4/30/09: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:40 PM CDT, Thursday, April 30th, 2009

Here are some selected rainfall totals across Northeast Minnesota from 7 AM CDT Wednesday through 7 AM CDT Thursday…

West Duluth MN: About 0.50″

Duluth MN (Airport) 0.31″

Brainerd MN: 0.45″

Grand Marais MN: 0.37″

Hibbing MN: 0.54″

Babbitt MN: 0.64″

Littlefork MN: 0.53″

Silver Bay MN: 0.67″

Floodwood MN: 0.51″

3 miles East of Orr MN: 0.46″

Hinckley MN: 0.53″

Rainfall estimates from Wednesday and Wednesday Night’s event from GR3 radar out of Duluth shows two seperate areas of somewhat higher QPF in our local area…One such area ran from Eastern Cass and Northeast Crow Wing County MN through Central and Northern Aitkin County MN through Southern, Central, and Eastern Itasca County MN into Western St. Louis County MN… This affected the cities of Crosby…Aitkin…McGregor…Palisade…Swatara…Hill City…Remer…Warba…Grand Rapids…Deer River…Wawina…Floodwood…and Hibbing… According to radar, rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.15″ occurred in those areas.

The second area of maxed out QPF from this event occurred from Eastern St. Louis County MN into most of Lake County and Southwestern Cook County in Northeast Minnesota. This affected the cities of…Tower…Shaw…Ely…Forest Center…Silver Bay…Little Marais…Wales…and Tofte… Rain amounts in this area also ranged from 0.50″-1.15″…

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Low pressure of 1002 mb has reached Lake Nipigon Ontario or northwest of Thunder Bay Ontario Canada as of 5 PM Today. A cold front attached to this low took a few hours longer to exit the Eastern part of Minnesota which led to a longer period of time spent in low clouds, fog, and a marine layer from Downtown Duluth and Superior and along the North Shore of Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota. The front finally passed through Duluth-Superior between 2PM-3PM Today which caused the surface wind to shift to the west. This helped to scour out the marine layer of air and replaced it with a brief surge in temperatures. The cold front as of late This Afternoon had moved into Western and Northern Wisconsin with a few spotty showers noted along this front as it moved through the area Today. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s…but cold air advection and cold air STRATOCU clouds are quickly spreading southeast out of Northcentral Minnesota late Today behind the surface low and cold front. 5 PM H85 temperatures ranged from +1 to +7 degrees C across our local area. Winds Today which were out of the south or east turned into the west and southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts from 25 to around 45 mph found immediately behind the cold frontal passage.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Pattern change is well underway as the southwest flow aloft which has covered the Upper Midwest over the last several days is being replaced by a west and eventually northwest flow while an active storm track sets back up from the Southern-Central Plains toward the Ohio Valley into early next week. Main interest in our area Today was the strong H5 low and trough which continued to surge east through Southern Ontario/Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region Today with 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 120 meters noted in Northern Minnesota-Southern Ontario per 5 PM RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with a possible light rain shower in Northern areas of the state. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with winds from the west at 10-20 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph This Evening.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue during this period with a new cold front moving into Northern Minnesota by Friday Night. This boundary could cause a few light rain or snow showers across Northern areas of the state Friday Night as we begin the month of May. High temps on Friday will be mainly in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the west, southwest, or northwest at 10-25 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Cold front will exit the area to the south on Saturday with high pressure then building into the Upper Midwest through early next week. Could see a rain shower or two over parts of the area on Saturday with some snow possible early in the day up North….Overall though it looks mainly dry from Saturday through Monday in our local area. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with 50s and 60s expected on Sunday. Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be mainly in the 30s but some 20s can’t be ruled out in the traditional cold spots in Northern Minnesota especially Saturday Night. The next threat for some rain around our area could come the middle or end of next week as a complex weather system unfolds with some energy moving in from the west and possibly coming up from the south. Plenty of time to iron out those details.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph This Evening.

.Friday… Variable cloudiness. High 48 to 54. Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday… Variable cloudiness. High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night… Clearing. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

.Sunday Night… Mostly clear. Low 32 to 37.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 57 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 35 degrees

Tim

4/29/09: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:55 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1991… 1.55″ of precipitation fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1989… 8.5″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Clouds were on the increase across our local area thanks to an area of low pressure of 1010 mb which was moving toward Southwestern North Dakota per 4 PM 1km visible satellite imagery. A warm front was centered over Central South Dakota with a stationary frontal boundary extending from Central North Dakota to Western Ontario Province. Warm advection and an increase in low level moisture was occurring over our area Today out ahead of the warm front and area of low pressure. This has caused areas of rain to overspread Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon with some heavier rain noted over Northern Cass through Northern-Eastern Aitkin Counties in Minnesota as of 5 PM. No thunderstorms have been reported anywhere in our area Today with no lightning strikes per NLDN data as of 4:20 PM Today, although some of the echoes currently in Northern Aitkin County look like they could start to produce some lightning shortly. High temperatures were in the 40s and 50s Today with a few spots in far Northern Minnesota around 60 degrees while mid and upper 30s prevailed from Downtown Duluth to Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +4 to +6 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds across the area were out of the east Today at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

H5 low was centered over Eastern Montana per 2130z water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough covering Southwestern Canada…Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies. Southwest flow aloft prevailed ahead of this feature across the Upper Midwest.

(Tonight)

Southwesterly 850 mb jet of 30-45 knots will continue across our area which will cause further warm advection and moist advection up in our area as low pressure remains off to our west while a warm front lifts east-northeast toward southern parts of our area. The stationary front currently to our northwest will turn into a cold front during the night with this boundary heading east into our area Overnight. Dry air which was in place across our area about 12 hours ago has moistened up nicely late Today with PWS of .60″-.90″ across all but far Northern-far Northeast Minnesota. Surface dews will also start to climb during the night with 40s spreading into most locations away from Lake Superior by Morning. Areas of rain will persist across all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight under mostly cloudy skies. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop during the night as elevated capes rise to around 100-200 j/kg and LI’S approach zero degrees C. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s while east or southeast winds continue at 10-25 mph. Winds will begin to shift to the southwest Overnight in western and southern parts of our area.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Low pressure will exit to our northeast by Thursday Night while a cold front exits Northeast Minnesota Thursday Morning and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday Afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will be highly dependent on how much sun we see. Looks like we will see at least a few hours worth of sunshine develop as an 850 mb dry slot passes overhead…But cold advection type clouds look to develop and spread south-east across Northern Minnesota by Thursday Afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s but with H85 temperatures climbing toward +10 degrees C…This could lead to a few spots especially in Northwest Wisconsin approaching 70 degrees. Again this will be highly dependent on how long the sun is out for. Could see a few showers around the area on Thursday with dry weather Thursday Night. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible Tomorrow in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and low 40s. Winds Tomorrow will shift from the south and southwest to the west and northwest. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northwest or west. Wind speeds will range from 10-25 mph during this period.

(Extended Forecast)

Northwesterly flow aloft will dominate our weather from Friday through the weekend. Result from this will be for near to below normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Occasional showers. A thunderstorm also possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

.Thursday… A few showers possible early. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. High 55 to 60. Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph during the Morning then becoming west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Low 31 to 37. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday… Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 57 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 35 degrees

Tim

4/28/09: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:01 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 28th, 2009

Weather History

On this date in 1994… 5.0″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

A very chilly start to the day across the area as skies cleared Overnight which combined with diminishing wind speeds led to a fast drop off in temperatures just before sunrise. Widespread 20s occurred throughout the area with areas of frost noted…Even below the hill in Duluth This Morning. Temperatures warmed into the 50s over most areas This Afternoon as mostly sunny skies and a wind shift to the east occurred as high pressure of 1034-1036 mb pushed off to the north/east of our area. The wind coming off Lake Superior kept temperatures in the 40s Today along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior. H85 temperatures around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin ranged from +1 to +2 degrees C as of 4 PM Today while plenty of cold air remains north of the border where 850 mb temperatures This Afternoon ranged from -2 to -10 degrees C.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft continued across our area as a ridge continues to cover the Southern Plains-Eastern U.S. while an H5 trough digs south-east across the Pacific Northwest. A 500 mb low was centered over Eastern Washington state and Western Idaho late Today per water vapor satellite imagery. This cold upper level storm system has been producing a major late season snow storm over portions of the Northern Rockies over the past few days.

(Tonight)

Expect clear-partly cloudy skies to turn somewhat cloudier Overnight with lows generally in the 30s…but some 20s are possible in far Northeast Minnesota. East winds will continue at 10-20 mph. High pressure will remain in control of our weather Tonight as it remains to our north-east.

(Wednesday and Wednesday Night)

High pressure will be centered to our northeast during this period while low pressure approaches from the west-northwest. A stationary front attached to this low will turn into a cold front while remaining west of our local area. An 850 mb jet will begin to increase out ahead of this system with speeds around 30-40 knots expected by Tomorrow Night. Look for moisture to increase as the low level jet strengthens which will begin to draw moist air up into our area. Should see some areas of showers over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Wednesday Night…But they could start as soon as Wednesday Afternoon in western-southern parts of our area. Doesn’t appear will be dealing with any thunderstorm activity with this event as elevated capes struggle to reach 100 j/kg Wednesday Night. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Highs Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s and 40s. Look for east or southeast winds at 10-25 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Low pressure along with an upper level trough will head east across the Upper Midwest on Thursday. A cold front attached to the surface low will be tracking east-southeast across our area on Thursday. Could see a few rain showers over parts of the area on Thursday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s as winds swing into the northwest as low pressure exits to our east. Looks dry Friday and Friday Night with highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. The upper level pattern still looks to transition to a northwesterly flow later this week into early next week…This will result in continued near to below average temperatures and little if any chance for rain from Friday through next Monday the way it looks now.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Considerable cloudiness. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 35 to 40. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 31 to 37.

.Friday… Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Tim

4/27/09: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:54 PM CDT, Monday, April 27th, 2009

Picked up about 0.40″ of rain here in West Duluth Sunday and Sunday Night.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

An area of low pressure averaging 1006 mb was centered over Southern Hudson Bay as of 4 PM with high pressure of 1024 mb centered over Northern South Dakota. Skies around the local area were partly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with some spotty instability type sprinkles and light rain showers passing southeast across parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the 40s and 50s with 4 PM 850 mb temperatures of zero to -2 degrees C. Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Southwest flow aloft continued Today across the Upper Midwest with an H5 ridge continuing to cover the Eastern U.S. while a new upper level trough with 90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls digs south-east through the Pacific Northwest

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as high pressure continues to build in from the west. Could see a few light rain showers or sprinkles This Evening, otherwise it will be dry through the night. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the north or northwest around 20 mph or less.

(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)

A pretty strong area of high pressure will settle into the Upper Great Lakes while a new storm system tracks through the Western U.S. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with highs Tuesday in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 30s. Winds will becoming east at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure pushes off into Eastern Canada by mid-week which will allow the system out west to track into the Upper Midwest and Plains. Could see some rain spread into our local area from Wednesday into Thursday as this system moves through. After this system passes by…It appears that the upper level pattern will transition to a northwesterly flow aloft, this looks to occur by this weekend. High temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 40s and 50s on Wednesday and Thursday with some 60s possible on Thursday across Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 30s to low 40s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. Low 35 to 40. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 31 to 37.

.Friday… Variable cloudiness. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Today 55 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 33 degrees

Tim

4/26/09: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:48 PM CDT, Sunday, April 26th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1996, a record low temperature of 19 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN…

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

A windy and chilly Spring day across the area thanks to a 1006 mb low which was lifting northeast out of Eastern South Dakota. Meanwhile an area of high pressure averaging 1032 mb was centered over Central Quebec. The pressure difference between the low to our southwest and the high to our northeast caused easterly winds to really pick up Today with wind speeds of 10-20 mph and gusts from 25 to 35 mph…especially near Lake Superior. High temperatures Today were only in the 30s and 40s with 4 PM H85 temperatures ranging from +2 to +10 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Overcast skies and areas of rain and drizzle developed and lifted southwest to north-northeast throughout the area Today. Enough cold air has been in place at the surface for some of the rain to fall as wet snow or mixed rain and wet snow in higher elevated areas along the North Shore of Lake Superior Today. The precipitation across our area Today has been developing well north of a warm front which as of late Today was pushing north toward far Southern Minnesota.

Rainfall totals Today per doppler radar out of Duluth have been heaviest across Northwest Wisconsin where .25″-.50″ of rain fell Today…Meanwhile across Northeast Minnesota, amounts have been less with generally around 0.05-.25″ of rain Today…However a few pockets of higher QPF were noted over Northeast Itasca and Southeast Pine County MN where upwards of .30″ of rain fell Today.

*Note: The models so far have been way too heavy with precipitation totals across Northeast Minnesota with this event…Although the amounts across Northwest Wisconsin seem to be matching up pretty good with what the models were forecasting.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Pattern change is complete as a broad southwest flow aloft covers the Plains between a strong H5 ridge from South Texas through the Eastern U.S. and large H5 trough over the Western U.S. An upper level low was analyzed over Southeast Idaho late Today and was moving slowly toward the south-east.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will head E-NE out of Eastern South Dakota and should reach Northcentral Wisconsin during the night. Warm front currently along the Iowa-Minnesota border should continue to lift northeast This Evening with the warm front possibly making it into southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin before Midnight. Then a cold front will overtake the warm frontal boundary later Tonight as the low exits to our east-northeast. The main area of rain Tonight looks to set-up across Northwest Wisconsin with additional scattered areas of rain across Northeast Minnesota. Some wet snow or even some freezing rain could continue at times Tonight in higher elevated areas along the North Shore of Lake Superior, but significant accumulations of snow or ice are not expected at this time. An H3 jet streak of 110-130 knots developing to our west late Today could help in producing a steadier area of rain Tonight in Eastern Minnesota so this area much like Northwestern Wisconsin could see somewhat higher amounts of precipitation Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms remain a possibility before Midnight generally over Northwest Wisconsin as elevated CAPES climb to around 250-500 j/kg and LI’S approach zero degrees C. It doesn’t look like any of these storms will become severe…But some lightning, heavy downpours, and small hail could occur in the stronger storms that develop This Evening. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with east winds turning southwest or north around 10-20 mph. Wind gusts around 30-35 mph will continue near Lake Superior This Evening.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Low pressure will be pulling away from our area during this period with high pressure beginning to build in from the west-northwest. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Monday with a few lingering rain showers possible. Dry weather is expected Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the north or west around 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will be in control of our weather Tuesday and Tuesday Night with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s. As we move from mid-week to late week will continue to see an area of high pressure off to our north while a low pressure system comes out of the Western U.S. and into the Plains. Remains to be seen how far north this system will get due to the high off to our north which may help to surpress this storm to our south. Models Today are not in very good agreement from Wednesday through Friday. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Wednesday Night generally in the 30s. Some rain is possible from mid to late week depending on how the Western system tracks once it reaches the Plains.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Windy with drizzle and fog This Evening. Some light rain possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph. Winds decreasing to 10 to 20 mph and becoming north late.

.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. High 45 to 50. Wind north at 15 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 55 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 33 degrees

Tim