Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 30th, 2009
Widespread frost and a hard killing freeze occurred over most of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin early This Morning. Here are some low temperatures from Today, Wednesday, September 30th, 2009. Data provided by the NWS, Duluth, Minnesota.
Embarrass MN: 20 degrees
Babbitt MN: 23 degrees
Hibbing MN: 23 degrees
3 miles East of Orr MN: 24 degrees
3 miles South of Tower MN: 25 degrees
Grand Marais MN (Airport) 25 degrees
Silver Bay MN: 25 degrees
Ely MN: 27 degrees
Cook MN: 27 degrees
International Falls MN: 28 degrees
Cloquet MN: 28 degrees
Grand Rapids MN: 32 degrees
Duluth MN (NWS) 33 degrees
Duluth MN (Airport) 36 degrees
Sky Harbor MN: 37 degrees
Hayward WI: 22 degrees
3 miles North of Butternut WI: 25 degrees
Sarona WI: 26 degrees
Phillips WI: 27 degrees
Superior WI: 28 degrees
Upson WI: 28 degrees
Solon Springs WI: 28 degrees
Ashland WI: 29 degrees
Bayfield WI: 32 degrees
Note: Going into Today, the average monthly temperature for September 2009 was 62.7 degrees at the Duluth Airport. Warmest September on record is 62.6 degrees which was set in 1897. It does not appear that we will break the all time warmest September on record, but September 2009 will likely rank 2nd or 3rd warmest of all time. Precipitation wise we picked up 1.40″ of rain during September which is well below our average of 4.13″.
-Gusty east winds to linger through Friday Evening
-Strong Western storm to bring some rain to parts of our area starting on Thursday
-Numerous winter storm warnings/advisories have been issued for the Northern Rockies/Western South Dakota area due to this storm
-Another storm possible the early or mid part of next week
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Sunshine was in abundance across most of our area Today with some lake clouds passing overhead near Lake Superior. Highs Today were in the 40s and 50s with 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranging from +3 to +6 degrees C. A very dry airmass continued to sit over our area Today with dewpoints generally in the 30s to near 40 degrees with Afternoon PWS under 0.40″. Winds Today were out of the east at 10-20 mph. Surface map as of 3 PM featured high pressure of 1026 mb centered over Northwest Ontario Province with a high pressure ridge of 1018-1022 mb extending from Central Lake Superior to Northern Alabama. Low pressure centers of 995-997 mb were located over the Western High Plains/Northern Rockies with widespread 2-3 mb/2 hour pressure falls occurring This Afternoon across the Northern-Central Plains into the Upper Midwest.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
Very cold H5 trough (558 meters) with -28 degree C upper level temperatures covered the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest Today with strong 60-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring Today across the Northern and Central Plains west to the Rockies in association with this Autumn storm. Strong H5 low (546 meters) was centered over Central Quebec Province This Afternoon with an upper level trough in place across Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. In between the troughs out west and out east was an upper level ridge which covered parts of the Upper Midwest Today.
Clear-partly cloudy skies are expected across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with areas of frost developing late…especially across Northwest Wisconsin. Strong high pressure will be centered to our northeast while low pressure remains over the Western High Plains region. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s to low 40s but some 20s are possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and perhaps in extreme Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the east at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
(Thursday and Thursday Night)
Strong low pressure will be centered over Nebraska and South Dakota during this period while high pressure remains off to our northeast. The pressure difference between these two features will result in some gusty easterly winds across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday Night. 850 mb wind speeds are forecast to increase to 30-45 knots during this period and this should result in 15-25 mph sustained wind speeds with gusts of 30-40 mph. Some of the strongest winds could set-up near Lake Superior with near gale force wind gusts possibly developing on Western Lake Superior by Thursday Evening.
The low to our southwest will try to pull some deeper moisture up into our area but at the same-time the high to our northeast will bring drier air southwest into our area. How far north will the rain shield set-up during this period is the big question right now with the 12z NAM/WRF more south compared to the 12z GFS/UK models…although the latest 18z NAM/WRF model has trended slightly more north with the rain band compared to it’s 12z run.
Right now it would appear that the better chance for rain will occur south and west of a line from Cass Lake Minnesota to Moose Lake Minnesota to Phillips Wisconsin with the Iron Range and Arrowhead of Minnesota staying dry through Thursday Night. It will take a while for the rain to reach into our area…but it should do so from south to north Thursday Afternoon or Thursday Evening in Western-Southern portions of our local area. Highs Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with a few locales possibly near 60 degrees. Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Strong low pressure is forecast to track from Iowa to Lake Michigan during the Friday-Saturday time frame. Some rain occurring on the north and eventually northwest side of this low will impact Northwest Wisconsin and parts of Eastcentral Minnesota for Friday and Saturday. Also it appears that some lake effect rain showers will develop and affect portions of the North and South Shore of Lake Superior from Friday into Saturday as colder 850 mb temps develop and come into contact with milder temperatures over Lake Superior. Favorable E-NE winds which will veer more northerly by Saturday will also help in producing some lake effect rain showers near Lake Superior during the Friday-Saturday time frame. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.
Looks like most of our area will have dry conditions for Sunday and Monday before the next large Western U.S. trough and area of low pressure push out into the Plains. Differences in the track of the low and the overall timing of this system does exist Today with the long range forecast models…but right now it does appear that almost all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will see some rain out of this storm during the early to mid part of next week.
Temperatures behind this storm could become cold enough and that combined with lowering 500 mb heights and colder H85 temps could result in some snow shower/snow flurry activity at times as we move into late next week or next weekend across parts of our area. GFS long range model continues to show this trend Today…although it could still change since it’s over a week away.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Scattered lake clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Low 37 to 42. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Windy. Mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55. Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible.
.Thursday Night… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 38 to 43. Wind east at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph possible. Chance of rain 30%.
.Friday… Windy. Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain possible. High 45 to 50. Wind east to northeast at 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible. Chance of rain 40%.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 37 to 42. Chance of rain 40%.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.
Normal High Temperature Today 59 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 40 degrees