Issued at 3:22 PM CDT, Saturday, June 27th, 2009
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A strong area of low pressure averaging 996 mb was centered over the Southwest portion of Ontario Province as of 2 PM with a strong cold front extending from Northeast Minnesota through Western Wisconsin. Airmass along and ahead of this front was characterized by widespread low cloudiness Today with dewpoints generally in the 60s with 850 mb td’s of +12 to +16 degrees C with PWS of 1.50″-1.70″. The clouds have kept temperatures generally in the 60s and 70s This Afternoon which has kept CAPES generally under 500 j/kg. Result from all this has been for a broken line of showers with some heavy downpours and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two along the cold front across Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota This Afternoon. As the cold front passes by…skies become partly-mostly sunny with gusty west winds at 15-30 mph with somewhat drier air advecting in behind the cold frontal boundary.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
A strong upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour H5 height falls continued to spread through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with the dry slot associated with this wound up storm system progressing quite rapidly toward the east-northeast from Westcentral Minnesota.
Low pressure will deepen to around 991 mb during the night as it remains over Southern Ontario Province. The potent upper level trough over the Dakotas This Afternoon will continue to push south-east into our area Tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue in far Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin before 7 PM Tonight as the cold front attached to this low continues to push north-east through those areas. Meanwhile scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing over the Dakotas This Afternoon under the cold H5 trough could make a move toward the western-southern parts of our area before Midnight with a threat for a few showers or thunderstorms generally over Cass and Crow Wing counties in Minnesota before this activity dissipates toward the late Evening hours. Otherwise expect partly-mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will become southwest or west and will increase to 15-30 mph.
(Sunday and Sunday Night)
Strong low pressure at the surface and aloft will be located to our northeast during this period with gusty west winds at 15-35 mph continuing across our area on the back side of this storm. Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies during this period with shower chances confined to mainly Northern areas of Minnesota both Sunday and Sunday Night… Highs Tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.
Looks like our upper level pattern will be going back to a more persistent north or northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest through most of next week and possibly beyond this time as upper level ridging heads back into the Western U.S. while to our east we see one if not more cut-off lows take shape over the next week… This type of pattern is generally dry for our area and is not favorable for any sort of severe weather outbreaks with even general thunderstorm activity hard to come by with this type of upper level pattern.
Low pressure will continue to sit and spin over the Great Lakes region through at least Tuesday of next week which will keep our area locked in a cooler northerly flow aloft. The chilliest day appears to be on Monday when high temperatures will only reach the 50s and 60s across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin thanks to extensive cloudiness and H85 temperatures which are forecast to drop to +2 to +6 degrees C across our local area…Pretty unusal to see 850 mb temps that low this time of year. Low temperatures Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Could see some drizzle or areas of showers as well over parts of the area especially on Monday. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and low 70s with some 50s possible in far Northeast Minnesota. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Expect partly-mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday and Tuesday Night.
No real big warm ups can be expected across our neck of the woods as long as we see this N-NW H5 flow stay in place… Temperatures for the most part will be at or below normal levels as we move into early July.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Variable cloudiness. Low 53 to 58. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Sunday… Windy. Variable cloudiness. Showers possible late. High 70 to 75. Wind west at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Sunday Night… Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 50 to 55. Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 47 to 52.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 46 to 51.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees