3/31/11: Thursday’s Weather Report

This is my 1000th weather blog, so I wanted to thank everyone who takes time out to read it.  Thank you very much!!!

Issued at 5:02 PM CDT, Thursday, March 31st, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 3rd day in a row with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  Gotta go back to February 15th-17th, 2011 for the last such occurrence of three consecutive days with a maximum temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*March 2011 had 18 days with a high temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota with 7 days with a high temperature of at least 40 degrees.

*For the 1st time in 9 years and only the 17th time in 137 years of weather records, February produced a maximum temperature warmer than March in the same calendar year at Duluth, Minnesota.  Warmest high temperature in February was 52 degrees on the 16th.  Warmest high temperature in March was 46 degrees on the 17th.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

COLD AND WET APRIL AHEAD?  Here’s the updated outlook for April 2011 per CPC:

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for Below Normal Temperatures with a 40% chance for Above Normal Precipitation.

Note:  Average high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota climbs from 41 degrees on the 1st to 57 degrees on the 30th while the average low temperature goes from 23 degrees on the 1st to 35 degrees on the 30th.

Weather History:

*On this date last year, a record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
*On this date in 2009, 6.2″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

The North Shore of Lake Superior, through the Twin Ports, and Interstate 35 corridor saw quite a bit more sunshine then what was forecasted 24 hours ago, while skies were a lot cloudier in Northcentral Minnesota and also in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  There’s been some light precipitation in the form of wet snow, drizzle, and light rain Today in parts of Northern and Central Minnesota, but this precipitation is having some difficulty in pushing much farther to the east.  Highs Today ranged from the middle 30s to middle 40s with south or east winds under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with a very strong upper level jet with speeds >140 knots lined up Western Canada through the Northern Rockies, Northern and Westcentral Plains per RUC model analysis.  Minnesota sits to the east of this potent jet, thus we are in a favorable area for a few disturbances to drop south-east out of Manitoba Province.

Tonight and Friday:

Expect mostly cloudy skies or increasing clouds This Evening, followed by overcast conditions Overnight into Friday.  Areas of light snow and drizzle will occur at times as a low pressure disturbance moves south/east across the Upper Midwest.  Note:  Snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less are possible by Friday with a spotty 2″ total not out of the question.  Lows Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 30s and lower 40s.  South, east, or west winds under 15 mph can be expected Tonight with wind speeds of 20 mph or less for Friday.

Friday Night:

Mostly cloudy skies are expected with lingering flurries or snow showers for Northeast Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 20s to around 30 with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Saturday and Saturday Night will be dry across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s.  Sunday and Monday, April 3rd and 4th should remain dry for Northern Minnesota, while some wet snow or rain could occur for southern areas…Mainly along and south of a Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward to Park Falls line.  No major accumulations of snow or rain are expected for those areas the way it looks now.  A strong area of low pressure will track through the Northern-Central Rockies on Sunday, moving out into the Central Plains Sunday Night, before lifting E-NE toward the Southern Great Lakes/LOWER Michigan area on Monday…Based on this projected storm track, the heavier amounts of rain or snow would fall south of our local area for Sunday and Monday.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Clouding up.  Occasional light snow and drizzle developing between 9-11 PM.  Snow accumulation of 1″ or less by dawn.  Low 28 to 32.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Friday…  Occasional light snow and drizzle.  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 40.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  23

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim

3/30/11: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 8:05 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 30th, 2011

Weather Tidbit:

*Trace of snow currently on the ground at Duluth, Minnesota.  Today, the 30th of March 2011 marks the first time since November 13th, 2010 with a snow depth of a trace or less.

Weather History:

One year ago Today the high temperature was 63 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Another very nice early spring day across the area with plenty of sunshine and just a few passing mid and high level clouds.  Highs Today were generally in the 40s, except for some 30s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds were light and variable under 12 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Blocking pattern as of late is starting to break down as a very potent 150+ knot upper level jet blasts southeast out of Western Canada through the Northern-Central Rockies/Western High Plains per RUC model analysis.  This is helping to erode the persistent H5 trough which had been over Central Canada and the Upper Midwest during the last few days.

Tonight:

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with high pressure centered just off to our east.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s with south or southeast winds under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Should have less sunshine Tomorrow compared to previous days as a low pressure trough heads east through the Northern Plains.  Southerly winds will be in place out ahead of this system which will draw some moisture north into the Upper Midwest.  Most of Tomorrow looks dry for our local area, but some rain or snow showers could develop by mid or late Afternoon generally west of an International Falls to Brainerd line.  By Thursday Night, the risk for some rain and or wet snow will increase from west to east as a trough of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will continue to move south/east on Friday, this system should reach the Southern Great Lakes by Friday Evening.  Some additional wet snow and or rain will likely be found in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Friday before mainly dry conditions return for Friday Night through Saturday Night. 

Note:  Precipitation totals should be under 0.25″ from Thursday Afternoon through Friday Afternoon with snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less, although a spotty 2″ total is not out of the question…But those should be few and far between.

Highs for Friday and Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 20s.

Mainly dry conditions should continue for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday through Tuesday, April 3rd-5th…There will be a storm system crossing the Rockies this weekend before it pulls out into the Central Plains/Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley areas early next week, right now it looks like the bulk of the precipitation (rain or snow) would remain to our south, although the area along and south of a line from Brainerd to Hinckley to Hayward and Park Falls could see some snow or rain from Sunday through Monday, but it doesn’t look like it would be a very big deal at the moment.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Light snow or rain developing between 9-11 PM, then continuing at times Overnight.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 32.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Occasional light snow and rain.  Total snow accumulations of 1″ or less.  Mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 40.

.Friday Night…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  41
Low:  23

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:36 PM CDT

Tim

3/29/11: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:01 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 29th, 2011

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1028mb covered the Upper Midwest which resulted in another day of sunny skies, light winds, and near average temperatures for the final days of March.  Highs Today were in the middle 30s to middle 40s.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough covered Central-Eastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. with a weak westerly upper level flow in place across the Upper Midwest.  An active jet stream with a couple low pressure systems continue to push into the Pacific Northwest and Rockies, through the Southcentral U.S.

Tonight through Wednesday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather during this period with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible Tonight in the typical cold spots.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be variable less than 12 mph Tonight, winds will become south or east Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A low pressure trough will slide into the Upper Midwest for Thursday and Friday, this system could bring some light rain or snow to our area late this week, but no major accumulations are expected at this time.  This weekend and early next week look mainly dry for our area with the next storm system likely taking the familar southern route for Sunday and Monday…Meaning the threat for rain or wet snow for Southern Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin, while Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin remain generally dry.  High temperatures for Thursday and Friday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Clear.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind variable under 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southeast around 12 mph.

.Thursday…  Becoming mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or rain possible.  Low 28 to 32.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain or snow possible.  High 37 to 42.

.Friday Night…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 27 to 32.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  22

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim

3/28/11: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Monday, March 28th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*Sunday’s (March 27th) low temperature of 1 above zero at Duluth, Minnesota was the coldest minimum temperature since March 2nd when the mercury dropped to -11 degrees.

*2011 is off to a dry start at Duluth, Minnesota.  March will likely go down as the 3rd consecutive month of 2011 with below average precipitation and snowfall.

*Since January 1st, 2.24″ of precipitation has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota which is 1.16″ below average.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Sunny skies with near normal temperatures were found in our area Today with highs in the 30s along with light winds under 12 mph.  Surface map as of 4 PM featured a ridge of high pressure averaging 1026-1030mb from Central Canada through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with a 1008mb area of low pressure centered in Southwest South Dakota.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

An active jet stream carrying multiple low pressure systems extends from the North and Central Pacific through the Central Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic states while a blocking pattern remained in place across the Upper Midwest, Central-Eastern Canada along with a northwest 500mb flow.

Tonight through Tuesday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will continue during this period with lows Tonight and Tuesday Night in the single digits and teens, but some subzero temperatures are likely especially Tonight in the traditional cold spots.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s.  Variable winds will continue under 15 mph through Tuesday Night.

Extended Forecast:

Dry and quiet weather will continue Wednesday and Wednesday Night with highs in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s.  Could see some showers of snow and or rain for Thursday and Friday, but no significant amounts of precipitation are expected at this time.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s to around 40 with lows Thursday Night generally in the 20s.  Might see another minor rain or snow event in parts of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime during the Sunday-Monday time frame (April 3rd-4th)

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Tuesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 36 to 41.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Thursday…  Becoming mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 32.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  39
Low:  21

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:54 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim

3/26/11: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Saturday, March 26th, 2011

Per NWS Duluth, MN:

*FLOOD ADVISORY* remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Riply, Minnesota in Crow Wing county.  The latest stage at 3 PM CDT Today was 9.0 feet.  Flood stage is 10 feet.  The Mississippi River is forecasted to drop below 9 feet on Monday and continue receding through Thursday.

Weather History:

On this date in 2007:  A record high temperature of 72 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A day similar to Friday with below normal temperatures, lots of sunshine for inland areas while scattered lake clouds, snow showers/flurries persisted at times near Lake Superior.  The snow showers reduced visibility for very brief periods of time, but accumulations have been extremely light or non-existent.  Highs Today were in the middle 20s to lower 30s with temps in the Arrowhead right around 20 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Surface map This Afternoon featured a few areas of high pressure averaging 1030mb stretching from Central Canada to the Upper Midwest.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

North-northwest 500mb flow was locked in place over the Upper Midwest which will detour any systems moving into the Western U.S. to our south into the middle of next week.  A cold airmass covers much of the Great Lakes, Northern Plains, and parts of the Central Plains with Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -6 degrees C at Aberdeen, South Dakota; -4 degrees at Kansas City; -10 degrees C at Chicago; and -13 degrees C at Duluth.

Tonight through Sunday Night:

High pressure will remain in control of our weather during this period with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to lower teens above zero with a few Northern Minnesota locales possibly dropping to the teens below zero.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s to lower 30s.  North or east winds will continue under 15 mph.  Scattered lake effect clouds, snow showers/flurries will linger at times through Sunday Night near Lake Superior, but no major accumulation is expected.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure is locked in place and will continue to our area dry and quiet into the middle of next week.  Monday and Tuesday’s high temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s, it’s not out of the question that a few locales could sneak toward 40 by next Tuesday (which is right around average for this time of year) Low temperatures Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the teens.  Models continue to show some sort of a clipper system moving into the Upper Midwest late next week, Thursday-Friday, April 1st-2nd time frame, this system doesn’t look very impressive at the moment, but it could bring some rain and or snow showers to our area as it moves through.

5 Day Forecast for Duluth/Superior

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Scattered flurries or snow showers.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Scattered flurries or snow showers.  High 25 to 30.  Wind northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind north to northeast around 12 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 33 to 38.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  38
Low:  21

Sunrise Tomorrow:  6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   7:31 PM CDT

Tim