2/19/09: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:38 PM CST, Thursday, February 19th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature dropped to -16 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Here’s some low temperatures that occurred around the area earlier Today, Thursday, February 19th, 2009.

Duluth MN: -5 degrees

International Falls MN: -28 degrees

Orr MN: -17 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cook MN: -22 degrees

Bigfork MN: -18 degrees

Pine River MN: -15 degrees

Superior WI: -4 degrees

Embarrass MN: -24 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -12 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -24 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -23 degrees

Northome MN: -15 degrees

Baudette MN: -18 degrees

Park Rapids MN: -17 degrees

Thief River Falls MN: -15 degrees

Wadena MN: -13 degrees

Bemidji MN: -13 degrees

Fosston MN: -15 degrees

Hallock MN: -17 degrees

Roseau MN: -17 degrees

Warroad MN: -15 degrees

Surface Analysis at 22z:

High pressure ridge averaging 1024-1026 mb was centered over the Plains. Low pressure averaging 990 mb was centered over Western Quebec. A stationary front extended from Southern Alberta to Eastern Montana to Southern South Dakota.

Upper Air Analysis at 22z:

500 mb heights have come up from 24 hours ago for areas west of the Rockies as an upper level ridge begins to develop out in that area…Meanwhile, a potent H5 low was centered over Eastern Canada and the Eastern Great Lakes. The Upper Midwest is once again between the upper ridge off to our west and an upper trough to our east, this has resulted in a return to a northwesterly flow aloft around the Upper Midwest. A late season brand of arctic air covered Minnesota Today with 850 mb temperatures of -12 to -16 degrees C around the state as of late Afternoon. The next weather system of interest for the Upper Midwest was currently over Northwestern Canada where 12 hour H5 height falls of 90 meters were occurring ahead of this low pressure system from Alberta to Saskatchewan.

Today’s Weather:

Lots of February sunshine was seen across Minnesota with high temperatures mostly in the teens and 20s with some spots up North holding in the single digits. Winds across the state were out of the north, west, or south around 20 mph or less.

Temperatures around Minnesota at 5 PM ranged from 19 degrees at St Paul to 1 degree at Hallock to 9 degrees at International Falls to 16 degrees at Eveleth to 9 degrees at Wadena to 18 degrees at Aitkin to 15 degrees at Rush City to 23 degrees at Jackson to 21 degrees at Fairmont to 16 degrees at Dodge Center.

Tonight through Friday Night:

High pressure ridge will be heading off to the south/east of Minnesota by Tomorrow Morning, then an area of low pressure will head south-southeast out of the Northern Plains and will pass south of Minnesota Friday Night while a strong H5 trough digs south-southeast into the Upper Midwest by Friday Night. The best forcing associated with this system will occur from Westcentral through Southcentral Minnesota where snow will develop on Friday and linger into Friday Evening before ending later Tomorrow Night. Snow ratios for this event look to range from 15:1/10:1 with the best dendritic snow growth zone passing through Westcentral and Southern areas of the state. By the time the snow ends Friday Night, a general 1-3″ of accumulation is expected for the areas I mentioned above. Northern, Central, and Eastern areas of Minnesota will see some flurries or snow showers Friday Afternoon into Friday Night with a dusting to one inch of accumulation possible in Central Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the state during this period with lows Tonight in the single digits and teens above to below zero with highs Friday in the teens and 20s. Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to above zero. Winds will be out of the west, south, or east Tonight under 20 mph. Winds Friday will be out of the south, east, or north. Winds Friday Night will be out of the north or west. Wind speeds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will generally be in the 10 to 20 mph range.

Extended Forecast:

A new area of high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest this weekend providing the state with dry conditions with some sunshine along with chilly temperatures, but now that the late February sun is somewhat stronger compared to just a month ago, it won’t feel as cold. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in the teens and 20s with some spots up North possibly holding in the single digits. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with some minus teens possible North. This new high pressure ridge over our area this weekend will begin to push off to the east by the early to middle part of next week and that’s when we could see some weak areas of low pressure begin to affect our weather, these lows combined with a possible baroclinic zone which may setup over far Northern parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest could cause some snow or rain to develop over portions of Minnesota the early to mid part of next week. Were also gonna have to watch the next batch of late season arctic air which will be building next week across much of Canada, it’s possible that some of this arctic coldness will slip south of the border and reach the Upper Midwest toward later next week, but that’s a long ways down the road and the forecast models aren’t in the greatest agreement as we head through next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 3 above to 3 below. Wind west to northwest under 12 mph.

.Friday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 15 to 20. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low zero to 5 above. Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 3 below to 4 above.

.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 15 to 20.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 4 above.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

5 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 15.3 degrees

Dewpoint: -6 degrees

Humidity: 37%

Wind: WSW at 5 mph G 12 mph

Max Temperature Today: 17.3 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 84%

Min Temperature Today: -6.3 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 36%

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 7 degrees

Tim

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