2/16/09: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:06 PM CST, Monday, February 16th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1999, 5.2″ of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Weather Headlines:

Huge temperature contrast in place around Minnesota Today with temperature differences of 30 to 45 degrees from South to North…

Two shots of arctic air heading to Minnesota this week.

Main brunt of the mid-week storm looks to pass south/east of Minnesota, but there remains some differences with the forecast models in regards to the storm track, so stay tuned..

Brief opportunity for lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior Tuesday Night.

Surface Analysis at 22z:

A stationary front extended from Northern Minnesota down to Northern South Dakota with low pressure averaging 1012 mb centered over Northeast South Dakota. High pressure averaging 1020 mb was centered over Southern Manitoba with a 1028 mb high centered over Southern Illinois.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

West to northwest flow aloft was in place around the Upper Midwest Today. An upper level low had moved into Northwest Ontario with a disturbance heading toward the Saskatchewan/Manitoba Province line late Today. An upper level trough was heading onshore into the Western U.S. with an H5 low heading toward Central California. 850 mb temperatures at 4 PM Today ranged from -2 to -4 degrees C over the Southwest half and Southern areas of Minnesota to -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota. -20 to -24 degree C H85 temps covered areas of Central Ontario back to Central Manitoba Today. Were seeing quite a nice baroclinic zone developing around the region Today with pretty big temperature contrasts in place.

Today’s Weather:

The boundary up in Northern Minnesota combined with much colder air near this front and much warmer air near and south of this boundary has caused some light snow and flurries to fall from time to time across Northern areas of the state Today. High temperatures Today ranged from the single digits and teens up North to the 20s and 30s elsewhere with some 40s even showing up in Southwest areas of the state. Winds across Minnesota were from the south, southwest, or north/east around 20 mph Today with gusts to around 30 mph over Southern Minnesota.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 37 degrees at St Paul to 1 degree at Hallock to 7 degrees at Warroad to 19 degrees at International Falls to 27 degrees at Grand Rapids to 29 degrees at Duluth to 34 degrees at Morris to 37 degrees at Willmar to 30 degrees at Aitkin to 32 degrees at Mora to 42 degrees at Canby to 37 degrees at St James to 36 degrees at Red Wing.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

A well defined frontal boundary centered over Northern areas of the state will begin to creep south/east through this forecast period. By Tomorrow Night, this front should be centered from Eastern to Southwest Minnesota. Low pressure will be pulling out of the Rockies and out into the Plains by Tomorrow Night as well. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies around Minnesota during this period with areas of light snow and flurries possible across the North through Tuesday with snow accumulations generally ranging from a dusting up to an inch or two. The rest of Minnesota will be dry Tonight with some light rain or snow possibly developing over Southern areas of the state on Tuesday. By Tuesday Night, look for some snow and flurries around most of Minnesota with the better chances at picking up 1 to around 3 inches of snow being confined to Northern and Southern areas of the state. Some light rain may mix in with the snow Tuesday Evening across Southeastern Minnesota. Lows Tonight and Tuesday Night will be in the single digits below zero Northwest with single digits, teens, and 20s common elsewhere. Highs Tuesday will be in the single digits and teens up North with 20s and 30s over the rest of Minnesota. Winds will be out of the south, north, or east through Tuesday and from the north or east Tuesday Night. Wind speeds will range from 10 to around 25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will deepen as it passes south and east of Chicago Illinois on Wednesday with arctic high pressure building into Minnesota from the north-northwest behind this storm. Areas of light snow and flurries are possible over parts of the state on Wednesday, then mainly dry conditions are expected from Wednesday Night into Thursday Evening. High temperatures Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with subzero temps possible for Northern Minnesota. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the single digits and teens below with some 20s below possible North. Highs Thursday will be in the single digits and teens. Could be dealing with some wind chill issues over parts of Minnesota Wednesday into early Thursday as 10 to 25 mph winds combined with cold temperatures could cause wind chills to fall into the 15 below to 30 below range. The next weather maker for Minnesota will be a pretty potent H5 low that will drop south-southeast out of Manitoba Province. This feature will pass through the region Friday into early Saturday and could bring some snow showers or flurries to the state as it moves through with another shot of late season arctic air following this late week system.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or flurries possible. Little accumulation expected. Low 20 to 25. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 26 to 33. Wind south to southeast around 15 mph, becoming east.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 15 to 20. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Snow accumulations around an inch or less.

.Wednesday… A few snow showers or flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 20 to 25 with temperatures falling through the teens.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 9 below.

.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 above to 7 below.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 29.3 degrees

Dewpoint: 16 degrees

Humidity: 57%

Wind: SW at 9 mph G 14 mph

Max Temperature Today: 30.2 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 64%

Min Temperature Today: 12.8 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 54%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 25 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 6 degrees

Tim

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