2/18/09: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:47 PM CST, Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Thursday. The following counties in the Duluth area are included in this advisory… Koochiching MN… Itasca MN… St. Louis MN… Carlton MN… Lake MN… Cook MN… And Douglas WI… Some cities included in the advisory are: International Falls MN… Littlefork MN… Bigfork MN… Grand Rapids MN… Moose Lake MN… Cloquet MN… Esko MN… Duluth MN… Cotton MN… Hibbing MN… Virginia MN… Ely MN… Crane Lake MN… Two Harbors MN… Silver Bay MN… Lutsen MN… Grand Marais MN… Superior WI… And Solon Springs WI…

Temperatures falling to between zero and 20 below Tonight combined with wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts will result in bitterly cold wind chills that will range from 15 below to around 30 below from mid-evening through Thursday Morning. Make sure to cover up all exposed skin if you will be venturing outdoors Tonight and Tomorrow Morning.

*Winter Weather Advisory* remains in effect until 9 PM CST Tonight for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin. Douglas and Bayfield… Some cities included in the advisory are… Solon Springs WI… South Range WI… Wentworth WI… Brule WI… Hawthorne WI… Iron River WI… Port Wing WI… Bayfield WI… Herbster WI… And Cornucopia WI…

Very cold airmass in place combined with favorable north winds coming off Lake Superior has caused locally heavy lake effect snow showers Today in the advisory area. Snow accumulations Today have ranged from 2 to around 7 inches. Additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible This Evening in snowbelt region of Northwestern Wisconsin. Highways 2, 13, and 53 will be snow covered and slippery in spots with visibilities falling to around a mile at times in the heavier snow showers.

Surface Analysis at 22z:

Low pressure averaging 991 mb was centered over Central Lake Erie. Low pressure averaging 992 mb was over Northeast Lake Huron. High pressure averaging 1026 mb was centered over Northeast Montana.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

Potent upper level trough has been digging south-southeast across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes region Today as a strong area of low pressure heads northeast, just ahead of this H5 trough. 12 hour H5 height falls have been around 90 meters Today across the Great Lakes region as this storm system heads toward Southeastern Canada. A late season blast of arctic air has caused 850 mb temperatures to fall to -20 degrees C from Northern to Northeast Minnesota up into Central Ontario with -12 to -14 degree C H85 temps centered over far Southern areas of Minnesota.

Today’s Weather:

A shot of arctic air has been pushing south-southeast into Minnesota Today behind a rather strong area of low pressure heading across the Eastern Great Lakes. Gusty north to northwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with 25 to 45 mph wind gusts have been observed across much of Minnesota Today with some of the stronger winds occurring in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. On a side note, the potential exists for waves to build to 15-20 feet between Marquette Michigan and Grand Island Michigan Tonight through Thursday Evening as persistent north winds continue on the back side of the low moving toward Eastern Canada. Snow associated with the low off to our south and an upper level trough coming in from the north decreased during the Morning hours with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly sunny by the Afternoon. High temperatures Today were in the single digits, teens, and 20s with wind chills as of late Afternoon generally in the single digits and teens below to above zero.

Temperatures at 5 PM around Minnesota ranged from 18 degrees at the Twin Cities to zero degrees at Hallock to 1 degree at Crookston to 9 degrees at Grand Rapids to 8 degrees at Duluth to 3 degrees at Fergus Falls to 7 degrees at Pine River to 15 degrees at Rush City to 18 degrees at Jackson to 19 degrees at Waseca to 20 degrees at Rochester.

Here are some snowfall reports around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from last night and Today…

Poplar WI (Douglas County) 4.0″

Danbury WI (Burnett County) 2.0″

Oulu WI (Bayfield County) 5.2″

5 miles South of Herbster WI (Bayfield County) 6.0″

2 miles Northeast of Duluth MN-Lakewood Township (St. Louis County) 3.2″

Brule WI (Douglas County) 4.0″

10 miles South of Superior WI (Douglas County) 4.5″

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 6.8″

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 8.0″

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 1.7″

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 4.0″

5 miles West of Two Harbors MN (Lake County) 2.3″

Lutsen MN (Cook County) 3.0″

Beaver Bay MN (Lake County) 2.0″

Floodwood MN (St. Louis County) 2.0″

Saginaw MN (St. Louis County) 2.5″

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 2.8″

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 4.0″

Tonight through Thursday Night:

*Wind Chill Advisory* is in effect from 9 PM Tonight until 9 AM Thursday for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Arctic high pressure will be in control of our weather during this forecast period with the center of the high beginning to push off toward the south/east of Minnesota by Tomorrow Night. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies Tonight and Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies across the state Tomorrow Night. Flurries or snow showers could move into Western Minnesota later Tomorrow Night as a strong disturbance approaches the state from the northwest. Low temperatures Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with teens and 20s below North, Central, and West. Highs Thursday will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. Winds will be out of the north or west Tonight through Thursday Night at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible Tonight. Wind chills will range from around 5 below to 30 below across Minnesota Tonight and Thursday Morning.

Extended Forecast:

A potent upper level trough will be tracking south-southeast through the Upper Midwest Friday and Friday Night before exiting to our southeast by Saturday. This feature will bring some accumulating snow to parts of Western, Central, and Southern Minnesota Friday and Friday Night with 1 to possibly 3 inches of accumulation expected at this time. The remainder of Minnesota will just see some flurries or snow showers with minimal accumulations. High pressure will build into the state this weekend which will result in dry conditions. Will have to keep an eye on the early to mid part of next week, as that’s when our next weather system could impact Minnesota’s weather as low pressure heads in from the west…Could be dealing with dual low pressure systems, so the forecast models will likely have difficulty on whether or not these systems phase into one low pressure center, or if they remain seperate. Either way, it appears that some snow or rain will occur around Minnesota especially toward next Tuesday or Wednesday per latest model guidance. The general weather pattern from next week through early March is one that could favor several weather systems that could impact Minnesota’s weather on occasion. The intensity of each system, and the temperature profiles will dictate just how much precipitation will occur and what type/s will fall with each storm, and the storm track will also be crucial to see what areas of the state…If any are impacted by these low pressure systems.

Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

*Wind Chill Advisory* in effect from 9 PM CST Tonight until 9 AM CST Thursday…

.Tonight… Very cold with dangerous wind chills. Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible before Midnight. Wind chills ranging from 15 below to 30 below.

.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 12 to 17. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 2 above to 4 below. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… A few snow showers or flurries possible. High 15 to 20. Chance of snow 20%.

.Friday Night… A few flurries possible. Low 3 below to 4 above.

.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 4 above.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 13.1 degrees

Dewpoint: -2 degrees

Humidity: 48%

Wind: NNE at 10 mph G 19 mph

Max Temperature Today: 21.6 degrees which occurred at 12:13 AM Today.

Max Humidity Today: 97%

Min Temperature Today: 5.4 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 48%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 7 degrees

Tim