5/31/10: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 1:33 PM CDT, Monday, May 31st, 2010

Note: A cold front pushed east across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday 5/30/10. This boundary did produce some showers and thunderstorms across our area, but as is often the case during the warm season, the precipitation that developed was on the scattered side. Here are some rain totals that occurred on Sunday. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.05″

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 0.09″

Hayward WI (Sawyer County) 0.12″

Ashland WI (Ashland County) 0.08″

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.16″

Kabetogama MN (St. Louis County) 0.43″

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 0.32″

Upson WI (Iron County) 0.20″

Saron WI (Washburn County) 0.31″

Webster WI (Burnett County) 0.13″

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

May end’s on a mild note across our local area with high temperatures generally in the 70s with 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM between +10/+11 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints were on the low side Today with generally 40s to around 50 degrees across our area with PWS ranging from .50″-.70″. Surface map This Afternoon featured high pressure of 1016 mb centered in Eastcentral Minnesota. A warm front stretched from Southeast Manitoba Province to Northwest Minnesota with a cold front across the Central Dakotas. The atmosphere was destabilizing across parts of Northern Minnesota This Afternoon with latest meso-analysis showing CAPES up to 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices falling to around zero degrees C with low level lapse rates of 7.5-9.0 c/km. Isolated showers have developed within the past hour in portions of Koochiching, Itasca, and Northern Cass Counties in Northern Minnesota with movement toward the east-northeast.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

West-southwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today with several upper level disturbances tracking generally in a west-east fashion through the Western U.S./Northern Plains/and Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

A cold front which was over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will track east, reaching Northcentral Minnesota by dawn. The presence of a southwest low level jet 20-35 knots out ahead of this boundary combined with some instability (CAPES <500 j/kg, Lifted Indices around zero degrees C) will help to trigger a few showers or thunderstorms through the night, primarily in Northern Minnesota. A seperate area of spotty showers or thunderstorms could get going later in the night in parts of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but chances of this occurring are relatively low. The severe weather threat Tonight is minimal in Northern Minnesota due to the low amounts of moisture and instability in place, but there is some shear along with stronger winds aloft in this area, so some gusty winds and or small hail along with occasional lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours are possible in the strongest activity Tonight. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found across our area Tonight with lows mainly in the 50s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or north under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

A cold front is expected to be over Northcentral Minnesota Tuesday Morning, this boundary is then forecast to sink south-southeast through Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tuesday Afternoon into early Tuesday Evening.

…SEVERE THREAT…

The atmosphere along and ahead of this front will consist of CAPES from 500-1500 j/kg, Lifted Indices of zero/-5 degrees C…Highest values in both departments in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds aloft will also be rather strong with W-SW H5 winds up to 45 knots while an upper level jet of around 90 knots sets-up near or over Northern Minnesota on Tuesday. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear will increase to 30-45 knots on Tuesday in Eastern Minnesota/Northwest Wisconsin with 0-3 KM Helicities maxing out at around 200 m2/s2 per 09z SREF model.

The potential does exist for a complex of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail to spread E/SE through Southern parts of our local area on Tuesday. The models differ with the exact placement of this feature, the 12z NAM is farther north, while the 12z GFS has a farther south solution. At this time, it appears that areas south of a line from Hinckley Minnesota to Park Falls Wisconsin would be at greatest risk for seeing possible severe weather Tuesday Afternoon…This would include the Counties of Pine MN…Burnett WI…Washburn WI…Sawyer WI…and Price WI…

A few showers or thunderstorms could also occur over the rest of our area on Tuesday before things dry out Tuesday Night as the main boundary exits to our south while high pressure begins to head east out of the Northern Rockies.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night across our area with high temperatures on Tuesday in the 60s and 70s, but a few locales in Northwest Wisconsin could reach the 80s! Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or north on Tuesday at 10-20 mph with north or west winds Tuesday Night under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

The upper level pattern will consist of a nearly zonal west-east flow from Thursday through the weekend. Several upper level disturbances will continue to work east through the Upper Midwest but with such a fast flow aloft, the models are having a difficult time from one run to the next in regards to the timing of such features.

Right now it looks like Thursday and Thursday Night will be dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, then from Friday through the weekend we could see some spells of showers or thunderstorms. Severe weather chances look low at this time, but this may change in coming days.

High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible Overnight. Low 50 to 55. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming north during the Afternoon. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible early. Low 45 to 50. Wind north at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 67 to 72.

.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53.

.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 65 to 70. Chahnce of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 45 degrees

Tim

5/29/10: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 2:36 PM CDT, Saturday, May 29th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1986… A record high temperature of 87 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

On this date in 1984… A record low temperature of 29 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Note: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tracked east-southeast through Northern areas of Minnesota on Friday. Here are some rainfall totals that occurred up in that area. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls MN (Koochiching County) 0.28″

Cook MN (St. Louis County) 0.14″

Littlefork MN (Koochiching County) 0.43″

3 miles East of Orr MN (St. Louis County) 0.21″

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Debris clouds (high level cirrus) have been pushing east across Northern areas of Minnesota Today as strong to severe thunderstorm clusters have been roaming across Southern portions of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario Province Canada Today. The remainder of our area saw mainly sunny skies Today. High temperatures were mainly in the low to mid 80s Today across our area with a few locales in Western/Southern areas (Brainerd, Pine River, Hinckley, and Siren) nearing 90 degrees This Afternoon. The cool spot continued to be found at the head of Lake Superior and up the North Shore of Lake Superior where highs Today stayed in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM were right around +17 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints This Afternoon were running in the 40s and lower 50s with PWS from 0.80″-0.90″. Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured low pressure of 1004 mb centered in Northern North Dakota near Minot. A cold front attached to this low extended south through the Central Dakotas while a stationary front was in place across far Northern Minnesota.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Upper level ridge (582 meters) continued to cover areas from the Upper Midwest through the Central and Southern Plains, east through the Western/Central Great Lakes and south through the Ohio Valley per RUC model analysis. An upper level low (576 meters) was centered in Central Mississippi Today with little movement noted with this system per water vapor satellite imagery. A northwest flow aloft was in place from Eastern Canada through the Northeast U.S. Today while a fairly vigorous upper level trough inches slowly east out of the Northern/Central Rockies. An upper level low (558 meters) embedded within this H5 trough covered areas of Eastern Alberta/Western Saskatchewan Province Canada Today while a rather strong upper level jet (90-120 knot winds) was in place from Eastern Utah, north-northeast through Central Montana.

Tonight:

Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The frontal boundary in far Northern Minnesota will move little through the night while the cold front across the Central Dakotas heads east toward Western areas of Minnesota by dawn. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Tonight near the cold front to our west, some of this activity could move into Western parts of our area Overnight, generally west of a line from International Falls to Leader. Lows Tonight will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure is forecast to move from it’s current position which was Northern North Dakota to the border of Southern Ontario Province/far Northern Minnesota on Sunday, this low will then exit to our northeast by Sunday Night. A cold front attached to this low will pass east through our local area Sunday and Sunday Evening.

The cold front is forecast to move through Northern Minnesota from mid-Morning Sunday to early Sunday Afternoon. The cold front is forecast to pass through Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota around mid Afternoon Sunday with the cold front passing through Northwestern Wisconsin late Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Evening.

The airmass along and ahead of this front will consist of dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s with 850 mb td’s ranging from +8/+14 degrees C. PWS will range from 1.00″-1.50″.

The atmosphere will become marginally unstable by Sunday Afternoon/Evening mainly in Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast Minnesota and far Eastern Minnesota with CAPES generally ranging from 500-1250 j/kg, highest values in Northwest Wisconsin with Lifted Indices of zero/-2 degrees C.

Low level jet looks weak along and ahead of the cold front on Sunday with speeds generally around 20-25 knots, winds aloft are forecast to range from 25-40 knots while a rather potent upper level jet with wind speeds up to 90 knots pushes east out of the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest by Sunday Afternoon-Evening. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is forecast to range from 25-35 knots Sunday Afternoon with Effective Bulk Shear <30 knots per SREF model.

There should be enough moisture and instability in place to generate some showers or thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday Evening as the cold front moves through, the upper jet approaching from the west should also help with some forcing which should allow some additional precipitation to break out behind the cold front.

Rain that does develop should remain scattered the way it looks now with most locations having a 1-3 hour window where they may see some rain. Precipitation amounts are forecast to remain under 0.10″, but any thunderstorm that develops could drop locally higher amounts.

Severe potential continues to look low across our area Sunday Afternoon-Evening with the main threat from any thunderstorm being dangerous lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours and possibly some small hail under one half inch in diameter and gusty winds to 40 mph.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s in Northwest Wisconsin with mainly 70s in Northern Minnesota. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Winds on Sunday will be out of the south or west at 10-20 mph with northwest or west winds Sunday Night at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A new cold front will drop southeast across Northern Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Morning. This next disturbance will bring another risk for a few showers or thunderstorms to our local area Monday into early Tuesday, this next system looks quite similar to Sunday’s with most locations having about a 1-3 hour period where they could see some rain. Severe threat looks low on Monday with minimal instability and moisture forecasted by the models (CAPES generally under 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices around zero degrees C) with dewpoints generally in the 40s to lower 50s. Winds aloft look stronger on Monday compared to Sunday, however, so if the instability and moisture end up being higher than expected, then we may be dealing with an isolated severe weather risk across Northern-Eastern Minnesota Monday Afternoon-Evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night look mainly dry at the the moment across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. The next chance for some rain will come around the middle of next week as low pressure pushes northeast from the Central Plains.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s Monday Night and Tuesday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Clear to partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58, a little cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. Scattered Afternoon showers possible, isolated thunderstorms also possible. High 70 to 75. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west. Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday Night… Becoming partly cloudy. Showers possible before 6 PM. Low 45 to 50. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Memorial Day… Partly sunny. Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 65 to 70.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 43 to 48.

.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 68 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

5/27/10: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 2:58 PM CDT, Thursday, May 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 2008… A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

Weather tidbits:

*Today marks the 13th day in a row with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, MN.

*12 out of the last 13 days has featured a maximum temperature of 70 degrees or higher at Duluth, MN.

*Average monthly temperature thru the 26th at Duluth, MN: 52.2 degrees which is 1.2 degrees Above Normal.

*2 days during the month of May has recorded a rainfall total >1.00″ at Duluth, MN. 5/13/10: 1.03″ and on 5/23/10: 3.96″

*The series of thunderstorms that tracked through Duluth, MN on Sunday May 23rd, 2010 dropped 3.96″ of rain at the Duluth National Weather Service which erases the precipitation deficit that we were in prior to Sunday. All it took was a matter of an hour or so for a precipitation surplus to happen.

Precipitation total since 1/1/10: 9.15″
Normal: 8.10″
Departure: 1.05″ Above Normal

Precipitation total since 3/1/10: 7.64″
Normal: 6.15″
Departure: 1.49″ Above Normal

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Another beautiful late Spring day across our local area with low humidity (dewpoints generally in the 40s to around 50 degrees) with Afternoon PWS ranging from 0.40″-0.60″ across Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota, to 0.70″-0.90″ in Northern Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the mainly in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees with 60s close to Lake Superior. 850 mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranging from +10/+13 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Winds Today were out of the north, east, or west under 15 mph. Mostly sunny-sunny skies covered our local area Today with just some high level clouds moving across Northwest parts of our area. Surface map late Today featured high pressure of 1023 mb centered in Eastern Minnesota with a stationary front running west to east in Northern Minnesota while a cold front was centered over Central Lake Superior.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Upper level ridge (582-588 meters) was re-developing from the Upper Midwest south through the Central Plains Today per RUC model analysis. Southwest H5 flow covered most of the Western U.S. Today with an upper level low (552-558 meters) in place over the Pacific Northwest. An axis of strong winds aloft (90-130 knots) extended from Central California northeast to Southwestern Montana late Today per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Little change in the weather is expected through this period with high pressure slowly pushing off to our east while the stationary front currently in Northern Minnesota sinks a little south Tonight and Friday before retreating back north as a warm front Friday Night. Mostly clear skies will be found across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and Tomorrow Night with partly cloudy-sunny skies on tap for Friday. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, but some 30s are possible in the typical cold spots. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s and 50s. Variable winds will turn to the south/east Friday and Friday Night with wind speeds under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday will be dry across our local area with high temperatures mainly in the 80s with a few locales possibly inching toward the 90 degree mark! It will be cooler though especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior. An area of low pressure will be tracking east-northeast across the Northern Plains on Saturday and will move into Central Canada or the Northern parts of Lake Superior (depending on the model) for Sunday Night and Monday. The forecast models Today are slowing the progression of this system with the EUROPEAN model the slowest of them all.

It now appears that the cold front will be tracking through Northern, Northeast, and Eastcentral Minnesota Sunday Afternoon-Evening with the cold front passing through Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Night.

The airmass along and ahead of this boundary will become somewhat moist and unstable this weekend with dewpoints climbing into the 50s-60s while H85 td’s increase to +10/+14 degrees C with PWS of 1.00-1.30″.

Instability will be on the rise as well for Sunday with CAPES generally around 1000 j/kg. Shear doesn’t look too impressive at the moment with a weak low level jet in place <25 knots, strongest winds aloft are expected to remain post-frontal, with generally 25-35 knot 500 mb wind speeds found in Eastcentral Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Afternoon-Evening. There will, however, be a rather strong upper level jet edging east into Western Minnesota on Sunday with an area of 70-100 knot winds across the Northern Plains and adjacent areas of Western Minnesota late this weekend.

A few showers or thunderstorms could move into Northwest parts of our local area for Saturday Night with locations from International Falls to Northome, south to Cass Lake possibly seeing a few showers at that time.

The risk for showers or thunderstorms will then overspread the rest of our area Sunday and Sunday Night although right now it doesn’t look like it’ll be a steady all day rain, but any thunderstorm that develops could drop some heavier downpours. The risk for severe weather isn’t the greatest, but an isolated severe storm could develop late Sunday Afternoon-Evening, mainly in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin based on the latest model projections.

Low temperatures Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs Sunday in the 60s and 70s, but some 80s are possible mainly in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s. High temperatures for Memorial Day will be in the 60s, but some Northern areas could hold in the 50s as a fairly strong push of cold advection (850 mb temperatures from -4/+2 degrees C) drops south behind Sunday’s low/cold frontal passage Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s. The risk for a few showers will continue on Monday, especially in Northern Minnesota, the remainder of our area should be dry on Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 47 to 52. Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 45 to 50. Chance of rain 20%.

.Memorial Day… Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 44 degrees

Tim

5/26/10: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992… A record low temperature of 28 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

…RECORD EVENT…

A record high temperature of 86 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. The previous record for the date was 85 degrees which was set in 1914!

Here are the storm reports from Northern Wisconsin and far Northeast Minnesota from Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Catawba WI (Price County) 1:00 PM CDT: Thunderstorm wind damage, power lines and trees down.

Prentice WI (Price County) 1:15 PM CDT: 1.00″ diameter hail. Very strong winds were also reported.

5 miles South of Phillips WI (Price County) 1:19 PM CDT: 0.75″ diameter hail.

Park Falls WI (Price County) 2:05 PM CDT: 0.75″ diameter hail.

Mercer WI (Iron County) 2:30 PM CDT: Thunderstorm wind damage. Some trees down. Estimated wind gusts of 50 mph.

1 mile Northeast of Hayward WI (Sawyer County) Thunderstorm wind gust. 44 mph thunderstorm outflow winds.

High Bridge WI (Ashland County) 2:50 PM CDT: 0.88″ diameter hail. Gusty winds blew a few small branches off trees.

Butternut WI (Ashland County) 3:15 PM CDT: 0.88″ diameter hail. Some broken tree limbs down at Butternut and Park Falls due to wind gusts.

Silver Bay MN (Lake County) 4:13 PM CDT: Marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 mph.

Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 4:40 PM CDT: Marine thunderstorm wind gust of 41 mph.

20 miles North-Northwest of Grand Marais MN (Cook County) 5:15 PM CDT: Poplar Lake Gunflint Trail, a few large trees down. Power lines down at Trail Center.

Here are some high temperatures that occurred across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday, May 25th, 2010. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 86 degrees

International Falls MN: 86 degrees

Brainerd MN: 85 degrees

Hibbing MN: 87 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 88 degrees

Ely MN: 88 degrees

Orr MN: 90 degrees

Hinckley MN: 86 degrees

Ashland WI: 87 degrees

Hayward WI: 90 degrees

Siren WI: 90 degrees

Phillips WI: 90 degrees

Cook MN: 87 degrees

Madeline Island WI: 86 degrees

June 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 20th, 2010:

For Duluth:

Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Temperatures and Precipitation.

June 2010 through August 2010 outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center on May 20th, 2010:

For Duluth:

33% Chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal Chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal Precipitation.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

High pressure of 1022 mb was centered in Western Minnesota late Today with another 1022 mb high up in Central Saskatchewan Province Canada. The cold front which passed through our local area on Tuesday was now centered well to our south-east Today. Partly cloudy-sunny skies were found across our area Today with very pleasant late May temperatures in the 70s to around 80 degrees while dewpoints have dropped into the 30s and 40s Today. 850 mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +8/+10 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +11/+13 degrees C from Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastcentral Minnesota. Winds Today were out of the north or west at 10-20 mph.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis. Upper level ridge (582 meters) covered a large part of the U.S…from the Central-Southern Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley, Central-Southern Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Upper level low (576 meters) was centered east of the Carolinas Today per water vapor satellite imagery/RUC model analysis. Another potent upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest/Eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a south-southwest flow aloft occurring out ahead of this system across the Western U.S. Today.

Tonight through Thursday Night:

High pressure will be the main influence on our weather as it slides east across the Upper Midwest during this period. Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Tonight through Tomorrow Night with lows in the 40s and 50s both nights while highs Tomorrow reach the 70s and lower 80s with cooler temperatures at times closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the north, east, or south under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will head off to our east for Friday and Saturday with a southerly flow developing across the Upper Midwest on the backside of this high. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s both Friday and Saturday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Eventually we will see an area of low pressure make it’s way out of the Northern Rockies and into Central Canada/Upper Midwest this weekend, the forecast models Today seem to be coming into better agreement with the timing of this system. It appears right now that will see a cold front pass through our area on Sunday, this system looks to have favorable upper level support going for it, but moisture may be somewhat limited, also the overall timing of the cold front doesn’t appear to be too favorable for thunderstorm development in Northern Minnesota, but a slightly better risk for thunderstorms would exist in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as the cold front moves through these areas Sunday Afternoon or Sunday Evening. If more moisture can get drawn north into this system and if it can slow down just a little more, then we could have a risk for a few severe thunderstorms over parts of our area late this weekend.

This system is forecast to pull off to our north/east by Sunday Night and Monday with cooler temperatures occurring in it’s wake, could also see a few lingering showers mainly around International Falls, Crane Lake, Ely, and Grand Marais for Sunday Night and Monday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 48 to 53. Wind northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but it may turn cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50. Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Friday… Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 67 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 43 degrees

Tim

Lightning video from Duluth, MN

A series of thunderstorms developed and tracked through portions of Duluth, Minnesota Sunday Night, May 23rd, 2010. Here are two videos I shot from those storms. Those storms dropped very heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time to the West-North parts of Duluth, 2 to nearly 4″ of rain fell which led to some flooding late Sunday Evening. Thanks for viewing.

Tim