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2/15/09: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:17 PM CST, Sunday, February 15th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 2000, 7.3″ of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date last year, the low temperature reached -20 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Here are some low temperatures around Minnesota from earlier Today, Sunday, February 15th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -2 degrees

International Falls MN: -11 degrees

Hibbing MN: -11 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -15 degrees

Ely MN: -13 degrees

Orr MN: -17 degrees

Bigfork MN: -17 degrees

Embarrass MN: -21 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -13 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -19 degrees

Littlefork MN: -15 degrees

Baudette MN: -12 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -14 degrees

Bemidji MN: -12 degrees

Fosston MN: -11 degrees

Warroad MN: -11 degrees

Surface Analysis at 23z:

High pressure ridge averaging 1030 mb extended from Northwest Iowa to Central Saskatchewan. A stationary front stretched from Central Montana to Northern South Dakota with low pressure averaging 1018 mb centered over Central Montana.

Upper Air Analysis at 23z:

Westerly flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with an H5 low centered over Central Manitoba. An upper level trough was moving into areas west of the Rockies with a pretty wound up storm per water vapor satellite imagery centered just offshore of California and Oregon. H85 temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM Today ranged from -12 degrees C in Northern and Northeast Minnesota to -8 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota. -20 to -24 degree C 850 mb temps covered areas from Central Ontario west to Eastern Saskatchewan Today.

Today’s Weather:

Skies around Minnesota were mostly sunny Today, but clouds have been on the increase across the West half of the state thanks to a warm advection pattern developing on the backside of the high pressure ridge over the area. There’s been some light snow and flurries breaking out This Afternoon across Northern, Central, and Eastern North Dakota with movement of this snow toward the east into Northwest Minnesota as of early This Evening. High temperatures around Minnesota were in the teens and 20s Today with some spots down South in the low 30s. Winds across the state were out of the south, east, or northwest Today around 20 mph or less.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 26 degrees at St Paul to 9 degrees at Hallock to 12 degrees at International Falls to 18 degrees at Duluth to 27 degrees at Wheaton to 23 degrees at Brainerd to 19 degrees at Cloquet to 33 degrees at Granite Falls to 30 degrees at Glencoe to 25 degrees at Austin.

Tonight through Monday Night:

A frontal boundary will develop into Northern Minnesota during this forecast period with this boundary turning into a cold front by Monday Night. Areas of light snow and flurries will develop near this front across the Northern half of Minnesota through Tomorrow Night with snow accumulations of 1 to perhaps 3 inches falling in some locations during this forecast period. The rest of the state could see a few passing flurries from time to time, but overall it looks mainly dry. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the state with lows Tonight in the single digits and teens with some spots in Eastern Minnesota possibly dropping a few degrees below zero. Highs Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Monday Night in the single digits, teens, and 20s. Winds will be out of north, south, or east Tonight…Then as high pressure pushes east-southeast of Minnesota Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night, look for winds to turn to the south or east across all of Minnesota. Wind speeds will generally be around 20 mph or less through this period.

Extended Forecast:

Cold front will be pushing south-southeast across Minnesota from Tuesday into early Wednesday while low pressure develops and heads into the Central Plains on Tuesday. This low looks like it will deepen a bit with pressures around 992 mb as it heads east-northeast through Wednesday. Right now it appears that the low will track south of Chicago Illinois, but a few model runs off the GEM-GLOBAL, NAVY NOGAPS, and EURO have trended somewhat more north and west with the storm track with the low passing west and north of Chicago Illinois. This will have to be watched in the next two days to see if this northern trend continues or not. As it looks now, most of Minnesota will see a little bit of snow from Tuesday into Wednesday with the higher snow totals which could top 3 or 4 inches centered over the Southern area of the state. Enough warm air may even be in place which could lead to some rain, sleet, or snow in Southern areas of the state Tuesday and Tuesday Evening. The other area that may see somewhat higher snow totals will be near Lake Superior thanks to east to northeast winds which are forecast to develop from late Tuesday into Wednesday Morning thanks to the circulation between the low passing to our south and an area of high pressure building in from the north-northwest. Checking the 1km high resolution visible satellite imagery This Afternoon shows that the Western end of Lake Superior is ice-free at the moment, but the Central and South Shore of Lake Superior…Including the Apostle Islands remain pretty ice packed…So, as surface winds begin to back toward the east-northeast we should see this ice shield push west and southwest into Western Lake Superior Tuesday and Wednesday…This may limit the lake effect snow potential, unless the ice can break up the farther east you go across Lake Superior. After mid-week, it appears that will see a fairly potent H5 trough drop south-southeast from Manitoba Province toward the Upper Midwest Friday and early Saturday…This feature could squeeze out some snow showers and flurries around Minnesota as it moves through.

High temperatures around Minnesota will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s Tuesday and Wednesday with some single digits possible on Wednesday over Northern areas of the state. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Mostly clear with increasing clouds during the night. Flurries possible Overnight. Low 5 to 10. Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Monday… Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or Flurries possible. High 22 to 27. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 20%.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday… A few snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 30%.

.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 above.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 19.2 degrees

Dewpoint: -1 degree

Humidity: 39%

Wind: WSW at 2 mph G 3 mph

Max Temperature Today: 22.8 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 88%

Min Temperature Today: -1.6 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 36%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 6 degrees

Tim

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