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2/9/09: Monday’s Weather Report/Storm Update Number 3

Issued at 3:51 PM CST, Monday, February 9th, 2009

Surface Analysis at 21z:

Low pressure averaging 981 mb was centered over extreme Southern South Dakota. A warm front attached to this low extended from Northeast Nebraska through Central Iowa with a cold front surging northeast through Central Nebraska. Strong 4 mb per 2 hour pressure falls have shifted into Northeast South Dakota down through Southcentral Minnesota late Today.

Some of the lower pressure readings as of 3 PM CST are as follows:

Winner South Dakota: 28.95″ falling

Pierre South Dakota: 29.01″ falling

Chamberlain South Dakota: 29.01″ falling

Ainsworth Nebraska: 28.94″

Thedford Nebraska: 28.96″

Valentine Nebraska: 28.91″

Upper Air Analysis at 21z:

Powerful negative tilt storm system was heading north-northeast out of Nebraska This Afternoon. The 500 mb low was located over Northern Nebraska, almost on top of the surface low. An 80 knot H5 jet max was centered over Southern Iowa and Northcentral Missouri on the southeast side of the upper low. 12 hour 500 mb height fall max of 240 meters have developed This Afternoon over Eastcentral Nebraska in association with this big storm. Minnesota is on the east side of this storm system, as a result there’s been a lot of warm air advecting into the state with H85 temperatures at 3 PM Today ranging from +4 to +8 degrees C around Minnesota. The 850 mb temperature at Duluth was up to +6 degrees C at 3 PM Today.

Today’s Weather:

An amazing and very photogenic storm system continued to deepen and lift north-northeast through Southern South Dakota late This Afternoon. A huge and well defined dry slot was lifting rapidly toward the north-northeast across Southwest into Southern Minnesota late Today with a band of heavier rain preceding this dry slot shifting quickly toward the north across Western, Central, and Eastern Minnesota as of 4 PM… The most widespread precipitation Today has been found on the north and west sides of the surface low through all but Eastern South Dakota and Northwest North Dakota, or in the deformation or trowal part of this big February storm. High temperatures around Minnesota were in the 30s and 40s Today with winds out of the south or east at 10 to 25 mph with some higher gusts. Areas of fog and drizzle also developed over parts of Minnesota Today in between the waves of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Speaking of the icing, this was confined to Northwest, Northern, and Northeast areas of the state Today where some locations picked up around a quarter inch or more of ice…

Temperatures at 4 PM around Minnesota ranged from 41 degrees at St Paul to 34 degrees at Bemidji to 32 degrees at Detroit Lakes to 36 degrees at International Falls to 30 degrees at Two Harbors to 34 degrees at Wadena to 37 degrees at Brainerd to 32 degrees at Moose Lake to 40 degrees at Rush City to 43 degrees at Pipestone to 45 degrees at Glencoe to 45 degrees at Austin.

Here’s some additional ice accumulation reports from Today:

Lancaster MN (Kittson County) 0.45″

Halstad MN (Norman County) 0.25″

2 miles Southeast of Esko MN (Carlton County) 0.05″

3 miles North of Little Marais MN (Lake County) 0.13″

Tonight through Wednesday:

*Ice Storm Warning* continues until Midnight CST Tonight for parts of Northwest and Western Minnesota. *Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight until 6 PM CST Wednesday for these same areas. Some cities included in this headline are… Crookston MN… Moorhead MN… Hallock MN… Roseau MN… Baudette MN… Warren MN… Thief River Falls MN… Fosston MN… Bagley MN… Bemidji MN… Mahnomen MN… Park Rapids MN… And Detroit Lakes MN…

*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect from Midnight CST Tonight through 6 PM CST Wednesday for parts of Westcentral Minnesota. Some cities included in the advisory are: Breckenridge MN… Fergus Falls MN… Wadena MN… And Elbow Lake MN…

*Wind Advisory* in effect until 10 PM CST for a part of Southwest Minnesota. Some cities included in this advisory are: Sibley MN… Slayton MN… Windom MN… Worthington MN… And Jackson MN…

Powerful area of low pressure around 981 mb has reached it’s peak late Today and will now begin a slow track toward the northeast through Tuesday. The low by Tomorrow will head into Westcentral and Northern Minnesota with surface pressures coming up to around 987 mb on Tuesday. The low by Tuesday Night and Wednesday will be exiting Minnesota to the north-northeast.

For Tonight, look for rain, freezing rain, or sleet at times across Western, Central, and Northern Minnesota while scattered rain showers fall at times from Southern to Eastern Minnesota. Some elevated instability will be shifting through Southern and Eastern Minnesota before Midnight as the mid level dry slot passes through…This could result in the development of a few fast moving thunderstorms in those areas This Evening with a threat for some gusty winds. Also Tonight, areas of fog some of which could be dense will continue over portions of Minnesota.

For Tuesday, look for a mix of rain, freezing rain, or wet snow across Northern and Westcentral Minnesota with precipitation switching over to snow from west to east across these areas as colder air aloft wraps into this deep low. Scattered rain showers are possible over Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota which could mix with wet snow at times.

By Tuesday Night and Wednesday, look for areas of light snow and flurries around parts of Minnesota as the low exits the state to the north-northeast by this time.

Total snowfall accumulations from Tuesday through Wednesday could reach 2 to 4 inches over Northcentral and Westcentral Minnesota with the higher end of these totals probably occurring in Northwest areas of the state.

Lows Tonight and highs Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s with temperatures falling into the 20s over parts of Western Minnesota. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s with Wednesday’s high temperatures holding pretty steady from Tuesday Night’s lows.

Winds Tonight and Tuesday will be out of the south, east, or southwest at 10 to 25 mph with wind gusts of 25 to around 40 mph. Winds Tuesday Night will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

The next storm system currently moving into the Southwest U.S. will head into the Southern and Central Plains on Tuesday, then up toward Michigan and Lake Huron by late Wednesday…This next system could result in a significant severe weather outbreak from Missouri and Illinois and points south and east from there through mid-week… This second storm still looks like it will pass far enough to the southeast of Minnesota to keep it’s precipitation to our south-east.

Extended Forecast:

Weather around Minnesota will be characterized by some spells of light snow and flurries with minimal accumulations for Thursday and Friday, it will also be turning colder with time, but no major arctic air surges are expected at this time. No big systems are expected around Minnesota through Saturday the way it looks now. May start to see the active storm track to our south creep a bit more toward the north late this weekend or next week, if that happens…Then the prospects for more significant snow or mixed precipitation could increase around parts of Minnesota… Plenty of time though to keep an eye on that situation.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

*Ice Storm Warning* until 6 AM CST Tuesday…

.Tonight… Windy with areas of fog… A period of rain or freezing rain between 6 PM-8 PM…Then scattered showers of rain or freezing rain lingering the rest of Tonight. Temperatures from 30 to 35. Wind east to southeast at 15 to 30 mph.

.Tuesday… Scattered rain or wet snow showers… Areas of fog early. Mostly cloudy. Temperatures holding nearly steady from 30 to 35. Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph, becoming south to southwest.

.Tuesday Night… Scattered snow showers and flurries. Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.

.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 25 to 30.

.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 30 degrees

Dewpoint: 29 degrees

Humidity: 99%

Wind: E at 14 mph G 24 mph

Max Temperature Today: 30.9 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 99%

Min Temperature Today: 24.6 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 74%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 23 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 3 degrees

Tim

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