2/17/09: Weather Update

Issued at 9:10 PM CST, Tuesday, February 17th, 2009

*Winter Weather Advisory* continues until 6 AM CST Wednesday for Koochiching County MN… Northern Itasca County MN… Central and Northern St. Louis County MN… Lake County MN… And Cook County MN… Some cities included are… International Falls MN… Bigfork MN… Hibbing MN… Crane Lake MN… Ely MN… Cotton MN… Two Harbors MN… Silver Bay MN… Isabella MN… Lutsen MN… Little Marais MN… And Grand Marais MN… Still expecting 4 to around 7 inches of total snowfall in the advisory area by Tomorrow Morning. Roads will be snow covered and slippery with visibilities dropping to around a mile at times.

Low pressure was heading toward the far Southeast Nebraska-far Northeast Kansas- Southwest Iowa-and Northwest Missouri area as of 03z while a cold front has shifted south and southeast of Duluth Minnesota as of mid-evening.

Radar imagery as of 9 PM Tonight shows a band of snow mixed with some rain at times extending from Southern Minnesota to the Twin Cities, then east-northeast across Central Wisconsin. This area of precip was heading toward the E/NE and is associated with the low to our S/SW… A secondary band of snow continues to track east and slightly east of southeast across Northcentral, Northeast, and Western Minnesota… This snow is mostly associated with some lift occurring north of the cold front.

Winds at Duluth on the local VWP scan off GR3 radar is solidly out of the east-northeast at the surface here are 9 PM with east winds slightly above the surface, and a southeast wind higher up in the atmosphere. Snow started falling in Duluth between 7:30 PM-8 PM This Evening and it continues to fall as I write this. Accumulations so far have been light, generally around a half inch or less. Snowflakes at times are quite big, otherwise it’s been a pretty fine snow.

Surface temperatures in the city are in the low to mid 20s at 9 PM while temps fall into the low teens across far Northern Lake Superior. H85 temps as of 03z ranged from -10 to -12 degrees C across Central and Northern Lake Superior to around -8 degrees C at the head of Lake Superior.

Radar out of Duluth is showing a pretty decent area of snow, some of it probably lake enhanced covering areas from near Duluth up the North Shore through the towns of Arnold, French River, Larsmont, Two Harbors, and Castle Danger. Max DBZ’S have approached 25-30 underneath this snow band which is some fairly heavy snowfall.

Looking at the latest RUC model shows that the winds will remain pretty favorable in the city for the potential for lake effect or enhanced snow through Midnight Tonight as low pressure tracks across Northern Missouri or Southern Iowa during the next 3 hours. Between 1 AM Tonight and 4 AM, surface winds should start to back toward the N/NE which should begin to shut off the lake snow threat along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Snowfall totals in Duluth should reach 1 to 2 inches Tonight, but amounts could end up a little higher as is often the case with lake effect situations.

No word on if the local weather service in Duluth will be issuing an advisory for the Twin Ports, but if they do, then another update will be needed.

Here’s a few other links to check out to monitor this event…

http://http://weatherscout.blogspot.com/

http://http://nwwisconsinweather.blogspot.com/

http://http://cmlnmbs-weather.blogspot.com/

Tim