Monthly Archives: May 2009

Issued at 5:00 PM CDT, Sunday, May 31st, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Low pressure of 1002 mb was moving east-southeast out of Southeast North Dakota This Afternoon while a warm front which was attached to this low lifts north-east toward Central Minnesota while a cold front moves southeast out of Western Minnesota. Strong warm air advection was occurring Today out ahead of this low and north-east of the warm front and this has helped in producing areas of showers and scattered thunderstorms Today over Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A strong southwesterly low level jet of 30-45 knots was found across our area Today ahead of this weather system which is helping to bring strong warming into our area Today. Dangerous lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours have occurred over parts of the area Today in the stronger storms. A wide range in high temperatures were observed across our area Today with temperatures ranging from the 30s and 40s near Lake Superior to the 60s and 70s from Northwest Wisconsin into Northcentral Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +2 degrees C in extreme Northeast Minnesota to around +15 degrees down around the Walker/Brainerd areas. Winds across the area were out of the south or east Today at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

The heaviest rainfall so far Today according to doppler radar rainfall estimates have been across Northern-Northeast Minnesota…Generally across Itasca…Central-Southern St. Louis…into Southern Lake County where rainfall totals of one half inch to 1.50″ fell Today…Some of these totals are probably a bit overdone due to some radar contamination, but there likely was some heavier pockets of rain that fell across parts of the area Today. Another axis of higher QPF was noted over Northeast Douglas…Northern Bayfield…Northern Ashland…and Northern Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin with rain totals per doppler radar rainfall estimates ranging from one half inch to around 1.25″.

Note: There were some reports of mixed precipitation across Northeast Minnesota at times Today per hourly surface observation reports…

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow continued across the Upper Midwest Today with a strong upper level low centered over Central Quebec while a new disturbance spreads south-east out of Western Ontario-Southern Manitoba. An area of 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls were noted This Afternoon per RUC model analysis near the disturbance over Manitoba.

(Tonight)

The low analyzed around the Fargo-Moorhead area This Afternoon will continue to move east-southeast This Evening and will exit to our area to the south-east later Tonight. A cold front attached to this low will swing southeast through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. A brief rise in instability and moisture will move into Cass/Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties in Minnesota before 9 PM Tonight with CAPES rising to around 500 j/kg with LI’S around zero to -2 degrees C along with Lapse Rates around 7.0 c/km… 0-6 KM Bulk Shear of 50-60 knots with H85 winds from the SW at 30-40 knots combined with H5 winds from the NW around 40-50 knots will be found across those areas I mentioned above through mid-Evening. Dewpoints will climb into the 40s to low 50s through mid-Evening while PWS increase to 1.00″-1.20″… An area of severe thunderstorms did erupt around 4 PM Today across Crow Wing County in Eastcentral Minnesota on the nose of the higher instability currently in Westcentral Minnesota. These storms were moving across Aitkin County as of 515 PM CDT but were decreasing rather quickly as they had farther south-east. A couple more thunderstorms which could be strong to possibly severe may develop through 9 PM CDT Tonight across Crow Wing/Southern Cass/and Aitkin Counties in Northcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota with hail and high winds being the primary hazards. The rest of the area could see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms This Evening. By later Tonight any lingering shower risk should be confined to Northwestern Wisconsin. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north-northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

A northwest flow aloft will continue across our area during this period with one system exiting to our south-east while a new disturbance takes shape to our northwest. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few showers possible at times mainly across Northern Minnesota. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 40s. Winds will be out of the north, northeast, or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Monday’s disturbance will continue to track across our area on Tuesday with a possibility for a couple of showers…Then a rather strong area of high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest as this disturbance departs by Tuesday Night and Wednesday. This high will then settle east making way for another cold frontal passage which looks to occur sometime between Thursday or Friday. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of this front later this week depending on the quality of moisture and instability. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tuesday Night in the 30s and 40s with some 20s possible in Northeast Minnesota. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. A significant push of cool air may then push into the Upper Midwest toward Friday or next weekend…But the forecast models Today are not in the best agreement as we approach later this week and next weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm ending before 10 PM…Mostly cloudy skies. Low 35 to 40. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph…Becoming northeast.

.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Variable cloudiness. High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday… Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 45 degrees

Tim

Issued at 2:45 PM CDT, Saturday, May 30th, 2009

Here are the local storm reports from Friday, May 29th, 2009. Data provided by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.

Askov MN (Pine County) 0.75″ diameter hail at 450 PM CDT

Buhl MN (St. Louis County) 1.00″ diameter hail at 705 PM CDT (Quarter to dime size hail)

Cherry MN (St. Louis County) 0.75″ diameter hail at 710 PM CDT

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota.

*Freeze Warning* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Sunday for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included:

Central and Northern St. Louis MN…Northern Lake MN…Northern Cook MN…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Iron WI…Sawyer WI…and Price WI.

High pressure will move into the region Tonight which will result in diminishing winds and mainly clear skies. An unusually cold and dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s to low 30s in the warning area Overnight Tonight. Take the necessary precautions to protect plant life.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*Frost Advisory* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Sunday for parts of Northcentral…Northeast…and Eastcentral Minnesota…and parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included:

Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…Northern Cass MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…Carlton MN…Southern St. Louis MN… Douglas WI…Burnett WI…and Washburn WI…

High pressure will move into the region Tonight which will result in mainly clear skies and diminishing winds. An unusually cold and dry airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s across the advisory area Overnight Tonight. These weather conditions will result in areas of frost Overnight. Take the necessary precautions to protect plant life.

A frost advisory means frost is likely. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

High pressure of 1016 mb was centered along the Southern North Dakota-Northern South Dakota state line as of mid-Afternoon while low pressure of 1000 mb heads into Eastern Canada. Cold advection and gusty northwesterly winds occurred across our area Today between those two features. High temperatures were in the 50s and 60s for most areas Today with the northwest winds blowing at 15 to around 30 mph. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from +1 to +5 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with very cold H85 temps of -2 to -10 degrees C lurking just to our north-northeast This Afternoon. Meanwhile off to our west from the Central Dakotas through the Northern Rockies into Southern Alberta and Southern Saskatchewan it’s a whole different story as another bubble of very warm air with H85 temps of +12 to +20 degrees C were found This Afternoon with surface temps soaring through the 80s across the Northern Rockies Today. Also of note Today is the extremely dry airmass in place across our area as seen by the dewpoints which were only in the teens and 20s This Afternoon with PWS of just 0.20″-0.30″!

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Northwesterly flow aloft was in place once again Today across the Upper Midwest with an unusually strong (522 meter) H5 low tracking south-east across Central Ontario Province. Impressive 120-180 meter 12 hour H5 height falls were noted This Afternoon near this upper low per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

A chilly night is on tap as high pressure and very dry air combined with diminishing winds allow low temperatures to nose dive through the 20s and 30s for most areas. Widespread frost and a possible killing freeze is expected over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Morning. Northwest winds at 10-25 mph through mid-Evening will decrease to under 15 mph Overnight with winds becoming more variable in direction later Tonight.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

High pressure will be shifting east out of our area on Sunday which will make way for an area of low pressure which was currently over the Southwest half of Saskatchewan. This low is forecast to drop south-east into the Upper Midwest by Sunday Afternoon and Evening. A warm front attached to this low will be lifting north-east and should make it toward the southern parts of our area Sunday Afternoon and early Evening before the low departs to the southeast later Sunday Night which will drag the warm front with it.

Strong warm advection will spread southwest to east-northeast across most of our area on Sunday out ahead of this low and warm front with a 30-45 knot low level jet persisting through the day. Moisture will also increase on Sunday but since our airmass is so dry at the moment I have a feeling that the models are overdoing the moisture return across our area come Sunday Afternoon-Evening. The models Today show dewpoints climbing into the upper 40s to low and mid 50s across most of our area by Sunday Afternoon…Keep in mind that our dews as of This Afternoon were only in the teens and 20s. PWS of .30″-.40″ are forecast to rise to .75″-1.00″ by Sunday Afternoon. Again I believe the models are too aggressive in bringing these higher dews up into our area on Sunday. Dewpoints climbing into the 40s seem somewhat more achievable than the 50s. The combination of the warm advection and moisture advection running into the very dry/cool air left behind from Today’s area of high pressure will likely give way to quite a bit of cloudiness across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with scattered showers expected to develop as well.

There’s still a chance for some thunderstorms too from Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Evening…mainly from Crow Wing…Aitkin…and Pine Counties in Minnesota and along and south of a line from Siren to Spooner to Hayward Wisconsin. Severe weather should remain west and south of our local area though the way it looks now. But will have to keep an eye on those areas I mentioned above since shear will be running high but the lack of sufficient moisture and instability this far north should keep these storms below severe limits the way it looks now.

By Sunday Night some lingering showers are possible across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with an isolated thunder threat persisting at least into Sunday Evening…mainly over Northwest Wisconsin.

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs on Sunday in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior as well as in far Northern Minnesota with 60s and 70s expected over western and southern parts of our area. It’s possible that some locations in the Arrowhead of Minnesota won’t get out of the 30s on Sunday. Lows Sunday Night will be mainly in the 40s. Look for south or east winds on Sunday at 10-25 mph with south, north, or northwest winds Sunday Night at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

It appears that will have quiet weather across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday through Wednesday of this coming week as high pressure builds back into our local area. Will have to keep an eye on Monday Night and Tuesday Night for a scattered frost threat once again, but this will hinge upon wind speeds and the amount of clouds that could be overhead during those times. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 30s and 40s. Looks like we could warm up rather nicely on Thursday before another shot of what looks to be some unusually cool temperatures spreads back into the Upper Midwest later next week behind a cold front which looks to pass through sometime Thursday or early Friday. Again timing of all this could change since the flow aloft will continue to be out of the northwest through next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*Frost Advisory* in effect from Midnight CDT Tonight until 7 AM CDT Sunday.

.Tonight… Clear and cold. Areas of frost developing Overnight. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph decreasing to under 12 mph and becoming variable Overnight.

.Sunday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55 but in the 40s near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming north at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Issued at 2:59 PM CDT, Friday, May 29th, 2009

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota:

*Freeze Watch* in effect late Saturday Night for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin…

Counties included:

Central and Northern St. Louis MN…Northern Lake MN…Northern Cook MN…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Iron WI…Sawyer WI…and Price WI…

High pressure will build into our area Saturday Night this combined with diminishing winds will result in a rapid drop in temperatures across parts of the area late Saturday Night. Low temperatures are forecast to reach or fall below 32 degrees which could result in frost and a hard freeze over portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin…away from Lake Superior.

A freeze watch means sub-freezing temperatures are possible. These conditions could kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found across our local area Today with high temperatures somewhat cooler compared to Thursday but still not too bad for late May. Highs Today were generally in the 60s to low 70s but some locales in Northern Minnesota dropped into the 50s at times This Afternoon as a few spotty rain showers have been tracking east-southeast across those areas. Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest around 10-20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon is rather messy with a developing surface trough/cold front across Northwest Minnesota while an area of high pressure of 1016 mb begins to shift south-east of our local area.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a ridge of high pressure covering the Western U.S. while an upper level low continues to spin around over the Northern Manitoba/Hudson Bay area. A fairly potent disturbance rotating around that low was dropping south-east through Southern Manitoba This Afternoon with a decent area of 2 mb/2 hour pressure falls noted as of mid-Afternoon over Northwestern Minnesota ahead of this feature.

(Tonight)

The surface trough and cold front currently developing in Northwest Minnesota will drop southeast across our area This Evening with the boundaries then exiting to our south-southeast Overnight. The atmosphere along and ahead of this system will be characterized by dewpoints in the 30s and 40s with PWS around 0.50″. CAPES through the Evening hours will range from 250-750 j/kg with LI’S of zero to around -3 degrees C. Lapse Rates will range from 7.0-9.0 c/km. This combined with some lift provided by the disturbance dropping southeast out of Southern Manitoba should cause showers and thunderstorms to become somewhat more numerous during the Evening hours across Northcentral/Northeast/and Eastcentral Minnesota with the threat for precipitation ending across Minnesota between 10PM-Midnight…but a risk for a few showers or isolated thunderstorms should continue until around 2-3 AM across parts of Northwestern Wisconsin. A couple of the storms through 10 PM could become quite strong…possibly even reach severe levels since we do have strong shear of 40-60 knots in place along with fast NW winds aloft of 45-65 knots. Also the upper level temperatures are rather chilly with readings mainly in the 20s below zero C so this could lead to the development of some hail generally around one quarter to one half inch in diameter along with gusty winds up to 40 mph. Locally heavy downpours and dangerous lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm that develops This Evening. Storm movement should be mainly toward the southeast or east-southeast. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 40s with some 30s possible North. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

High pressure will build into our area during this period which will result in a rather breezy day on Saturday with northwest winds of 15-30 mph. Look for partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies with daytime highs in the 50s and 60s. Clear-partly cloudy skies will continue Saturday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s but some 20s are possible in Northeast Minnesota. Scattered frost could develop later Tomorrow Night over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin away from Lake Superior. Winds Tomorrow Night will decrease to 5-15 mph while shifting from the northwest to the east-southeast.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will shift east out of our area on Sunday while an area of low pressure moves in from the Northern Plains. A cold front attached to this low will drop southeast through our area by Sunday Night while a warm front also connected to this low attempts to lift north-east into southern parts of our area Sunday Afternoon-Evening. Looks like will see some showers around Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night with any thunderstorm activity being confined to areas along and south of a Walker to Duluth to Bayfield line Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening. Although I think the better threat may end up being toward Crow Wing County near the Brainerd/Fort Ripley areas. Doesn’t appear that any severe weather would affect our local area later this weekend…That threat should remain over Westcentral through the Southern half of Minnesota the way it looks now. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with highs ranging from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior and across Northern Minnesota to the 60s and 70s from Walker to Brainerd toward Hinckley and Pine City and across most of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s with partly-mostly cloudy skies with a lingering threat for some showers…with thunderstorms still possible across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota…especially Sunday Evening. The early to mid part of next week finds strong high pressure building back into our area while an active frontal boundary sets up to our south. Looks dry from Monday through Wednesday of next week for our area with near to below normal temperatures expected.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible before Midnight. Low 40 to 45. Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph then shifting back to the northwest at 10 to 20 mph Overnight. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday… Breezy. Mostly sunny. High 60 to 65 Inland and 65 to 70 near Lake Superior. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest decreasing to 10 to 20 mph during the Evening. Wind becoming variable under 10 mph Overnight.

.Sunday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.

.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Issued at 5:21 PM CDT, Thursday, May 28th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

After a few days of clouds and rather cool temperatures…Today featured a return to gorgeous Spring weather across our area with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures mainly in the 70s with a few locations nearing 80 degrees This Afternoon! 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM CDT ranged from +10 to +12 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Weather map late This Afternoon features a 1004 mb low centered over Lake Huron with a weak cold front passing southeast through Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

An H5 ridge covered the Western U.S. with a fast west-northwest upper level flow now beginning to develop across the Northern Plains as the upper trough which was over the Great Lakes on Wednesday heads toward Eastern Canada and is replaced with another H5 low which was centered over Western Hudson Bay/Northern Manitoba Today 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 90 meters were located just north of Minnesota Today to the south-southeast of this upper low. A couple of disturbances are rotating around this upper low and those features will be affecting our weather to some extent through Friday Night.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies with lows generally in the 40s but some 30s are possible in the traditional cold spots in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west around 5-15 mph. There is a possibility for a couple of showers Tonight, but nothing heavy or widespread is expected at this time.

(Friday and Friday Night)

Northwest flow aloft will continue during this period with colder upper level temperatures dropping south into our area as 500 mb temps fall into the 22 to 26 below zero C range. This combined with some lift provided by a disturbance which will drop south-east across our area could lead to the development of a few showers or thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and Friday Night across our area. Moisture will be a limiting factor as dewpoints will struggle to stay in the 40s while PWS will be around one half inch. CAPES should climb to 200-500 j/kg while LI’S fall to zero to around -2 degrees C. Lapse rates will be steep with values around 7.0 c/km while winds aloft will be quite strong with northwest 500 mb winds of 40-50 knots. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear per 15z SREF model from Today is forecast to be around 40-60 knots across our area with Effective Bulk Shear around 30 knots. A few of the storms that manage to develop around our area Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening could become quite strong with the cold air aloft and decent shear in place, but the lack of sufficient moisture should keep these few and far between. Gusty winds and hail along with some dangerous lightning will be possible in the stronger storms. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 40s. Look for west, southwest, or northwest winds during this period at 10-20 mph while skies vary between partly sunny and mostly sunny on Friday and partly to mostly cloudy Friday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

Looks dry across the area Saturday and Saturday Night with high pressure moving into the Upper Midwest behind Tomorrow’s disturbance. Expect partly cloudy-sunny skies on Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s with a few locales reaching the low 70s especially in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s but some 20s can’t be ruled out in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. By Sunday and Sunday Night will see the area of high pressure pull off to our east which will cause warm and some moist advection to increase across our area on southerly winds as an area of low pressure…warm front…and cold front track across the Upper Midwest. Right now it doesn’t appear that the actual warm front will make it this far north…But we will be affected by the cold front which looks to pass through Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Night. Look for more clouds across the area later this weekend compared to Saturday with the possibility for some showers as well with a threat for a few thunderstorms…mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Still looks like any severe weather later this weekend would develop south of our area closer to the warm front and where a better push of warm/moist/unstable will be located per latest model guidance. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with some 70s possible in the Cass/Crow Wing County areas. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 to 25 mph before 8 PM.

.Friday… Partly to mostly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible after 3 PM. High 66 to 71. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening…Otherwise variable cloudiness. Low 40 to 45. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night… Showers possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 63 to 68.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 27th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Overcast skies continued over most of the area Today with some rain affecting Southern Sawyer…Price…and Southern parts of Ashland-Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin Today as low pressure of 1004 mb moves through Southern Lake Michigan. There are some hints that some partial clearing was starting to occur as of mid-Afternoon generally over far Northern Minnesota and also along the North Shore of Lake Superior as drier air starts to filter south into our area behind the Lake Michigan low. Temperatures This Afternoon were running in the 40s and 50s with 3 PM 850 mb temperatures of +4 to +6 degrees C across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10-20 mph.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Shortwave trough continues to lift northeast into the Great Lakes This Afternoon with the deformation type rain area affecting Southcentral Minnesota into Northcentral Wisconsin Today on the north and northwest side of the surface and H5 lows.

(Tonight)

Mostly cloudy skies should prevail through the night across Northwest Wisconsin with areas of rain continuing at least before Midnight from Sawyer into Price and Iron Counties as low pressure continues to lift slowly toward the north-east into the Eastern Great Lakes. Look for some partial clearing over Northeast Minnesota during the night as high pressure builds east out of the Northern Plains. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s but some 30s are possible across Northern Minnesota where some clearing should occur Tonight. Winds will be out of the north, east, or southwest around 15 mph or less.

(Thursday and Thursday Night)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with milder high temperatures expected on Thursday as we should see high temperatures reach the 60s and 70s along with northwest or west winds at 10-20 mph. We will see a cold front drop southeast across our area during this period and there is a chance that some showers could develop along and north of this cold front by Thursday Night…mainly affecting Northcentral areas of Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s with northwest or west winds continuing around 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Some changes continue to take place during the extended portion of the forecast. Looks like we could see a few showers or thunderstorms develop over parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Friday and Friday Night as a northwest flow aloft combined with colder H5 temperatures falling into the -20s below zero combine with some surface warming and a surface trough and upper disturbance to possibly kick off some isolated to scattered convection across our local area. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies Friday and Friday Night with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows in the 30s and 40s. A stronger push of cool air then looks to settle south into our area this weekend as the disturbance affecting our weather on Friday exits to our south and east and grabs hold of some pretty chilly air which will be gathering over Central Canada later this week. It does look dry though for Saturday and Saturday Night with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s…but some 20s and areas of frost could occur over parts of Northern Minnesota Saturday Night as high pressure moves overhead. This high will then shift east by Sunday with low pressure approaching from the west. Sunday could end up being a cool/overcast day as strong warm air advection to our west and southwest tries to build northeast into our area where much cooler and drier air will be found. This whole process could also lead to some rain showers over parts of our area later this weekend…but right now it doesn’t appear will be dealing with much if any thunderstorm activity this far north.

Note: Present indications per long range forecast models indicate that June will start on the coolish side over the Upper Midwest with another possible frost threat sometime early next week if current model projections come true.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy with some clearing developing. Low 37 to 43. Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming north to northeast Overnight.

.Thursday… Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. High 70 to 75. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 60 to 65.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday… Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 50 to 55. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim