Issued at 4:43 PM CST, Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009
On this date in 2005 and 1993, Duluth Minnesota tied the record high temperature of 44 degrees for the date.
Surface Analysis at 22z:
Arctic high pressure ridge averaging 1036 mb was centered over the Eastern Dakotas with a stationary front extending from Eastern Alberta to Southwest South Dakota to Western Nebraska.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
H5 low was shifting east-southeast through the Central and Eastern Great Lakes Today with an upper level trough and north to northwest flow aloft in place across the Upper Midwest. An upper level ridge of high pressure was in place across the Southwest U.S up into the Pacific Northwest. In between the upper level trough and upper level right…A strong H3 jet stream was noted per RUC model of 130 knots from the Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota down to Western Missouri. H85 temperatures around Minnesota late This Afternoon ranged from -14 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota to -20 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota. Temps aloft underneath the ridge out West ranged from +4 to +14 degrees C late Today.
Overall skies around Minnesota were partly cloudy to sunny Today with an early February arctic airmass in place as daytime high temperatures stayed in the single digits below zero over Northwest Minnesota to the single digits and low teens elsewhere. Winds across the state were out of the north or west Today around 20 mph or less.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 9 degrees at St. Paul to -4 degrees at Hallock to -2 degrees at Moorhead to 7 degrees at Bigfork to 9 degrees at Eveleth to zero degrees at Morris to 5 degrees at Litchfield to 7 degrees at Rush City to 10 degrees at Olivia to 7 degrees at Albert Lea to 12 degrees at Winona.
Tonight through Wednesday Night:
Arctic high pressure ridge will be shifting to the east and southeast of Minnesota during this forecast period. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies across the state through Wednesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday Night. Lows will be coldest Tonight with readings in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with some 30s below possible up North. Highs Wednesday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Wednesday Night holding pretty steady from the highs that occur on Wednesday. Warm advection and a wind shift to the south-southwest will occur around Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night once the surface high heads off to our east. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west generally under 15 mph. Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will turn into the south or southwest around 5 to 20 mph. Wind chills Tonight into Wednesday Morning will range from 10 below to around 30 below around Minnesota.
Low pressure will be tracking well to the north of Minnesota on Thursday. A warm front and cold front attached to this low will be tracking southeast across the state on Thursday. This system looks like it will come through dry at the moment. Another low pressure system will track across the Upper Midwest from late Friday into early Saturday, this system also looks pretty weak in the moisture department with just some patchy light drizzle, flurries, or freezing drizzle possible over parts of Minnesota from late Friday into Saturday Morning. High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the 20s and 30s Thursday and Friday with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night mostly in the teens and 20s. Looking further ahead toward late this weekend and early next week…The models Today have come into better agreement in showing the Upper Midwest getting out of a northwest flow and into a more active southwest flow pattern as a ridge begins to take shape across the Southern-Eastern U.S. and a trough sets up out West. This pattern shift is still many days away, and the forecast models could undergo changes between now and early next week, but as it stands now it appears that a pretty significant storm will head out of the Southwestern U.S. into the Plains, then up toward the Upper Mississippi Valley region early next week. Timing and strength differences as well as the exact track of this storm will be resolved with future forecast model runs in the coming days. As it stands now, this storm system could bring rain, snow, ice, and possibly even some thunder to Minnesota based on the latest storm track…Precipitation could possibly start as early as Sunday Night, but probably more likely in the Monday and Tuesday time period. After this storm passes by, another system could emerge out of the Plains around the middle or end of next week, this storm could have colder air to work with causing more of a winter storm depending of course on the intensity and track.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Mainly clear. Frigid. Low 7 below to 14 below. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Wind chills from 20 below to 30 below.
.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind becoming south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Patchy light freezing drizzle possible. Low 20 to 25.
4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 7.4 degrees
Dewpoint: -5 degrees
Wind: WNW at 4 mph G 11 mph
Max Temperature Today: 10.8 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 84%
Min Temperature Today: -9 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 53%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 21 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 2 degrees