Issued at 3:53 PM CST, Sunday, February 8th, 2009
On this date in 1991, a record high temperature of 52 degrees occurred at Duluth Minnesota.
On this date in 2001, 7.4″ of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.
Surface Analysis at 21z:
High pressure averaging 1028 mb was centered over Central Illinois with another area of high pressure averaging 1022 mb centered over Central Ontario. Low pressure averaging 1002 mb was centered over Western Colorado with a broad area of 2-4 mb per 2 hour pressure changes covering the Northern-Central Plains back through the Western U.S. A stationary front extended from Southern Manitoba through the South half of Ontario Province. A warm front attached to the Colorado low extended from Southeast Colorado through Southern Kansas to Southern Missouri. Airmass south of this warm front had dewpoints in the 40s and 50s This Afternoon with PWATS of .50″-.90″
Upper Air Analysis at 21z:
Northwest flow aloft was in place across Minnesota Today, but that will be changing soon as a large storm system heads northeast toward our area from the Rockies and helps to amplify the flow with a southwest to south flow aloft taking shape for a time around our area early this week. 500 mb trough associated with this storm was heading northeast through the Southwest U.S. attm… A huge area of mid and high level moisture per water vapor satellite imagery covers areas from the Northern Plains down through the Central and Southern Plains out ahead of this storm. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 3 PM Today ranged from zero to -4 degrees C across Northern and Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +4 degrees from Western through Central to Southern Minnesota.
Sunshine was in abundance around the state, but high level clouds were starting to spread into Western areas of Minnesota This Afternoon. Highs Today were in the 20s and 30s with a few spots down South around the 40 degree mark. Highs around 33-37 degrees occurred at Duluth Today which ended up being around 5-7 degrees warmer than I had forecasted it would be, so were definately in a milder weather pattern around the area compared to recent weeks. Dewpoints across the state were generally in the 20s and low 30s Today with some teens over parts of the North. Winds across the state were out of the south, west, or east around 20 mph or less.
High Resolution 1km visible satellite imagery This Afternoon indicates that most of Western Lake Superior is now free of ice, partially thanks to the southwesterly wind from Today…Ice still covers areas from the South Shore of Lake Superior up toward Isle Royal and points east from those areas…As winds turn to the east by early Monday, we should see this ice pack start to shift back into the Western end of Lake Superior.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM ranged from 34 degrees at Lake Elmo to 27 degrees at Warroad to 37 degrees at Grand Rapids to 34 degrees at Ely to 37 degrees at Silver Bay to 32 degrees at Wadena to 34 degrees at Brainerd to 34 degrees at Cloquet to 37 degrees at Redwood Falls to 40 degrees at Glencoe to 39 degrees at Winona.
Tonight through Tuesday:
Headlines outside of the Duluth area that are in effect from this upcoming storm are as follows:
*Ice Storm Warning* in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until Midnight CST Monday Night for a part of Northwest and Western Minnesota… *Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from Midnight CST Monday Night through 6 PM CST Wednesday for these same areas. Some cities included in these headlines are… Crookston MN… Moorhead MN… Hallock MN… And Warren MN…
*Freezing Rain Advisory* in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until Midnight CST Monday Night for parts of Northwest and Westcentral Minnesota. *Winter Weather Advisory* in effect from Midnight CST Monday Night through 6 PM CST Wednesday… Some cities included in these headlines are… Roseau MN… Baudette MN… Thief River Falls MN… Fosston MN… Bagley MN… Bemidji MN… Park Rapids MN… Detroit Lakes MN… Fergus Falls MN… Wadena MN… Breckenridge MN… And Elbow Lake MN…
*Freezing Rain Advisory* in effect from 3 AM CST Tonight until 12 PM CST Monday for parts of Central Minnesota… Some cities included in this headline are… Alexandria MN… Long Prairie MN… Morris MN… Glenwood MN… And St. Cloud MN…
*Freezing Rain Advisory* in effect from 6 AM CST Monday until 12 PM CST Monday for parts of EastCentral Minnesota… Some cities included in this headline are… Little Falls MN… Princeton MN… Mora MN… Foley MN… Elk River MN… Cambridge MN… And Center City MN…
*Winter Storm Watch* in effect for a small part of Western Minnesota from late Monday Night through Tuesday Afternoon… Some cities included in this headline are… Wheaton MN… And Ortonville MN…
Low pressure over the Southwestern U.S. This Afternoon will lift north-northeast into the Western High Plains by Monday Morning…This low will then continue to lift north-northeast reaching the Eastern part of North Dakota or Western Minnesota by Tuesday Morning. This low as it lifts into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will deepen with surface pressures falling to between 983-987 mb from Monday into Tuesday. This whole storm will become negatively tilted by Monday Afternoon into Tuesday as it moves into the Upper Midwest.
Low level jet from the south will increase ahead of this storm to 30 to 50 knots Tonight and Monday and could gust close to 55-60 knots by late Monday and Monday Night. As this occurs, a tremendous amount of warm and moist air will advect north into the area. PWATS of .50″-.75″ will overspread all of Minnesota by Monday which is very high for the time of year. 850 mb temperatures will also rise to between +2 to +8 degrees C over all of Minnesota through early Tuesday.
Precipitation Tonight should be most widespread across the Western half of the state where freezing rain develops during the night. Areas of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle could develop Overnight across Central and Southern areas of Minnesota.
Rain will be the main precipitation type across the South half of Minnesota Monday and Monday Evening while a mix bag of freezing rain and rain changes over to rain across Central and Eastern Minnesota by Monday Afternoon through Monday Evening. Freezing rain or rain will occur from Westcentral through Northeast Minnesota from Monday into Monday Night with some snow possibly mixing in later in the night out in Western Minnesota.
The heaviest round of precipitation is forecast to occur from Monday Afternoon into early Tuesday across Minnesota with the area of precip lifting generally from south to north as the deep low heads in from the west-southwest.
As the mid level dry slot spreads into Southern and Eastern Minnesota late Monday Afternoon through Monday Evening the potential exists for a few thunderstorms to develop in those areas, although right now it still appears that any severe weather would be confined to Iowa.
By Tuesday, look for a mixture of snow, freezing rain, or rain to transition to snow across Northwest and possibly Western Minnesota while areas of rain or snow continue over Northern, Central, and Eastern areas of the state. The heavier precipitation by Tuesday should be confined to Northwest areas of Minnesota, or back through North Dakota the way it looks now.
Low temperatures Tonight will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with highs Monday in the 30s and 40s with some 20s lingering near Lake Superior. Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with some 20s in far Northeast Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the 20s, 30s, and 40s.
Winds will become southeast to east across all of Minnesota Tonight and Monday with wind speeds of 10 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. Winds Monday Night will be out of the southwest or east at 10 to 25 mph.
Ice accumulations of 0.10″-0.25″ are possible by early Tuesday over portions of Western, Central, Eastern, and Northern Minnesota with ice accumulations possibly reaching 0.25″-0.50″ along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Some power outages could occur over parts of Minnesota early this week, especially if ice accumulates a quarter inch or more.
Snowfall amounts of 1 to around 4 inches could occur in Northwest Minnesota between Tuesday Morning and early Wednesday.
Low pressure will be lifting into Ontario Provice by mid-week while a new low moves quickly from the Southern Plains toward Lake Huron from Wednesday into early Thursday. Could see some snow showers or flurries over parts of Minnesota from Tuesday Night through Friday, but nothing too significant is expected at this time. The overall weather pattern will remain very active across the U.S. through next weekend, but the mid-week system and another storm later in the week or next weekend looks like they will track too far south of Minnesota to affect our weather to any great extent. Stay tuned though as these storm tracks could shift.
Low temperatures around Minnesota will be in the teens and 20s Tuesday Night with highs Wednesday in the teens, 20s, and 30s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with highs Thursday mainly in the teens, 20s, to low 30s.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
*Ice Storm Warning* in effect from 9 AM CST Monday until 12 PM CST Tuesday…
.Tonight… Mostly clear This Evening with increasing cloudiness Overnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east toward Morning.
.Monday… Occasional freezing rain possibly mixed with some sleet. Overcast. High 27 to 32. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
.Monday Night… Freezing rain or rain before Midnight, then areas of rain or freezing rain continuing Overnight. Thunder possible in the Evening. Areas of fog. Temperatures rising to 32 to 34. Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph, becoming southwest toward Morning. Precipitation chance decreasing to 50% after Midnight.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers. High 32 to 38. Precipitation chance 40%.
.Tuesday Night… A few flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Wednesday… A few flurries possible. High 25 to 30.
.Wednesday Night… A few flurries possible. Low 10 to 15.
4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 34.2 degrees
Dewpoint: 19 degrees
Wind: SW at 8 mph G 14 mph
Max Temperature Today: 37.1 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 93%
Min Temperature Today: 14.4 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 50%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 23 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 3 degrees