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2/19/09: Late Evening Weather Update

Issued at 10:57 PM CST, Thursday, February 19th, 2009

00z model guidance is in and the NAM/WRF has definately shifted north with the clipper track on this latest run, if this model was to pan out…Then, we could see an inch or two of new snow as far north as Duluth-Superior from late Friday Afternoon into Friday Evening, in addition to the synoptic snow is a brief opportunity to see a bit of lake enhanced snow Friday Evening as winds turn NE for a time at the head of Lake Superior. Backing up the 00z NAM is the 12z ECM forecast which has also shifted the low somewhat more to the north. The 21z SREF model is pretty similar to it’s prior 15z model run from earlier with the 00z GFS being less enthused with how far north to spread measurable snow.

The greatest threat for accumulating snow with the Friday/Friday Night system still looks to be over Western into Central, and down into Southern Minnesota. Snow totals in those areas will average 1-3″ with isolated 4 inch amounts certainly possible due to a favorable environment to support bigger snowflakes (fluffy snowfall)

In the Duluth area…It appears that 1 to 2 inches of snow could occur over Crow Wing, Pine, Burnett, and Washburn Counties with this system for late Friday and Friday Night.

I still believe will just see snow flurries here in Duluth Friday Afternoon and Night, but the latest trends off the NAM and ECM have me a bit concerned, but I’ll re-address the Friday Morning model runs to see if any changes will have to be made.

For more information on this system please check the following blogs…

http://http://nwwisconsinweather.blogspot.com/
http://http://weatherscout.blogspot.com/
http://http://dirksforecastingcenter.blogspot.com/

Tim

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