6/30/11: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Thursday, June 30th, 2011

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT This Evening for the following counties.  In Minnesota:  Koochiching…Itasca…Cass…Crow Wing…and Aitkin.  Some cities included in the advisory:  International Falls MN…Littlefork MN…Bigfork MN…Grand Rapids MN…Cass Lake MN…Walker MN…Leader MN…Brainerd MN…Aitkin MN…Hill City MN…and McGregor MN.

*High temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees into early This Evening.

*These hot and humid conditions will potentially produce a heightened risk of heat related stress and illness.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is expected.  The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will combine to create a situation in which illnesses are possible.  Drink plenty of fluids…Stay in air-conditioned room…Stay out of the sun…and check up on relatives and neighbors.

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT This Evening and from 12 PM CDT until 9 PM CDT Friday for Pine county in Eastern Minnesota.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Pine City MN…and Hinckley MN.

*Temperatures in the lower 90s through early This Evening and again Friday Afternoon and early Evening combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat index values ranging from 95 to 100 degrees.

*HEAT ADVISORY*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Heat Advisory is in effect from 12 PM CDT Friday until 9 PM CDT Friday for the following counties in Northwest Wisconsin:  Douglas…Bayfield…Ashland…Iron…Burnett…Washburn…Sawyer…and Price.  Some cities included in the advisory are:  Superior WI…Solon Springs WI…Port Wing WI…Bayfield WI…Cable WI…Ashland WI…Butternut WI…Upson WI…Hurley WI…Mercer WI…Grantsburg WI…Siren WI…Minong WI…Spooner WI…Shell Lake WI…Hayward WI…Loretta WI…Park Falls WI…Phillips WI…and Ogema WI.

*High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will produce heat index values from 95 to 100 degrees Friday Afternoon and early Friday Evening.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Hot and muggy thru Friday away from Lake Superior
-Extreme instability but a strong cap into Friday
-If the cap breaks, look for explosive thunderstorm development
-Severe potential into Friday Evening
-4th of July weekend looks pleasant

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

The marine layer has increased around the head of Lake Superior with cold dense air trapped in place in the Superior and Duluth Harbor areas where high temperatures only made it into the 50s Today along with a copious amount of low level cloudiness.  Farther inland, skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with southerly winds and very warm/muggy weather.  Highs were in the 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints of 65 to around 75 degrees!  Afternoon heat indices were in the mid 90s to low 100s in Western-Southern parts of our area.  Note:  At 4 PM CDT Today the heat index was 98 degrees at Hinckley, MN while at the Duluth Harbor, the temperature was just 54 degrees! Distance between Hinckley and Duluth is about 70 miles.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5-15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb troughs covered Eastern Canada and the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies per water vapor satellite imagery while a large 500mb ridge was in place across the Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest.  A vigorous disturbance was lifting northeast across Utah Today and this system could be a player in our weather for Friday.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM CDT ranged from +22 degrees C at Duluth, MN to +27 degrees C at Sioux Falls, SD to +32 degrees at Garden City, KS.  Widespread 90+ degree temperatures covered portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota, south through the Central-Southern-and Southeast U.S. Today.

Tonight:

Low pressure will be centered well to our northwest with a cold front moving into Western Minnesota Overnight.  Extreme amounts of instability will be found in our area Tonight with CAPE of 2500-5500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -3 to -9 degrees C.  A very strong cap will likely hold most of the night, however, as 700mb temperatures range from +12 to +16 degrees C.  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop eventually, especially from late Evening through the Overnight hours mainly in Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota.  If thunderstorms develop Tonight they could turn severe due to the high amount of CAPE.  Large hail, damaging winds and dangerous lightning will be the primary risks.  Heavy rain will also be a threat with dewpoints away from Lake Superior in the 60s and 70s with PWS around 1.50″.  Lows Tonight will be around 50 degrees in Superior and Downtown Duluth with 60s and 70s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

A cold front will slowly move east-southeast across our area on Friday, it should exit to our east by mid or late Friday Evening the way it looks now.  A very unstable and humid airmass will be found along and ahead of the front with CAPE of 3000-5500 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -4 to -9 degrees C.  Dewpoints away from Lake Superior will be in the 60s and 70s with PWS around 1.50″.  Lift associated with the cold front along with an appoaching upper level trough and a potent disturbance heading northeast from Utah should lead to a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across our area Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening.  Severe thunderstorms are possible as well with 0-6KM and Effective Bulk Shear approaching 40 knots while mid level winds increase to 30-50 knots with an upper level jet of 70-90 knots located toward the Manitoba Lakes.  The setup for severe weather is actually quite potent for Friday and Friday Evening per 12z model run, but a cap will persist with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14 degrees, so slightly cooler compared to Today, but it’s still there.  If severe weather develops the main risks would be from large hail and damaging winds with not so much a tornado threat, although an isolated tornado risk could evolve near lake breeze boundaries or possible outflow boundaries where surface winds back.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 80s and 90s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Note:  Afternoon heat indices will be in the middle 90s to low 100s especially for Southern-Eastern areas.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the north, east or south.  Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the west or northwest.  Wind speeds during this period will range from 10-25 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Mild, but less humid conditions this weekend as high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Cold front moves southeast into the Upper Midwest early next week, most likely Monday Night-Tuesday time frame, showers or thunderstorms could occur as that front moves through.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

“HEAT ADVISORY” for Superior, WI.
Timing:  12 PM Friday until 9 PM CDT Friday.

.Tonight…  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible after Midnight.  Low 60 to 65, 50s near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday…  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Friday Night…  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday…  Less humid.  Warming up near Lake Superior.  Mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.

.4th of July…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Friday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

6/29/11: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:37 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

Weather History:

On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 40 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Few showers/thunderstorms possible into Thursday A.M.
-Extreme instability and tropical like dewpoints Thursday
-Severe risk if thunderstorms can develop Thursday Night
-Excessive heat advisories/warnings hoisted for portions of Minnesota for Thursday
-Risk for showers/thunderstorms once again on Friday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

High pressure of 1018mb was centered in Eastern Illinois This Afternoon with deep low pressure of 996mb in Southcentral Alberta Province with a 1000mb low along the Montana-North Dakota border.  Broad southerly flow was occurring Today across the Upper Midwest with increasing amounts of humidity, especially away from Lake Superior.  Afternoon dewpoints were in the 50s and 60s across our area with PWS ranging from 0.80-1.00″.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies covered the area Today with high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s at the head of Lake Superior to the 70s and lower 80s elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb troughs were in place across Eastern Canada and the Western U.S. while an upper level ridge extends from the Upper Midwest through the Central-Southern Plains per RUC model analysis.  A lot of warm air was pushing NE out of the Rockies and Western High Plains Today with 3 PM 850mb temperatures ranging from +34 degrees C at Denver, Colorado to +30 degrees C at Pierre, South Dakota to +20 degrees C at Bemidji, Minnesota.

Tonight:

Southerly low level jet up to 35 knots will continue to advect deeper moisture into our area Tonight with a big increase in elevated CAPE also occurring with values of 1500-3000 j/kg forecasted Overnight.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with a few showers or thunderstorms possible mainly late.  These storms if they develop would be forming to the northeast and east of the +14 degree C 700mb temperature contour which will be spreading east out of the Northern Plains Tonight.  The threat for severe weather is low for Tonight, but occasional downpours and lightning strikes could occur.  Lows Tonight will be in the 50s near Lake Superior and generally in the 60s elsewhere.  Winds Tonight will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Thursday:

Partly to mostly sunny skies will occur Tomorrow with a risk for a few showers or thunderstorms, mainly before Noon.  CAPE of 2000-4500 j/kg will be developing in our area on Thursday, but a stout cap consisting of 700mb temperatures of +14 to +16 degrees C will advect into the Upper Midwest Tomorrow which should put a lid in any thunderstorm development after Tomorrow Morning.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Dewpoints will climb into the 60s and 70s with PWS around 1.25″.  Afternoon heat indices could soar into the 90s for portions of the Northland, away from Lake Superior.  Note:  Heat indices of 95 to 110 degrees will be found in parts of Western, Central, Eastern and Southern Minnesota Thursday Afternoon.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or east at 10-25 mph.

Thursday Night:

A warm front will lift northeast into the area with high amounts of instability, decent shear, and deep moisture in place across our area, but a strong cap will also be in place.  It’s uncertain whether or not thunderstorms will be able to develop due to the cap’s strength, but if they do, they certainly could turn severe with large hail and damaging wind being the main hazards along with heavy downpours and dangerous lightning.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 60s and 70s, cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will be passing by well to our northwest-north on Friday, a cold front attached to this low will be moving across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Friday and Friday Evening.  Strong instability and decent shear will be in place across our area out ahead of this cold front, but a cap will also continue…A few showers or thunderstorms which could turn severe are a possibility in our area for Friday and Friday Evening.  Dry weather is expected Friday Night through Saturday Night with lowering humidity in wake of Friday’s cold front.   High temperatures will be in the 80s to lower 90s on Friday, except for cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible after 2 AM.  Low 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday…  Humid.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms during the Morning.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night…  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday…  Humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night…  Turning less humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.

Normal temperatures Today

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Thursday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

6/28/11: Tuesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 7:38 PM CDT, Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

Local storm report for Monday Evening, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:05 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Little Marais, MN (Lake county)  0.80″ of rain fell in just 15 minutes.

*8:30 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Silver Bay, MN (Lake county)  0.70″ of rain

*9:09 PM CDT 6/27/11:  HEAVY RAIN.  Grand Marais, MN (Cook county)  0.97″ of rain fell in less than 4 minutes.

*9:15 PM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  7 miles northeast of Little Marais, MN (Cook county)  Water over state Highway 61 between county road 6 and the Manitou River.

Rainfall report for Monday, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Heaviest totals are in bold.

Duluth, MN:  0.26″
International Falls, MN:  0.76″
Hibbing, MN:  1.24″
8 miles south of Bigfork, MN:  1.25″
Littlefork, MN:  0.75″
Pokegema Dam, MN:  1.65″
Babbitt, MN:  2.31″
Cook, MN:  3.34″
Embarrass, MN:  1.40″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.92″
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  1.88″
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  1.40″
Finland, MN:  0.93″
Butternut, WI:  0.37″
Park Falls, WI:  0.37″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.56″
Solon Springs, WI:  0.60″

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

*Today marks the 11th day this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees
*June, 2010 had 10 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees, but had 3 days with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees compared to just one day so far this June.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Tranquil summer weather into Wednesday
-Steamy dewpoints arrive on Thursday
-Big time cap, but still a risk for isolated convection Wednesday Night into Friday
-Extreme instability for Thursday could mean a severe risk should storms develop

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A near perfect early summer day with some Morning clouds giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine during the Afternoon for most of the us.  Highs Today were in the 70s with some 60s in the Arrowhead.  Winds were out of the north, west or southwest under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Potent 500mb low/trough was moving into Eastern Canada with a W-NW H5 flow covering the Upper Midwest behind this system while an upper level ridge continued to dominate the Central and Southern U.S. per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

Mostly clear skies are on tap with patchy late night fog.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south or west winds under 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

High pressure will be centered to our east during this period while an upper level trough covers the Western U.S.  Southerly flow will begin to draw some moisture north into our area with dewpoints reaching the 50s and 60s while PWS increasing to around an inch.  Elevated instability will also push E-NE into the area with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg expected by Wednesday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected during this period with a few showers or thunderstorms possible by Wednesday Night as instability increases in a warm advection regime.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10-20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Deep low pressure will pass well to our northwest for Thursday and Friday.  A cold front will head east out of the Northern Plains, crossing the Upper Midwest sometime Thursday Night or Friday.  Southerly winds ahead of this boundary will pump tropical moisture into our area with dewpoints on Thursday getting into the 65-75 degree range while PWS range from 1.25-1.75″.  Extreme amounts of instability are also being forecasted for Thursday by the models Today with CAPE on the order of 4000-6000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -5 to -9 degrees C.  Mid and upper level winds look favorable for storm organization as does the low level jet…1KM Helicity is forecast to be around 150 m2/s2 Thursday Evening with 0-6KM Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear averaging 30-40 knots.  Those parameters are all favorable for severe thunderstorm development as the cold front moves in especially Thursday Evening/Overnight, the issue with getting thunderstorms to develop will be a tremendous cap consisting of 700mb temperatures of +14 to +16 degrees C! It’s uncertain whether or not any thunderstorms will develop in our area Thursday into early Friday, but if they do they certainly could become severe with the ingredients that will be in place.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 60s and 70s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Looks mainly dry for Friday and Saturday with westerly winds and drier air moving in behind the cold front.  It will still be plenty warm, however, with widespread 80s expected in our area on Friday.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind variable under 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 55 to 60, cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday…  Humid.  Partly sunny.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 81 to 86.

.Friday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 57 to 62.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Wednesday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:06 PM CDT

Note:  Duluth/Superior Harbor water temperature as of June 28th:  48.8 degrees

Tim

6/27/11: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 7:36 PM CDT, Monday, June 27th, 2011

Rainfall report for Sunday thru Monday Morning, June 26th-27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

Note:  Highest totals are in bold.

International Falls, MN:  0.58″
Hibbing, MN:  0.23″
Cass Lake, MN:  0.96″
Littlefork, MN:  0.33″
Northome, MN:  1.19″
Cook, MN:  2.10″
Embarrass, MN:  0.38″
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  1.06″
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.50″
2 miles south of Cohasset, MN:  2.30″
3 miles southeast of Cohasset, MN:  3.00″
16 miles north of Deer River, MN:  3.00″
1 mile southwest of Round Lake, MN:  2.84″
11 miles north of Marcell, MN:  5.25″
8 miles northeast of Cook, MN:  5.40″
Wirt, MN:  3.10″
15 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN:  3.15″

Local storm report for Monday, June 27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*8:35 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  37 mph.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)

*8:40 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca county)  Trees down in the Grand Rapids area.

*8:45 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  1 mile east of Bear Lake, MN (Itasca county)  Roads beginning to wash out.  Water over multiple roads and highways in the Bear Lake area.

*8:58 AM CDT 6/27/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  Nashwauk, MN (Itasca county)  Trees blown down on county roads 8 and 56 near Nashwauk.  A few trees on power lines and power outages reported in the Grand Rapids and to the east near Nashwauk…Pengilly…and Warba.

*9:15 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  2 miles east of Marcell, MN (Itasca county)  Report of a partial washout on Highway 45 between county road 7 and state highway 38.

*9:20 AM CDT 6/27/11:  FLASH FLOOD.  6 miles south-southeast of Meadow Brook, MN (St. Louis county)  Water running over county highway 22, 1.5 miles west of Highway 73.

Weather Tidbits:

*508 severe weather reports, 375 of which were damaging wind reports per SPC on Sunday, June 26th, 2011.  The bulk of the severe weather was in the Northcentral U.S. down into the Southeast U.S.
*Wake low caused the pressure to drop 7mb in 50 minutes at Sioux Falls, SD Sunday Evening.  Wake lows form on the backside of thunderstorm complexes and can sometimes produce damaging wind gusts.

Extreme heat in the Southern Plains on Sunday, June 26th, 2011.
Source:  TWC.

Gage, OK:  113 degrees
Dodge City, KS:  110 degrees
Borger, TX:  113 degrees
Dalhart, TX:  110 degrees
Childress, TX:  117 degrees
Amarillo, TX:  111 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Rain in Northern-Northeast Minnesota tapers off late Tonight
-Dry and pleasant weather for Tuesday and Wednesday
-Warm wave and humid weather mid to late week
-Cooling lake breezes Wednesday-Thursday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 1004mb has moved into Central Lake Superior early This Evening with high pressure of 1018mb centered in Western South Dakota.  An area of heavy rain and thunderstorms developed early This Morning and lingered into early This Afternoon in portions of Northcentral and Northeast Minnesota…Underneath this nearly stationary band of rain, there were reports of flooding and some excessive rain totals on the order of 2-5″! Isolated severe thunderstorms also developed This Morning from the Brainerd Lakes area, northeast to Grand Rapids and Westcentral portions of St. Louis county with some wind damage reported in those areas.  The rest of the area saw partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies Today with scattered showers, but a line of thunderstorms did develop This Afternoon affecting the Hayward Lakes area, east to Price county Wisconsin, those storms stayed below severe levels, but did drop some locally heavy rainfall.  As of early This Evening, areas of rain lingered in Northern-Northeast Minnesota underneath the upper level low/trough with a few thunderstorms in the Arrowhead.  High temperatures Today were in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or northwest at 10-20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Potent H5 trough/low with it’s 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls was moving east through the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  500mb ridge and W-NW upper level flow was found behind this system over the Northern Plains.

Tonight:

Occasional rain will persist through Midnight north of a Grand Rapids to Two Harbors, Minnesota.  A few thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also continue This Evening in the Arrowhead of Minnesota with some possible flooding.  By late Tonight, expect partly-mostly cloudy skies in our area with a threat for some showers mainly in the Arrowhead.  Lows Tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Dry weather during this period as Today’s system exits to our east while high pressure heads into the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Tuesday will be mainly in the 70s with lows Tuesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Pleasant weather for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with slightly more humidity moving in by mid-week compared to Tuesday.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Thursday looks down right warm and muggy as high temperatures reach the 80s in most areas with a few locales possibly nudging close to 90 degrees! Dewpoints will also be on the rise with widespread 60s and 70s away from Lake Superior.  It does look like a lake breeze will develop Wednesday and Thursday which will result in much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior both those days.  A cold front looks to pass through the area sometime Thursday Evening or on Friday, the atmosphere ahead of this front will be extremely capped with 700mb temperatures forecasted to be around +16 degrees C! The computer models are showing a lot of instability and good wind shear developing ahead of this front across our area late this week, but the strong cap in place should keep the threat for thunderstorms and severe weather on the low side the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Humid.  Low 60 to 65, cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  52 degrees

Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

6/26/11: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 5:01 PM CDT, Sunday, June 26th, 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Occasional rain/scattered thunderstorms Tonight
-Shower chances linger into Monday
-Dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday
-Near to slightly below average temperatures thru Tuesday
-Warm wave mid to late week, especially away from Lake Superior
-Pattern change after the 4th of July?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A cold front was moving into extreme Northwest Minnesota late This Afternoon.  A moist airmass was in place out ahead of this front Today with dewpoints from 55 to around 65 degrees, PWS around 1.30″ with 850mb td’s from +8 to +12 degrees C.  An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms pushed through parts of Northern Minnesota This Morning.  Behind these showers, skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy in Northern-Eastern Minnesota and partly cloudy to mostly sunny in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 70s, with 50s in Superior and the Duluth Harbor as the lake breeze became more pronounced once again.  Winds Today were out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  An upper level trough was digging south/east from Western Canada and the Northern Rockies.  A large upper level ridge was in place over the Southern U.S. with extreme heat from Kansas to Texas and into the Southeast U.S.  Note:  Some locations in Oklahoma and Texas topped out over 110 degrees Today!

Tonight:

Cold front moves east into Northern-Central Minnesota Overnight.  Abundant moisture and some forcing associated with the front and approaching H5 trough will lead to occasional rain and showers across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Tonight.  Some of the rain could be locally heavy and scattered thunderstorms are possible as well with a threat for dangerous lightning strikes.  The overall severe threat is rather low, however, with marginal instability with CAPE generally around 500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of zero to -3 degrees C.  Shear is favorable for severe weather though with 1KM Helicity around 200 m2/s2 and 0-6KM and Effective Bulk Shear of 30-40 knots, but the lack of instabilty will likely keep the majority of thunderstorms below severe levels for Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, west or east under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Cold front will pass through Northeast-Eastern Minnesota Monday Morning and will move through Northwestern Wisconsin by mid-Afternoon Monday.  Areas of rain will be found into early Monday Afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin, Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota with a few Afternoon/early Evening showers and isolated thunderstorms redeveloping in Northcentral Minnesota underneath the cold upper level trough.  Highs Tomorrow under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds on Monday will be out of the south, east or west at up to 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northwest at 10-20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50″ will be common across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin by Monday Afternoon with localized greater amounts ranging from 0.50-2.00″.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be in the 70s both days with lows in the 40s and 50s.  A vigorous low will pass well to our northwest during the Thursday-Friday (June 30th-July 1st) time frame, the airmass ahead of this system will be extremely capped so as the cold front moves across the area Thursday or early Friday it should come through generally dry with just a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Widespread 80s are still expected on Thursday and possibly on Friday as well, but a lake breeze should keep the warmth from making it to lakeshore communities on Thursday, winds will swing around to the west on Friday though which will bring the warm air right up to Lake Superior.

The EUROPEAN and GFS computer models are hinting at a pattern change after the 4th of July as an upper level low develops in Hudson Bay Canada, this in turn will cause the upper level winds to back more northwest or northerly which could result in a period of cooler than average temperatures once again for portions of the Upper Midwest.  This is still a long ways out, so things may change between now and then.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain developing.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 80%.

.Monday…  Occasional rain into early Afternoon.  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers still possible during the Afternoon.  High 62 to 67.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 80% during the Morning and 20% in the Afternoon.

.Monday Night…  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 48 to 53.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74 degrees
Low:  51 degrees

Monday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  High
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim