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2/27/09: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:04 PM CST, Friday, February 27th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1998, 1.16″ of precipitation fell at Duluth Minnesota.

On this date in 1996, 8.4″ of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin:

High pressure of 1038 mb was centered over Northeast North Dakota late This Afternoon with a northwesterly flow aloft in place ahead of this high across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Saw lots of sunshine around the area Today with this arctic high in control, but temperatures were on the cold side with readings generally in the single digits and teens. Winds have relaxed quite a bit though compared to 24 hours ago with a variable wind generally under 15 mph across the area Today.

Tonight:

High pressure will be in control of our weather which will result in clear to partly cloudy skies and another night of very cold late February temperatures. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with variable winds under 12 mph. Looking at the 1km high resolution visible satellite imagery reveals a lake effect cloud streamer just offshore of Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin as of 2301z… This area of clouds hasn’t made any progress to the west yet, and with variable winds expected to remain in place Tonight, I don’t believe this lake effect cloud streamer/snow shower activity will head west into the North Shore of Lake Superior Tonight. The only model showing any chance for lake effect snow Tonight is the 4km WRF/NMM, as this model does show this area of lake clouds/snow showers pushing west and northwest toward the North Shore Tonight.

Saturday/Saturday Night:

Southwest winds will develop as one arctic high moves away from the area while a cold front pushes south-southeast through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Afternoon and Evening… A new arctic high will build into our area by Saturday Night, once this cold front moves through. The southwest winds on Saturday will range from 10 to 25 mph with north to northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on tap for Saturday Night. High temperatures will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s Saturday with lows Saturday Night in the single digits and teens below to above zero. The wind shift to the north/northwest could cause some scattered lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin Saturday Night with light accumulations expected at this time.

Extended Forecast:

Strong arctic high pressure will remain in control of our weather through Sunday Night, look for highs on Sunday to be in the single digits, teens, and 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to above zero. A northwest flow aloft will continue across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin into early next week, but as high pressure pushes off to our east, will see a return flow develop…This could lead to some snow showers or flurries by early next week around the region, but snow amounts look pretty minor at this time. By next Tuesday, there are indications of another pretty strong high passing north/northeast of Lake Superior…This could cause winds to shift to the E/NE and with a cold airmass already in place, we could be setting the stage for some lake effect snow shower activity from Bayfield and Douglas Counties in Northwest Wisconsin through the Twin Ports, and northeast along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Long Term Forecast:

Upper level pattern looks to transition from a northwest flow to a southwest flow by the middle and end of next week, and possibly lasting through next weekend. May see a low pressure system affect Northeast Minnesota’s/Northwest Wisconsin’s weather between Wednesday Night and Friday of next week with a possibility for rain, snow, or even some ice. Over the past few days, the GFS model has even hinted at some elevated instability poking north toward Pine County Minnesota into Burnett, Washburn, and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin next Thursday, this could lead to some thunderstorm development if the instability develops. Timing, track, and intensity issues will likely change from day to day and from model run to model run in regards to this possible mid to late week storm…Stay tuned…

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior:

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Very cold. Low 5 below to 12 below. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 12 to 18. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northwest later in the day.

.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 above to 5 below. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.’

.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15.

.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 below.

.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 17 to 22.

.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday… Snow showers or flurries possible. High 20 to 25. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 10 degrees

Tim

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