8/31/10: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A cold front which brought the showers and embedded thunderstorms to the area last night and early Today was now centered over Eastern Minnesota as of 3 PM. A muggy and warm airmass continued along and ahead of this boundary Today with drier and cooler conditions behind this front. High temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s Today with dewpoints ranging from the 50s in Western-Northwest areas (behind the cold front) to the 60s/70s elsewhere. Winds Today were out of the south or west at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Broad upper level trough continued to cover the Western U.S. Today with an 80 knot mid level jet streak and a 110 knot upper level jet streak in place over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Today out ahead of this 500 mb trough.

Tonight:

Look for the cold front to pass through Eastern Minnesota-Northwest Wisconsin This Evening. There is still a risk for some showers or thunderstorms before Midnight, mainly along and south-east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland Wisconsin. CAPES will generally be less than 1000 j/kg This Evening ahead of the cold front with Lifted Indices around -3 degrees C. The better shear is found along and west of the cold front, so the prospects for severe weather are relatively low across Northwest Wisconsin early Tonight. Heavy downpours, wind gusts up to 40 mph and occasional lightning strikes will be the main risks if any thunderstorms do develop. Otherwise look for partly-mostly cloudy skies across our area Tonight with lowering humidity and cooler temperatures compared to the past few nights. Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with westerly winds at 10-20 mph ushering in 40-50 degree dewpoints along with cold advection with 850 mb temps falling from +12/+16 degrees C to around +7/+10 degrees C during the night.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will move across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday with partly cloudy-mostly sunny skies. High temps will mainly be in the 70s with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, winds will be out of the west, north or east under 20 mph. By Wednesday Night, high pressure moves off to our east while a new area of low pressure takes aim at the Upper Midwest. Tonight’s cold front will stall out and turn into a warm front by Wednesday Night, but this boundary will remain well to our south. Look for some rain and isolated thunderstorms to spread north/east into our local area by Wednesday Night along with mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s with south or east winds under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will deepen as it lifts N/NE into Lake Superior from Thursday into Friday while an upper level trough digs south/east into the Upper Midwest. Much cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees are forecast on Thursday with 50s and 60s expected on Friday. Low temps will be in the 40s and 50s both nights, but some 30s can’t be ruled out in the typical cold spots for Friday Night. Areas of rain will likely occur around Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday with the possibility for a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Turning cooler and less humid. Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday… Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 73 to 78. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming southeast late.

.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers developing. Low 53 to 58. Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. High 60 to 65. Chance of rain 60%.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 58 to 63. Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night… Becoming partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 65 to 70.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

8/30/10: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:32 PM CDT, Monday, August 30th, 2010

Weather Tibits:

*Today marks the 4th day in a row with a maximum temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Today’s high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota marks the 14th day this month with a high temperature at or above 80 degrees.

*Since June 1st, 2010 there’s been measurable rain (trace or greater) on 52 of those days in Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date in 2009… A record low temperature of 38 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A very humid and warm day with dewpoints in the middle 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.40-1.70″! High temperatures Today were in the middle 80s to lower 90s which is way above average for late August by some 10-20 degrees! There were some showers over portions of Northeast/Eastcentral Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin earlier Today, but that activity diminished by the Afternoon leaving behind a partly-mostly cloudy sky across our area along with gusty south winds of 10-25 mph. Surface map late This Afternoon has a stationary front extending from Westcentral Ontario Province Canada through Northwest Minnesota to Eastern North Dakota to Central South Dakota with low pressure averaging 1002 mb centered over Northern South Dakota.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A very active weather pattern has evolved as we begin to close out the month of August. A strong upper level trough covered the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with late Afternoon RUC model analysis showing an 80-90 knot upper level jet on the south/east side of this 500 mb trough. A vigorous disturbance was heading N-NE out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains late Today and it’s this disturbance combined with the front along with ample instability, shear and moisture in place that will lead to a severe weather outbreak Tonight across portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A southwest flow aloft continued Today across our area out ahead of this trough with a plume of deep tropical moisture lifting north from Texas through the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery. A large upper level ridge continued to dominate areas to our south/east, while Hurricane Earl a category 4 storm with 135 mph winds heads away from the Virgin Islands This Afternoon with movement toward the west-northwest.

Tonight:

Low pressure will deepen to around 998 mb as it lifts N/NE out of Northern South Dakota. A stationary front near the Red River Valley (NW MN) will turn into a cold front during the night, but this boundary will remain to our west the entire night. Our immediate area will remain in the warm sector of this storm Tonight with a strong 850 mb jet out of the S-SW at 30-55 knots which will continue to pump warm and muggy air north into our area. Lows Tonight will only drop into the 60s and 70s once again with dewpoints in the 65-72 degree range while those south winds vary in speeds between 10-25 mph. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover our area Tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, first in far Northern-Western parts our area, then spreading into Eastern-Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin Overnight.

CAPES should remain around 1000-1500 j/kg Tonight across portions of our area with Lifted Indices of -2/-5 degrees C. SHEAR of around 30 knots combined with mid level winds increasing to 30-40 knots could lead to a few severe thunderstorms before 2 AM CDT, mainly west of a line from Ely to McGrath Minnesota, including the Counties of Northern-Western St. Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing and Aitkin. Damaging wind and possibly some large hail will be the main threats in our area with a risk for a couple tornadoes This Evening in Western Minnesota and the Eastern Dakotas. Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will also occur with any thunderstorm Tonight.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Strong low pressure will deepen to around 990 mb as it heads N/NE through Eastern Manitoba Province/Western Hudson Bay Canada during this period while a cold front trailing southwest of the surface low moves through our local area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening before it exits to our south/east later Tomorrow Night.

At this time it appears that the greater threat for a few severe thunderstorms for Tuesday Afternoon/Evening would be over Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser risk in Northeastern-Eastern Minnesota. CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices from -2/-6 degrees C are forecast to cover those above mentioned areas Tuesday Afternoon with dewpoints along and ahead of the front ranging from 68-75 degrees with PWS around 1.30-1.75″. The low level jet on Tuesday looks much weaker compared to Tonight, however, thanks in part to the main surface low lifting into Central Canada and away from our area, but SHEAR of 30-40 knots will be in place along with 35-45 knot mid level winds and these factors could help to trigger a few severe storms with damaging wind and large hail being the main threats along with heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.

Partly-mostly cloudy skies will cover Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Southwest winds will turn westerly at 10-20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

A temporary area of high pressure will move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday before the next low pressure system and it’s upper level trough and cold front dig into the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes region from Wednesday Night into early Friday. Instability and moisture with this next event looks skimpy, but the dynamics of this system combined with the colder temperatures moving in aloft Thursday Afternoon will lead to areas of rain and embedded thunderstorm activity across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Wednesday Night into Thursday Night. All in all it looks like a much cooler and less humid weather pattern from Wednesday into this Labor Day holiday weekend as a northwest flow develops by the end of the week. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Wednesday Night mainly in the 50s. Highs for Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Unseasonably warm. Humid. Variable cloudiness. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight. Low 68 to 73. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday… Muggy. Scattered showers or thunderstorms. Variable cloudiness. High 78 to 83. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night… Turning cooler and less humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Becoming partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday… Cooler and less humid. Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night… Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers possible late. Low 50 to 55. Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 50%.

.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Low 47 to 52. Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday… Partly sunny. High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 50 degrees

Tim

8/29/10: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:47 PM CDT, Sunday, August 29th, 2010

Weather Tidbits:

*4 consecutive days (8/25-8/28) and counting with no rain at Duluth, Minnesota. The last time we put together 4 days in a row without any rain was back on July 6th-9th!

*693 severe weather reports in Minnesota so far this year with 123 tornado reports! Source: Paul Douglas, St. Cloud times.

Weather History:

On this date last year the high temperature was just 56 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Warm weather continued Today with high temperatures mainly in the 80s which is 10-20 degrees above normal for late August, however, an onshore wind developed This Afternoon around the head of Lake Superior which caused temperatures to fall back into the 60s and 70s This Afternoon. Dewpoints were still rather low Today with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s, but a muggier airmass consisting of dewpoints in the 65-68 degree range were beginning to advect north/west from Southern-Central Wisconsin late Today. Late Afternoon PWS ranged from 0.80-1.10″ in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed This Afternoon in extreme Northern Minnesota, generally affecting the cities of Big Falls, Manitou, Littlefork and International Falls in Koochiching County, some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes have been occurring with this activity as it heads northeast into Southern Ontario Province. These showers have been forming in a slightly unstable environment with CAPES around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies around zero degrees C. Surface map early This Afternoon featured a stationary front extending from Central South Dakota to Eastcentral North Dakota to Southcentral Ontario Province with low pressure averaging 1000 mb centered in Central South Dakota.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A broad upper level trough covered the Western U.S. Today per RUC model analysis with a 100 knot upper level jet in place on the east side of this trough from Central Montana to Southern Saskatchewan Province. A southwest 500 mb flow covered the Upper Midwest Today while a large upper level ridge (5940 meters) was in place from the Central-Southern Great Lakes, through the Central/Southern Plains, Ohio Valley and Eastern U.S.

Tonight:

Another strong southwesterly low level jet of 30-55 knots will be in place across Minnesota Today out ahead of a stationary front which will remain well to our west/north Tonight. Deeper moisture will advect north into our area during the night with dewpoints climbing into the 60s while PWS rise to between 1.00-1.50″ Overnight. The combination of the strong LLJ and moisture transport combined with a weak upper level disturbance lifting into the Upper Midwest could be enough to trigger isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms Tonight across Northern/Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. No severe weather is expected though due to marginal instability, but some brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning strikes may accompany some of this activity during the night. Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 60s and lower 70s which is 10-20 degrees above average for the end of August. Winds Tonight will be out of the south at 10-20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Monday and Monday Night:

A very warm and muggy airmass will be found in our local area during this period with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.50-2.00″! High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 80s to around 90 degrees with lows Monday Night in the 60s and 70s! A stationary front will be centered to our west/north on Monday, this boundary will then begin to shift east as a cold front Monday Night, but will likely remain west of our immediate area. Low pressure will also begin to deepen from 1000 mb late Today to around 995 mb by late Monday Night as it lifts northeast from Central South Dakota. The atmosphere will become more unstable along and ahead of this boundary Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with CAPES from 1000-1500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero/-4 degrees C. A southwest low level jet of 30-55 knots will persist across our area during this period along with around 30-35 knots of SHEAR while mid level winds increase to 30-40 knots in Northcentral Minnesota with a 90 knot upper level jet moving into the Northern Plains.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop Monday Evening and continue through the Overnight hours along and west of a line from Grand Marais Minnesota to Shell Lake Wisconsin. A few of the thunderstorms could become severe Monday Evening, mainly in Western parts of our area…including the Counties of Crow Wing, Cass, Itasca and Koochiching. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats from severe storms, along with heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning in any non-severe thunderstorm.

A few showers or thunderstorms could also occur on Monday, mainly in Northern-Northeastern Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure deepens to between 987-993 mb during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame as it lifts northeast into Western Hudson Bay Canada. A cold front attached to that low will continue to move east and will pass through Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday Evening. A very muggy and unstable airmass will continue on Tuesday along and ahead of this front with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s along with PWS from 1.50-2.00″ while CAPES range from 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2/-5 degrees C. The greatest instability is forecast to set-up across Northwestern Wisconsin the way it looks now, and this area will have the best chance at seeing a few severe thunderstorms Tuesday Afternoon and Evening with a lesser threat across Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota the way it looks now due to an earlier frontal passage. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main severe threats once again on Tuesday. The threat for precipitation will end Tuesday Night with mainly dry conditions expected for Wednesday as high pressure passes through the Upper Midwest in wake of Tuesday’s cold front. High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s on Tuesday with mainly 70s expected for Wednesday along with much lower humidity. Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with mainly 50s for Wednesday Night.

The forecast models continue to be at odds as to what will happen around the Upper Midwest from mid to late week and perhaps through next weekend. Models have been exhibiting little consistency for this time period with rather large swings noted from one model run to the next.

One potential outcome will be for a complex low pressure system with one center to our south and another to our northwest phasing together as they reach the Great Lakes later this week while an upper level low/upper trough intensifies over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes which would result in a cool and rather wet period from Wednesday Night through at least Friday.

Another possible outcome would be for a cold front to pass through the Upper Midwest with possible rain mainly Wednesday Night through about midday Thursday before things dry out.

One thing that may be giving the long range models problems is Hurricane Earl and it’s forecasted track toward the far Western Atlantic, possibly even affecting portions of the far Eastern U.S. late this week, the farther west this hurricane tracks would likely cause weather systems to slow down across the Plains and Upper Midwest from mid to late week.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Mild. Scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly late. Low 62 to 67. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday… Humid. Partly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Warm and breezy. High 82 to 87. Wind south at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night… Humid and warm. Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight. Low 65 to 70. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday… Humid. Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.

.Wednesday… Less humid. Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.

.Wednesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. High 65 to 70. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Tomorrow 70 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Tomorrow 50 degrees

Tim

8/27/10: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:37 PM CDT, Friday, August 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1984… A record high temperature of 92 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

On this date in 1986… A record low temperature of 32 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Mainly sunny skies with mild temperatures and comfortable humidity continued across the area Today with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s, but cooler 60s and 70s did prevail from Superior and Downtown Duluth up along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Dewpoints This Afternoon were in the upper 50s to lower 60s with PWS around 0.80″. Winds Today were out of the south at 10-20 mph with higher gusts away from Lake Superior. Surface map late Today featured an area of high pressure of 1020 mb over Eastern Illinois with low pressure of 998 mb covering the Central Dakotas. A weak surface trough extended from Northwest Wisconsin toward the Western Shores of Lake Michigan.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

The 500 mb flow has shifted to the west Today per water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level trough covered the Pacific Northwest-Northern Rockies with a southwest flow aloft developing across the Northern Plains and Rockies out ahead of this H5 trough. A core of very hot temperatures was found across portions of the Western-Central Dakotas through the Western High Plains Today with temperatures of 90-105 degrees with 850 mb temperatures of +26/+34 degrees C!

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure to our southeast and low pressure well to our west will keep a southerly flow going over the Upper Midwest with more mild temperatures expected during this period. Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and lower 60s with highs Tomorrow generally in the 80s. Dewpoints during this period should remain in the 50s to lower 60s. Mostly clear skies are forecast through Tomorrow Night with southerly winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts thanks to a persistent SW 850 mb jet which will vary in speeds from 35-55 knots from Tonight through Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A stationary front will be centered well to our west-north for Sunday and Sunday Night while an upper level disturbance lifts N/NE out of Illinois. Looks mainly dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with highs generally in the 80s with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. A muggier airmass will creep north into our area from Sunday Night through early next week as dewpoints climb into the 60s to lower 70s while PWS increase to between 1.50-2.00″! A few showers or thunderstorms could develop Sunday Night, mainly in far Northern Minnesota, otherwise it should remain dry with lows mainly in the 60s. A cold front will start to shift south-east into Minnesota Monday and will move through the state on Tuesday the way it looks now. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible near this boundary early next week with at least an isolated severe weather and or heavy rainfall risk developing for portions of our local area. High temps on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 60s.

The forecast models continue to be at odds for the middle of next week with the latest GFS, NAVY and EUROPEAN models hinting at a dry Wednesday-Thursday around here, while the GEM-GLOBAL model brings a low pressure system toward the Great Lakes with a swath of rain spreading north into parts of our area sometime late Wednesday or on Thursday. Note: The GFS and EUROPEAN models have both trended drier per last few model runs which is a change from prior runs that showed some rain reaching parts of our area Wednesday Evening, then ending during the day Thursday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday… Sunny and breezy. High 80 to 85. Wind southwest to south at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night… Clear. Low 58 to 63. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Monday… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 63 to 68. Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.

Normal High Temperature Today 71 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 51 degrees

Tim

8/26/10: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:39 PM CDT, Thursday, August 26th, 2010

A hint of Autumn in the air earlier Today in parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Here are some low temperatures from Today. Source: NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hibbing MN: 39 degrees

International Falls MN: 40 degrees

Silver Bay MN: 37 degrees

Grand Marais MN: 36 degrees

Cook MN: 39 degrees

Hayward WI: 40 degrees

2 miles South of Tower MN: 38 degrees

Embarrass MN: 36 degrees

3 miles East of Orr MN: 39 degrees

Weather Headlines:

*Tranquil weather to hold through the weekend

*Changes ahead for next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A great late Summer day (very typical for late August) across our area with plenty of sunshine, comfortable humidity with Afternoon dewpoints generally in the 50s along with southerly winds around 20 mph or less, although a light east wind has developed This Afternoon at the Duluth Harbor. Highs Today were generally in the 70s, except upper 60s at the Duluth Harbor.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500 mb flow continued across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery. An upper level ridge (5940 meters) covered the Southwest half of the U.S. with lots of very warm temperatures with 90s and even some low 100s Today from Montana through parts of the Dakotas, down through the Western High Plains and Rockies while 850 mb temperatures ranged from +20/+32 degrees C across those areas. The Northern Rockies will see a huge drop in temperatures by this weekend as a baroclinic zone starts to tighthen up (a sure sign of fall).

Tonight through Friday Night:

An area of high pressure will remain centered to our southeast during this period while a weak warm front lifts N-NE through Minnesota into Friday, then a frontal boundary will stall out well to our west-north by Tomorrow Night. Mostly clear skies are forecast from Tonight through Friday Night with lows in the 40s and 50s Tonight and the 50s to near 60 degrees Friday Night. Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s. Patchy fog could develop late Tonight and early Tomorrow Morning, mainly in low lying areas and near rivers. Humidity levels will remain comfortable through Tomorrow Night with dewpoints generally in the 50s across our area. Winds will be out of the south at 5-15 mph Tonight, increasing to 10-20 mph Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with gusts to 30 mph during the day Friday thanks to a southwest low level jet which will increase to between 30-55 knots Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night per latest model guidance.

Note: Winds Tomorrow may have an easterly component to them around the head of Lake Superior, if this happens then high temps would likely hold in the 60s in Superior and Downtown Duluth.

Extended Forecast:

An upper level trough currently over British Columbia and the Northeast Pacific will move into the Western U.S. through the weekend before heading into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this weekend and early next week. A tight temperature gradient will develop from Saturday through Monday with some places in Montana holding in the 40s with even some possible snow at times in the Mountains while widespread 80+ degree high temperatures occur in the warm sector across the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. A stationary front representing this temperature contrast will remain to our west-north through Sunday before it shifts south/east during the early to middle portion of next week the way it looks now.

Strong southerly winds will continue across the Upper Midwest this weekend with a gradual increase in moisture with 60+ degree dewpoints expected by Sunday and early next week. Instability will also begin to come up by early next week, and this combined with the approaching front should result in scattered showers/thunderstorms around our area from Monday into Tuesday, but far Northern-Northwest parts of our area could see some activity as soon as Sunday or Sunday Night.

High temperatures in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be in the 70s and 80s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 50s and 60s both nights.

By the middle of next week the forecast models are at odds as to whether or not an upper level low/trough develops around the Upper Midwest and tracks toward the Great Lakes with a threat of rain/possible thunder, or if dry weather will occur for next Wednesday/Thursday. The models should start to converge on a solution in coming days.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight… Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday… Patchy fog possible early. Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night… Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 80 to 85.

.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 58 to 63.

.Sunday… Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85.

.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.

.Monday… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 20%.

Normal High Temperature Today 72 degrees

Normal Low Temperature Today 52 degrees

Tim