Issued at 5:04 PM CST, Friday, February 6th, 2009
Another temperature inversion occurred in the Twin Ports early This Morning with low temperatures of 11 degrees reported over the hill at the Duluth Airport, while the low dropped to 3 degrees down below the hill in Superior. Usually the coldest temperatures at night occur up and over the hill. We’ve seen quite a few of these events here in the city this Winter.
Surface Analysis at 22z:
Low pressure averaging 1000 mb was centered over the Northeast half of North Dakota. A warm front attached to this low was over the Eastern Dakotas with a cold front stretching from Western Ontario to far Northeast North Dakota to Southwest North Dakota. Pretty decent pressure falls of 2 mb per 2 hours were found late Today over Eastern Minnesota/Western Wisconsin/and Western Lake Superior which should translate to the low off to our west moving into these areas during the next 12 hours.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
Southwest flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today with a well defined shortwave heading east-northeast through the Dakotas and Nebraska. 12 hour H5 height falls of 90-120 meters were in place near this system Today from the Dakotas down to Nebraska. Behind this system is another storm that’s currently sliding south-southeast off the coast of California. It’s this system that will impact Minnesota’s weather by early next week. H85 temperatures late This Afternoon ranged from +12 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota to +4 to +10 degrees C over the rest of Minnesota.
Warm advection and a southerly flow were in place across Minnesota thanks to an area of low pressure off to our west. Plenty of mid and high level cloudiness were in place around the state Today with high temperatures on the mild side with readings in the 30s and 40s with some 20s near Lake Superior. There’s also been some haze around the state Today along with some patchy fog at times over parts of Southern Minnesota. Winds across the state were out of the south or east at 10 to around 25 mph Today.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 40 degrees at St. Paul to 28 degrees at Warroad to 36 degrees at Moorhead to 35 degrees at International Falls to 28 degrees at Duluth to 37 degrees at Ortonville to 37 degrees at Staples to 30 degrees at Cloquet to 43 degrees at Marshall to 36 degrees at New Ulm to 41 degrees at Winona.
Tonight through Saturday Night:
An area of low pressure will be sliding across Minnesota Tonight, exiting the state to the east Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. Behind this low will be a pretty potent 500 mb trough that will track east-southeast across Minnesota Saturday and Saturday Night. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies around the state through Saturday Night. Areas of fog will occur Tonight and Tomorrow Morning over Eastern and Southern Minnesota and there’s also a chance for some drizzle or freezing drizzle over those areas I mentioned above. Some flurries or snow showers could also occur Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night in Northern Minnesota as that H5 trough moves through. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with highs Saturday holding nearly steady from Tonight’s lows. Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the single digits and teens with single digits and teens below possible across the North. Winds Tonight will be out of the south, east, or west at 10 to 25 mph. Winds Saturday and Saturday Night will be out of the west or north at 10 to 25 mph.
*Winter Storm Watch* in effect Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning for parts of Northeast Minnesota.
An area of high pressure along with a west-northwest flow aloft will control Minnesota’s weather on Sunday…This high will then head off to the east-southeast by Sunday Night as the storm moving into California attm tracks into Western Kansas by Monday Morning. As all this happens the upper level flow will amplify considerably around the Upper Midwest. The Western Kansas low is forecast to lift north-northeast, likely reaching the vicinity of Northwest Minnesota by Tuesday Morning the way it looks now. A strong 850 mb jet of 35 to around 60 knots from the south will be found out ahead of this low which will transport deep moisture and warmth north into Minnesota.
Look for freezing rain, sleet, or rain to spread into Western and Southern Minnesota Sunday Night with dry weather holding on for the rest of the state. By Monday, any mixed precip should switch to rain down South with freezing rain, sleet, and rain falling from Western through Central to Eastern Minnesota…Precipitation, especially in Central and Eastern Minnesota looks like it’ll change over to rain during the day on Monday. Northern Minnesota will likely see freezing rain, sleet, and possibly some snow develop on Monday with some rain mixing in later in the day. By Monday Night, look for areas of rain to continue down South while freezing rain, rain, sleet, and possibly some snow occurs for the rest of Minnesota. Precipitation should be tapering off from southwest to northeast by Tuesday based on the latest model guidance as the area of low pressure tracks up into Ontario Province.
The potential exists for significant amounts of ice accumulation for parts of Minnesota, with the most likely area to experience possibly a quarter inch or more of ice being Northeast Minnesota early next week. In addition to the ice threat…Rain could be locally heavy and result in a flood threat for parts of the state early next week.
Right now it doesn’t really look like this storm will drop much in the way of heavy snow anywhere in Minnesota, but a few inches of wet slushy snow could accumulate by Tuesday…Mainly from Westcentral into Northern Minnesota.
Scattered thunderstorms also remain a possibility for Monday and Monday Evening across the Southern half of Minnesota near the mid level dry slot and near the zero degree C showalter areas.
High temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s with some 30s South. Highs Monday will be in the 30s and 40s, but some spots may hold in the 20s in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with some 40s possible South.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
*Winter Storm Watch* in effect Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning…
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy and hazy. Patchy fog or light freezing drizzle possible late. Low 20 to 25. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming southwest toward Morning.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 30 to 35. Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 5 to 10. Wind northwest around 15 mph.
.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 20 to 25.
.Sunday Night… Increasing cloudiness. Low 10 to 15.
.Monday… Freezing rain, sleet, or snow developing during the Afternoon. High 27 to 32. Chance of precipitation 40%.
.Monday Night… Freezing rain, sleet, or rain. Snow may mix in at times. Temperatures holding nearly steady or slowly rising from 27 to 32. Chance of precipitation 90%.
5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 26.4 degrees
Dewpoint: 23.4 degrees
Wind: ESE at 5 mph G 9 mph
Max Temperature Today: 35.8 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 94%
Min Temperature Today: 14.6 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 53%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 22 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 2 degrees