Monthly Archives: April 2010

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Friday, April 30th, 2010

Updated 30 day outlook for May 2010. Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Friday, April 30th, 2010.

For Duluth: Equal Chances for Below Normal, Above Normal, or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

Here are some rainfall totals across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from 7 AM CDT Thursday ending at 7 AM CDT Friday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 0.03″

International Falls MN: 0.45″

Brainerd MN: 0.23″

Grand Marais MN: 0.50″

Ashland WI: 0.16″

Northome MN: 0.57″

Littlefork MN: 0.48″

Note: A large storm system helped to ignite a round of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Central Plains on Thursday, April 29th, 2010. There were 77 reports of severe weather on Thursday per SPC website. The most concentrated area of severe storms was over Central Kansas, Southeast Nebraska, Northern-Western Iowa, and extreme Southern Minnesota. 5 out of the 77 reports of severe weather were in the form of tornadoes.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Strong low pressure (986 mb) was located near Baudette Minnesota or in the Northwest part of the state late Today with another strong area of low pressure (986) centered in Southeastern Saskatchewan Province Canada. This system is very dynamic and quite large, but the heavier pockets of rain have been on the scattered side during the past 24 hours. Most locations in our local area have only seen a few hundreths to around one quarter inch of rain since Thursday, with two areas of heavier rain with totals around or greater than one half inch falling in far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota with a seperate area occurring in Southeast parts of Northwest Wisconsin, generally affecting Sawyer, Price, Ashland, and Iron Counties.

Scattered thunderstorms did develop This Afternoon in a very strong shear, but low CAPE environment in portions of Northwest Wisconsin with one lone severe thunderstorm affecting Central-Southern parts of Price County WI around 3 PM Today.

Some rain showers have also occurred at times Today across Northern-Eastcentral Minnesota near the advancing occluded front, but with limited daytime heating keeping instability way down, little if any thunderstorm activity has occurred despite strong shear and good forcing in place in these areas.

Skies for the most part were mostly cloudy in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with high temperatures ranging from the 60s and 70s in Northwest Wisconsin to the 50s in Northern Minnesota with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +7 to +13 degrees C with the warmest air aloft found in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-far Eastern Minnesota. Winds Today were varied from the south to the north, east, and west at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

(534 meter 500 mb low) was centered in Northwestern North Dakota late Today per RUC model analysis with a broad and potent upper level trough covering the Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Central Plains Today. A powerful jet stream 100-120 knots continued to streak NE out of the Central Plains Today on the southeast side of the upper low across the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure averaging 986 mb will track into Southern Manitoba Province during the night. Occluded front extending southeast of this low will continue to lift northeast through Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.

Scattered showers will continue This Evening with strong forcing persisting out ahead of the occluded front along with sufficient amounts of moisture to support some showers as dewpoints remain in the 45-55 degrees, PWS from 1.00″-1.40″ and H85 td’s of +8 to +12 degrees C.

A few thunderstorms are also possible This Evening especially in Northwest Wisconsin and to a lesser extent from Northcentral through Eastcentral Minnesota. Instability remains low, however, with CAPES at or below 250 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to around -2 degrees C, so despite other favorable parameters in place including high amounts of shear and a strong low/front, the lack of instability should keep any thunderstorm from turning severe This Evening.

Any thunderstorm that does develop could contain some dangerous lightning strikes, brief heavy downpours and possibly some small hail and gusty winds up to 40 mph.

As the occluded front exits to our northeast during the mid-late Evening hours, a dry slot will push in from the southwest which will end any threat for showers across our area during the Overnight hours. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with lows in the 40s. Winds will shift to the south and west and increase to 10-25 mph Tonight.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure averaging 986 mb will be centered to our northwest-north during this period. Gusty southwest winds will be found on the south flank of this storm with wind speeds from 10-25 mph with a few higher gusts possible on Saturday. Cold air aloft spreading into the Upper Midwest around this low could help to ignite a few showers Tomorrow and early Tomorrow Night, mainly across Northcentral Minnesota. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 50s with some spots up North possibly holding in the 40s.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will continue to sit to our north on Sunday before it pulls away to our E/NE by next Monday. Cold advection with 850 mb temperatures falling to +2/-4 degrees C will spread south into Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday and Monday which will result in high temperatures holding in the 40s and 50s both days with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees. Spotty rain showers could develop once again on Sunday with mainly dry conditions Sunday Night into Monday Night.

The first week of May looks like a chilly one across the Upper Midwest with Tuesday being the only day where high temps could reach the 60s, except near Lake Superior. A vigorous area of low pressure will scoot east out of Southwestern Canada during the early to middle part of next week while a cold front trailing southwest of this low drops southeast through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday-Wednesday. This system could bring some showers as it moves through the area during the Tuesday/Wednesday time period.

Note: Long range model guidance over the past few days has shown another potent storm system moving into the Southern or Central Plains around the latter part of next week, should this system come far enough north, then it could bring some rain and perhaps even some early May snow to portions of the Upper Midwest sometime late next week. Right now though it appears that this storm would remain too far south to give us any precipitation.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy This Evening with scattered showers. Becoming partly cloudy late and turning breezy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 25 mph late.

.Saturday… Windy. Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 55 to 60. Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. High 48 to 53.

.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday… Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 35 to 40.

.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal High Temperature Today 57 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 35 degrees

Tim

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Thursday, April 29th, 2010

Latest drought information as of Tuesday, April 27th, 2010.

*Severe drought conditions (D2 level) covers all of Cook, most of Lake, and Eastern St. Louis Counties in Northeast Minnesota. The rest of Northern/Eastcentral Minnesota is under abnormally dry and or moderate drought conditions (D0-D1 level)

*All of Northwest Wisconsin…Including the Counties of Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…Iron…Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…And Price are under moderate or severe drought conditions (D1-D2 level)

Weather tidbits:

*A weak sunspot has been observed Today per spaceweather.com website, Today marks the end of a 13 day streak without any activity on the sun.

*April 1st thru April 28th, 2010 precipitation total at Duluth, MN: 0.51″
Departure: 1.42″ below normal

*Only 6 days this month (thru the 28th) has had measurable precipitation (>0.01″) at Duluth, MN.

*April 2nd, 2010 was the last time we had a quarter inch or more of rain at Duluth, MN. Rainfall total that day was 0.29″.

*The other 5 rain totals this month ranged from 0.01″-0.09″.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Strong low pressure (988 mb) was centered near Britton South Dakota (Northeast part of the state) as of mid-Afternoon. An occluded front attached to this low extended through Southwestern Minnesota. Strong southerly low level jet of around 40 knots continued out ahead of this storm Today from the Central Plains north into the Upper Midwest. Moisture has increased due to the LLJ advecting 40+ degree dewpoints north into Western-Southern parts of our local area Today with more humid 50-55 degree dewpoints beginning to surge north into Southern portions of Minnesota late Today. Even juicier air (dews in the 60s) were streaming north out of Texas into Central Oklahoma This Afternoon. PWS have surged to between 0.75″-0.90″ in our area Today while 850 mb td’s have climbed to +6 degrees C in Southern areas as of late Today. There was an area of sprinkles and light rain showers that passed north/east through parts of Northern/Eastern Minnesota Today due to the initial increase in moisture, this line of very light rain or sprinkles continued to march northeast through far Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead of Minnesota late This Afternoon. Some recent spotty sprinkles/drizzle was developing in patches across parts of Northeast/Northcentral Minnesota late Today as moisture continues to increase. High temperatures Today were in the middle 40s to lower 50s from Superior and Downtown Duluth and up the North Shore of Lake Superior with 60s common in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with 50s in Northcentral Minnesota. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +4 to +8 degrees C from northwest to southeast in our local area. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

A very large upper level trough was in place over the Western U.S. Today per water vapor satellite imagery. Southwest flow aloft was occurring across the Plains or on the east side of this upper trough. A lead disturbance has been lifting north into Northwestern Minnesota This Afternoon. An upper level low (534 meters) covered Montana and adjacent areas of Southwestern Canada Today while a 110-130 knot jet streak was found across the Southwest U.S. or on the S-SE side of this big 500 mb trough.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure averaging 987 mb will continue to move generally north across Western Minnesota while an occluded front trailing south/southeast of this low pushes northeast through the night. Dewpoints in the 40s to around 50 degrees along with PWS of 0.75″-1.00″ and 850 mb td’s ranging from +6/+10 degrees C will be found in our area ahead of this system Tonight. A strong low level jet upwards of 40 knots will also continue, especially This Evening. Scattered showers will develop at times along with some areas of drizzle and fog Tonight with a few thunderstorms also occurring across parts of our area This Evening into the early Morning hours of Friday. Shear is running high Today, but limited CAPE (generally around 250 j/kg) and low amounts of moisture should keep any thunderstorm from becoming severe Tonight. Occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours would be the main hazards out of any thunderstorm Tonight. Mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with some patchy fog possible. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure number one pulls off to our northwest on Friday while a secondary low (averaging 986 mb) which was currently over Southeast Colorado (near Trinidad 984 mb) heads north-northeast into the Upper Midwest for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night. The occluded front moving into our local area Tonight will stall out and turn into a cold front Friday Afternoon-Evening as it lifts northeast through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile a warm front which was moving into Northern Iowa late Today will lift northeast and may reach Northcentral parts of Wisconsin by Friday Afternoon.

Airmass will be somewhat humid ahead of this complex system on Friday with dewpoints in the 50s in Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota. It also appears that the atmosphere will become marginally unstable Friday Afternoon with CAPES generally around 500 j/kg across Northwest Wisconsin along with Lifted Indices of zero/-2 degrees C.

Shear will continue to be impressive on Friday across Northwest Wisconsin with a southerly H85 jet increasing to 30-45 knots while 70+ knot 500 mb winds from the southwest approach the area from the Plains. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is extremely high Tomorrow while the Effective Shear increases to around 45 knots or so. This is more than sufficient to support severe weather, but questions regarding the track of the secondary low and how the front sets-up Tomorrow/Tomorrow Evening as well as to the amount of moisture and instability in place is in question, as a result only an isolated risk for severe weather is forecasted Friday Afternoon and Friday Evening…Mainly affecting the following Counties in Northwest Wisconsin…Washburn, Sawyer, Price, and possibly into Ashland and Iron. If severe weather does develop Tomorrow, large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards.

Across Northern/Eastern Minnesota, expect some rain to fall at times Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a few thunderstorms possible as well, mainly in far Eastern Minnesota.

Mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a tight thermal gradient developing with highs in the 40s in Northern Minnesota to the 60s and maybe even a few 70s in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north on Friday with south or west winds Friday Night. Wind speeds will range from 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure averaging 983 mb will be tracking into and through Central Canada this weekend. Some cold air aloft on the backside of this low could touch off a few instability rain showers both Saturday and Sunday across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s both days with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 30s to lower 40s.

Expected rainfall totals from Tonight through early Saturday:

On average about 0.10″-0.35″ of rain is forecast to fall across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but localized higher totals greater than 0.50″ are possible in any thunderstorm.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible between 8 PM-1 AM. Low 45 to 50 and around 40 near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. A few thunderstorms also possible, mainly during the Afternoon. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. A few thunderstorms also possible, mainly early. Low 40 to 45. Wind shifting southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. A few showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40.

.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 34 degrees

Tim

Issued at 4:45 PM CDT, Wednesday April 28th, 2010

Cold start to the day around portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures that occurred earlier Today, source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 28 degrees

Hibbing MN: 21 degrees

Two Harbors MN: 21 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 18 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 18 degrees

Ashland WI: 19 degrees

Superior WI: 23 degrees

Hayward WI: 18 degrees

Butternut WI: 20 degrees

Upson WI: 19 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1994… 5.0″ of snow fell at Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Southerly flow has commenced in our area Today as high pressure of 1014 mb moves into the Central/Southern Great Lakes while a few strong low pressure centers ranging from 986-996 mb track through the Rockies. The pressure gradient has tightened Today allowing for some gusty south and southeast winds across our area, wind speeds of 10-25 mph have occurred Today with a few higher gusts in Western parts of our area. Note: 30-50 mph S/SE winds have occurred Today over parts of Western Minnesota! To go along with the strong winds, humidity levels were very low with Afternoon dewpoints only in the teens, 20s, and 30s around our area with relative humidity values of just 10%-35%. The combination of the wind and low humidity has resulted in extreme fire danger in all of Northern Minnesota Today with very high fire danger in Northwest Wisconsin. Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service for portions of our area due to the potential of extreme fire weather growth. High temperatures were in the 50s and 60s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +4 to +7 degrees C from northeast to southwest in our area.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

500 mb ridge covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. Upper level trough was digging south/east out of the Pacific Northwest late Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a (534-540 meter) H5 low spinning around across Montana and adjacent areas of Southwest Canada. A strong jet stream up to 130 knots was in place from Central California through the Central Rockies or on the S/SE side of the upper low/trough. Southwest flow aloft was developing Today across the Northern Plains/Western High Plains as this Western system pushes east. A vigorous upper level trough and northwest flow aloft continued to cover the Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada Today per RUC model analysis with some heavy Spring snow being reported in parts of New England and nearby states over the past 24 hours.

Tonight:

*Red Flag Warning* is in effect until 8 PM CDT This Evening for the following Counties in Minnesota… Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…Cass MN…Crow Wing MN…And Aitkin MN…

Low level jet of 35-45 knots will overspread the area Tonight with warm/moist advection beginning to occur Overnight. Strong low pressure (around 987 mb) will remain over the Northern Rockies/Western High Plains through the night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight with a few light showers or sprinkles possible in Western/Northern areas. Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Strong low pressure averaging 985 mb will be tracking N/NE out of the Western High Plains and is forecast to reach Western Minnesota by Thursday Night. A warm front, occluded front/cold front attached to this low will be moving north/east across our area through this period. Southerly 850 mb jet of 30-50 knots will occur at times during this period out ahead of this dynamic system. Moisture will continue to increase, but with that said it does not appear that will see dewpoints get much higher than the 40s to around 50 degrees around this area. PWS are forecast to increase from around one quarter inch This Afternoon to around 1.00″ by Tomorrow Afternoon while 850 mb td’s rise to around +8 degrees C.

Scattered showers will likely occur at times Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night across our area with a few thunderstorms possible as well, especially from late Tomorrow Afternoon into Tomorrow Night.

The Storm Prediction Center has included Southern portions of our area in a *Slight Risk* for Severe Thunderstorms Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night… This would include the Counties of…Crow Wing MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…Burnett WI…And Washburn WI…

Instability doesn’t look too impressive this far north with CAPES generally around 150-350 j/kg with LI’S around zero/-1 degree C.

I don’t believe severe weather will be a huge factor anywhere in this area due to the limited moisture/instability, but with the overall dynamics of this system (110+ knot jet) pushing into the Plains we should see at least some general thunderstorm activity across parts of our area by Tomorrow/Tomorrow Night.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Thursday with highs in the 50s and 60s, 40s near Lake Superior. Mostly cloudy skies will occur Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east on Thursday at 10-25 mph with south, east, or west winds Tomorrow Night generally under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Strong low pressure averaging 983 mb will pass by to our northwest/north from Friday into Saturday while we could see a secondary low track from the Plains toward the Upper Great Lakes during the Friday-early Saturday time frame. A cold front will continue to move east across the Upper Midwest on Friday while the 500 mb trough settles into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest for Friday/Saturday.

Some showers could persist at times across our area on Friday with an isolated risk for thunderstorms, mainly in Northwestern Wisconsin the way it looks now. A few showers are possible on Saturday, mostly in Northern Minnesota.

High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 40s, but some 30s are possible in Western areas for Saturday Night.

Rainfall totals from Thursday through Saturday:

0.10″-0.25″ of rain is forecast throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with localized higher amounts in any thunderstorm.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 38 to 43. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low 43 to 48. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday… Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night… Variable cloudiness. Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Tim

Issued at 7:53 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

…All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies were found throughout our area Today with high temperatures ranging from the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. 850 mb temperatures as of 7 PM ranged from +2 to +6 degrees C from east to west across our area. Winds Today were out of the north or east generally under 20 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured high pressure of 1014 mb centered near the Apostle Islands (South Shore of Lake Superior) A weak trough covered Northwest Minnesota and Eastern Manitoba Province.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Upper level trough was shifting east out of the Western Great Lakes early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery. This trough covered Eastern Canada as well as the Central and Southern Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley valley region with a (528 meter) H5 low centered in Northern New York. An upper level ridge covered the Northern/Central Plains while a strong upper level trough associated with 60-90 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls tracks into areas west of the Rockies. A strong jet 120-140 knots was found from the Central Pacific Ocean through Central California late Today on the south side of the swirling 500 mb low which covered the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

High pressure will be in control of our weather Tonight resulting in mostly clear skies while lows drop into the 20s and 30s, maybe even a few teens in the typical cold spots. Areas of frost are possible Overnight. Winds Tonight will be out of the north, east, or south under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Note: *Fire Weather Watch* is in effect from Wednesday Afternoon through Wednesday Evening for parts of Northcentral Minnesota. Counties included in the watch are: Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…Cass MN…Crow Wing MN…And Aitkin MN…

Southerly flow will develop across our area during this period as strong low pressure around 990 mb heads east across the Northern Rockies. Mostly sunny skies are forecast on Wednesday with partly-mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph. Most of our area should remain dry this period, but a few showers could develop late Wednesday Night in Western areas, mainly in Cass and Crow Wing Counties Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

A large upper level trough will head east out of the Western U.S. from Thursday through Friday while strong low pressure averaging 985 mb passes by to our W/NW by Friday while a secondary low develops over the Plains and lifts N/NE toward Lake Superior sometime Friday into early Saturday.

Southerly flow will continue ahead of the trough which will transport a more humid airmass north into our area. Dewpoints are expected to reach the 40s to lower 50s in most of our area for Thursday and Friday while PWS increase to around .75″-1.00″ later this week.

Showers will be possible at times across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday, but how much rain falls and how widespread it will be remain uncertain at this time due to the models not being in very good agreement on the overall speed of this system. The GFS model continues to be the quickest of the models with the 15z SREF following suit whereas the NAM-WRF, EUROPEAN, and GEM-GLOBAL models offer a slower solution. The slower solution would result in a better chance for some decent rain totals across most of our area with a threat for scattered thunderstorms as well. The faster solutions would result in less rainfall and little if any thunderstorm activity. The models should converge on a common solution within the next 24 hours.

The weather this weekend is also uncertain at this time, and it will depend on where the 500 mb low sets-up, if it’s far enough to our north, then mainly dry conditions would occur with just isolated showers mainly in Northern areas…If the upper low is farther south, then showers would become somewhat more frequent.

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be mainly in the 50s and 60s with cooler temps near Lake Superior. Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 27 to 32. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior. Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low 43 to 48. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Showers and isolated thunderstorms. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 40 to 45. Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday… Partly sunny. Showers possible. High 55 to 60. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 56 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 34 degrees

Tim