Issued at 4:32 PM CST, Sunday, February 1st, 2009
Surface Analysis at 22z:
Low pressure averaging 994 mb was centered over Western Quebec. A cold front attached to this low extended from Eastern Ontario to the Upper Michigan-Lake Superior border back through Northern Minnesota. Low pressure averaging 1012 mb was centered over Southeast Manitoba. A few areas of high pressure averaging 1024-1034 mb were centered over the Western High Plains back through the Northern Rockies.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
Heights have come crashing down in Minnesota compared to 24 hours ago with much colder temps moving in aloft, but not much of this has made it to the surface just yet, all this has taken place behind the strong storm system that was north of Minnesota on Saturday and now Today was centered over Eastern Canada. Upper level winds were out of the northwest across Minnesota Today behind this feature with H85 temps at 4 PM Today ranging from -10 to -14 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -6 to -8 degrees C over the rest of Minnesota. New arctic surge with H85 temps of -22 degrees C over Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba attm will be pushing southeast into Minnesota during the next two days. Looking at the water vapor satellite imagery This Afternoon reveals am upper level trough heading southeast through the Northern Plains and adjacent areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba while an upper level low heads slowly east and slightly east-southeast across Northern Ontario.
Mostly cloudy skies were found across Northern Minnesota where some flurries and snow showers have occurred at times. The rest of the state saw mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures Today were generally in the 20s and 30s with westerly winds at 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.
4 PM temperatures around Minnesota ranged from 34 degrees at St. Paul to 21 degrees at Detroit Lakes to 20 degrees at International Falls to 30 degrees at Two Harbors to 32 degrees at Willmar to 31 degrees at Maple Lake to 32 degrees at Moose Lake to 37 degrees at Granite Falls to 34 degrees at Owatonna to 34 degrees at Austin.
Tonight through Monday Night:
*Wind Advisory* in effect from 6 PM CST Tonight until Midnight CST Tonight for parts of Northwest and Western Minnesota. Some cities included in the advisory are: Moorhead… Detroit Lakes… Breckenridge… Fergus Falls… Elbow Lake… Crookston… Hallock… And Warren…
A cold front will be dropping south through Minnesota Tonight which will then be followed by an inverted type trough which will lay up across Northeastern Minnesota. An area of low pressure will also drop southeast into Northern Minnesota Tonight, this low will then exit to our southeast Monday and Monday Night. This system combined with a pretty potent upper level trough which will continue to push southeast into the Upper Midwest will go on to generate areas of snow showers and flurries over parts of Minnesota through Monday Evening. The best chance for snow will be found in Northern and Northeast Minnesota where 1 to 2 inches of snow could accumulate by Monday Afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the state this period with lows Tonight in the single digits and teens with some subzero readings possible West. Highs Monday will be in the single digits and teens with locations out West possibly staying a few degrees below zero. Lows Monday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero for most areas of the state. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph with wind gusts of 20 to 45 mph occurring Tonight and Monday.
Chilly airmass will linger around Minnesota Tuesday into early Wednesday as high pressure will be centered over our area…This high will scoot east on Wednesday as low pressure approaches from the northwest. Southwesterly return flow will develop ahead of this low and on the backside of the high by Mid-Week which will result in warming temperatures over the Upper Midwest. A cold front attached to that low off to our northwest will sweep through Minnesota along about Thursday the way it looks now. Doesn’t appear that this front will cause any precipitation though as it moves through. High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the single digits below to above zero on Tuesday with some teens possible West and South. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero. Highs Wednesday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with nearly steady temperatures on tap for Wednesday Night. Still appears that will see a few areas of low pressure move across the region during the Friday-Saturday time period, although there shouldn’t be much in the way of significant precipitation associated with these systems the way it looks now, so expect areas of light snow, ice, or even rain to occur later in the week and early in the weekend. Still appears that the weather pattern could favor more significant storm develop around the Plains and possibly the Upper Midwest out in the two week time frame, but there’s plenty of time to watch how that could all unfold.
Locally for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible late. Low 10 to 15. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries. Total accumulations around an inch possible. High 15 to 20. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday Night… A few flurries possible. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 2 below to 7 below. Wind northwest around 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 8 to 13.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 below to 10 below.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 30.4 degrees
Dewpoint: 13 degrees
Wind: W at 9 mph G 15 mph
Max Temperature Today: 33.3 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 69%
Min Temperature Today: 23.4 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 45%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 21 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 1 degree