Issued at 8:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 30th, 2010
Weather tibits:
*Average monthly temperature at Duluth, MN thru the 29th: 35.9 degrees which is 11.0 degrees Above Normal. All time warmest March on record: 39.1 degrees set in 1878.
*Today’s high temperature of at least 50 degrees makes it the 10th day during the month of March 2010 with a maximum temperature greater than 50 degrees at Duluth, MN. This month has also had 2 days with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees at Duluth, MN. March 2009 had just 3 days with a high temperature of at least 50 degrees with zero days of 60 degree high temperatures.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Today’s Weather:
Unseasonably warm day Today for most of our area as high temperatures made it into the 60s and lower 70s! The exception to this was along the North Shore of Lake Superior down through the Twin Ports (below the hill) where temperatures climbed into the 50s and 60s for a time before falling back into the 40s during the mid/late Afternoon hours thanks to a wind shift from the south to the east/northeast. Winds away from Lake Superior were out of the south at 10-20 mph Today with gusts from 20-30 mph in some locations. We saw quite a bit of high level clouds pass through our area Today due to a powerful jet stream >130 knots which extended from California east-northeast to North Dakota. Moisture has increased somewhat over our area Today with dewpoints generally in the 30s to around 40 degrees with PWS of around 1/2″. Surface map This Evening featured a warm front across Northern Minnesota into Northeast Wisconsin. Low pressure of 988 mb was centered in Western South Dakota with a cold front stretching from the Western Dakotas through the Central Rockies.
This Evening’s 500 mb analysis:
Pattern change continued to occur Today with the Upper Midwest now in a southwest flow aloft. Plenty of mid/high level moisture continues to stream east-northeast out of the Western U.S. through the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level low (546 meters) was centered close to New Jersey This Evening per RUC model analysis with an upper level trough covering the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province.
Tonight:
Strong low pressure which was over Western South Dakota early This Evening will head northeast toward Eastern North Dakota by dawn. Cold front attached to this low will move east into Western Minnesota Overnight while the warm front analyzed over Northern Minnesota This Evening lifts north during the night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with a few light rain showers possible mainly in Northwest parts of our area, or generally north of a line from Walker to Ely Minnesota. Southwest H85 jet is forecast to increase to 30-50 knots across Northwest Wisconsin/Eastern Minnesota Tonight with a separate low level jet (SW >35 knots) developing in Western parts of our area Overnight. 850 mb temperatures ranging from +11/+15 degrees C in our area This Evening will change little through the night as some warm advection lingers ahead of the low/cold front off to our west. Result from all this will be for unusually warm Overnight lows which will range from the 40s to lower 50s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the exception to this from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior where lows will range from the mid 30s to low 40s. Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night:
Low pressure will track west/north of our area during this period while a cold front attached to this low heads east and through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Moisture will be limited near this boundary with dewpoints generally in the upper 30s and 40s with PWS of .60″-.80″. This front should come through dry, although a few showers can’t be ruled out Tomorrow Morning in far Northern Minnesota. Highs on Wednesday with partly-mostly sunny skies will reach the 60s and 70s while lows Wednesday Night under partly-mostly cloudy skies fall into the 40s and lower 50s, but some 30s are possible in Northern Minnesota. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or west at 10-25 mph with north, east, or west winds Tomorrow Night under 20 mph.
Extended Forecast:
The cold front which will move through our area on Wednesday will stall out and turn into a warm front on Thursday. This boundary is then forecast to lift north out of the Southern Minnesota/Central Wisconsin area by Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning as another strong area of low pressure heads northeast out of the Western High Plains.
A tight thermal gradient will become established across the Upper Midwest for Thursday and Friday with 850 mb temperatures of around zero degrees C across Northwest Minnesota to as high as +14 degrees C in Southern Minnesota! Dewpoints climbing into the 40s/50s will be common along and south of the warm front with 850 td’s rising to around +8 degrees C by Thursday Evening from Southern Minnesota to Eastcentral Minnesota. Forecast models also indicate a rise in ELEVATED CAPES by Thursday Night in Eastcentral Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin with the 12z NAM-WRF model from This Morning showing MUCAPES of 500-1250 j/kg developing by Thursday Night near the warm front along with a SW LLJ of 30-45 knots! Will have to keep a close eye on this to see if there will be enough moisture in place to erupt some thunderstorms in Eastern Minnesota Thursday Night as the warm front lifts north.
The positives in place to cause some Thursday Night thunder would be the strong 850 mb jet along with a strengthening warm front lifting north from Southern Minnesota. The negatives would be the amount of moisture that may or may not be in place.
Still plenty of model differences showing up Today for the Friday-Sunday time period. GFS model has more times than not been the progressive model as of late which would result in mainly dry conditions in our area for Saturday and Sunday with rain chances confined to Friday/Friday Night. Most of the other models Today have a slower solution which would increase our chance for seeing some significant rain at somepoint between Friday and Sunday as low pressure lifts north from the Plains.
High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s and 60s, but 40s will be found along the North Shore of Lake Superior and also in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s and lower 50s, but it will be somewhat cooler near Lake Superior.
5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior
.Tonight… Unusually mild for this time of year away from Lake Superior. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 50, but 35 to 40 close to Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with variable winds close to Lake Superior.
.Wednesday… Unseasonably warm! Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. High 68 to 73 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Variable winds close to Lake Superior shifting to the southwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 55 to 60 but much cooler near Lake Superior.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 37 to 42.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 41 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 23 degrees
Tim
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