5/31/11: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:03 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 31st, 2011

*WIND ADVISORY*

National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT Tonight for the following counties:  Itasca MN…Cass MN…Crow Wing MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…Carlton MN…Central and Southern St. Louis MN…Southern Lake MN…Southern Cook MN…Douglas WI…Burnett WI…and Washburn WI.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Bigfork MN…Grand Rapids MN…Cass Lake MN…Walker MN…Leader MN…Brainerd MN…Hill City MN…Aitkin MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…Wright MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Hibbing MN…Two Harbors MN…Silver Bay MN…Lutsen MN…Grand Marais MN…Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Siren WI…and Spooner WI.

Impacts:  Strong southwest winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph This Evening.  Strong winds may result in some tree branches or weaker trees being blown down.  This may result in some power outages This Evening.  Any loose outdoor items such as trash cans, furniture, and camping equipment should be secured.  The winds may also make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

This wind advisory means that winds in excess of 30 mph are expected.  Use extra caution.

Note:  A couple rounds of severe thunderstorms affected portions of Northwest Wisconsin on Monday with large hail and spotty wind damage.  Another round of severe thunderstorms impacted parts of Northcentral Minnesota late Monday Night and early Tuesday Morning, the Brainerd Lakes area was hit hardest by this second round of storms with widespread wind damage reported.

Local Storm Reports for Monday and Tuesday, May 30th-31st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Morning round:

*6:09 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  Spooner, WI (Washburn county)  Dime and pea size hail

*6:21 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.25″ HAIL.  Gordon, WI (Douglas county)

*6:30 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.25″ HAIL.  Drummond, WI (Bayfield county)

*5:40 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.88″ HAIL.  9 miles southeast of Webster, WI (Burnett county)

*9:37 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  7 miles west of Spooner, WI (Washburn county)

*9:35 AM CDT 5/30/11:  0.25″ HAIL.  2 miles east of Spooner, WI (Washburn county)

*12:47 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles west of Sarona, WI (Washburn county)  Several 8″ diameter trees down along County road D

*2:04 PM CDT 5/30/11:  1.50″ HAIL.  4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI (Burnett county)

*12:15 PM CDT 5/30/11:  0.50″ HAIL.  2 miles north of Shell Lake, WI (Washburn county)

*12:40 PM CDT 5/30/11:  0.50″ HAIL.  6 miles north-northeast of Little Round Lake (Sawyer county)

Late Evening/early Morning round of storms:

*11:30 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Pillager, MN (Cass county)  Power lines downed in the Pillager area.

*11:37 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  5 miles northeast of Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing county)  60 mph wind gust with sustained winds of 40 mph at the Brainerd Airport

*11:37 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nisswa, MN (Crow Wing county)  Trees and power lines down in the area

*11:40 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  Boat lift blown across a Highway in the Breezy Point area.

*11:38 PM CDT 5/30/11:  Merrifield, MN (Crow Wing county)  44 mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

*11:32 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Pequot Lakes, MN (Crow Wing county)  Trees blown down

*11:38 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Merrifield, MN (Crow Wing county)  Trees blown down

*11:58 PM CDT 5/30/11:  2 miles south of Emily, MN (Crow Wing county)  43 mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

*12:34 AM CDT 5/31/11:  McGregor, MN (Aitkin county)  40 mph THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST

*12:05 AM CDT 5/31/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles northeast of Garrison, MN (Aitkin county)  Tree blocking Highway 18 near the Junction with U.S. 169

*11:35 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles northeast of Breezy Point, MN (Crow Wing county)  Significant wind damage…Trees and power lines down across most County roads between County Highway 11 and the Merrifield area.  Trees fell on campers on Mission Lake, no reports of injuries.  Some docks were damaged on the east end of Pelican Lake

*11:45 PM CDT 5/30/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 miles south-southwest of Cross Lake, MN (Crow Wing county)  Two 12″ diameter living trees uprooted

Rainfall report for Sunday Evening through Monday Morning, May 29th-30th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  0.23″
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.52″
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.39″
Gurney, WI:  0.32″
Madeline Island, WI:  0.42″
Upson, WI:  0.61″
Webster, WI:  0.47″

Rainfall report for Monday and Tuesday Morning, May 30th-31st, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.52″
Brainerd, MN:  0.92″
Ashland, WI:  1.52″
Hayward, WI:  0.77″
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.66″
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  0.63″
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN:  0.41″
Cass Lake, MN:  0.66″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.54″
Gurney, WI:  1.92″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.86″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  1.45″

A big temperature contrast occurred across the state of Minnesota on Monday, May 30th, 2011:  Source NWS Duluth and Chanhassen, MN.

Brainerd, MN:  81 degrees
Siren, WI:  82 degrees
Phillips, WI:  81 degrees  Note:  Low temperature was 73 degrees
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  80 degrees
Minneapolis, MN:  88 degrees
St. Cloud, MN:  83 degrees
Redwood Falls, MN:  90 degrees
Fairmont, MN:  88 degrees
Olivia, MN:  90 degrees

Sky Harbor, MN:  48 degrees
Superior, WI:  48 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Strong winds linger into Wednesday
-Sporadic power outages and isolated tree damage may occur due to the high winds Tonight
-Patchy drizzle/light rain showers possible for some areas Tonight
-Thursday and Friday will be our next possible thunderstorm outbreak

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

994mb low was centered in Southeastern Manitoba Province late This Afternoon with the cold front attached to this low moving across Upper and Lower Michigan late Today.  A band of showers and thunderstorms did develop late This Morning/early This Afternoon in portions of Northwest Wisconsin as the cold front moved through, otherwise the big weather story Today were the strong southwest winds on the southeast flank of this intense late Spring storm.  Wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph were common throughout our area This Afternoon with wind gusts of 30-40 mph.  A mixture of clouds and sunshine were seen across the region Today with Afternoon light showers pushing through the Northern half of Minnesota.  High temperatures Today ranged from the 70s in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota with upper 50s and 60s in Northern-Western areas.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Intense 500mb trough with 90-150 meter 12 hour H5 height falls was moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  100-110+ knot upper level jet stream winds were located just east of the surface and H5 low and on the southwest side of the system in South Dakota.  Behind this storm was an upper level ridge which was building north across the Rockies, while another deep trough covers the Pacific Northwest, Western Canada, and Northeast Pacific.

Tonight:

Low pressure averaging 992mb will track into Central Ontario Province.  Brisk southwest winds from 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will continue in our area.  A few showers will also occur Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will move into Hudson Bay Canada while high pressure slides east out of the Northern Rockies.  A few showers are possible Tomorrow Morning in far Northeast Minnesota, otherwise this period looks dry.  Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the 60s with lows Wednesday Night in the 40s.  West winds will continue to be quite brisk Tomorrow with wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.  Winds will subside to 5-15 mph Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

Thursday, June 2nd:  Low pressure will move into the Northern Plains while a warm front lifts northeast into Western-Southern Minnesota.  Warm and moist advection pattern will develop during this period as a southerly low level jet kicks in once again.  Much like Monday, a strong cap will advect E-NE out of the Western High Plains with 700mb temperatures soaring to +10 to +12 degrees C while 850mb temperatures reach the +20s C by Thursday Night into Friday.  Chances for surface based thunderstorms are very low for both Thursday and Friday due to the strong warming aloft, but scattered elevated convection is certainly possible for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday Afternoon into Friday Evening.  Sufficient amounts of elevated instability combined with favorable wind shear and strong mid and upper level winds could lead to a risk of severe thunderstorms, but with the cap in place the main risk from any severe thunderstorms would be from large hail and perhaps some strong winds.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior as onshore winds develop.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Friday, June 3rd:  Low pressure will be passing through the Upper Midwest with a warm front and cold front moving east through our area into Friday Evening.  A strong cap will remain in place on Friday, but instability, moisture, and shear will be more than favorable to cause a few showers and thunderstorms with an isolated severe weather risk.  Highs for Friday will be in the 70s and 80s but it will remain cooler near Lake Superior, however the 12z GFS from Today does have a southwest wind developing even near Lake Superior for Friday with 80+ degree temperatures.  Lows Friday Night will be mainly in the 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

“WIND ADVISORY”
Timing:  Until 10 PM CDT Tonight

.Tonight…  Windy.  Southwest winds at 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph.  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday…  Windy.  West to southwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with a few higher gusts.  Partly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  Showers possible mainly during the Afternoon.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Scattered showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday…  A few showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night…  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  68
Low:  45

Wednesday’s Pollen Forecast

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim

5/29/11: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 6:38 PM CDT, Sunday, May 29th, 2011

Weather Tidbits: 
Source:  SPC

*330 Tornado reports in the U.S. so far in May
*Year to date severe weather reports in the U.S.:  12,978
*Year to date tornado reports in the U.S.:  1,371
*15 tornado reports in Minnesota so far for 2011
*35 tornado reports in Wisconsin so far in 2011

Additional storm reports from Saturday, May 28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

*2:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake county)

*2:58 PM CDT 5/28/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 miles east-southeast of Ely, MN (Lake county)  A couple trees blown down along the Kawishiwi Trail.

*3:28 PM CDT 5/28/11:  1.00″ HAIL.  5 miles north of Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)

*3:32 PM CDT 5/28/11:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  4 miles north of Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)

*3:40 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  1 mile west of Illgen City, MN (Lake county)

*3:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  2 miles east-southeast of Illgen City, MN (Lake county)

*4:50 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.88″ HAIL.  1 mile west of Illgen City, MN (Lake county)

*5:30 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.50″ HAIL.  4 miles south of Stone Lake, WI (Washburn county)

*5:38 PM CDT 5/28/11:  1.00″ HAIL.  2 miles east-northeast of Sturgeon Lake, MN (Pine county)

*5:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  1.00″ HAIL.  3 miles east-southeast of Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)

*5:45 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.88″ HAIL.  1 mile southeast of Moose Lake, MN (Carlton county)

*6:08 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  1 mile west of Wrenshall, MN (Carlton county)

*6:12 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  Carlton, MN (Carlton county)

*6:15 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.50″ HAIL.  New Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)  Gusty winds blew down a swing set and small tree branches

*6:19 PM CDT 5/28/11:  0.75″ HAIL.  Gary New Duluth, MN (St. Louis county)

Rainfall report for Saturday, May 28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

International Falls, MN:  0.40″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.64″
Cook, MN:  0.35″
Embarrass, MN:  0.53″
Grand Portage, MN:  0.50″
Gunflint Lake, MN:  0.54″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.37″
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.43″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.57″
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.21″
Butternut, WI:  0.26″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.13″

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered showers and thunderstorms thru Tuesday Morning
-Severe weather threat begins late Tonight and lingers into Monday
-Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards from severe storms
-Isolated tornado risk late Monday Afternoon-early Monday Evening?
-Gusty winds develop on Monday, lingering into Tuesday Night

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area Today with a couple light rain showers moving northeast through portions of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Late This Afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms had developed from Central Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures Today were generally in the 60s to around 70 degrees with winds switching from the west to the north/east under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow over the Upper Midwest was out of the southwest as a powerful upper level low and upper trough heads into the Rockies per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  A 90 knot mid level jet and a 110 knot upper level jet were located in the Southern Rockies or on the southeast side of this system.  To the east of this system, from the Central and Southern U.S. a late May heat wave was expanding with many areas topping the 85 to 90 degree mark Today as an upper level ridge of high pressure covers areas from the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states.

Tonight:

Strong low pressure of 986-993mb will pull into Colorado with a warm front extending E-NE of that low pushing north into Southern Minnesota.  Warm and moist advection pattern was underway across our area early This Evening and as a southerly low level jet increases to over 30 knots Overnight, expect elevated instability to push north with MU CAPES climbing to 500-1000 j/kg from the Brainerd Lakes, east through Northwestern Wisconsin.  Scattered showers will occur Tonight with thunderstorms also likely, mainly in Eastcentral Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin.  A threat for severe weather will develop especially late Tonight in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with shear of 30-40 knots in place north of the warm front.  Large hail would be the main risk from a severe thunderstorm.  Locally heavy rain and dangerous lightning strikes are also expected with the thunderstorms Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s and 50s along with east or southeast winds under 20 mph will be found in our area Tonight.

Monday and Monday Night:

Deep low pressure averaging 993mb will lift N-NE out of Colorado, reaching Central North Dakota by Monday Evening.  A warm front will be pushing north into Northcentral Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin through Monday Evening while a cold front surges NE out of the Northern Plains Monday Night.

A very moist airmass will spread north into the area with dewpoints getting into the 60s away from Lake Superior.  PWS of 1.00-1.50″ with 850mb td’s of +10 to +18 degrees C will also be found across the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur during this period in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  There will be a risk for severe storms with large hail into mid-Afternoon Monday as elevated instabilty continues to push north.

By Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening, a strong cap is forecast to advect E-NE out of Western Minnesota with 700mb temperatures of +10 to +13 degrees C! It’s uncertain whether or not some additional thunderstorms will develop late Monday Afternoon or Monday Evening in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin due to this cap, however, if storms can develop…Then they will certainly have the potential of becoming severe with very favorable conditions in place to support supercell and severe weather development.

A southwest mid level jet of 60-80 knots will move in from the Northern Plains while a S-SE 850mb jet of 40-60 knots develops in Minnesota out ahead of the low in the Northern Plains.

Plenty of wind shear will be in place with 40-55 knots of 6KM and Effective Bulk Shear with 1km helicity in the 100-250 m2/s2 range.

A risk for a few tornadoes could develop between 5PM-10PM Monday, especially in Central and Western Minnesota where the 1km EHI will be maximized in the 1-3 range per latest model data.  Note:  SREF tornado probs remain very high in those areas as well for late Monday Afternoon/early Evening with values of 4-6 from Westcentral into Northcentral Minnesota.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could linger even past Midnight Monday Night as the atmosphere remains moist and rather unstable, and the lift provided by the approaching cold front could be enough to keep some storms going Overnight with at least an isolated risk of severe weather for our local area.

Monday’s high temperatures will range from the 40s near Lake Superior with 70s and maybe even some 80s in Southern areas while Northern Minnesota and the Iron Range cities remain in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph during this period with higher gusts.

Note:  Areas of fog could develop near Lake Superior Tomorrow into early Tuesday Morning with some locally dense fog possible at times.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday, May 31st:  Strong low pressure passes by to our northwest with a cold front exiting Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Morning.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible into early Tuesday Afternoon, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Gusty southwest to west winds will kick in during this period to the southeast of the surface low.  Wind gusts will likely exceed 25 mph.

Wednesday, June 1st:  Low pressure will pass through Central Canada with high pressure in control of our weather.  Highs will be in the 60s to lower 70s with lows in the 40s to around 50.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms developing, mainly late.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Memorial Day…  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of fog possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday Night…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Areas of fog possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Tuesday…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.  High 70 to 75.  Wind becoming southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  68
Low:  44

Monday’s Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:53 PM CDT

Tim

5/28/11: Saturday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:05 PM CDT, Saturday, May 28th, 2011

Local storm reports from Saturday Afternoon, May 28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*2:40 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  6 miles south of Tower, MN (St. Louis county)  Tree blown down blocking Highway 135 near Highway 26.

*3:35 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Gilbert, MN (St. Louis county)  Tree down in Gilbert.

*3:50 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 miles north of Side Lake, MN (St. Louis county)  3 trees down blocking Highway 5 and Perch Lake Road.

*3:11 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  47 mph at Hibbing, MN (St. Louis county)

*3:35 PM CDT:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  3 miles north of Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)

*3:25 PM CDT:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  5 miles west of Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  Rotating wall cloud with brief funnels or vorticies dipping out of the base of the cloud, no contact with the ground.

Rainfall report for Friday through around 7 AM CDT Saturday, May 27th-28th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Duluth, MN:  0.19″
International Falls, MN:  0.39″
Brainerd, MN:  0.54″
Hibbing, MN:  0.40″
Hayward, WI:  0.25″
4 miles south of Bruno, MN:  0.47″
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  0.54″
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.42″
Cook, MN:  0.25″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.32″
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.21″
Upson, WI:  0.40″
Webster, WI:  0.37″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.37″

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered showers/thunderstorms This Evening
-A few severe thunderstorms through mid-Evening
-Mainly dry for Sunday
-Showers/thunderstorms return Sunday Night thru early Tuesday
-Severe thunderstorms possible Monday-Monday Night

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 998mb was centered in Southern Manitoba Province late This Afternoon.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms did develop during the Afternoon mainly in Northern and Northeast Minnesota as a couple of disturbances rotated around that low.  Moisture was on the low side Today with dewpoints mainly in the 40s, but winds aloft were very strong with a 110+ knot upper level jet in Southern Minnesota while mid level winds of 40-50 knots were found in our area, this combined with ample amounts of shear resulted in a few severe thunderstorms during the Afternoon hours.  The area southwest of International Falls, and also near Silver Bay and west of Silver Bay have seen the bulk of the more intense storms so far Today with even some reports of funnel clouds and wall clouds near Silver Bay, Minnesota around 3 PM Today.  High temperatures under partly to mostly cloudy skies were in the 50s and 60s but some spots in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota made it into the 70s.  Winds Today were out of the south, southeast, or southwest at 5-15 mph with stronger gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough covered portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with -20 to -25 degree C H5 temperatures in these areas.  A belt of strong winds aloft >120 knots extends from Northcentral California to
Eastern Upper Michigan per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Low pressure will remain to our northwest.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Midnight with dry conditions expected Overnight.  A few severe thunderstorms remain a possibility through 9-10 PM This Evening, mainly in Northeast-Eastern Minnesota into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Hail to 1″ in diameter and wind gusts around 60 mph are the main hazards, along with dangerous lightning strikes and heavy downpours.  Latest meso-analysis as of 5 PM CDT showed CAPES of around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of zero to -2 degrees C.  Lapse Rates were in the 6.5-8.5 c/km range.  Around 40 knots of shear was in place with up to 25 knots of 1km shear.  Any storm that can organize enough may pose an isolated tornado risk thru 7 PM This Evening due to the favorable shear and helicity.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with lows mainly in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or west at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Sunday:

Partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected as low pressure passes north of the area.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with west winds under 20 mph.

Sunday Night:

Strong low pressure of around 995mb will move into Colorado with a warm front attached to that low pushing north into Southern Minnesota.  Low level moisture and elevated instability will start to increase Tomorrow Night as a southerly low level jet develops out ahead of this system.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms should begin to impact Southern portions of our area by Sunday Night.  Mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s to around 50 degrees can be expected with winds becoming east or southeast at 5-15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Powerful area of low pressure of 990-995mb will lift north out of the Western High Plains and will reach the Northern Plains by Monday Night.  A warm front attached to this low will lift north out of Southern Minnesota while a strong cold front surges E-NE out of the Dakotas, passing through our local area late Monday Night/Tuesday Morning.

Dewpoints by Monday Afternoon away from Lake Superior will climb into the 50s and 60s with PWS of 1.25-1.50″ and 850mb td’s of +10 to +16 degrees C.

Upper level winds will be very strong on Monday with a 110+ knot jet coming out of the Western High Plains while mid level winds of 60-80 knots overspread the Upper Midwest.  The low level jet will also be on the increase from Monday into Monday Night with speeds of 40-55 knots.

A round of showers and thunderstorms will probably occur Monday Morning into midday Monday as instability increases from south to north.  There might be a severe weather risk during that time with hail being the main hazard.

By Monday Afternoon/Evening, CAPES are forecast to climb to 1000-2500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies from -2 to -7 degrees C.  Shear of 40-50 knots will be in place with 1km helicity values of 150 m2/s2 to 300 m2/s2.

It’s uncertain whether or not additional showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday Afternoon and Monday Evening due to a rather stout cap that is forecast to spread into the area with 700mb temperatures approaching +12 degrees C!

If thunderstorms can redevelop late Monday Afternoon/Evening, then a severe weather threat would occur with hail, high winds, and a few tornadoes certainly possible.  The tornado risk would be greatest near the warm front which by late Monday Afternoon should be centered somewhere in Central Minnesota, possibly even Northcentral Minnesota.

A risk for showers or thunderstorms should continue late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning as the cold front passes through the area.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s near Lake Superior with 70s and even a few 80s possible in Southern areas with 50s in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Monday night will be in the 40s and 50s with a few 60s in Southern areas.  Highs for Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s to lower 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

“SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH”
Timing:  Until 10 PM CDT Tonight.

.Tonight…  A few showers and thunderstorms ending before Midnight.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind variable, becoming west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Memorial Day…  Breezy with occasional showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind becoming west to southwest with gusts to 30 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  68
Low:  44

Sunday’s Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:52 PM CDT

Tim

5/27/11: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:14 PM CDT, Friday, May 27th, 2011

Low temperature report for Friday, May 27th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Grand Marais, MN:  31 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  26 degrees
Ashland, WI:  28 degrees
Hayward, WI:  32 degrees
Silver Bay, MN:  27 degrees
Ely, MN:  27 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  28 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  28 degrees
Floodwood, MN:  29 degrees
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  29 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  26 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  30 degrees
Finland, MN:  32 degrees
Gurney, WI:  26 degrees
Madeline Island, WI:  28 degrees
Upson, WI:  29 degrees
Solon Springs, WI:  32 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 2008:  A record low temperature of 31 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain overspreads the area Tonight
-Scattered showers/thunderstorms for Saturday
-Isolated risk for severe weather Saturday Afternoon
-Dry Sunday
-Memorial Day severe weather threat?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Sunshine during the Morning gave way to increasing cloudiness from southwest to northeast This Afternoon.  A rather large area of light rain and drizzle was pushing E-NE out of the Eastern Dakotas and Western Minnesota Today and the leading edge of this rain as of 3 PM extended from near International Falls to Aitkin.  High temperatures Today were in the 40s around the head of Lake Superior with 50s and a few lower 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest flow aloft has developed in the Upper Midwest as an upper level trough heads slowly east out of the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, a large area of 60-90 meter 12 hour H5 height falls covered those areas Today underneath this upper trough.  A powerhouse jet stream with speeds greater than 140 knots extends from the Central Pacific, east to the Central Rockies and Western High Plains Today per RUC model analysis.  A blazing heat wave is developing south of that jet with temperatures Today in the 90s and low 100s from Southwest Oklahoma to Central-Western Texas into parts of Arizona and New Mexico.

Tonight:

Low pressure will be nearly stationary in Southeast Saskatchewan Province.  A 25-35 knot SW low level jet will advect moisture north into the Upper Midwest and this will cause areas of rain in  Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible Overnight toward the Walker and Brainerd Lakes areas as elevated CAPE rises to around 100 j/kg.  Overcast skies can be expected Tonight with lows mainly in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Low pressure will remain off to our northwest during this period.  An upper level low/trough will pull into the Upper Midwest with a pool of cold air aloft (500mb temperatures of -20 to -25 degrees C) Any leftover showers from Tonight should end Tomorrow Morning, then partial sunshine should take place into early Afternoon which will allow temperatures to climb into the 50s and 60s.  The milder air near the surface combined with the cold air aloft will make the atmosphere somewhat unstable Tomorrow Afternoon and Evening.  Latest model data suggests that CAPES will climb to around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indicies of zero to -3 degrees C.  This will likely result in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon and Evening.  A very strong jet stream with winds greater than 110 knots will be located just to our south with fast winds in the mid levels in place across our area, and this combined with around 30 knots of shear could lead to an isolated severe thunderstorm risk Saturday Afternoon into the early Evening hours with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards.  A greater risk for severe weather would likely occur if there was more moisture in place on Saturday, as it stands now it looks like dewpoints will stay mostly in the 40s with PWS generally around 1/2″.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are on tap Tomorrow with partly to mostly cloudy skies Saturday Night…Looks mainly dry in our area by late Saturday Night with lows in the 40s.  Winds will be out of the south, east or west Tomorrow under 20 mph with southwest or west winds Tomorrow Night under 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Sunday and Sunday Night, May 29th:  Low pressure will pass by to our N-NE on Sunday while a warm front takes shape across the Central Plains.  A few showers can’t be ruled out in far Northern Minnesota on Sunday, otherwise it looks generally dry for the area Sunday and Sunday Night with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

Monday and Monday Night, May 30th:  Deep low pressure of 991-995mb will track from Eastern Colorado to the Central Dakotas.  A warm front will extend E-NE of that low and this boundary will push north while a strong cold front plows NE out of the Northern Plains.  A 40-60 knot southerly low level jet will develop ahead of this storm on Monday with deep moisture streaming into the area.  By Monday Afternoon and Evening dewpoints are expected to range from 55-65 degrees, highest values away from Lake Superior.  PWS of 1.25-1.50″ and 850mb td’s of +10 to +14 degrees C are also expected on Monday.  As the warm front lifts north, there will probably be an area of showers and elevated thunderstorms marking it’s arrival as MUCAPES climb to around 500 j/kg through midday Monday. 

Surface based instability will then develop Monday Afternoon-Evening, at least for Southern parts of our area where CAPES of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indicies of -2 to -6 degrees C are forecast to develop.  How far north the warm front advances by late Monday Afternoon-early Monday Evening is still uncertain and that will be important since there could be a risk for severe thunderstorms including supercells and possible tornadoes near that warm frontal boundary.  If storms don’t form near the warm front, or if the warm front lifts well to the north, near the Ontario border, then will likely have to wait for the forcing associated with the cold front to trigger some storms in our area sometime Monday Night.  Another critical aspect to this forecast will be the cap and the models Today are handling the cap differently.  The 12z GFS has 700mb temperatures approaching +12 degrees C through Monday Evening, while the 12z NAM has H7 temperatures of +6 to +8 degrees C, in other words the NAM shows a much weaker cap compared to the GFS.

The mid and upper level winds with this system look very strong.  60-80 knot SW mid level winds with an upper level jet of around 100 knots approaching from the Northern Plains.  Shear will be very high across the entire area, and the 1KM Helicity and EHI (energy helicity index) look to max out somewhere in Western or Central Minnesota.  The bottom line is that there could be a severe threat Monday and or Monday Evening in portions of Minnesota with all modes of severe weather possible, this would include hail, high winds, and the risk for a few tornadoes..The tornado risk seems greatest in Western and Central Minnesota late Monday Afternoon-early Monday Evening the way it looks now.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s in Southern areas with 40s near Lake Superior and 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers developing This Evening with showers Overnight.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Scattered Afternoon showers or thunderstorms.  Partly sunny.  High 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible during the Evening.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Memorial Day…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  West to southwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  67
Low:  44

Saturday’s Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    High
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:51 PM CDT

Tim

5/26/11: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:53 PM CDT, Thursday, May 26th, 2011

*FREEZE WARNING*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a Freeze Warning from 12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Friday for the following counties:  Koochiching MN…Itasca MN…Aitkin MN…Pine MN…Carlton MN…St. Louis MN…Northern Lake MN…Northern Cook MN…Douglas WI…Bayfield WI…Ashland WI…Iron WI…Burnett WI…Washburn WI…Sawyer WI…and Price WI.  Some cities included in the warning are:  International Falls MN…Northome MN…Bigfork MN…Grand Rapids MN…Hill City MN…Aitkin MN…Pine City MN…Hinckley MN…Moose Lake MN…Wright MN…Cloquet MN…Duluth MN…Hibbing MN…Ely MN…Crane Lake MN…Forest Center MN…Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Cable WI…Ashland WI…Butternut WI…Upson WI…Hurley WI…Siren WI…Spooner WI…Hayward WI…and Park Falls WI.

*Temperatures will fall into the 20s away from Lake Superior and within a few degrees of freezing near the immediate shoreline.  Unprotected sensitive and young vegetation will be damaged or killed by temperatures well below freezing Tonight.  Some hardy species and landscaping will likely not be harmed.

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely.  These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.  Cover tender plants or take them indoors.

*FROST ADVISORY*

The National Weather Service in Duluth, Minnesota has issued a Frost Advisory from 12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Friday for the following counties:  Cass MN…Crow Wing MN…Southern Lake MN…and Southern Cook MN.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Cass Lake MN…Walker MN…Pine River MN…Brainerd MN…Two Harbors MN…Silver Bay MN…Lutsen MN…and Grand Marais MN.

*Temperatures will fall into the low 30s by early Friday Morning with areas of frost.  Sensitive vegetation should be protected against frost and near freezing temperatures.

A frost advisory means that frost is possible.  Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.  Cover tender plants or take them indoors.

Low temperature report for Thursday, May 26th, 2011.  Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  28 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  28 degrees
Grand Marais, MN:  28 degrees
Orr, MN:  28 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  27 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  28 degrees
Littlefork, MN:  29 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  25 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  26 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  26 degrees

Weather History:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 28 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Unseasonably cold temperatures continue Tonight
-Widespread frost/freeze conditions expected by Friday Morning
-Rain threat increases Friday Afternoon/Evening
-Isolated thunderstorm potential Saturday Afternoon
-Memorial Day severe weather threat?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

High pressure of 1020mb was centered to our north/northeast late Today.  Sunny skies and cooler than average temperatures were common in our area Today with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds were variable, or north-east in direction under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

W-NW H5 flow was in place across the Upper Midwest Today behind an upper level low which was tracking through the Ohio Valley per water vapor satellite imagery.  Powerful upper level winds >130 knots were blasting east from the Central Pacific to the Western U.S. with a potent upper level trough with 90-120 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covering the Northern Rockies and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Mostly clear skies will continue in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with lows in the 20s and 30s along with north or east winds under 15 mph.  Widespread frost and freeze conditions are forecast to develop Overnight.

Friday and Friday Night:

A frosty start with some Morning sunshine will give way to increasing cloudiness from west to east as low pressure approaches from the Northern Rockies.  Areas of rain will develop in Western parts of our area between 2-5 PM Friday with rain chances increasing in the Twin Ports, Iron Range, and I35 corridor between 5-8 PM Friday.  Rain will move into Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota after 8 PM Friday.  The threat for rain will then decrease during the Overnight hours of Friday.  High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 50s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 40s.  East or southeast winds are forecast during this period at 10-20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should be around one quarter inch between Friday Evening and Saturday.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will track west-north of our area this weekend.  A weakening warm front and cold front will be moving across the Northland on Saturday.  Instability will increase a bit Saturday Afternoon with CAPES of a few hundred j/kg along with Lifted Indicies of zero to -2 degrees C.  The air aloft will also be quite cold which should help in the development of scattered Afternoon and Evening showers and isolated thunderstorms.  A severe weather risk would probably develop Saturday Afternoon if there was enough warm, moist, and unstable air around our area…Winds in the mid and upper level will be very strong on Saturday, but a lack of warmth/moisture/and instability will result in little or no risk of severe weather.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Saturday Night in the 40s. 

Sunday and Sunday Night, May 29th looks generally dry at this time as one low exits to our northeast while a stronger one takes shape in the Rockies.  A warm front will be developing in the Midwest late this weekend, but this front will remain well to our south until Monday.  High temperatures on Sunday will be mainly in the 60s with lows Sunday Night mainly in the 40s.

Monday and Monday Night, May 30th:  Strong low pressure of around 995mb is forecast to track from the Western High Plains to the Northern Plains.  A warm front extending east of that low will lift north into at least the Southern half of Minnesota while a vigorous cold front sweeps E-NE into the Upper Midwest for Monday Night.  Ahead of this system, a potent 850mb jet from the S-SE >40 knots will pull moist air north into our area with dewpoints by Monday Afternoon-Evening getting into the 50s and 60s for areas away from Lake Superior.  PWS over 1.00″ and 850mb td’s of +10 to +14 degrees C will also spread north into the area on Monday.  In the mid levels, southwest winds of 60-80 knots will surge northeast out of the Western High Plains.  It’s a fairly potent set-up for severe weather, but how far north will the risk extend, and the timing of this system are still somewhat uncertain at the moment as is the potential for a cap which may advect into the Upper Midwest with 700mb temperatures of +10 to +12 degrees C Monday Afternoon and Evening, if this cap develops, then the risk for thunderstorms would hold off until Monday Evening or Overnight Monday.

A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday and Monday Night with Southern portions of our local area having the best chance for severe weather Monday Afternoon or Evening.  Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado risk could develop in portions of Minnesota on Monday based on lastest model data.

High temperatures for Monday will be in the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsehwere, some 70s are even possible toward the Brainerd Lakes, Pine City, Haward Lakes areas.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*FREEZE WARNING*
Timing:  12 AM CDT Tonight until 8 AM CDT Friday

.Tonight…  Clear and cold.  Areas of frost Overnight.  Low 27 to 32, a little warmer in Downtown Duluth.  Wind east to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Increasing cloudiness.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Occasional showers developing between 5-8 PM with showers lingering Overnight.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 42.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered showers, especially during the Afternoon.  High 55 to 60.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers, mainly during the Evening.  Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 62 to 67.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Memorial Day…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers or thunderstorms.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  East winds could occasionally gust to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  67
Low:  43

Friday’s Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Moderate
Grass:  None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:50 PM CDT

Tim