2/21/09: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:10 PM CST, Saturday, February 21st, 2009

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature reached -17 degrees at Duluth Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall reports around the area from last night and early Today…

Northeast Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin:

Duluth MN (St. Louis County) 0.9″

Sarona WI (Washburn County) 1.5″

7 miles East-Northeast of Bruno MN (Pine County) 1.0″

12 miles North of Isle MN (Aitkin County) 1.6″

5 miles Southwest of Brainerd MN (Crow Wing County) 3.0″

4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) 2.1″

3 miles Northeast of Nisswa MN (Crow Wing County) 1.5″

5 miles North of Pillager MN (Cass County) 2.5″

Trade Lake WI (Burnett County) 4.0″

Saginaw MN (St. Louis County) 1.0″

9 miles North of Cumberland WI (Washburn County) 3.0″

Central/Southern/and Eastern Minnesota:

Chanhassen MN (Carver County) 6.5″

5 miles North of Cambridge MN (Isanti County) 5.5″

Isanti MN (Isanti County) 5.0″

Forest Lake MN (Washington County) 4.8″

Minneapolis MN (Hennepin County) 4.4″-total at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

St. Cloud MN (Stearns County) 3.8″

Redwood Falls MN (Redwood County) 3.5″

Fairmont MN (Martin County) 3.5″

Milaca MN (Mille Lacs County) 3.0″

8 miles Southwest of Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) 3.0″

Westcentral Minnesota:

Moorhead MN (Clay County) 2.7″

3 miles South of Dalton MN (Otter Tail County) 3.7″

Sebeka MN (Wadena County) 2.8″

Wadena MN (Wadena County) 3.7″

Breckenridge MN (Wilkin County) 3.0″

Southwest Minnesota:

Ivanhoe MN (Lincoln County) 3.5″

Marshall MN (Lyon County) 3.0″

Windom MN (Cottonwood County) 3.5″

Southeast Minnesota:

3 miles East of Spring Valley MN (Fillmore County) 4.2″

1 mile North of La Crescent MN (Houston County) 4.7″

Stewartville MN (Olmstead County) 5.2″

Zumbro Falls MN (Wabasha County) 4.0″

Winona MN (Winona County) 5.3″

Surface Analysis at 21z:

Low pressure averaging 1005 mb was centered over Southcentral Lake Michigan…Or to the northeast of Milwaukee Wisconsin. High pressure averaging 1030 mb was centered over Northeast Montana.

Upper Air Analysis at 21z:

North-Northwest flow aloft was occurring over the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with a deep upper level trough spreading south and east for areas from the Rockies through the Plains up into the Great Lakes. Potent 500 mb low with 12 hour H5 height falls of 150 meters covered areas from Northcentral Illinois to Southern Wisconsin to Southwestern Lake Michigan with the center of that upper low near Milwaukee Wisconsin attm per RUC H5 model analysis/radar/and water vapor satellite imagery. A weak upper level ridge was centered over the Western U.S. while a new upper trough stays put just off the U.S. West Coast. Temperatures aloft have trended downward once again around Minnesota with 850 mb temps ranging from -14 to -16 degrees C statewide as of 3 PM Today.

Today’s Weather:

Scattered snow showers and flurries continued as of late Today over Southeast Minnesota on the backside of the departing surface and upper level low heading toward the Eastern Great Lakes. The rest of Minnesota was mainly dry by the Afternoon hours with skies across the state generally partly to mostly cloudy. Highs Today were in the teens and 20s with winds out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 20 to around 30 mph.

Temperatures at 3 PM around Minnesota ranged from 21 degrees at St Paul to 10 degrees at Crookston to 9 degrees at Detroit Lakes to 15 degrees at International Falls to 18 degrees at Hibbing to 9 degrees at Wadena to 12 degrees at Pine River to 21 degrees at Moose Lake to 15 degrees at Olivia to 14 degrees at New Ulm to 27 degrees at Winona. Late Afternoon wind chills around the state were running in the 10 above to around 10 below zero range.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

Cold high pressure ridge will control Minnesota’s weather for the rest of the weekend. Look for partly to at times mostly cloudy skies around the state with lows Tonight and Sunday Night in the single digits below to above zero with teens and even some 20s below possible across the North, especially Sunday Night as the ridge moves overhead. Highs Sunday will rebound into the teens and 20s with some spots North and West possibly staying in the single digits. Winds will be out of the north or west through Sunday Night around 20 mph or less.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure ridge will begin to push off to the south-east of Minnesota on Monday with a return flow of milder air developing in it’s wake. Should stay dry around the state on Monday with highs in the teens and 20s with some 30s possible Southwest, lows Monday Night will be in the single digits and teens above to below zero with highs Tuesday in the 20s and 30s with some 40s even possible South. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with some teens and single digits possible Northwest.

The period from Tuesday through Thursday will feature a strengthening baroclinic zone I.E. temperature gradient extending from Central Canada down into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A couple of lows will likely track west to east near and slightly south of this big temperature gradient during the Tuesday through Thursday time period. Each one of those low pressure systems could bring some snow, rain, or mixed precipitation to parts of Minnesota depending on there track. There’s been some agreement seen between the models over the past few days for a system to affect the North half of Minnesota’s weather from late Tuesday into Wednesday with some accumulating snow or mixed precipitation. Then, another system could target Southern/Eastern areas of Minnesota toward Thursday with some snow or mixed precip as bitter cold arctic air pours south-southeast from Central Canada down into the Upper Midwest and begins to shift the storm track farther and farther south. It should be noted that the forecast models are not in agreement after the early part of next week, and changes to the forecast may occur in the coming days. Were really gonna have to keep a close eye on all the bitterly cold air that will be building in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Province by the middle of the week, because if this cold air gets pulled into Minnesota…Then, low temps could easily drop into the 20s and even 30s below zero toward later next week and next weekend with H85 temps in the -20 to -28 degree C range during that period. That’s about as cold as it can get for this time of year. Also, if this bitter cold air makes it into the U.S., there will be a possibility for a bigger low pressure system to form and track from the Plains toward the Great Lakes ahead of this arctic surge later next week. With all the arctic air surges we’ve had to deal with here in Minnesota this Winter, it would seem pretty likely that the pattern will once again become favorable to bring more bitter cold air down into Minnesota. Lately we’ve seen the upper air pattern change quite a bit, but these new patterns aren’t able to sustain themselves for prolonged periods of time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries possible. Low 3 below to 4 above. Wind northwest around 15 mph.

.Sunday… Variable clouds. Scattered flurries possible. High 15 to 20. Wind northwest around 15 mph.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 1 above to 5 below. Wind northwest under 12 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 20 to 25.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 20%.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. Low 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Light snow possible. High 28 to 33. Chance of snow 20%.

3 PM Thompson Hill Observation:

Current Temperature: 21.9 degrees

Dewpoint: 3 degrees

Humidity: 44%

Wind: NW at 7 mph G 15 mph

Max Temperature Today: 22.8 degrees

Max Humidity Today: 93%

Min Temperature Today: 10.6 degrees

Min Humidity Today: 44%

Normal High Temperature Today 26 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 7 degrees

Tim