11/30/09: Possible snow on Tuesday

Issued at 7:46 AM CST, Monday, November 30th, 2009

…An area of low pressure is forecast to move east-southeast out of Western Canada Today and will pass through Northern Minnesota Tuesday and Tuesday Evening before exiting off to the east by late Tuesday Night…The track of this low has shifted a bit more to the south on the latest model runs and if this more southern route continues, then some measurable snow will occur across parts of Northern Minnesota for Tuesday into early Wednesday…

At this time it appears that 1-3″ of snow may accumulate from Tuesday into early Wednesday across Northern Minnesota…Generally north of a line from Bigfork to Forest Center Minnesota. Some cities that could be impacted include…International Falls MN…Northome MN…Togo MN…Crane Lake MN…Orr MN…Ely MN…And Forest Center MN…

The track of this low pressure system could still change a bit with future model runs and as a result the axis of snow and how much falls may shift a bit to the north or south. Stay tuned for more updates as additional information becomes available throughout the day.

It’s possible that some some sort of a winter weather headline may be needed for parts of Northern Minnesota for Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Tim

11/29/09: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:37 PM CST, Sunday, November 29th, 2009

A band of snow developed Saturday Night and early Sunday Morning across portions of Northcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin with the heavier snowfall totals confined to Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some snowfall reports that occurred around our area earlier Today. Data provided by the National Weather Service, Duluth, Minnesota.

Park Falls WI (Price County) 1.0″

4 miles North of Grantsburg WI (Burnett County) .7″

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) .6″

Exeland WI (Sawyer County) 1.5″

Grand Rapids MN (Itasca County) .5″

Upson WI (Iron County) 1.0″

Winter WI (Sawyer County) 1.6″

Gile WI (Iron County) 1.0″

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Mostly cloudy skies were found across our area Today with high temperatures generally in the 30s so still a few degrees above normal for late November. Any leftover snow showers and flurries from earlier Today ended before Noon. Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph. The 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM were at -6 degrees C. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1018 mb centered in Eastern South Dakota with low pressure of 1004 mb centered over the far Eastern part of Lake Huron.

(This Evening’s Upper Level Analysis)

Northwest 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening with a vigorous shortwave trough associated with 90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls and -30 to -34 degree C 500 mb temperatures was shifting east across the Upper Midwest/Western and Central Great Lakes and Central Canada. (558 meter) upper level low was nearly stationary over the Northern parts of the Baja with a 100-110 knot upper level wind max found south-east of that upper low. Additional energy was heading into Western Canada This Evening with 100-120 knot upper level winds found across parts of the Northern Plains into Western Canada.

(Tonight)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with high pressure in control of our weather. Lows will be mainly in the 20s but some teens can’t be ruled out in the traditional cold spots especially is skies can clear out for a few hours which they may do for a time later Tonight. Winds will be out of the north, west, or southwest under 15 mph.

(Monday and Monday Night)

Another fast moving disturbance will be tracking southeast across our area from Monday into early Monday Night. This disturbance much like the one that moved through Saturday Night will have an 80 knot mid level jet associated with it and this could provide enough lift despite meager amounts of moisture in place to produce some snow showers and flurries around our area on Monday. Snowfall amounts should remain under one inch the way it looks now. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Monday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Monday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A strong area of low pressure will be passing off to our west-north from Tuesday into Wednesday while a cold front and strong vort max sweeps south-east through our area on Tuesday. The most widespread precipitation associated with this storm is forecast to remain north of the border…However some snow or mixed precipitation could occur on Tuesday across Northern Minnesota but any precipitation that does fall should be on the light side. Strong cold advection and gusty northwest winds will overspread the area by Tuesday Afternoon-Evening with some flurries or snow showers possible at times from Tuesday Night through Thursday as a much colder airmass overtakes our area.

A significant lake effect snow event is quite possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin beginning late Tuesday Night and possibly lingering through Thursday. Bayfield…Ashland…And Iron Counties appear to be where the brunt of the lake snow will set-up as northwest to north winds and -10 to -14 degree C 850 mb temperatures move over Lake Superior. The potential does exist for snow totals to reach or possibly exceed 6″ over parts of those areas by later this week.

High temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s on Tuesday with highs Wednesday generally in the 20s but some locales could hold in the teens. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens. We could be dealing with sub-zero wind chill readings at times around our area especially during the Overnight/Morning hours depending on wind speeds and the actual temperatures during those times.

A brief warm-up may occur across the Upper Midwest sometime between this coming Friday-Sunday before a true arctic airmass descends south-east into our area sometime the early part of the following week per latest GFS model trends. Extremely low 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures possibly in the minus 20s to around -30 degrees C could result in some bitterly cold air spreading south into our area at somepoint during the next two weeks.

Whether or not we see any sort of snow system/s impact our area before this arctic air moves in remains to be seen although right now snow chances look pretty low outside of the Snowbelt region in Northwestern Wisconsin.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible at times later in the night. Low 20 to 25. Wind west around 12 mph.

.Monday… Partly sunny early otherwise mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Accumulations under an inch. High 30 to 35. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 40%.

.Monday Night… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Colder. Flurries possible. Low 20 to 25. Northwest winds could gust to 25 mph.

.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Colder. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33 with slowly falling temperatures.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 8 to 13.

.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 18 to 23.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 13 degrees

Tim

11/28/09: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:19 PM CST, Saturday, November 28th, 2009

Note: Consecutive days in a row with a high temperature above 32 degrees stopped at 239 straight days at the Duluth Airport on November 26th, 2009. The high temperature at the Airport on the 26th was 32 degrees which ended our consecutive days in a row with a high temperature above freezing at 239 days which places it 8th on the list. The record was 257 days set in 1878.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Low pressure of 1008 mb was centered in Northeast Iowa late This Afternoon with a 1004 mb low centered over the Southern part of Kansas. A cold front connected the two lows and was located across the Central Plains northeast to Southwest Wisconsin late Today. Partly to mostly sunny skies were found over our area Today to the north of this low pressure system with high temperatures on the mild side for late November with 30s and 40s common across our area Today with north or west winds under 15 mph. The 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from zero to -1 degree C in Northern Minnesota to +1 to +5 degrees C in Central and Southern parts of our area. Colder air with H85 temperatures of -6 to -10 degrees C were lurking to our north This Afternoon while a mild airmass with +10 to +16 degree C H85 temps covered much of the Central and Southern Plains Today which resulted in widespread highs in the 60s/70s across those areas.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (552 meters) was digging south-southeast through Southern California Today per water vapor satellite imagery while a broad longwave trough was progressing south-east out of the Rockies. Widespread mid/high level moisture was evident on This Afternoon’s water vapor satellite imagery across the Northern-Central Plains and Upper Midwest states or on the east side of this trough. 90-120 knot wind max extended from Central North Dakota across Northern Minnesota into Eastern Canada late Today per RUC model analysis with a 110-130 knot wind max extending from Northwest Mexico west through the Baja of California near the H5 low which was digging south through Southern California Today. The greatest height falls of 120-150 meters per 12 hours were occurring across the Southwest U.S. Today while a larger area of weaker height falls (30-60 meters) were occurring in the Northern and Central Plains.

(Tonight)

Look for skies to become mostly cloudy across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with the potential for some light snow or flurries as an upper level trough and a weak disturbance approach from the west. Snow accumulations if any should be a dusting to perhaps one half inch by dawn. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and lower 30s with north or west winds under 15 mph.

(Sunday and Sunday Night)

Colder airmass compared to Today will be overhead during this period as 850 mb temperatures drop to around -4 to -8 degrees C which will result in mainly 30s for daytime highs on Sunday while lows Sunday Night drop into the teens and 20s. Look for partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies for Sunday and partly-mostly cloudy skies for Sunday Night. Some flurries are possible Sunday Morning otherwise this period looks mainly dry…The exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where some lake effect snow showers may develop at times Sunday into Sunday Evening. Ashland and Iron Counties will be at greatest risk for seeing some lake effect snow. Accumulations look to be light and should remain under 2″. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

A fast flow aloft will prevail into early next week with another fairly weak disturbance dropping south-east across our area on Monday. A few flurries or snow showers may accompany this system but little accumulation is expected. A stronger area of low pressure will then pass off to our west/north by mid-week while a cold front drops south and east through our area on Tuesday. Most of the precipitation associated with this storm will remain to our north for Tuesday and Wednesday but some flurries or snow showers could occur at times mainly in far Northern Minnesota both those days with some flurries also possible farther south by Wednesday. High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 30s with 30s and 40s expected on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s but some teens are possible in Northern areas especially by Tuesday Night.

Much colder air is then forecast to overspread the Upper Midwest starting the middle of next week and once it arrives it may have some staying power as reinforcing shots of cold air…Some possibly of arctic origin covers much of the U.S. aside from areas west of the Rockies and over the far Southern parts of the U.S.

The upper level flow which has been of Pacific origin more or less this whole month appears to be undergoing a huge shift in the coming days with a north or north/northwest 500 mb flow becoming established around the Upper Midwest as a polar vortex develops well to our north. This type of upper air pattern is not one that you would see with an El-Nino.

As far as snow goes…Does not appear will see much around our area anytime soon although we should start to see some ice development on some of the lakes/creeks around the area during early December.

Over the last few days some of the models had been showing the possibility for a merging weather system over the Great Lakes later next week which could’ve led to some accumulating snow across parts of our area. It now seems that if any merging occurs it would be well to our east keeping any meaningful snow/rain well to our southeast-east with some flurries or light snow showers at times around our area. The only exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where there could be a lake effect snow event setting up sometime around the middle or end of next week. This would include the Counties of Bayfield…Ashland…And Iron. Some locally heavy snow totals could eventually develop later next week depending on wind direction/temperatures.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Little if any accumulation expected. Low 27 to 32. Wind north to northwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday… Flurries possible early. Considerable cloudiness. High 32 to 37. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 20 to 25.

.Wednesday… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33.

Normal High Temperature Today 29 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 14 degrees

Tim

11/27/09: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:14 PM CST, Friday, November 27th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1998… A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1985… A record low temperature of -12 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1994… 1.34″ of precipitation and 12.4″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Source: National Weather Service, Duluth, MN.

Note: Consecutive number of days at or above 32 degrees has ended at International Falls Minnesota. The high temperature on November 26th, 2009 was 28 degrees which ended the streak at 242 straight days at or above 32 degrees. The record was 246 set in 1958 while second place occurred in 2001 with 244 days.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

It has definately turned cooler across our area over the last two days but still nothing terribly cold…But that could change by later next week. Partly-mostly cloudy skies occurred in our area Today with a tight baroclinic zone in place across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest/Western High Plains region. High temperatures ranged from the 30s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to the 50s and 60s over the Western High Plains and Central Plains. 850 mb temperatures as of 5 PM ranged from zero to -3 degrees C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +7 degrees C across Western and Southern parts of our area. Winds Today were out of the south or east under 15 mph. Weather map early This Evening featured low pressure of 1008 mb centered in Eastern South Dakota with a trough stretching from Western Ontario Province south through the Eastern Dakotas.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

West to east 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a (534 meter) 500 mb low lifting north through the Northeast U.S. while an upper level trough digs south-southeast through California. Lots of mid and high level moisture was pushing east through the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains/and Central Rockies out ahead of the Western U.S. trough early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. 60-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls covered portions of the Northern Rockies and Western U.S. Today near this upper level trough.

(Tonight)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across Northern Minnesota with low pressure remaining to our west-southwest while a trough edges east into the Upper Midwest. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with variable winds under 15 mph.

(Saturday and Saturday Night)

Low pressure will pass south-southeast of our area during this period while a trough passes east through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies in store for Saturday Night. Some light snow or flurries are possible by Saturday Night but little if any accumulation of snow is expected at this time. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s but some 40s are possible in parts of Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and lower 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the north or west under 20 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

Flurries or some snow showers could linger around our area for Sunday and then dry weather is expected from Sunday Night into early next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the teens and 20s.

By the middle to end of next week will see an area of low pressure head east or east-southeast out of Western Canada while another area of low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast states. Some of the forecast models Today and over the last few days for that matter have been phasing these two seperate lows into one area of low pressure somewhere over the Eastern Great Lakes region later next week while an upper level trough develops across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Some measurable snow could develop around our area sometime the middle or end of next week if these systems can phase together. If the pattern remains unphased which is quite possible then we would only see some flurries or perhaps a few snow showers later next week.

The bigger weather headline could ultimately be the temperatures as it does appear that some arctic air could slip south out of Central Canada into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later next week. 850 mb temperatures could drop into the minus teens below zero C…Which could result in daytime highs actually falling below normal for a change while Overnight lows could get close to the zero degree mark but that would be dependent on sky conditions and wind speeds. The overall trend during the first week or two of December is for a colder weather regime across the Upper Midwest with a couple arctic air outbreaks looking possible.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind south to southeast under 12 mph.

.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 33 to 38. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Flurries possible. Mostly cloudy. High 32 to 35.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 35 to 40.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 29 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 14 degrees

Tim

11/25/09: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:47 PM CST, Wednesday, November 25th, 2009

Weather History:

On this date in 1985… A record low temperature of -16 degrees occurred at the Duluth Airport.

On this date in 1993… 7.5″ of snow fell at the Duluth Airport.

Weather tibits:

-Average November temperature at the Duluth Airport: 39.6 degrees thru the 24th which is 10 degrees above average.

-Average snowfall by the 25th is 12.6″. Snowfall total so far this month is just 1.1″ at the Duluth Airport which is 11.5″ below average.

-Number of days in a row with at or above normal high temperatures at the Duluth Airport is up to 23.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

(Today’s Weather)

Strong upper level low has been dropping south/southeast through Western and Southern Minnesota Today while low pressure of 1004 mb heads northeast out of Northern Lake Michigan toward Eastern Upper Michigan late Today. Mostly cloudy skies covered most of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with areas of drizzle and light rain which mixed with and turned to light snow and flurries at times over parts of our area but little if any snow accumulation has been reported. Highs Today were cooler compared to the last few days but remained above normal with readings topping out in the 30s and 40s. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from -1 to -5 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Late Afternoon wind chills were down into the 20s across parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)

500 mb low (540 meters) was dropping south into Northern Iowa late Today with an upper level trough covering the Upper Midwest. 60-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls were in place Today across parts of the Central Plains north into Southern Minnesota and Southwest Wisconsin near this upper low while a 100-110 knot upper level jet was found across the Northern Plains or on the west side of the H5 trough.

(Tonight)

Strong area of low pressure aloft will move from Northern Iowa to Southern Lake Michigan Tonight with high pressure centered to our west. Mostly cloudy skies This Evening will give way to some clearing from northwest-southeast Overnight. Areas of drizzle and light rain will mix with and turn to light snow and flurries Tonight but precipitation amounts will remain light with the better chance for precipitation occurring in Northwestern Wisconsin where a light dusting of snow may accumulate by Morning. Lows Tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s with some teens possible in Western areas. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or northwest at 10-25 mph. Wind chills Tonight will be mainly in the teens and 20s but some single digits can’t be ruled out Overnight in Western-Northwest areas.

(Thanksgiving Day and Night)

High pressure will move into the Upper Midwest during this period which will result in mainly partly cloudy and dry conditions although some lake effect snow showers or flurries could occur on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin mainly in Bayfield…Ashland…And Iron Counties. N/NW flow at the surface and aloft combined with H85 temperatures ranging from -6 to -8 degrees C moving over Lake Superior where water temps were in the middle 30s to lower 40s could be enough to generate some lake effect snow on Thursday east of the Twin Ports. Accumulations look light at this time however. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s. Winds on Thursday will be out of the north or west under 20 mph with south or northwest winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

(Extended Forecast)

High pressure will be pushing off to our east on Friday while low pressure and a cold front head east into the Upper Midwest this weekend. This system looks fairly weak at this time due to the jet streams which will remain unphased. Moisture also appears to be lacking with this system and as a result only some light snow or flurries are expected at times across Northern Minnesota from late Saturday through Sunday with flurry or light snow chances pushing farther south-east through the rest of our area toward Sunday. High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows both nights in the 20s to around 30 degrees.

Looking into next week features temperatures cooler compared to where they have been most of this month…But it still appears will have slightly above average or normal temperatures for most of next week. No big weather systems are on the horizon either.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Colder compared to recent nights. Drizzle mixed with light snow and flurries with precipitation ending during the Evening. Some clearing possible late. Low 25 to 30. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thanksgiving Day… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30.

.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. High 32 to 35. Chance of snow 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 30 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 15 degrees

Tim