Monthly Archives: February 2010

Issued at 4:30 PM CST, Sunday, February 28th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date last year, the low temperature at Duluth Minnesota was -18 degrees.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Mostly cloudy skies continued to cover portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today while sunny skies continued in Northern Minnesota. Highs Today were mainly in the 30s with a few locales in Minnesota climbing to 40 degrees. Winds Today were out of the north or east under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1022-1030 mb strectching from the Northern Plains to Ontario Province. Low pressure of 1000 mb was centered in Western New Mexico.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Upper level lows covered the Southwest U.S. and Northeast U.S. with a north/northwest 500 mb flow covering the Upper Midwest.

Tonight through Monday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area during this period. A few flurries could fall in the Arrowhead of Minnesota and in parts of Northern Wisconsin Tonight, otherwise mainly dry conditions should prevail. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens but some of the traditional cold spots could drop into the single digits below zero both nights. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 30s. North, northeast, or west winds will continue under 15 mph with high pressure continuing to sit across the Northern Plains.

Extended Forecast:

Mainly dry conditions will continue from Tuesday through the end of the week with a blocking pattern remaining in place across the Upper Midwest. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the single digits and teens.

Looking out toward late next weekend and into early the following week, or from March 7th-10th is a period to keep an eye on as there could be a rather strong low pressure system lifting northeast out of the Plains. GFS model Today is the most progressive with this system while the EUROPEAN model has trended much more amplified and much slower in lifting the system out of the Plains. Still plenty of time to monitor this potential storm system that may impact Minnesota sometime between the 7th-10th of March. Should this storm move our way, then we could see some wind, snow, and rain around the Upper Midwest at somepoint during that aforementioned time period.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 11 to 16. Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15.

.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 29 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 10 degrees

Tim

Issued at 3:19 PM CST, Saturday, February 27th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

-Chile hit by an 8.8 magnitude earthquake early Today.

-The only 8.8 earthquake in U.S. history was Alaska (1957) The 8 biggest earthquakes in the U.S. were all in Alaska. Source: Minnesota Public Radio.

-A magnitude 5.0 earthquake hit Minnesota on July 9th, 1975. Source: Paul Douglas

-February 2010 is on the verge of being the first month since January 2007 with sunspots every single day of the month

-Today marks the 7th day this month at Duluth Minnesota with a high temperature at or above 32 degrees

-February 2009 had 8 days with a high temperature at or above 32 degrees at Duluth with 1 day with a high temperature of 40 degrees, this occurred on the 10th

-Last time 1″ or more of snow fell at Duluth Minnesota was on the 14th of this month

-Possible pattern shift between March 7th-10th?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Locations from Ashland to Hayard Wisconsin on east saw mostly cloudy skies Today with even a few reports of flurries and very light snow in parts of Iron County Wisconsin, the remainder of our area saw lots of sunshine Today. High temperatures Today were generally in the 30s with even a few locales nearing 40 degrees This Afternoon in Northern/Eastern Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM were around -4 degrees C. Winds Today were out of the north under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a 1020-1026 mb high pressure ridge off to our west with low pressure of 998 mb centered in Central New York.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

North/northwest upper level flow persisted across the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. (522-528) meter 500 mb low covered the Northeast U.S. with mid/high level moisture continuing to shift west off that low into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Eastcentral portions of Canada per water vapor satellite imagery. An active storm track continues from the Pacific Ocean through the Western-Southwest U.S., east through the Southern Plains then toward the Western Atlantic with little change expected with this pattern through the next 5 days. The system moving into the Four Corners (SW U.S.) Today was rather vigorous with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring from SoCal to Arizona per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain off to our west/northwest while an upper level low digs south/east out of Western Ontario-Eastern Manitoba Provinces toward Western Lake Superior during this period. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Northwest Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota with generally partly cloudy conditions occurring in Northern Minnesota. Flurries or a few light snow showers could fall from time to time in portions of Northwest Wisconsin and extreme Northeast Minnesota, but no accumulations are expected at this time. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens with highs Tomorrow generally in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north or northeast under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Very quiet conditions will continue for the Upper Midwest for most of next week as high pressure remains in control while a new storm takes aim at the Southern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic where rain and snow will occur during the early to mid part of next week. High temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be mainly in the 30s for Monday and Tuesday with low temperatures in the single digits and teens for Monday Night and Tuesday Night.

Note: The long range forecast models per EUROPEAN and GFS from yesterday and Today are showing a rather strong storm system moving into the Central Plains, and possibly into the Upper Midwest sometime between March 8th-10th which could bring snow or rain to the Upper Midwest during that time. The track of this system, as well as the timing and strength will change from model run to model run during the next 7 days or so, but there are at least some signs that the weather pattern may start to shift toward the second week of March.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 32 to 37. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 12 to 17. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 32 to 37.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 10 degrees

Tim

Issued at 2:45 PM CST, Friday, February 26th, 2010

Here are some low temperatures that occurred around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin earlier Today, Friday, February 26th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls MN: -11 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -15 degrees

Ely MN: -17 degrees

Orr MN: -11 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -15 degrees

Cook MN: -13 degrees

Bigfork MN: -11 degrees

Longville MN: -11 degrees

Pine River MN: -11 degrees

Hayward WI: -11 degrees

Brainerd MN: -12 degrees

Embarrass MN: -24 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -16 degrees

Hinckley MN: -11 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -15 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -22 degrees

Littlefork MN: -14 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -20 degrees

Upson WI: -16 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Mainly sunny skies were found throughout our area Today with high temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from -6 to -8 degrees C. Dewpoints in Northeast Minnesota were in the single digits and teens below zero This Afternoon, an extremely dry airmass overhead Today! Winds Today were generally out of the north or east under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a 1022-1026 mb high pressure ridge extending from Central Ontario Province south through Minnesota. Low pressure of 992 mb was centered just east-northeast of New Jersey.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Strong upper level low (522 meters) covered parts of the Northeast U.S. Today per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. Mid and high level moisture was spreading west off that system with moisture (in the upper levels) as far west as the Central Great Lakes region as of mid-Afternoon. Two large storms were located across the Pacific Ocean with strong 120-150 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls occurring near the first system just off-shore from California This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail for most of our local area Tonight, but clouds will increase in portions of Northwest Wisconsin and in far Northeast Minnesota during the night due to that large storm across the Northeast U.S. spreading some moisture west toward our area. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero but some minus teens are possible in the traditional cold spots. With high pressure nearby, winds Tonight will be fairly light, generally under 15 mph and out of the north.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period with high pressure across the Upper Midwest while upper level and surface low pressure remain over the Northeast U.S. Moisture wrapping west off that East Coast storm could result in the development of some flurries or light snow showers at times during this period…Mainly from far Northeast Minnesota into parts of Northwest Wisconsin, little if any accumulation is expected though. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the teens. Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Looks like will see an upper level low pressure system develop somewhere in the Southern Ontario Province/Western Great Lakes vicinity late this weekend or early next week, this system once it develops will then drop south/southeast toward the Southern Great Lakes around Tuesday of next week. No significant snow is expected with this system, but we could see some snow flurries or snow showers at times across parts of our area from Sunday into Tuesday, but little accumulation is expected at this time. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night mainly in the teens.

Lake Effect Snow Threat:

Although winds will be turning to the northeast this weekend into early next week, it appears that temperatures will remain too warm to support any substanial lake effect snow development near Lake Superior. Right now it looks like 850 mb temperatures will be holding around -5 to -8 degrees C which is too warm to support heavy lake effect snowfall. We do have some moisture heading west across Lake Superior, however, especially this weekend before the atmosphere dries out once again by early next week, but nothing more than some light lake effect snow showers and flurries are expected along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior from Saturday Night through Sunday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low zero to 5 below. Wind north under 12 mph.

.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35. Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night… Variable cloudiness. Flurries possible. Low 10 to 15. Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 12 to 17.

.Monday… Partly sunny. High 29 to 34.

.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

Normal High Temperature Today 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 9 degrees

Tim

Issued at 5:11 PM CST, Thursday, February 25th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2007… 1.06″ of precipitation with 11.3″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1990… A record low temperature of -26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some low temperatures across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from earlier Today, Thursday, February 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: -9 degrees

International Falls MN: -14 degrees

Brainerd MN: -11 degrees

Hibbing MN: -14 degrees

Silver Bay MN: -18 degrees

Ely MN: -24 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -22 degrees

Cook MN: -20 degrees

Eveleth MN: -15 degrees

Bigfork MN: -17 degrees

Cloquet MN: -13 degrees

Hayward WI: -13 degrees

Superior WI: -8 degrees

Siren WI: -10 degrees

Cass Lake MN: -17 degrees

Embarrass MN: -24 degrees

3 miles West of Floodwood MN: -18 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -21 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -24 degrees

Littlefork MN: -19 degrees

Northome MN: -21 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: -21 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Sunshine with high temperatures generally in the 20s were found across our area Today with 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM sitting right around -10 degrees C. Winds Today were variable under 12 mph. Surface map late Today shows a high pressure ridge of 1024-1030 mb extending from the Upper Midwest north to Ontario Province while low pressure of 984 mb was centered east of New Jersey.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Amplified N/NW flow covered the Upper Midwest Today. Strong upper level winds >130 knots covered areas from South Florida through the Western Atlantic which is helping in generating a powerful storm in the Northeast U.S. Mid/high level moisture associated with this strengthening low was spreading west through Eastern Canada This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. An area of 110 knot upper level winds extended from the Pacific Northwest southeast through Southern New Mexico-West Texas with a fairly vigorous shortwave trough pushing east/southeast out of the Southern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Dry weather will prevail during this period with high pressure in control of our weather. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to above zero with some teens and possibly 20s below zero in the traditional cold spots. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with highs Tomorrow in the 20s to low 30s. Variable or northerly winds are forecast during this period under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Moisture spreading west off that strong Northeast U.S. storm will find it’s way into Northern Wisconsin and possibly Northeast Minnesota this weekend. Could see some flurries or snow showers occur mainly in Northern Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota from late Saturday into early Monday, this doesn’t look like a big snow event with accumulations if any remaining under 1″. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be in the 20s and 30s across our area with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the single digits and teens. Appears will see a cold front and possibly an upper level low pressure system develop across the Upper Midwest around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, no big snows are expected with that system, but we could see another round of flurries or snow showers for parts of our local area sometime the early or middle part of next week.

In general no big changes are expected with the upper level pattern through next week, possibly even into the second week of March. Any snow events that may impact our local area during the next week or two would be caused by cold fronts and or upper level lows that traverse the Upper Midwest, but no significant storm systems are on the horizon anytime soon for Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 5 below to 10 below. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 27 to 32. Wind north around 12 mph.

.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 to 7. Wind north around 10 mph.

.Saturday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.

.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness. High 28 to 33.

.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 10 to 15.

.Monday… Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 9 degrees

Tim

Issued at 8:39 PM CST, Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2001… 0.67″ of precipitation with 11.7″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Here are some snowfall reports from Northwest Wisconsin. Source NWS Duluth, MN. Snow totals are from Tuesday and Today…

Gile WI (Iron County) 21.5″

Mellen WI (Ashland County) 8.0″

Gurney WI (Iron County) 14.0″

1 mile Southwest of Bayfield WI (Bayfield County) 2.2″

Hurley WI (Iron County) 11-12″

Saxon WI (Iron County) 8.0″

Montreal WI (Iron County) 14.0″

Here are some low temperatures across Northern Minnesota from earlier Today, Wednesday, February 24th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN: -24 degrees

Orr MN: -18 degrees

Crane Lake MN: -24 degrees

Cook MN: -22 degrees

Bigfork MN: -20 degrees

Pine River MN: -17 degrees

Babbitt MN: -21 degrees

Cass Lake MN: -19 degrees

Kabetogama MN: -21 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: -23 degrees

Littlefork MN: -23 degrees

Northome MN: -19 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Aside from the South Shore of Lake Superior which saw mostly cloudy skies Today along with lingering snow showers which were heavy at times, mainly across parts of Ashland/Iron Counties…The rest of our area saw plenty of sunshine with high temperatures area-wide in the teens to low 20s. 850 mb temperatures as of 8 PM were sitting right around -12 degrees C. Winds Today were variable or north/east in direction under 12 mph. Surface map as of mid-Evening featured a 1026-1030 mb high pressure ridge stretching from Central Ontario Province south to Minnesota.

This Evening’s 500 mb analysis:

Northerly flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest This Evening per RUC model analysis. A (528 meter) upper level low was heading south/east out of Indiana per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough was in place from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley north to Central Canada while an upper level ridge builds east out of the Northern Plains. Strong upper level jet stream winds >140 knots were in place over the Southeast U.S. northeast through the Carolinas This Evening per RUC model analysis and this core of strong jet stream winds will help form a massive storm across the Northeast U.S. from Thursday through Saturday with 1-4″ of precipitation, 50-65 mph winds, and the potential for 15-40″ of snow…

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure ridge will be in control of our local weather through this period. Expect clear to partly cloudy skies from Tonight through Tomorrow Night with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero Tonight with single digits below to above zero readings on tap for Tomorrow Night. Highs Tomorrow should reach the 20s for most areas. Winds will be variable under 12 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A major storm will continue to affect the Northeast U.S. through the weekend and into early next week which will result in a blocking pattern for our area. There is a possibility that we could see some Atlantic moisture wrap west off that storm and into portions of our area sometime late this weekend or early next week…Sort of similar to what occurred during Valentine’s weekend, however, at this time it doesn’t appear that will see much more than some extra clouds moving in and possibly some off an flurries during that aforementioned time period. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Lake effect snow update:

Winds have veered to an easterly direction This Evening and with cold air still in place we have seen a flare up of lake effect snow showers as of mid-Evening at the head of Lake Superior…Including the immediate Duluth-Superior area. Lingering lake effect snow showers also continued across portions of Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin This Evening…These areas could pick up another 1-3″ of fluffy snow Tonight while the area from Two Harbors south to Duluth and east to Superior see perhaps a dusting to 1″ of snow by dawn.

It appears that we could see a north or east wind re-develop near Lake Superior this weekend and early next week, although right now it appears that temperatures will warm enough by that time to prevent any lake effect snow from developing, this situation will have to be watched though since the lake is wide open and any cooling that takes place could set off some periods of lake effect snow shower activity near Lake Superior late this weekend or early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Occasional cloudiness with scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries. Snow accumulations less than 1″. Low zero to 5 below, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 10 mph.

.Thursday… Lake effect flurries possible early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 22 to 27. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 28 to 33.

.Friday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 to 7.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.

.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 8 to 13.

.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 28 to 33.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 28 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 9 degrees

Tim