Issued at 5:09 PM CST, Thursday, February 12th, 2009
Surface Analysis at 22z:
One cold front extended from Southeast Ontario back to Western Lake Superior to Southeast Manitoba with a second cold front extending from Southern Wisconsin to far Southern Minnesota to the South Dakota-Nebraska state line. High pressure averaging 1022 mb was building into Northern Ontario with high pressure averaging 1022 mb centered over Southeast Nebraska.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
500 mb flow was out of the southwest across the Southern Plains Today with the next storm system currently heading east into the Four Corners region of the U.S. The Upper Midwest is seeing more of a west to northwest flow aloft thanks to a blocking pattern in place across Northeastern Canada. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 4 PM Today ranged from -12 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to -6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota.
Snow showers and flurries have been falling most of Today across Northeast Minnesota with generally overcast skies… Snow accumulations Today have reached 2 to 2.5″ around the Isabella, Grand Marais, Gunflint Trail Lake, Silver Bay, and Finland areas. The rest of the state had partly to mostly cloudy skies Today. High temperatures were mostly in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the northwest, west, or southwest generally around 20 mph or less.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 29 degrees at St Paul to 19 degrees at Thief River Falls to 25 degrees at Orr to 27 degrees at Two Harbors to 18 degrees at Wadena to 21 degrees at Pine River to 27 degrees at Rush City to 30 degrees at Marshall to 34 degrees at St James to 32 degrees at Winona.
Tonight through Friday Night:
*Winter Weather Advisory* is in effect until Noon CST Friday for a part of Northeast Minnesota. Counties in the Duluth area included in this advisory are… Cook MN… Lake MN… And Northern St. Louis MN… Some cities included in the advisory are… Grand Marais MN… Lutsen MN… Finland MN… Isabella MN… Silver Bay MN… Murphy City MN… Two Harbors MN… Ely MN… And Crane Lake MN…
A stagnant weather pattern will remain in place through most of this forecast period as a persistent surface boundary remains in place around Northeast Minnesota. This will cause occasional snow through Friday with another 1 to perhaps 2 or 3 inches falling in some spots, especially around the Arrowhead of Minnesota. The remainder of Minnesota should be mostly dry during this period, but some flurries or a little light snow could spread into far Southern Minnesota late Friday and Friday Night as low pressure heads across the Plains. Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with some below zero readings possible mainly in Northwest Minnesota. Highs Friday will be in the teens, 20s, and low 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west around 20 mph or less.
High pressure looks to be in control of our weather this weekend before it slides off to our east early next week. Looks mostly dry across Minnesota Saturday and Sunday with sunshine becoming more abundant. High temperatures will be in the teens, 20s, and low 30s this weekend with lows in the single digits and teens below in the North and single digits and teens above zero elsewhere. By the early to mid part of next week will have to keep an eye on the next storm system that is forecast to track out of the Western U.S. into the Plains, forecast models Today are showing different solutions in regards to the surface low track with the GFS being more to the north compared to the last few runs of the EURO and GEM-GLOBAL. This low combined with a frontal boundary (more so a baroclinic zone) should lead to some snow around portions of Minnesota from late Monday through early Wednesday the way it looks now. Too early to tell if any of this snow will be heavy or not, but this system does bear watching. Also, it appears with high pressure to our north and the low off to our south…Winds will turn to the E-NE for a time around Tuesday or Tuesday Night and if temperatures are cold enough, then some lake effect or lake enhanced snow could develop along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Snow showers and flurries. Accumulations under an inch. Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Snow showers and flurries… Accumulations under an inch. Mostly cloudy. High 22 to 27. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 8 to 14. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 20 to 25.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 20 to 25.
.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 above.
5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 27.2 degrees
Dewpoint: 17 degrees
Wind: SW at 6 mph G 12 mph
Max Temperature Today: 31.3 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 92%
Min Temperature Today: 27.2 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 62%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 24 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 4 degrees