10/31/09: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:52 PM CDT, Saturday, October 31st, 2009

*Don’t forget to fall back one hour…Turn your clocks back one hour Tonight!

***Happy Halloween to everyone, have a safe and fun time Tonight***

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with some passing flurries, sprinkles, and snow showers at times but little if any accumulations were reported. Highs Today were in the 30s and lower 40s with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranging from -4 to -5 degrees C. Winds were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. Surface map as of 4 PM features an intense area of low pressure centered in Northeast Canada with low pressure of 996 mb centered over the Eastern Alberta-Western Saskatchewan Province area with a warm front attached to this low centered over the Western Dakotas.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest flow aloft was in control across the Upper Midwest on this last day of October 2009. Axis of the powerful winds aloft which were over our area 24 hours ago have shifted into Eastern Canada Today along with intense 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 150-240 meters! Note: At one point last night height falls reached 270 meters over portions of the Upper Midwest as low pressure was deepening as it passed through Southern Ontario Province. Water vapor satellite imagery reveals that the cold upper trough that was over our area earlier Today was progressing east through the Central and Eastern Great Lakes/Eastern Canada region late This Afternoon with the next system of concern for our area sliding east-southeast through Southwestern Canada. Weak 60 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were occurring near this system Today across parts of Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

(Tonight)

Look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across our area Tonight with some light snow or mixed precipitation possible after Midnight west of a line from International Falls to Brainerd. Any flurries left-over from Today should come to an end early This Evening. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with west or northwest winds turning south or southeast at 5-15 mph later in the night.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Low pressure currently in Southwest Canada will head east and drag it’s warm front and cold front through the Upper Midwest. A 30-40 knot low level jet will be in place across Northern Minnesota on Sunday and this combined with warm advection and some lift provided by the warm front should be enough to generate some light snow and rain in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota with lesser chances for mainly light rain showers and sprinkles farther south in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Any snow accumulations should be under an inch and should be confined to areas north of the Iron Range. Some lingering rain and or snow showers will be possible across our area Sunday Night as the cold front moves through. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. South, southeast, or southwest winds are forecast on Sunday at 10-20 mph with south, west, or northwest winds at 10-25 mph for Sunday Night.

(Extended Forecast)

A northwest flow aloft is expected for the Upper Midwest most of next week which will result in some fairly weak low pressure disturbances that will pass east-southeast through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. Each one of these systems could bring a period of snow or rain but amounts continue to look fairly light. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 30s and 40s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows both nights in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy although a period of clearing is possible This Evening. Low 28 to 33. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph becoming south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph toward dawn.

.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Light rain is possible at times which could be mixed with snow during the Morning. High 40 to 45. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.

.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Wind south becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Monday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 28 to 33. Chance of snow 20%.

.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Snow or rain showers possible. High 37 to 42. Chance of precipitation 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 44 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 28 degrees

Tim

10/30/09: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:38 PM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

A powerful upper level trough and area of low pressure was shifting north-northeast across the Upper Midwest Today with the surface low as of 3 PM centered near Hibbing Minnesota with a pressure down to 981 mb! The surface low has deepened 9 mb over the last 9 hours or 15 mb since 11 PM last night. Some of the lowest pressure readings as of 3 PM ranged from 28.99″ at Grand Rapids to 28.95″ at Orr to 28.96″ at Cook and 28.99″ at Eveleth. Lowest pressure at the Duluth Airport has been 29.04″ so far…But this may drop a little more over the next hour or so.

An occluded front attached to this low lifted north-east through our area This Morning through about Midday Today and brought with it an area of rain showers. A dry slot followed the occluded front with this feature affecting all of Northwest Wisconsin west through Eastern-Northeast Minnesota which resulted in some sunshine during the Afternoon hours along with brisk south/southwest winds from 15-30 mph with gusts of 30-50 mph. Ashland Wisconsin reported a peak wind gust of 53 mph earlier This Afternoon.

An intense vort max associated with the upper level low was now shifting east-northeast out of Central Minnesota and this feature has been producing some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm This Afternoon across parts of Northern-Central St. Louis County while a few other showers were in the process of developing late Today across Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Meanwhile a cold front was shifting east into Central Minnesota and this boundary combined with moisture and colder air wrapping around the deepening surface low has been producing a nice deformation band of rain which is mixing with and turning to snow This Afternoon just west of our area. In fact…Snow some of it heavy with gusty north winds and visibilities under a mile have been occurring at times Today across much of Westcentral Minnesota.

Some other notable highlights associated with this big late October storm include a major winter storm which hit the Rockies and parts of the Western High Plains over the past few days with snowfall totals of 26-45″ reported over parts of Colorado with 12-18″ reported in parts of South Dakota and Western Nebraska.

This storm also produced 36 severe weather reports on Thursday over portions of the Southern Plains with 7 reports of tornadoes in Southern Arkansas and Northwestern Louisiana.

High temperatures across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin were in the 40s and 50s Today with 60s across parts of Northwest Wisconsin. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +1 to +9 degrees C with the warmest values occurring in the Arrowhead of Minnesota while strong cold advection approaches from the west-southwest late Today.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb trough (534 meters) with 100-120 knot H5 winds and 150-170 knot H3 winds were in place across the Upper Midwest…Central Plains…And Western Great Lakes region This Afternoon with impressive 12 hour 500 mb height falls of 150-210 meters covering much of the Upper Midwest and Central Plains east into the Western Great Lakes Today per RUC model analysis.

(Tonight)

Low pressure will continue to deepen Tonight with pressures dropping to between 970-975 mb by dawn as the low heads toward the Lake Nipigon/Thunder Bay Ontario Canada area This Evening then toward Northern Ontario Province Overnight. Western areas will see rain mix with and turn to snow through 7 PM with some snow or snow showers lingering in that area through about Midnight with possible snow accumulations of an inch or two west of a line from International Falls to Grand Rapids to Pine River. East of that line expect areas of rain to become mixed with or change to some snow showers and flurries from mid-Evening through the Overnight hours…Although snow amounts in these areas should remain less than an inch. Look for mostly cloudy skies Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s while gusty winds from the south or west shift more to the northwest and west. 850 mb wind speeds are forecast to strengthen to 35-50 knots across our area Tonight and this should result in 15-30 mph sustain wind speeds with gusts up to 40-45 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Powerful low pressure between 967-970 mb will pull into Northeastern Canada during this period while the next system of interest for our area approaches the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by Saturday Night. Warm advection pattern will develop over our area by Saturday Night and this could cause some light snow or rain over parts of Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota with only minimal snow accumulations expected at this time. Look for some lingering flurries or snow showers on Saturday across our area but overall Tomorrow looks like a mainly dry day. Expect partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow with partly-mostly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Highs Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s. Winds will be out of the northwest on Saturday at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts. Winds Saturday Night will be out of the south, northwest, or east under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Weather pattern from Sunday through most of next week will be characterized by a west or northwest flow aloft with a few minor systems embedded within the flow passing through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest from time to time. One such system could bring a few rain showers to the area on Sunday with some snow possible early in the day across Northern Minnesota. Another system could spread some rain or snow to the area around mid-week. None of these systems look very strong at this time with just minor amounts of snow and or rain expected. High temperatures Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s but some 50s are possible in far Southern areas. Highs Monday will be in the 30s and 40s. Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early then occasional light rain or drizzle developing between 6 PM-8 PM. Rain will mix with and turn to snow showers and flurries Overnight. Snow accumulations less than one inch. Low 28 to 33. Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph shifting to the west to northwest This Evening at 15 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Saturday… Windy. Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers or flurries possible mainly during the Morning. High 33 to 38. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 30%.

.Saturday Night… Some clearing possible for a time during the Evening then clouds increasing once again Overnight. Light snow or rain possible late. Low 27 to 32. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible which could mix with snow early. High 40 to 45. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain or snow showers possible. Low 30 to 35. Chance of precipitation 20%.

.Monday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 38 to 43.

Normal High Temperature Today 45 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 29 degrees

Tim

10/30/09: Midday Storm Update

Issued at 1:41 PM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

…As of 100 PM CDT low pressure of 985 mb was centered near Aitkin Minnesota with the best pressure falls lying across Northeastern Minnesota so the low should continue on it’s northeast track toward the Iron Range through late This Afternoon while continuing to deepen probably toward 980-982 mb by 400 PM…

The occluded front attached to the low has swung north-east through all but the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of early Afternoon. There is a band of showers occurring near this front in Cook and Lake Counties in Northeast Minnesota but this activity was lifting rapidly into Southern Ontario Province.

Dry slot has actually allowed some sunshine to break out from the Twin Ports south along the I35 corridor in Eastern Minnesota and east into much of Northwestern Wisconsin. early This Afternoon with temperatures warming well into the 50s and 60s early This Afternoon across Northwest Wisconsin back through the Twin Ports and points south. Gusty south-southwest winds up to 30 mph were also occurring in these areas as of Midday.

The upper level low as of 100 PM was located in Westcentral Minnesota (540 meters) and this feature along with a very intense vort max was helping to generate some cold core shower activity at this time over Northcentral Minnesota with movement toward the north-northeast.

Some additional scattered shower activity will likely continue to develop through late This Afternoon in Northern-Eastern Minnesota as the H5 low/vort max heads north-east out of Western Minnesota. Although not very likely…It’s still possible that a stray thunderstorm could develop since we are now seeing some sunshine which is allowing for temperatures to warm which will aid in some very weak instability but with the very dynamic nature of this storm it probably will not take very much to spark an isolated thunderstorm thru late Today for areas east and south of the Iron Range.

All of our area remains warm enough at the moment and will remain warm enough so that any precipitation that falls through late This Afternoon would remain in liquid form.

Tim

10/30/09: Morning Storm Update

Issued at 7:55 AM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

…As of 7 AM CDT low pressure of 990 mb was centered in Southwestern Minnesota or between the cities of Tracy and Walnut Grove…Best pressure falls up to 3 mb/2 hours were found across Northeastern Minnesota early This Morning per RUC model analysis and this lines up pretty well with where this area of low pressure should end up by This Afternoon.

This low has deepened about 6 mb over the past 8 hours and further deepening can be expected into Tonight.

As the low heads into Northeast Minnesota This Afternoon the pressures should be down to around 985-986 mb with pressures dropping to between 976-981 mb This Evening as the low heads toward the Lake Nipigon/Thunder Bay Ontario Canada areas.

The upper level low as of 7 AM was located across Eastern Nebraska (540 meters) with powerful jet stream winds of 90-120 knots at 500 mb extending from Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin south-southwest through the Central Plains with 300 mb wind speeds of 120-150 knots occurring from the Upper Midwest down through the Plains or on the east side of this deep storm.

The deformation zone or the area where the most persistent precipitation will occur will affect the Western-Northwestern parts of our area Today including the Counties of Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…And Cass MN…Or on the west and northwest sides of the area of low pressure.

Rain can also be expected This Morning into the early Afternoon hours across the rest of Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin as very deep moisture and good lift north-east of the surface low and occluded front help to produce some precipitation in these areas. Although precipitation will be much more scattered in nature across Northwestern Wisconsin compared to areas farther west.

Some weak instability will also be in place across Northwest Wisconsin into far Eastern Minnesota This Morning through about Midday Today with Mid Level Lapse Rates of 6.0-7.0 c/km and Lifted Indices nearing zero degrees C with CAPES generally of 100 j/kg or less. This could be just enough with all the dynamics in place to produce an isolated thunderstorm risk in those above mentioned areas through early This Afternoon.

Colder air will begin to get pulled into the backside of the deepening low Today and this could result in the rain mixing with or turning over to snow later This Afternoon and This Evening across Northern Minnesota.

Winds will also be a factor across our area especially by This Afternoon and Tonight. Winds will shift to the south and west and eventually west or northwest with wind speeds averaging 15-30 mph but wind gusts could reach 35-40 mph by Tonight.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Tim

10/30/09: Dense Fog Advisory Information

Issued at 7:46 AM CDT, Friday, October 30th, 2009

Following headline issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*Dense Fog Advisory* is in effect until 500 PM CDT This Evening for parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the advisory are:

Southern Cook MN…Southern Lake MN…Southern St. Louis MN…Carlton MN…And Douglas WI…

Some cities included in the advisory are:

Grand Portage MN…Grand Marais MN…Silver Bay MN…Two Harbors MN…Duluth MN…Brookston MN…Floodwood MN…Cloquet MN…Moose Lake MN…Superior WI…Poplar WI…And Solon Springs WI…

Very moist air running north out ahead of a strengthening area of low pressure centered in Southwestern Minnesota early This Morning has resulted in the development of thick fog across parts of the advisory area. Visibilities in some locations have been down to one quarter mile or less at times. The fog will impact Highway 61 along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin Ports and including portions of I35 as well as Highways 2 and 53 in Douglas County Wisconsin.

Visibilities may start to improve from southwest to northeast across the advisory area during the Afternoon hours as strong low pressure lifts up into Northern Minnesota which will cause surface winds to shift from a moist easterly direction to a somewhat drier southwesterly direction.

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will be reduced to less than one quarter mile at times. If you are driving…Slow down…Use low beam headlights…And leave plenty of distance ahead of you.

Tim