Issued at 5:37 PM CST, Sunday, November 29th, 2009
A band of snow developed Saturday Night and early Sunday Morning across portions of Northcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin with the heavier snowfall totals confined to Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some snowfall reports that occurred around our area earlier Today. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.
Park Falls WI (Price County) 1.0″
4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) .7″
International Falls MN (Koochiching County) .6″
Exeland WI (Sawyer County) 1.5″
Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) .5″
Upson WI (Iron County) 1.0″
Winter WI (Sawyer County) 1.6″
Gile WI (Iron County) 1.0″
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures generally in the 30s so still a few degrees above normal for late November. Any leftover snow showers and flurries from earlier Today ended before Noon. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph. The 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM were at -6 degrees C. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1018 mb centered in Eastern South Dakota with low pressure of 1004 mb centered over the far Eastern part of Lake Huron.
(This Evening’s Upper Level Analysis)
Northwest 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening with a vigorous shortwave trough associated with 90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls and -30 to -34 degree C 500 mb temperatures was shifting east across the Upper Midwest/Western and Central Great Lakes and Central Canada. (558 meter) upper level low was nearly stationary over the Northern parts of the Baja with a 100-110 knot upper level wind max found south-east of that upper low. Additional energy was heading into Western Canada This Evening with 100-120 knot upper level winds found across parts of the Northern Plains into Western Canada.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with high pressure in control of our weather. Lows will be mainly in the 20s but some teens can’t be ruled out in the traditional cold spots especially is skies can clear out for a few hours which they may do for a time later Tonight. Winds will be out of the north, west, or southwest under 15 mph.
(Monday and Monday Night)
Another fast moving disturbance will be tracking southeast across our area from Monday into early Monday Night. This disturbance much like the one that moved through Saturday Night will have an 80 knot mid level jet associated with it and this could provide enough lift despite meager amounts of moisture in place to produce some snow showers and flurries around our area on Monday. Snowfall amounts should remain under one inch the way it looks now. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Monday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.
A strong area of low pressure will be passing off to our west-north from Tuesday into Wednesday while a cold front and strong vort max sweeps south-east through our area on Tuesday. The most widespread precipitation associated with this storm is forecast to remain north of the border…However some snow or mixed precipitation could occur on Tuesday across Northern Minnesota but any precipitation that does fall should be on the light side. Strong cold advection and gusty northwest winds will overspread the area by Tuesday Afternoon-Evening with some flurries or snow showers possible at times from Tuesday Night through Thursday as a much colder airmass overtakes our area.
A significant lake effect snow event is quite possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin beginning late Tuesday Night and possibly lingering through Thursday. Bayfield…Ashland…And Iron Counties appear to be where the brunt of the lake snow will set-up as northwest to north winds and -10 to -14 degree C 850 mb temperatures move over Lake Superior. The potential does exist for snow totals to reach or possibly exceed 6″ over parts of those areas by later this week.
High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s on Tuesday with highs Wednesday generally in the 20s but some locales could hold in the teens. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens. We could be dealing with sub-zero wind chill readings at times around our area especially during the Overnight/Morning hours depending on wind speeds and the actual temperatures during those times.
A brief warm-up may occur across the Upper Midwest sometime between this coming Friday-Sunday before a true arctic airmass descends south-east into our area sometime the early part of the following week per latest GFS model trends. Extremely low 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures possibly in the minus 20s to around -30 degrees C could result in some bitterly cold air spreading south into our area at somepoint during the next two weeks.
Whether or not we see any sort of snow system/s impact our area before this arctic air moves in remains to be seen although right now snow chances look pretty low outside of the Snowbelt region in Northwestern Wisconsin.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible at times later in the night. Low 20 to 25. Wind west around 12 mph.
.Monday… Partly sunny early otherwise mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Accumulations under an inch. High 30 to 35. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
.Monday Night… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Colder. Flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Northwest winds could gust to 25 mph.
.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Colder. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33 with slowly falling temperatures.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 8 to 13.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 18 to 23.
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 13 degrees