. West Coast. The combination of these two things will cause an H5 ridge to develop over the Western U.S., while a sharp trough takes shape over the Central-Eastern U.S. A colder than normal pattern will result due to our area being controlled by the N/NW upper level flow pattern. Looks like the pattern will undergo a transition by the middle of next week as the ridge shifts into the Central U.S. and a new trough takes shape out West. Remains to be seen how long this new pattern will last…Since our area just can’t seem to shake the more amplified N/NW flow patterns over the last couple months. In other words, we may just see a brief 1-2 day SW flow pattern, before we go right back into a colder N/NW type of pattern.
-Note: A very cool 1km high resolution satellite image off the Dupage Model site This Afternoon which shows how expansive the ice pack is over Lake Superior, although there seems to be some breaks in the ice over portions of Central and Western Lake Superior, but most of Central-Western Lake Superior is ice covered Today, with Northern parts of the lake seeing more open water versus the rest of the lake.
Look for clear-partly cloudy skies across the area with another night of very cold temperatures ahead. Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below for most areas with winds going from the southwest/west, to the north/west. Wind speeds will range from 10 to around 20 mph Tonight with wind chills later Tonight ranging from 10 below to around 30 below zero.
Sunday and Sunday Night:
Strong arctic high pressure will settle right over our area during this period. Look for mostly clear to clear skies with highs Sunday in the single digits below to above zero with some teens also possible. Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some more 20s below possible in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will be out of the north, east, or southeast around 15 mph or less.
May see some flurries pass through the area early next week as warm advection starts to take place as arctic high pressure pushes off to our east, any precipitation looks very light at this time though. The middle to end of next week may feature an area of low pressure ejecting out of the Western trough. Exact details of the track, timing, and intensity of this low are far from certain this far out, but it will have to be watched, since it could be our next big weather maker around the Northland with the potential for snow, rain, or freezing rain…Again timing right now is uncertain, but right now it would appear that the mid to end of next week is when we could see a better potential for some precipitation around our area.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Very cold. Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 9 below. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills ranging from 15 below to 25 below.
.Sunday… Sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 below. Wind southeast around 10 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Tuesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.
.Tuesday Night… Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 20%.
.Wednesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 27 to 32. Chance of snow 20%.
Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 10 degrees