11/30/10: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:57 PM CST, Tuesday, November 30th, 2010

…Another winter storm affects portions of the Northland, but snow amounts varied greatly…  In the end, snow totals ended up higher than forecasted from Duluth (away from Lake Superior) north through the Iron Range and south to parts of Carlton county.  Snow totals closer to Lake Superior were pretty much in line with what was forecasted…

Note:  Snow continues to come down late This Afternoon, thus the totals represented below may not reflect the final numbers.  Higher snow totals are in bold.

Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  3.0″
Saginaw, MN (St. Louis county)  9.0″
Cloquet, MN (Carlton county)  7.0″
Holyoke, MN (Carlton county)  7.6″
4 miles south of Bruno, MN (Pine county)  7.0″
5 miles north of Virginia, MN (St. Louis county)  7.0″
4 miles south of Sawyer, MN (Carlton county)  6.9″
Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing county)  5.5″
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  5.3″
Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)  5.0″
5 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  3.0″
Pine River, MN (Cass county)  3.0″
South Range, WI (Douglas county)  2.5″
3 miles north of Pine City, MN (Pine county)  2.5″
Littlefork, MN (Koochiching county)  2.4″
7 miles south of Bigfork, MN (Itasca county)  1.3″
Brule, WI (Douglas county)  1.0″
Sarona, WI (Washburn county)  0.5″

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  8.1″ thru 2:53 PM CST…NWS total.
Proctor, MN (St. Louis county)  9.5″
2 miles west of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  5.3″ measured in the Duluth Heights neighborhood
7 miles east-southeast of Superior, WI (Douglas county)  1.3″ thru 11:15 AM CST, measured near the mouth of the Amnicon River.
West Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  Around 2.0″

Peak wind gusts from Today…Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  49 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 12:40 PM CST.
*2 miles south of Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  48 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust measured on the Blatnik Bridge at 10:37 AM CST.
*3 miles north of French River, MN (St. Louis county)  40 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 10:52 AM CST.
*Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  46 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 10:54 AM CST.
*Knife River, MN (Lake county)  47 mph non-thunderstorm wind gust at 12:10 PM CST.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Strong low pressure of 994 mb was centered just northwest of Lake Superior as of 3 PM with cold air and gusty west/northwest winds of 15-30 mph occurring on the backside of this storm Today.  Temperatures which were in the 20s and 30s at Midnight last night have fallen into the teens and 20s Today with wind chills of 10 below to 10 above zero.  Some snow also fell Today with some bands of moderate to heavy snow affecting portions of Northeast/Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin due to some meso-scale processess in the form of gravity waves/standing waves near Lake Superior.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500 mb trough covered the Plains with an upper level low lifting slowly northeast through the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  110 knot mid level jet and a 140+ knot upper level jet were found ahead of this storm from Louisana to Michigan late This Afternoon per RUC model analysis.

…Winter Weather Headline information…Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*WINTER STORM WARNING* until 9 PM CST Tonight for Northern Cook…Northern Lake…St. Louis…Carlton…Koochiching…and Itasca counties Minnesota and for Douglas county Wisconsin.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 9 PM CST Tonight for Southern Cook and Southern Lake counties Minnesota.

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* until 6 PM CST Tonight for Cass…Crow Wing…Aitkin…and Pine counties Minnesota and for Bayfield…Burnett…Washburn…and Sawyer counties Wisconsin.

Note:  Snowfall storm totals will vary greatly and range from 1-3″ near Lake Superior in Northeast Minnesota with 4-10″ totals with isolated 10-12″ amounts for most other areas in Northern/Eastern Minnesota.  Snow totals in Northwest Wisconsin will range from 1-3″ with higher totals along the South Shore due to possible lake effect snow through Tomorrow Night.


Deep low pressure of around 990 mb will reach Northern Ontario Province by dawn.  Mostly cloudy skies will linger behind this low Tonight with areas of snow showers and flurries, additional snow accumulations should be an inch or less.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with northwest or west winds at 10-20 mph with higher gusts.  Wind chills will range from around 5 above to 15 below Tonight while the gusty winds lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.  Note:  Several of the HRRR model runs from Today have shown another localized moderate-heavy band of snow forming over Western Lake Superior Overnight while shifting southwest into Northwest Wisconsin after 1 AM.  Bayfield and Douglas counties Wisconsin as well as Northeast Pine/Eastern Carlton counties in Minnesota could be impacted by this band of heavier snow late Tonight…A quick 1-3″ of accumulation is possible if this band develops.  Based on model projections, it appears that this area of snow will remain south/east of Duluth/Superior, but it could be a close call.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure reaches Hudson Bay/Northeastern Canada during this period.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with some more snow showers and flurries are expected in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tomorrow with 1-3″ of accumulation possible, mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior.  Looks dry Tomorrow Night, but a few snow showers could continue in the snowbelts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and lower 20s with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10-25 mph on Wednesday and under 20 mph Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Thursday and Friday with high temperatures generally in the teens both days with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  The forecast for this weekend is up in the air at the moment…Low pressure is expected to pass west/south of our local area with some snow associated with this system possibly affecting portions of our local area depending on the track this low takes.  Also, there have been some indications for an inverted trough and a wind shift to the E/NE near Lake Superior this weekend and that combined with cold air in place may result in some lake effect snowfall for the North and South Shore.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

Timing:  Until 9 PM CST Tonight.

.Tonight…  Breezy with areas of blowing snow.  Occasional snow showers and flurries under mostly cloudy skies.  New snow accumulations of 1-2″ possible.  Storm totals of 9-11″ away from Lake Superior and 1-3″ closer to Lake Superior.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest to west at 15 to 30 mph.  Lowest wind chills around 10 below zero.

.Wednesday…  Breezy with snow showers or flurries at times, otherwise considerable cloudiness.  High 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills from zero to 10 below.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  Snow showers or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  28 degrees
Low:  13 degrees



Issued at 5:02 PM CST, Monday, November 29th, 2010



Until Noon CST Tuesday.

*Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN…Northern Itasca MN…and Cass MN…

*Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls MN…Northome MN…Togo MN…Cass Lake MN…Walker MN…and Leader MN…


Snow, heavy at times will occur in Northern Minnesota Tonight with snow continuing at times into Tuesday.  Some freezing drizzle could mix with the snow This Evening.  In addition to the snow, expect northwest winds to increase with gusts to 25 mph developing by Tuesday.  The snow will lead to icy roads and dangerous driving conditions.

*Snowfall totals of 4-8″ are expected in the warning area by Tuesday Afternoon.

A winter storm warning for snow means snow accumulation is anticipated and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  If you must travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.



Until Noon CST Tuesday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN…Lake MN…St. Louis MN…Southern Itasca MN…Crow Wing MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…and Carlton MN…

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Marais MN…Silver Bay MN…Isabella MN…Two Harbors MN…Duluth MN…Cotton MN…Ely MN…Hibbing MN…Floodwood MN…Grand Rapids MN…Brainerd MN…Hill City MN…Aitkin MN…McGregor MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…and Cloquet MN.


Expect a messy mixture of rain, snow, and drizzle to change to all snow Tonight away from Lake Superior with some snow, falling temperatures, and increasing winds for Tuesday.  The rain close to Lake Superior will mix with and gradually change over to snow late Tonight or early Tuesday.  Expect roads to become icy due to the snow, water on the roads will also freeze by Tuesday Morning as temperatures drop.

*Snowfall totals of 2-4″ are possible by Tuesday away from Lake Superior with around 1-2″ possible close to Lake Superior.

A winter weather advisory for snow means that accumulating snow will cause travel difficulties.  Be prepared for snow covered roads and reduced visibility and use caution while driving.  Allow extra time to reach your destination.



Midnight CST Tonight until Noon CST Tuesday.

*Counties included in the advisory:

Douglas WI…Bayfield WI…Burnett WI…Washburn WI…and Sawyer WI.

*Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Cable WI…Danbury WI…Grantsburg WI…Siren WI…Minong WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…and Exeland WI…


A messy mixture of snow, rain, and drizzle will gradually turn to all snow by Tuesday Morning with some snow lingering into Tuesday Afternoon.  Roads will become icy because of the snow and mixed precipitation Tonight.  Falling temperatures will also occur on Tuesday resulting in any remaining wet roads to become icy.  Use extreme caution if you have travel plans Tonight and Tuesday in Northwestern Wisconsin.

*Snowfall totals of 1-3″ are possible in the advisory area by Tuesday Afternoon.


11/29/10: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:49 PM CST, Monday, November 29th, 2010

High temperature report for Sunday, November 28th, 2010.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.  Temperatures on Sunday were 10 to nearly 20 degrees above normal for late November.

Brainerd, MN:  45 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  40 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  40 degrees
Ashland, WI:  44 degrees
Hayward, WI:  42 degrees
Eveleth, MN:  41 degrees
Longville, MN:  43 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  45 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  46 degrees
Siren, WI:  44 degrees
Phillips, WI:  45 degrees
Bruno, MN:  42 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  41 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  41 degrees
Gurney, WI:  43 degrees
Upson, WI:  42 degrees
Danbury, WI:  46 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  43 degrees

Weather tidbits:

*Sunday’s high temperature of 38 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota was the first time since November 19th with a maximum temperature above freezing, the high temperature on the 19th was 34 degrees.

*A trace or more of snow fell everyday from November 13th-27th (15 days) at Duluth, Minnesota.  This was the longest streak of such an occurrance since a 32 day stretch which occurred from December 17th through January 17th, 1994…Snowfall during that period was 41.4″!  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 1000 mb has moved into Southwestern Iowa as of 3 PM with a cold front centered in Western Minnesota.  Warm air remained in place north of the low and east of the cold front Today with high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s in west/northwest parts of our local area with mid 30s to near 40 degree temps in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastern Minnesota.  Moisture streaming north out of the Central Plains combined with the lift provided by the low to our south has caused precipitation to break out This Afternoon…Locations west of Interstate 35 have seen snow or a mix of rain and snow This Afternoon with far Northern Minnesota seeing mainly snow…Precipitation has been generally in the form of rain in parts of Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  Winds Today were out of the southeast or northeast under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A large upper level trough was in place from the Rockies into the Northern and Central Plains per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A potent upper level low was heading northeast out of Eastern Nebraska/Western Iowa late Today with a strong upper level jet of 120-140 knots in Central Texas.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

Low pressure over Southwest Iowa This Afternoon will move northeast, reaching Northern Wisconsin Tomorrow Morning, reaching Northern Lake Superior by Tomorrow Evening.  Pressures with the low will drop to between 991-993 mb during the day Tuesday as a strong mid/upper level jet max >120 knots heads northeast into the Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Tonight:  Snow will be widespread west and northwest of the Iron Range…Including cities such as International Falls, Northome, Bigfork, and Cass Lake.  The snow could be heavy at times in these areas.  Expect a rain/snow mix for Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota,  gradually turning to all snow from west to east during the night.  Northwest Wisconsin including areas near Lake Superior will see mainly rain Tonight with some snow gradually mixing in with the rain late Tonight.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with south, east, or north winds under 20 mph.

Colder air will overspread the area from southwest to northeast on Tuesday as 850 mb temperatures drop to the teens below zero while high temps which will start in the 20s and 30s early Tomorrow drop to the teens for most areas by Tomorrow Afternoon.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens.

Occasional snow will linger on Tuesday on the backside of the low with some rain still possible early in the day in Northwest Wisconsin.  Snow showers and flurries are expected for Tuesday Night as well.

Winds Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night will become north or west at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible.

*Forecasted snowfall totals from Tonight through Tuesday*

4-8″ accumulations from International Falls, south to Bigfork and Cass Lake…including the counties of Koochiching, Itasca, and Cass MN…

2-4″ accumulations for Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine, Carlton, St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties MN…Lower amounts close to Lake Superior.

Around 1-3″ of accumulation will be possible for Northwest Wisconsin…Including the counties of Douglas, Burnett, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Sawyer, and Price.

Note:  Roads which will likely start out wet Tonight especially in Eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Ports and in Northwest Wisconsin could freeze as temperatures drop Overnight into Tuesday Morning…Vehicle doors could also become frozed shut due to water which may freeze because of either falling temperatures or due to a change over to snow.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure averaging 990 mb will lift north into Hudson Bay Canada on Wednesday, some lingering snow showers and flurries will continue in our area on Wednesday before things dry out from Wednesday Night to Friday.  High temperatures will generally be in the teens for Wednesday and Thursday with low temperatures in the single digits both nights.  Looking ahead, not much going on for our neck of the woods, the system for this coming weekend has been trending farther south with each new model run, also there are some trends that the upper level pattern could become quite blocky by next week which wouldn’t be typical of a La Nina pattern, will be interesting to see how this all unfolds in coming days.  Note:  The 12z EUROPEAN model from Today has quite a bit of warm air moving into the Upper Midwest next week with widespread 30s and 40s possible, nothing is certain that far out in time, but it could happen.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

Timing:  6 PM CST Tonight until Noon CST Tuesday.

.Tonight…  Occasional rain and drizzle mixing with and changing to snow This Evening away from Lake Superior with occasional snow continuing Overnight along with some patchy freezing drizzle.  Occasional rain and drizzle closer to Lake Superior, possibly mixing with or changing to snow.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph, becoming west Overnight.

.Tuesday…  Breezy and turning colder.  Occasional snow showers which could be mixed with freezing drizzle early.  High 30 to 35 early, falling to the teens.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Total snowfall accumulations of 2-4″ away from Lake Superior and around 1-2″ closer to Lake Superior.  Lowest wind chills of zero to 10 below.

.Tuesday Night…  Breezy.  Snow showers and flurries at times.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Lowest wind chills in the teens below.

.Wednesday…  Flurries possible.  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Today:

High:  28 degrees
Low:  14 degrees



Issued at 4:28 PM CST, Sunday, November 28th, 2010

…All headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota…



Monday Evening through Tuesday Morning.

*Counties included in the watch:

Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…Cass MN…Crow Wing MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…Carlton MN…St. Louis MN…Lake MN…and Cook MN…

*Some cities included in the watch:

International Falls MN…Bigfork MN…Grand Rapids MN…Cass Lake MN…Walker MN…Brainerd MN…Hill City MN…Aitkin MN…McGregor MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Floodwood MN…Cotton MN…Hibbing MN…Ely MN…Crane Lake MN…Two Harbors MN…Silver Bay MN…Isabella MN…Lutsen MN…Grand Marais MN…Hovland MN…and Grand Portage MN…


A complex low pressure system will head northeast into the Central Plains on Monday before lifting into Western or Central Wisconsin Tuesday Morning, then into Western or Central Lake Superior by Tuesday Afternoon.  Warm air in place to the north and east of this low will result in rain or a mixture of rain and snow from Northeast and Eastern Minnesota through all of Northwest Wisconsin while snow falls along and west of the Iron Range.  Precipitation will spread in from the south Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening with precipitation lingering through Tuesday before ending by Tuesday Night.  Colder air wrapping into the area of low pressure will cause the rain or rain/snow mix to change to all snow in Northwest Wisconsin, Eastern and Northeast Minnesota on Tuesday while snow continues along and west of the Iron Range.

There continues to be some uncertainty in regards to the storm track, timing, and the temperature profile of the atmosphere, thus changes to the forecast can be expected during the next 24 hours.

*At this time the potential does exist for snowfall accumulations to reach 6 or more inches over most of the watch area with lower totals expected near Lake Superior.

*In addition to the snow, winds will increase out of the northwest on Tuesday with wind gusts possibly reaching 25 mph.  This will cause some blowing and drifting snow in open areas.

A winter storm watch means there is the potential for significant accumulation of snow that may impact travel and commerce.  You are encouraged to stay current with the latest weather information regarding this developing winter storm via local television, radio, the internet, or NOAA weather radio.


11/27/10: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 7:42 PM CST, Saturday, November 27th, 2010

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

High pressure of 1022 mb moved off to our south/east Today with a southerly flow developing in our area on the backside of that high.  Partly to mostly sunny skies occurred Today with high temperatures ranging from the upper teens to the middle 20s.  Winds turned into the south/southeast Today under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A vigorous upper level trough covered Eastern Canada with a westerly flow aloft in place over the Upper Midwest while a new upper trough with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500 mb height falls tracks through the Western U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.


Partly cloudy skies will be found in our area with warm advection continuing thanks to southerly winds.  Lows Tonight will be in the single digits and teens, but temperatures will slowly rise and by dawn expect mainly teens and 20s across our area.  South or southeast winds will continue Tonight under 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will be centered over the Rockies and Western High Plains during this period with southerly winds, milder temperatures, and a strong southerly low level jet of 40-50 knots spreading north into the Upper Midwest.  850 mb temperatures are forecast to rise to between +2/+6 degrees C to end the weekend which will result in daytime highs rising into the 30s on Sunday with a few southern locales possibly inching close to 40 degrees!  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with south or southeast winds from 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Early next week’s storm still needs to be watched closely as there has been a subtle trend with the various models during the past 24 hours to have a wetter system wrapping up over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes during the Monday-Tuesday time frame.  This system will have a good supply of warm air with little if any arctic air in place north of the surface low…The end result to that could be more of a mix or even rain event for Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with mixed precip or snow trending toward all snow in Northcentral Minnesota.  The best potential for precipitation looks to be from Monday Afternoon or Monday Evening, lasting into Tuesday before some flurries and snow showers linger for Tuesday Night as low pressure exits to our east/northeast.  Note:  The HPC forecasters have outlined Northeast Minnesota including the Twin Ports and extreme Northwest Wisconsin in a Slight-Moderate risk for at least 4 inches of snow and a Slight risk for at least 8 inches of snow during the Monday Night/Tuesday time period.  High temperatures on Monday will be mainly in the 30s with lows Monday Night in the teens in western areas with 20s and 30s elsewhere.  Highs Tuesday will start in the 20s and 30s, then temperatures will fall to the teens and 20s by late Afternoon.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens. 

The other system for late next week/next weekend, December 3rd-5th continues to show up on the long range GFS and EUROPEAN forecast models Today with a more northerly storm track predicted by both models.  At this time there looks to be enough cold air in place which will lead to an all snow event and if the EUROPEAN model verifies, then areas near Lake Superior could be hit especially hard as E/NE winds develop resulting in some lake enhanced snowfall either Friday or Saturday.  That storm is about a week away, and the forecast models will likely change the track and the timing during the next few days, but it will be a system to watch in coming days to see what the models do with it.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or snow developing especially late.  High 33 to 38.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  Rain is also possible early.  Low 25 to 30.

.Tuesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow and flurries.  High 30 to 35 early with temperatures falling to the 20s.

.Tuesday Night…  Flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow:

High:  29 degrees
Low:  14 degrees