2/28/11: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:30 PM CST, Monday, February 28th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*194 severe weather reports (6 tornadoes) across portions of the Central Plains and Ohio Valley on Sunday, February 27th, 2011.  Source:  SPC

*113 severe weather reports (4 tornadoes) so far Today across portions of the Southeast U.S. and Southern Ohio Valley.  Source:  SPC

*Meteorological winter (December-February) is almost over.  An early look at the numbers for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location):  39.8″ of snow this winter compared to 56.5″ last winter.  68 days with at least a trace of snow this winter compared to 50 days last winter.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

High pressure of 1024mb was centered over the Central Plains with low pressure of 1002mb centered in Southwestern Alberta Province late This Afternoon.  Southerly winds along with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies were found in our area Today with temperatures closer to average as we close out the month of February.  Highs Today were generally in the middle 20s to around 30 degrees with wind speeds generally under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A fast zonal flow covered the Upper Midwest Today per RUC model analysis with a corridor of 130-150 knot upper level winds extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.  Arctic airmass which was over the Upper Midwest the last few days has pushed north into Canada with late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -14 to -24 degrees C in Western-Central Canada to +2 to +6 degrees C in parts of the Dakotas.

Tonight:

High pressure will be centered to our south/east with low pressure to our northwest.  Southwest low level jet will strengthen to greater than 30 knots Tonight as warm advection pours into the area out ahead of the low to our northwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with a few flurries possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the teens, but some single digits can’t be ruled out.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure will pass by to our north/northeast during this period with a sharp cold front pushing south through our area on Tuesday.  Strong cold advection and gusty north/northwest winds will follow the passage of the cold front.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with falling temperatures in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below zero with some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota as another brief surge of arctic air with 850mb temperatures lower than -12 degrees C drops south into the Upper Midwest.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with a few snow showers or flurries possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Partly cloudy skies for Tomorrow Night, could see a few lake effect snow showers or flurries along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure will be in control of our weather on Wednesday with highs only in the single digits and teens along with dry conditions.  High pressure moves off to our east Wednesday Night and Thursday with a southeasterly wind developing on the back side of that high and out ahead of a low pressure trough which will approach the area from the west.  Light snow associated with a warm advection pattern will occur in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Thursday with snowfall accumulations generally around an inch the way it looks now, the possible exception to this would be along the North Shore of Lake Superior where a couple inches of snow could accumulate on Thursday due to some lake enhancement (E-SE wind)  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with highs on Thursday mainly in the 20s with lows Thursday Night in the teens.

Friday-Sunday (March 4th-6th) look generally dry at this time, but another storm is expected to develop but early indications are for it to remain well to our south/east late this week/weekend.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Windy.  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph becoming northwest during the mid to late Afternoon.  Winds could occasionally gust over 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Breezy and very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible during the Evening.  Overnight wind chill values around 25 below.

.Wednesday…  Cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 8 to 13.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 above.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light snow.  Accumulations around an inch.  High 21 to 26.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 12 to 17.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:49 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:54 PM CST

Tim

2/26/10: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:09 PM CST, Saturday, February 26th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  TWC.  Minnesota Weather Talk Newsletter (Mark Seeley)

*Snow fell in portions of San Francisco, California This Morning for the first time since 1976.

*Miles City, Montana dropped to -31 degrees This Morning.  This was the coldest February temperature reported in 15 years.  Note:  Wind chills were in the 50s below zero This Morning in parts of Montana.

*Record cold Friday Morning, February 25th, 2011:  Seattle, Washington:  21 degrees.  Billings, Montana:  -14 degrees.

*Low temperature of -35 degrees at Cut Bank, Montana on February 25th, 2011 was the coldest on record for so late in the winter.

*The winter storm from last Sunday-Monday, February 20th-21st, 2011 dumped 19.0″ of snow in Eden Prairie, and Bloomington, Minnesota with 20.0″ reported in Madison, Minnesota.  The only other years in Minnesota’s weather history to record a 20″ snowfall in February are 1915, 1922, 1936, 1939, 1962, and 2001.  So, the storm from last weekend was one of the heaviest on record for the month of February.

*High temperature of 5 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on February 25th, 2011 was the coldest maximum temperature since February 9th (6 degrees)

*February 25th-26th, 2011:  Two consecutive days with high temperatures failing to get out of the single digits at Duluth, Minnesota.  Last time this happened was on January 20th-22nd, 2011.

Seasonal snowfall totals (thru February 25th, 2011) in select Minnesota cities:

Kabetogama:  87.0″
Hutchinson:  85.0″
Twin Cities:  Around 75.0″
Montevideo:  70.0″
Fargo/Moorhead:  67.0″

Low temperature report for Saturday, February 26th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -30 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  -18 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  -26 degrees
Hayward, WI:  -11 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  -26 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -24 degrees
Ely, MN:  -29 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -31 degrees
Orr, MN:  -33 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -29 degrees
Longville, MN:  -24 degrees
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  -20 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -25 degrees
Babbitt, MN:  -34 degrees
Cook, MN:  -28 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -34 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  -23 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -29 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -32 degrees
Butternut, WI:  -24 degrees
Upson, WI:  -15 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -15 degrees
Superior, WI:  -8 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  -6 degrees

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

An extremely cold airmass remains over our area Today.  Low temperatures last night plunged to the teens, 20s, and 30s below zero in our local area which is anywhere from 20 to 30+ degrees below average for late February.  High temperatures Today only made it to the single digits to around 10 above zero which is 20+ degrees below average for this time of year.  Mostly cloudy skies with areas of light snow (very small snowflakes) affected all of Northwest Wisconsin, and areas south of Highway 2 in Minnesota with accumulations generally around 1/2″.  Skies north of this area of light snow were mostly sunny Today.  Winds Today were light and variable under 12 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured high pressure of 1014mb centered along the Eastern Minnesota-Western Wisconsin border.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery with a strong upper level jet of 120-150 knots extending from the Southwest U.S. to the Central-Southern Great Lakes per RUC model analysis.  A disturbance pushing through the Upper Midwest in this fast flow aloft helped to trigger the light snow Today.  A powerful 500mb low continued to push S-SE through California Today with H5 temperatures of -34 degrees C and 850mb temperatures of as low as -4 degrees C in parts of California Today.  12 hour 500mb height falls of 90-120 meters were occurring Today in portions of the Southwest U.S. as this storm moves in.

Tonight:

Another night of frigid temperatures is ahead as lows drop to the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with variable winds under 12 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with flurries or a few snow showers possible at times, mainly in Northern Minnesota.  Temperatures will warm-up compared to previous days with highs on Sunday in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the single digits to lower teens above zero.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest under 15 mph on Sunday with winds turning to the northwest or north under 20 mph Sunday Night.  Strong low pressure is forecast to lift E/NE out of the Southcentral Plains from Sunday through Monday, this storm will have no impact on our local area, but it could produce a significant severe weather outbreak (possible tornadoes) from Eastern Kansas and Eastern Oklahoma, east through the Ohio Valley.

Extended Forecast:

Temperatures will be closer to average for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and lower 20s Monday Night with a shot of cold air moving back in Tuesday Night and Wednesday with lows Tuesday Night in the single digits below to above zero.  Looks mainly dry for Monday and Tuesday, but low pressure passing by to our northwest/north on Tuesday will drag a cold front south into our area, this could result in a few flurries in Northern Minnesota Tuesday Afternoon/Evening.  Next opportunity for a little bit of snow will come late next week (Thursday-Friday time frame) doesn’t look like a very big deal at this time, perhaps an inch or two for some portions of our area.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 6 below to 11 below.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  Milder.  High 22 to 27.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:    9

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:53 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:51 PM CST

Tim

2/25/11: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:17 PM CST, Friday, February 25th, 2011

30 day outlook for March 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, February 24th, 2010.

For Duluth:

*33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal precipitation.

90 day outlook for March thru May 2011.  Issued by the Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, February 24th, 2011.

For Duluth:

*33% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with Equal chances for Above Normal, Below Normal, or Normal precipitation.

Weather Tidbits:

*4th consecutive February with below average snowfall in Duluth, Minnesota.  Snowfall total so far this month:  2.9″.  Average for the entire month:  11.4″.  Little or no snow is expected for the rest of February which will make this the 4th February in a row with below average snowfall.  Listed below are past February snowfall totals dating back to 2006.  Note:  Our last February with above average snowfall came in 2007.

February 2006:  23.4″
February 2007:  19.7″
February 2008:    7.1″
February 2009:    7.1″
February 2010:    8.5″
February 2011:    2.9″ (thru the 24th)

Low temperature report for Friday, February 25th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  -23 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  -11 degrees
Ely, MN:  -15 degrees
Orr, MN:  -20 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  -26 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  -20 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  -18 degrees
Northome, MN:  -16 degrees
Cook, MN:  -16 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  -22 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  -23 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  -22 degrees

Duluth, MN:  -5 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1990:  A record low temperature of -26 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Arctic high pressure of 1028mb has built into the Northern Plains This Afternoon with plenty of cold air in place in the Upper Midwest.  Temperatures This Afternoon were only in the single digits in Northern Minnesota and the teens in the Northwest Wisconsin.  Note:  Some locations in North Dakota and Montana didn’t even get above zero Today.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered our area Today with winds out of the northwest or west at 5-15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis with lots of cold air in place with Afternoon 850mb temperatures of -20 to -26 degrees C from the Northern Rockies through the Upper Midwest.  Thursday’s storm responsible for producing 253 severe weather reports (12 tornadoes) in portions of Dixie Alley has moved into the Northeast U.S. Today, in it’s wake was a fast flow aloft >120 knot jet stream winds which extended from Central California through portions of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley.  Several disturbances embedded within this westerly flow are pushing east through the Plains while a potent upper level low drops south through Western Oregon and Northern California per water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will settle into the Upper Midwest through this period.  There could be a few flurries This Evening followed by an area of flurries or snow showers on Saturday from the Brainerd Lakes area east to Hayward and Park Falls, snow amounts on Saturday will remain under an inch.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies can be expected through Saturday Night with lows Tonight in the single digits, teens, and 20s below zero with highs on Saturday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest under 20 mph through Saturday and west or southwest under 15 mph Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A strong area of low pressure in the Central/Southern Plains will lift E/NE from Sunday into Monday, this low will reach the Southern Great Lakes/Lower Michigan area by early next week.  Snow or rain associated with this storm will remain well to our south/east for Sunday and Monday.  There might be a few flurries in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday Night, but for the most part it looks mainly dry into the middle of next week.  High temperatures will modify a bit with mainly 20s for Sunday and Monday with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the single digits and teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 4 below to 9 below.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  Flurries possible.  High 7 to 12.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.  Wind west to southwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures Today

High:  28
Low:    9

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:54 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:49 PM CST

Tim

2/24/11: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:06 PM CST, Thursday, February 24th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 1002mb in Northern Arkansas with high pressure of 1040mb in Eastern Alberta Province late This Afternoon has opened up the flood gates for another round of arctic air as northerly winds setup between the low and high.  Temperatures This Afternoon were only in the single digits below to single digits above zero from Northern Minnesota west to North Dakota while 20s and even some lower 30s continued in Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly to mostly sunny skies were found across our area Today with winds out of the northwest under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

An energetic pattern will persist through early next week and beyond…Water vapor satellite imagery shows one strong system lifting quickly toward the E/NE from the Central Plains while the next one churns slowly south through the Pacific Northwest.  The transition season (winter to spring) is upon us with huge temperature extremes Today which ranged from -3 at Minot, North Dakota to 77 at Dallas, Texas with 80s and even some lower 90s showing up This Afternoon in Southern Texas!  A powerful jet stream >130 knots covered the Great Lakes This Afternoon and also over portions of California, Southern Oregon, and Northern Nevada per RUC model analysis.

Tonight through Friday Night:

Strong high pressure will build southeast into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during this period while a deepening low heads quickly northeast from Arkansas to the Northeast U.S.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will occur in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the potential for a few snow flurries at times.  Lows Tonight and Friday Night will be in the single digits below to above zero with teens below zero and perhaps even some 20s below possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or west under 20 mph through this period.

Extended Forecast:

Could see some snow flurries at times this weekend into early next week, but no major storms are expected for our local area.  There will be another strong storm that lifts northeast out of the Central Plains Sunday-Monday, but the snow and rain associated with that storm will remain to our south/east.  High temperatures will be in the single digits and teens on Saturday with lows Saturday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Highs on Sunday will modify (closer to average) with highs generally in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the teens.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  Morning flurries possible.  High 6 to 11.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 23 to 28.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28
Low:    9

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:56 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:48 PM CST

Tim

2/23/11: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:00 PM CST, Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011

Local snowfall report for Wednesday, February 23rd, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis county)  2.6″
7 miles southeast of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  2.2″
Cotton, MN (St. Louis county)  2.1″
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  2.0″
Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  2.0″
Lutsen, MN (Cook county)  1.2″

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 1011mb was centered in Northern Minnesota as of 4 PM with a cold front attached to this low extending south through Central Minnesota.  Good lift and steep mid level lapse rates led to some bands of moderate to heavy snow Today across Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota with generally 1-2″ with isolated 3″ accumulations reported north of Highway 2 in Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the 20s to lower 30s with south, southeast, or southwest winds under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today with a vigorous disturbance heading E/NE through the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level low/500mb trough covered the Pacific Northwest/Western Canada with another system charging east-southeast out of California.  The storm moving into the Southwest U.S. will lead to a severe weather and possible tornado outbreak on Thursday across Dixie Alley with a winter storm to the northwest-north of the surface low. 

Tonight:

Low pressure will exit our area to the NE with a cold front sweeping east through our area This Evening.  Snow will taper off to flurries from west to east This Evening in Northern-Northeast Minnesota with total accumulations of 1-3″.  Scattered snow showers and flurries could occur elsewhere This Evening with accumulations under 1″.  Mostly cloudy skies with patchy light freezing drizzle is also possible for Tonight.  Lows will be in the single digits and teens with winds shifting to the north and west at 10-20 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Strong high pressure will be centered to our W/NW while low pressure tracks northeast out of the Southern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the teens and 20s on Thursday with lows Thursday Night in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in Northern Minnesota.  North or northwest winds at 10-20 mph are expected during this period.

Extended Forecast:

An occasional flurry risk from Friday through the weekend, but for the most part our area will generally be dry as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest late this week through the weekend.  Another powerful storm is forecast to lift northeast out of the Southern Plains, toward the Ohio Valley or Eastern Great Lakes from Sunday into Monday but on it’s present track this system would have no effect on Northern Minnesota or Northwest Wisconsin’s weather.  Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens below zero, maybe some 20s below in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with some teens below possible in Northern Minnesota.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Occasional snow showers and flurries This Evening.  Accumulations 1″ or less.  Mostly cloudy with patchy light freezing drizzle also possible This Evening.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low zero to 5 below.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 8 to 13.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 8 below.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27
Low:    8

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:58 AM CST
Sunset Tomorrow:   5:47 PM CST

Tim