9/29/10: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:26 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 29th, 2010

Note:  Arctic air is building over portions of Alaska…Here are some low temperatures from Monday Night/Tuesday Morning in Northern Alaska.  A brief cool snap is forecasted to move into the Upper Midwest this weekend, with perhaps a stronger cold air surge sometime around the middle part of October, although without any snow cover just yet, we won’t be dealing with any subzero cold just yet.

Eielson AFB:  3 degrees
Fort Yukon:  0 degrees
Bettles:  0 degrees
Circle Hot Springs:  -5 degrees
Near Delta:  -3 degrees
Chicken:  -5 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1984…  A record low temperature of 25 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 996 mb was centered in Northern Ontario Province as of 4 PM with a cold front attached to this low continuing on it’s eastward track through Central Wisconsin late Today.  This system brought a period of clouds and showers along with an a spotty thunderstorm or two across our area This Morning into early This Afternoon…Then skies cleared out briefly, before the upper level trough with it’s cold air aloft approached the Upper Midwest This Afternoon.  500 mb temperatures around -17 degrees C combined with LAPSE RATES of 6.0-8.0 c/km with CAPES <500 j/kg and Lifted Indicies from +1/-2 degrees C caused isolated showers and thunderstorms This Afternoon over Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today warmed nicely for late September with 60s and lower 70s common Today while winds were out of the west or northwest at 10-20 mph with some higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft prevailed across the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with an upper level trough pushing south/east through Central Canada/Minnesota/and the Northern Great Lakes.

Tonight:

Isolated showers or thunderstorms will end before 9 PM with partly to mostly cloudy skies continuing thereafter.  Brief heavy downpours, small hail up to 0.25″ in diameter, occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts to 35 mph are possible in the strongest storms before 7 PM.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 40s, but a few 30s are possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds Tonight will be out of the west or north at 10-20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

High pressure will be centered across the Northern Plains through this period which will result in dry conditions for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Thursday will become partly cloudy Thursday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  North or west winds under 20 mph are forecast during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Northerly flow aloft will develop on Friday and will continue most of the weekend with strong high pressure >1032 mb building south/southeast from Central Manitoba Province.  An upper level disturbance moving southeast through our area could trigger a few showers on Friday in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with mainly dry conditions then expected from Friday Night into early next week, although with the colder airmass coming into the area and moving over the warmer waters of Lake Superior, some lake effect rain showers could develop during the Friday Night-Saturday time period for areas along the South Shore of Lake Superior, including Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.  High temperatures will be in the 40s to near 50 degrees in Northern Minnesota with 50s for the rest of our area on Friday with highs Saturday in the 40s and 50s.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s both nights.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Isolated showers before 8 PM.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 60 to 65.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday…  Variable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.

.Sunday…  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 60 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 40 degrees

Tim

9/28/10: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 28th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*65 degree high temperature on Monday, September 27th, 2010 at Duluth, Minnesota was the warmest high temperature since September 12th when the high temperature was 68 degrees.

*9/27/10 marked only the 6th time this month with an above normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Plenty of clouds persisted throughout the day in Northwest Wisconsin back through Eastern and Northeastern Minnesota while skies started to clear out This Afternoon over Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures Today ranged from the upper 40s to middle 50s near Lake Superior with mid 50s to lower 60s for the rest of our area.  Winds Today were out of the east, south or north under 20 mph.  Surface map as of 2 PM featured high pressure of 1014 mb centered over Central Ontario Province with low pressure of 998 mb centered in Southeast Ontario Province with low pressure of 1000 mb centered along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba Province line.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery reveals a rather amplified weather pattern in place across the U.S.  A strong jet stream >110 knots was in place from the Central Pacific through Central Canada with a N/NW 500 mb flow covering the Upper Midwest while a large upper level ridge of high pressure covered the Western U.S. while an upper level low was in place over the Eastern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our north/east while low pressure stays off to our northwest.  A cold front attached to this low should be entering western parts of our area toward dawn.  Warm advection will be in full swing Overnight with 850 mb temperatures of around +6 degrees C This Afternoon increasing to +8/+14 degrees C later Tonight as southerly winds develop out ahead of this low pressure system.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows generally in the 40s, but a few locales could slip into the 30s depending on sky conditions.  Winds Tonight will be out of the east or south under 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move into Central Ontario Province during this period with a cold front attached to this low pushing southeast through our area on Wednesday which will also be accompanied by a rather potent disturbance and cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temps around -15 degrees C) Partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies are forecast for Tomorrow with scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms with dry conditions returning Wednesday Night under partly-mostly cloudy skies.  No severe weather is expected on Wednesday due to a limited amount of moisture and instability, but some brief heavy downpours, occasional lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible in the strongest activity.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few southern locales could reach 70 degrees.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 40s.  Westerly winds from 10-25 mph are expected during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is forecast in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Thursday and Thursday Night
with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.  The 500 mb flow will amplify beginning on Friday and continuing through the weekend with a sharp northerly flow developing over the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest with strong high pressure around 1035 mb building east from the Northern Plains.  A few showers are possible on Friday throughout our area with mainly dry conditions then expected for Saturday, although a few lake effect rain showers could develop along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly affecting the counties of Bayfield, Ashland and Iron in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Friday will be in the 50s with some northern areas possibly holding in the 40s.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy with some clearing developing.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms developing.  High 62 to 67.  Wind west at 15 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Saturday…  Variable cloudiness.  High 48 to 53.

Normal High Temperature Today 60 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

9/27/10: Thunderstorm in Duluth, Minnesota

Here’s a few photos from Today’s surprise thunderstorms that hit Duluth, Minnesota around 2 PM CDT.  Enjoy the pics.  I also shot some video which includes quite a bit of loud thunder, but I used common sense and didn’t venture too far outside since the lightning Today was the dangerous Cloud to Ground stuff.  The videos can be found on my youtube page…http://www.youtube.com/burr30 or my facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/timothy.burr1

9/27/10: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:14 PM CDT, Monday, September 27th, 2010

Weather tidbits:

*Low temperature of 31 degrees at the Duluth Airport on Sunday, September 26th, 2010 was the first time since May 10th, 2010 with a minimum temperature of 32 degrees or lower.

*Last year’s first freezing (32 degrees) low temperature occurred on October 8th at Duluth, Minnesota compared to September 26th this year.

Low temperature report for Monday, September 27th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Hayward WI:  33 degrees
Sky Harbor MN:  32 degrees
Two Harbors MN:  34 degrees
Silver Bay MN:  28 degrees
Superior WI:  34 degrees
Embarrass MN:  22 degrees
Floodwood MN:  28 degrees
Butternut WI:  30 degrees
Upson WI:  30 degrees
Gordon WI:  30 degrees
Spooner WI:  31 degrees
Solon Springs WI:  33 degrees

Low temperature report for Sunday, September 26th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  31 degrees
International Falls MN:  34 degrees
Hibbing MN:  27 degrees
Ashland WI:  28 degrees
Hayward WI:  27 degrees
Two Harbors MN:  28 degrees
Silver Bay MN:  25 degrees
Grand Marais MN:  25 degrees
Ely MN:  25 degrees
Crane Lake MN:  28 degrees
Eveleth MN:  28 degrees
Aitkin MN:  32 degrees
Cloquet MN:  30 degrees
Superior WI:  28 degrees
Siren WI:  29 degrees
Bruno MN:  29 degrees
Embarrass MN:  22 degrees
Floodwood MN:  28 degrees
2 miles south of Tower MN:  28 degrees
7 miles northwest of Two Harbors MN:  26 degrees
Butternut WI:  31 degrees
Danbury WI:  32 degrees
Solon Springs WI:  29 degrees

Weather History:

*On this date in 1987…  A record high temperature of 83 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*On this date in 1991 and previous years…  A record low temperature of 27 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A not so dry front after all.  A cold front has moved into Eastern Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Enough moisture with dewpoints in the 40s to around 50 degrees combined with PWS around 0.80″ in combination with some lift provided by a 110 knot jet streak over the Red River Valley of Minnesota caused some showers and thunderstorms over the North half of Minnesota This Morning which moved into Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  Dangerous lightning strikes and brief heavy downpours have been the main risks from these storms Today.  Favorable LAPSE RATES >6.5 c/km and cold temperatures aloft -14 degrees C also contributed to these surprise storms Today.  High temperatures Today ranged from the lower to middle 50s in far Northeast Minnesota with 60s to lower 70s for the rest of our area.  Winds Today were out of the south, west or north under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  A large upper level low was in place from the Ohio Valley through the Southeast U.S. while a massive upper level ridge of high pressure prevailed over the Western U.S.

Tonight:

A fairly strong disturbance and cold front will exit Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  A few showers in eastern parts of Northwest Wisconsin and also in the Arrowhead of Minnesota will come to an end This Evening, otherwise for Tonight expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with the potential for a few lake effect rain showers Overnight, generally from Bayfield through Ashland and Iron counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s with some 30s in northern areas.  Winds will shift to the north in all locations at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

High pressure will stretch from Central Ontario Province south to the Upper Midwest on Tuesday before it shifts off to our south/east by Tuesday Night.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with the possibility for a few lake effect rain showers during the Morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior, possibly also affecting areas west toward the Twin Ports.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s with 60s from the Brainerd Lakes and areas west-northwest.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north/east under 20 mph.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast Tuesday Night with lows in the 30s and 40s with variable winds turning to the south.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure averaging 991 mb will move across Central Canada on Wednesday with a cold front and a potent upper level disturbance/upper trough pushing south/east through the Upper Midwest.  This appears to be a similar setup to what happened Today, so a few showers and perhaps even a late season thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few southern areas could approach 70.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with any showers ending early in the Evening.  Dry weather is on tap for Thursday and Thursday Night with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.  Looks like the pattern will amplify late this week or this weekend with a northerly flow aloft developing across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest.  A couple of chilly Autumn days are possible if this pattern develops, and there might even be a few lake effect rain showers from Friday Night into Saturday Night along the South Shore of Lake Superior, some of these rain showers could mix with ice pellets or snow flakes at night or during the early Morning hours especially if the long range models are correct by showing 850 mb temperatures lowering to -4/-7 degrees C by Saturday.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph, becoming north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  Showers possible early.  High 53 to 58.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind variable at 5 to 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Variable cloudiness.  Afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal High Temperature Today 61 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 41 degrees

Tim

9/25/10: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:29 PM CDT, Saturday, September 25th, 2010

All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*FREEZE WARNING*

Timing:

1 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Sunday

Counties included in the warning:

Northern Cook MN…Northern Lake MN…Central and Northern St. Louis MN…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Iron WI…Washburn WI…Sawyer WI…and Price WI…

Some cities included in the warning:

Forest Center MN…Ely MN…Crane Lake MN…Orr MN…Hibbing MN…Melrude MN…Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Cable WI…Ashland WI…Butternut WI…Hurley WI…Mercer WI…Minong WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…Exeland WI…Park Falls WI…Phillips WI…and Ogema WI…

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s in the warning area Tonight and early Sunday which will result in a widespread frost and killing freeze.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.

*FROST ADVISORY*

Timing:

1 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Sunday

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Cook MN…Southern Lake MN…Southern St. Louis MN…Carlton MN…Pine MN…Douglas WI…and Burnett WI…

Some cities included in the advisory:

Hovland MN…Grand Portage MN…Grand Marais MN…Silver Bay MN…Finland MN…Two Harbors MN…Duluth MN…Floodwood MN…Cromwell MN…Moose Lake MN…Hinckley MN…Pine City MN…Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Danbury WI…Grantsburg WI…and Siren WI…

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the lower to middle 30s in the advisory area Tonight which will result in areas of frost.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Rainfall report for Friday, September 24th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  0.17″
International Falls MN:  0.25″
Hibbing MN:  0.18″
4 miles south of Bruno MN:  0.23″
Embarrass MN:  0.48″
Floodwood MN:  0.21″
Kabetogama MN:  0.52″
3 miles east of Orr MN:  0.54″
Silver Bay MN:  0.23″
Finland MN:  0.25″
Gurney WI:  0.23″
9 miles north of Bayfield WI:  0.24″
Washburn WI:  0.21″

Low temperature report for Saturday, September 25th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth MN:  37 degrees
International Falls MN:  33 degrees
Hibbing MN:  32 degrees
Hayward WI:  33 degrees
Superior WI:  34 degrees
Eveleth MN:  36 degrees
Bruno MN:  35 degrees
Littlefork MN:  35 degrees
Embarrass MN:  33 degrees
Floodwood MN:  32 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A low pressure disturbance dropped south-southeast out of the Northern Plains earlier Today and passed well southwest of our local area This Afternoon.  A few light rain showers or sprinkles on the eastern side of this low did make it into the Brainerd Lakes/Aitkin area This Morning, otherwise partly-mostly cloudy skies This Morning turned sunnier during the Afternoon in most areas, but clouds were still a little more extensive especially in far western-southwest areas.  Winds Today were calm or light easterly in direction with high temperatures in the middle 50s to lower 60s which continues the trend of how September has been thus far (below normal) Note:  Today marks the 21st day this month with a below normal high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery as a pretty vigorous disturbance drops S-SE from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains.  Thursday-Friday’s storm which affected the Upper Midwest has moved into Eastern Canada Today while an upper level ridge which covered most of the Southern-Eastern U.S. last week retrogrades to it’s new position across the Southwest U.S./Rockies/and Western U.S. Today.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

An area of high pressure averaging 1025 mb will be over our local area Tonight before shifting off to our south/east for Sunday and Sunday Night.  Clear-partly cloudy skies will be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during this period with lows in the 20s and 30s Tonight along with areas of frost and patchy fog.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s and 40s.  Nearly calm wind Tonight will turn southerly under 20 mph Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A few cold fronts will pass through the Upper Midwest next week.  One sometime Monday or early Tuesday, the other around mid-week.  Minimal moisture associated with these fronts should lead to mainly dry conditions across our area from Monday through Friday of next week with high temps in the 50s and 60s Monday and Tuesday, but a few locales could push toward 70 degrees on Monday, mainly in southern areas.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s, maybe some 30s in the north.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

*FROST ADVISORY* in effect from 1 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Sunday

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Areas of frost developing.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east around 12 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly sunny.  High 58 to 63.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 38 to 43.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal High Temperature Today 61 degrees
Normal Low Temperature Today 42 degrees

Tim