Issued at 4:52 PM CST, Saturday, February 14th, 2009
Surface Analysis at 22z:
High pressure ridge averaging 1030 mb was centered to the west and southwest of Minnesota.
Upper Air Analysis at 22z:
W/NW flow was in place around the region Today with a couple of disturbances visible on water vapor satellite imagery. The first disturbance was heading E/SE across the Southern half of Minnesota with another disturbance heading east across Central Manitoba into Western Ontario. Three more low pressure systems were seen This Afternoon on water vapor satellite imagery just offshore of the U.S. West Coast. 22z H85 temperatures around Minnesota ranged from -16 degrees across Northeast and Northern Minnesota to -10 to -12 degrees over Southern and Western areas of the state. Arctic air with H85 temps of -22 degrees C was seen per RUC model over Central Manitoba This Afternoon.
Skies around Minnesota were mostly cloudy across the North with some lingering flurries and snow showers at times. Rest of the state saw partly to mostly sunny skies Today. Highs were mostly in the teens and 20s with some spots holding in the single digits West. Winds across the state were out of the west or north around 20 mph or less.
Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 23 degrees at South St Paul to 7 degrees at Hallock to 5 degrees at Thief River Falls to 11 degrees at International Falls to 13 degrees at Hibbing to 9 degrees at Wadena to 18 degrees at Brainerd to 16 degrees at Moose Lake to 22 degrees at Redwood Falls to 26 degrees at Glencoe to 23 degrees at Rochester.
Tonight through Sunday Night:
High pressure ridge will remain in control of our weather as it slides east/southeast across our region during this forecast period. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies across the state through Sunday Night with a few flurries possible in Northeast Minnesota This Evening and possibly some snow showers or flurries over Northwest areas of the state by Sunday Night. Lows Tonight and Sunday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero with highs Sunday mainly in the teens and 20s. Winds will be out of the north or west Tonight under 15 mph. Winds on Sunday will be out of the south, west, or north around 15 mph. Winds Sunday Night will be out of the south, north, or east around 15 mph.
Cold front will develop and push S/SE across Minnesota from Monday Night through Tuesday Night. This front could bring some light snow to parts of Minnesota early next week, but amounts look minimal at this time with perhaps an inch or two at most across Northern areas of the state. A more organized area of low pressure still looks to track into the Plains come Tuesday, then deepen a bit as it heads E/NE toward the Ohio Valley around mid-week…This storm could bring some snow to Southern areas of Minnesota from Tuesday into early Wednesday, but it still appears that the heavier snowfall will remain to the S/SE of Minnesota with this system. With high pressure building into the state from the NW and low pressure passing well to our south, low level and upper level winds may turn to the NE for a time between Tuesday Afternoon-Wednesday Morning near Lake Superior, this combined with enough cold air in place could generate lake effect snow showers during that time, but will have to wait and see if surface winds maintain more of a northerly component to them which would cause any lake snow to remain east of Duluth. Temperatures look pretty cold from mid to late week with H85 temps possibly lowering to around -20 to -25 degrees C around parts of Minnesota. Pattern that appears to be setting up is one that features a colder regime around our area, this pattern once it becomes established may linger quite a while, it’s sort of similar to the upper level pattern we had around here back in late November and through most of January, it probably won’t be as bitterly cold as we had back in January, since our days are longer, but it could still get quite cold from time to time over the next week or two.
Forecast for Duluth/Superior:
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 2 below to 7 above. Wind northwest around 12 mph.
.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 13 to 18. Wind northwest around 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below. Wind variable under 12 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 20%.
.Tuesday… Flurries. High 20 to 25.
.Tuesday Night… Flurries. Low 5 to 10.
4 PM Thompson Hill Observation:
Current Temperature: 14.6 degrees
Dewpoint: 1 degree
Wind: WNW at 4 mph G 9 mph
Max Temperature Today: 17.4 degrees
Max Humidity Today: 90%
Min Temperature Today: 9 degrees
Min Humidity Today: 52%
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 5 degrees