6/30/10: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:08 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1988… A record low temperature of 36 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN.

…Top 10 wettest Junes on record at the following locations in Northwest Wisconsin… Source: NWS Duluth, MN…

*Solon Springs, WI: 8.01″ of rain during June 2010 making it the 9th wettest June on record. The wettest June occurred back in 1967 when 9.92″ of rain fell.

*Gordon, WI: 6.34″ of rain fell during June 2010 making it the 8th wettest June on record. The wettest June occurred in 1981 when 9.10″ of rain fell

Note: If no precipitation falls at the Duluth Airport before Midnight Tonight, then this will be the first time with back to back days with no measurable precipitation (at least a trace) since June 2nd and 3rd.

Another chilly Morning in portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from earlier Today, source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 44 degrees

International Falls MN: 36 degrees

Hibbing MN: 35 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 39 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 36 degrees

Orr MN: 36 degrees

Cook MN: 37 degrees

Eveleth MN: 37 degrees

Aitkin MN: 39 degrees

Cloquet MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 39 degrees

Superior WI: 43 degrees

Kabetogama MN: 38 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 36 degrees

Embarrass MN: 32 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 33 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 43 degrees

Butternut WI: 40 degrees

Upson WI: 39 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Changes in the weather pattern were starting to occur Today across portions of our area as a strong ridge of high pressure heads east into Northwest Wisconsin while a weak disturbance combined with some F-GEN forcing and a little push of moist air rides east-southeast across Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon or on the backside of the high to our east. The result from this has been for an increase in mid level clouds along with an area of sprinkles or light rain showers in Northcentral Minnesota This Afternoon while mainly sunny skies continued in Northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures Today were in the lower to middle 70s Today, but 60s were common at the head of Lake Superior and along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior. The lake air doesn’t have quite the bite as it has recently, however, and this is partially due to water temperatures which have climbed into the middle 50s/lower 60s in portions of Western Lake Superior in recent days per MSGC website. One last day with low dewpoints Today with readings in the 40s and 50s across our area while Afternoon PWS ranged from 0.50″-0.80″ along and east of a line from about International Falls to Duluth down to Trego, while Western parts of our area from Grand Rapids and Hinckley back through Aitkin and the Brainerd Lakes region had PWS up to 1.00″ late Today. Winds across our area were variable to calm in Northwest Wisconsin with southeast or east winds in Northern-Eastern Minnesota under 20 mph.

Today’s upper level analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Today per RUC model analysis with an upper level ridge (588-594 meters) in place over the Northern-Central Plains where high temperatures Today reached the 80s and 90s with even some lower 100s in Central South Dakota with dewpoints especially over the Dakotas in the very steamy mid/upper 60s Today! 850 mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +9/+12 degrees C in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast Minnesota to +13/+16 degrees C in Western-Southwest areas. +20/+32 degree C H85 temperatures were widespread across the Dakotas and Western High Plains Today and some of that air will advect E/NE into the Upper Midwest during the next three days.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our east Tonight with some warm/moist advection continuing to spread east through the Northern half of Minnesota. A warm front organizing over the Central Dakotas This Afternoon will also lift E-NE Tonight with a 30-50 knot low level jet developing to our west. A few sprinkles or light rain showers are possible in Northern/Eastern Minnesota This Evening, otherwise it should remain dry Tonight with lows mainly in the 50s, but some 40s are possible in the typical cold spots in Northwest Wisconsin and extreme Northeast Minnesota. Winds Tonight will be out of the southeast or east under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Southerly winds will begin to increase during this period thanks to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure to our east and low pressure centered well to our west. A rather robust low level jet (30-45 knots) will also develop across the Upper Midwest during this period and this will help in transporting deeper moisture and warmer air into our area. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s, but 60s will be common from Superior and Downtown Duluth and along the North Shore of Lake Superior thanks to an easterly component to those south winds. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will rise into the 50s and 60s across our area during this period with PWS ranging from 0.80″-1.25″. The warm front lifting northeast through our area could cause a few showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday Night, mainly in far Northern-far Northeast Minnesota, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is even possible as far south as Hibbing and Two Harbors on Thursday. Partly-mostly sunny skies can be expected Tomorrow with clear-partly cloudy skies Tomorrow Night. Winds out of the south will increase to 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Southwest upper level flow will be in place over the Upper Midwest from Friday through early next week. A cold front which will reach the Dakotas Tomorrow through Saturday will make slow headway through Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend into early next week. It does appear that there will be ample amounts of moisture in place along and ahead of this boundary to support a heavy rain threat as dewpoints surge into the 60s with even some 70s possible Saturday and or Sunday, PWS look to range from 1.25″-1.75″ per 15z SREF model from Today. All this could create a heavy rain event at times over some portions of the Upper Midwest especially from Saturday Night into Sunday Evening. Thunderstorms will occur as well from late Saturday into Sunday, but the overall severe threat looks relatively low at this point due to marginal amounts of instability…

High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be mainly in the 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few locales possibly getting close to 90 degrees! Low temperatures Friday Night and Saturday Night will be generally in the 60s, but it’s not out of the question that some areas stay in the lower 70s Saturday Night.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Variable cloudiness. A few sprinkles possible This Evening. Low 50 to 55. Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… More humid. Warmer, especially away from Lake Superior. Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Warm, breezy, and humid. Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86. South winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Friday Night… Warm and humid. Mostly clear. Low 62 to 67.

.Saturday… Warm, breezy, and humid. Partly cloudy. High 83 to 88. South winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night… Very warm, humid. Late night showers or thunderstorms possible under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Low 67 to 72. Chance of rain 30%.

.Fourth of July… Humid. Occasional showers or thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 60%.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

6/29/10: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1992… A record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, MN. Note: We missed the record low temperature by just 2 degrees at the Duluth Airport Today.

A chilly start to the day across portions of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures that were reported earlier Today. Source: NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth MN: 42 degrees

International Falls MN: 36 degrees

Hibbing MN: 35 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 34 degrees

Ely MN: 37 degrees

Bigfork MN: 36 degrees

Cloquet MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 40 degrees

Superior WI: 43 degrees

Babbitt MN: 33 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 38 degrees

Embarrass MN: 31 degrees

Floodwood MN: 37 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 34 degrees

3 miles South of Ashland WI: 42 degrees

Butternut WI: 43 degrees

Upson WI: 41 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Mainly sunny skies were found across our area Today, although there’s been some clouds at times mainly in extreme Northeast Minnesota, around the Pigeon River, Grand Portage, Hovland, and Grand Marais area. High temperatures Today were in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees which is about 5-7 degrees below average for late June, but with the full sunshine around it didn’t feel that cool. Dewpoints This Afternoon were only in the 30s and 40s with PWS around one half inch! Winds Today were variable under 15 mph. Surface map This Afternoon featured a 1024 mb high pressure ridge extending from Western Ontario Province through Central Minnesota, south through the Central Plains.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

A large upper level low (540 meters) was heading south/east from Southern Hudson Bay/Eastern Ontario Province This Afternoon per water vapor satellite imagery. Note: 850 mb temps near zero degrees C with surface temps of 38-40 degrees along with low enough critical thickness values would be favorable for some snow to mix in with any precipitation that was falling near this upper low over portions of Eastern Canada Today, it’s a very chilly airmass for late June, but luckly the heart of the real cold air stayed well to our northeast. An upper level ridge (588 meters) was beginning to push east across the Northern Plains Today with 850 mb temperatures ranging from +20/+32 degrees C This Afternoon across the Rockies and Western High Plains underneath this ridge with temperatures from 85-95 degrees Today from the Rockies east to the Central-Western Dakotas per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Mainly clear skies albeit a tad on the hazy/smoky side at times across our local area with low temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s, but some 30s will probably occur one last night in the typical cold spots. Ridge of high pressure will remain over our area Tonight with variable winds under 12 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure ridge shifts east of our area with a southerly return flow beginning to develop, highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with one last day of low humidity levels. Lows Tomorrow Night will be generally in the 50s. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday with clear-partly cloudy skies Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Increasing warmth and humidity will be the weather highlights across the Upper Midwest from Thursday into Saturday as a cold front and area of low pressure center themselves over the Northern Plains while high pressure remains anchored to our southeast. A S/SW wind will lock in during the day Thursday and will linger into Saturday the way it looks now.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach the 70s and 80s across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with a few 90s not out of the question Friday or Saturday depending on the amount of sunshine. It will be cooler at the head of Lake Superior and up the North Shore of Lake Superior on Thursday, but any cooling should be confined to areas northeast of Downtown Duluth by Friday and Saturday. Dewpoints will start to increase Thursday with 50s/60s spreading into our local area, with mainly 60s on tap for Friday and Saturday. Low temperatures Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

It should remain dry in our area Thursday and Friday, although a warm front will be moving northeast on Thursday, although with the upper ridge over the area and warming aloft, it doesn’t look like any showers or thunderstorms will develop as this warm front moves through. Chances for showers or thunderstorms will be with us this weekend and early next week as a cold front pushes slowly into the Upper Midwest while some low pressure disturbances ride northeast along this boundary. The set-up appears somewhat favorable for periods of heavy rainfall and possibly some severe weather this weekend and early next week, but what area/s are affected is uncertain at this time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mainly clear with some haze and smoke. Low 41 to 46, a little warmer in Downtown Duluth. Wind north to northeast under 12 mph.

.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73 but a little cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 50 to 55. Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.

.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 62 to 67.

.Saturday… Partly cloudy. High 82 to 87.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

6/28/10: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:09 PM CDT, Monday, June 28th, 2010

30 Day outlook for Duluth, MN…Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on June 17th, 2010:

*July 2010: For Duluth, equal chances for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

90 day outlook for Duluth, MN…Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on June 17th, 2010:

*July through September 2010: For Duluth, equal chances for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Weather tidbits: Source: NWS Duluth, MN and Chanhassen, MN.

*Unofficial total of 39 tornadoes in Minnesota from June 17th thru the 27th, 2010.

*June 17th, 2010 was initally the most active tornado day in 2010 across the Country with 77 tornado reports in North Dakota, Minnesota, far Northern Iowa, and far Northwest Wisconsin.

*199 severe weather reports across the Chanhassen, MN NWS County warning area from June 17th thru the 26th, prior to this period there were only 23 severe weather reports.

Here are the preliminary tornado numbers from the past few severe weather events that have struck Minnesota…

6/17/10: 20
6/21/10: 5
6/25/10: 7
6/26/10: 7

*The EF-2 tornado in Pine County MN on June 17th, 2010 was the first strong tornado (EF-2/F2) since the Siren, Wisconsin F3 tornado that hit on June 18th, 2001.

*June 17th, 2010 was the first time since June 11th, 2005 with at least 3 tornadoes across the Duluth, MN NWS County warning area.

*Prior to June 17th, 2010, it had been over 5 years since Pine County MN had it’s last tornado, dating back to June 11th, 2005.

*The 4 violent tornadoes (EF-4) on June 17th, 2010…3 in Minnesota and 1 in North Dakota was the greatest number of violent tornadoes in any one event since the Super Tuesday Outbreak of February 5th-6th, 2008.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Cooler air was spilling south out of Central Canada and into the Upper Midwest Today as a secondary cold front which moved through last night and early Today settles south into Northern Iowa This Afternoon. Partly-mostly cloudy skies covered our local area Today with high temperatures mainly in the 60s to around 70 degrees while dewpoints have fallen into the 40s with PWS generally around 0.60″. Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

The flow aloft was beginning to amplify Today as a potent upper level low (546 meters) begins it’s journey to the south out of the Hudson Bay/Northern Ontario Province area in Canada. Note: Surface temperatures are holding in the 38-40 degree range This Afternoon in Southern Hudson Bay Canada while a rather large area of zero/-2 degree C 850 mb temperatures were pushing south from Ontario Province Canada late Today near this upper low. The airmass coming into Minnesota won’t be nearly as cold as what was occurring to our north/northeast Today, but it will still be rather crisp, especially during the Overnight hours.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Upper level low will be centered to our north/northeast during this period with a northerly flow aloft continuing to advect cooler air south from Ontario Province and into our local area. 850 mb temperatures which ranged from +6/+8 degrees C in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon will fall to between zero/+6 degrees C by late Tonight and most of Tuesday. Low temperatures Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees, but 30s are likely in the typical cold spots…There might even be some patchy frost late Tonight and again late Tomorrow Night in low lying areas, well away from Lake Superior. Partly-mostly cloudy skies This Evening will become clear-partly cloudy later in the night. Mostly sunny skies are expected Tomorrow with mostly clear skies Tomorrow Night. Winds during this period will be out of the north or northwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Upper level low will pull farther east and away from our area by mid-week while high pressure initially over the Northern Plains Today heads through the Upper Midwest for Tuesday and Wednesday before exiting to our east by Thursday. Dry weather will continue across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with highs in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southerly winds will commence later this week which will begin to transport deeper moisture north into the Upper Midwest while a spike in temperatures also occurs. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s. An area of low pressure and cold front will track east out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday, this system could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to our area at that time.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 43 to 48, a little warmer closer to Lake Superior. Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70. Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday… Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 57 to 62.

.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 81 to 86.

Normal High Temperature Today 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim

6/26/10: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 7:39 PM CDT, Saturday, June 26th, 2010

Note: Preliminary tornado count from Southern Minnesota on Friday, June 25th, 2010: 7, per SPC storm report page.

Note: Updated tornado count from Thursday, June 17th, 2010 per NWS Chanhassen, MN: 20 tornadoes have now been confirmed from June 17th’s severe weather outbreak that struck portions of Minnesota. This number could rise a little more in coming days.

Here are some rainfall totals from Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Friday, June 25th, 2010. Source NWS Duluth, MN:

Duluth MN: 0.18″

International Falls MN: 0.16″

Brainerd MN: 1.11″

Grand Marais MN: 0.38″

Hibbing MN: 0.21″

Ashland WI: 0.22″

Northome MN: 0.22″

2 miles South of Tower MN: 0.20″

Embarrass MN: 0.27″

Bruno MN: 0.31″

Floodwood MN: 0.31″

Solon Springs WI: 0.19″

Butternut WI: 0.30″

Upson WI: 0.23″

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies prevailed across our area Today with areas of haze and fog…The fog was most common near Lake Superior. Highs Today ranged from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior with 70s to around 80 degrees elsewhere. Dewpoints Today ranged from the 40s in Northeast Minnesota to the muggier 60s in Western-Southern areas. PWS early This Evening ranged from 0.70″-0.90″ in Northeast Minnesota to 1.00″-1.40″ elsewhere. Winds Today were out of the south or east generally under 15 mph. Surface map early This Evening featured a stationary front over Northern Iowa with another stationary front across Central Minnesota to Central Wisconsin. A cold front was located over the Eastern Dakotas. Low pressure of 1004 mb was centered in Southern Manitoba Province with a 1002 mb low centered in extreme Southeast South Dakota. High pressure of 1010 mb was centered over Central Lake Superior.

Today’s 500 mb analysis:

Southwest flow aloft was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. Upper level low (564 meters) was tracking east-southeast through Southwest Saskatchewan Province early This Evening with an upper level trough shifting out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

The low in Southeast South Dakota late Today will head E/NE Tonight while the low over Southern Manitoba Province remains off to our northwest. A warm front with the South Dakota low will shift east-northeast Tonight, but will remain south of our local area. A cold front associated with the Manitoba low will push east during the night and will reach Northcentral Minnesota Overnight. Scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible throughout Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, although the greatest risk for heavy rain and severe weather should remain to our south near the deeper instability and moisture. There’s still a threat for some locally heavy downpours, however, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin Tonight and possibly into Eastcentral Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies with areas of haze and fog will be common across our area Tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south or east under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will be centered to our north and east during this period. A cold front is expected to move through Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday which will then be followed by an upper level trough which will approach from the northwest. Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast on Sunday with a few showers or thunderstorms possible, although severe weather is not expected. Clear-partly cloudy skies will occur Sunday Night with any showers confined to the early Evening hours. Highs Tomorrow will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s. Winds will shift to the west and northwest at 10-25 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A quiet weather pattern will develop from Monday through Wednesday as an upper level low sets up shop to our northeast while strong high pressure builds south out of Western Hudson Bay Canada. An amplified northerly flow will become estabilished across the Upper Midwest for the early to mid part of next week which will result in cool temperatures, but dry conditions. Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s, it’s not even out of the question that some of the typical cold spots drop into the 30s early next week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Areas of haze and fog. Scattered showers developing, mainly late. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers early along with areas of haze and fog. Some partial Afternoon clearing with showers or thunderstorms possible. Warmer. High 73 to 78. Wind becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Showers possible early. Low 50 to 55. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday… Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70.

.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday… Mostly sunny. High 63 to 68.

.Tuesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday… Mostly sunny. High 68 to 73.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 74 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 51 degrees

Tim

June 24th, 2010 Storm Chase Trip

This was our shortest storm chase trip of 2010 (thus far) for Shawn and I as we only had to go northwest out of Duluth by 15 miles or so. A very intense supercell thunderstorm blew up between 2-3 PM CDT Thursday, June 24th, 2010 about 10-15 miles north-northeast of Grand Rapids, Minnesota…Eastcentral Itasca County. This storm tracked southeast and became tornado warned with reports of funnel clouds and wall clouds as it reached Southwest Saint Louis County MN. The severe storm continued on it’s southeast track, passing through Saginaw, Adolph, Hermantown, Proctor, Duluth, and Superior between 5:40 PM-6:30 PM CDT Thursday. This storm had an amazing amount of cloud to ground lightning strikes (CG’S) one of the better lightning displays I’ve seen around Duluth in quite some-time. This storm produced scattered amounts of wind damage in and near the Twin Ports, it also produced quite a bit of hail, generally up to 1.00″ in diameter. Rainfall was also extremely heavy with amounts ranging from 0.75″-1.50″ in under a half hour’s time, which led to some street flooding around the city.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the pictures.
Total mileage on this storm chase: 34.04 miles
Counties covered: Saint Louis
Tim