Issued at 3:46 PM CST, Monday, December 28th, 2009
-December 2009 Weather stats for Duluth, Minnesota. (Airport location)
Thru the 27th: Average monthly temperature 13.1 degrees
Departure: -1.5 degrees
Snowfall total thru the 27th: 32.5″
Departure: 19.7″ above normal
Precipitation total thru the 27th: 2.87″
Departure: 2.05″ above normal
Weather headlines:
…Big story this week will be the two arctic air surges. One overhead Tonight, a bigger one due later this week…
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
(Today’s Weather)
An arctic front moved out of our area early This Morning, gusty winds and falling temperatures occurred as this boundary moved through. High temperatures Today occurred just after Midnight last night when teens and 20s were common, then during the day Today temperatures dropped into the single digits and teens for most areas. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from -13 to -17 degrees C across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. There’s been some lake effect snow showers that have affected portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin Today, but snowfall totals have generally been on the light side, and as a result the Lake Effect Snow Advisory has been cancelled for Iron County. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-25 mph with some higher gusts especially This Morning. Late Afternoon wind chills were mainly in the 10 above to 10 below range across our local area. Surface map as of 3 PM featured arctic high pressure of 1032 mb centered in far Southeast Saskatchewan Province.
(Today’s Upper Level Analysis)
Northwest 500 mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with an upper level trough in place from Central Canada south to the Northern Great Lakes. 500 mb temps underneath this trough ranged from -32 to -38 degrees C. Upper level winds have strengthened to 120 knots Today across the Upper Midwest per RUC model and this core of stronger winds aloft is helping to drive colder air south into our area.
(Tonight)
Arctic high pressure will drop southeast through the Northern Plains Tonight with cold advection continuing most of the night to the east of this high. Clear-partly cloudy skies will cover our local area Tonight with low temperatures dropping into the single digits below to above zero with some teens to around 20 degree below zero readings expected for some locations. Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 20 mph. Wind chills Tonight will range from 10 below to around 25 below zero.
(Tuesday and Tuesday Night)
High pressure will shift to the south/east of our area during this period. Some warm advection will gradually move into the Upper Midwest as this high moves away. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies can be expected on Tuesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies for Tuesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night holding fairly steady from the daytime highs. Winds during this period will be out of the south or west under 20 mph.
Note: There could be some lake effect snow showers that develop by Tuesday Night along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly from Tofte northeast through Grand Marais and Grand Portage as southerly winds combined with 850 mb temps around -10 degrees C could help in generating some lake snow Tomorrow Night, this shouldn’t be a very big deal though as warm advection will be underway by Tomorrow Night which should keep any lake effect snow fairly light.
(Extended Forecast)
Low pressure and a cold front will be passing east through our area on Wednesday. This system could bring some flurries or a few snow showers to our area, but nothing significant is expected at this time. Warmest day of the week should occur on Wednesday when high temps will be in the teens and 20s. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the single digits to low teens.
A secondary cold front will drop south across the Upper Midwest on Thursday with arctic air blasting into our area behind this boundary as an upper level jet over the Northern Rockies builds to 130 knots helping to drive an even colder airmass south into our area later this week. The coldest period looks to be from Thursday Night into Saturday… High temperatures on Thursday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens below zero for most areas.
High temps for Friday will struggle to get much above zero which will set the stage for a bitterly cold Friday Night as low temps will likely drop into the teens, 20s, and even some 30s below zero across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Right now it doesn’t appear will have much wind around later this week, but it will not take much of a wind to get wind chills down into advisory, possibly even warning criteria later this week given how low the temperatures will be by Friday Night.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Cold. Low 6 below to 11 below. Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Wind chills approaching 25 below.
.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 12 to 17. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.
.Wednesday… Flurries possible. Considerable cloudiness. High 17 to 22.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 5 to 10.
.New Years Eve… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 10 to 15.
.Thursday Night… Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 3 below to 8 below.
.New Years Day… Partly cloudy. High zero to 5 above.
Normal High Temperature Today 19 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 1 degree
Tim
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