7/29/11: Friday’s Weather Report

Issued at 3:35 PM CDT, Friday, July 29th, 2011

*6th WARMEST JULY TO DATE AT DULUTH, MINNESOTA*
Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

6th warmest July to date at Duluth, Minnesota.  Through July 28th, the average temperature is 69.6 degrees.

Warmest July thru the 28th:  71.7 degrees in 2006
2nd warmest:  71.4 degrees in 1921 and 1881
4th warmest:  70.7 degrees in 1936
5th warmest:  70.4 degrees in 1878
6th warmest:  69.6 degrees in 2011

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Isolated showers/thunderstorms for Southern areas Tonight
-Severe risk Saturday-Saturday Evening
-Dry push for most areas on Sunday
-Next threat for showers/thunderstorms occurs early next week

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A weak boundary was over Central Minnesota Today and a few showers and thunderstorms have been developing at times near that front from Central Minnesota to Northwest Wisconsin while Northern areas have stayed dry.  Partly to mostly sunny skies covered our area Today with high temperatures generally in the lower to middle 80s with dewpoints ranging from the low 50s in the Arrowhead to around 60 degrees elsewhere.  Winds Today were out of the west or southwest under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A near zonal flow (west-east) was in place over the Upper Midwest while a large upper level high pressure ridge continues to bake areas from the Rockies through the Central-Southern U.S. into the Eastern U.S. per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible before 10PM, especially along and south of a Brainerd to Moose Lake to Butternut line.  Severe weather is not expected This Evening, but brief downpours and occasional lightning strikes are a possibility.  The rest of Tonight should be dry in our area with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, west or east under 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

S-SW 850mb jet of around 30 knots will develop in our area on Saturday out ahead of a southeastward moving cold front.  Moisture and instability will both be on the increase ahead of this boundary with dewpoints getting into the 60s to around 70 degrees with PWS of around 1.25″.  CAPE is forecasted to reach the 1500-3500 j/kg range with Lifted Indices from -3 to -8 degrees C.  A strong disturbance will track east, but stay well to our northwest during this period but the southern flank of the energy off that disturbance coupled with the cold front approaching the Upper Midwest should result in the formation of scattered showers and thunderstorms across Northern and Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin especially from Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Evening.

Wind shear will be present ahead of this front with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR while SW winds at 850mb turn W-NW at 500mb.  A 90 knot jet streak will be located to our northwest, around the Manitoba Lakes region with a 60 knot jet streak off to our southwest in South Dakota.  1KM Helicity is forecast to be around 150 m2/s2 Saturday Afternoon-Evening with 1KM EHI values of around 1-2.

There is a threat for some severe thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon and Evening across most of the area with large hail and damaging wind being the main threats along with locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.  The tornado potential is fairly low, although one can’t be ruled out especially in Northcentral Minnesota late Saturday Afternoon or early Saturday Evening.

Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 80s with lows Tomorrow Night in mainly in the 60s.  Southwest winds are expected on Saturday with southwest or northwest winds Saturday Night…Wind speeds during this period will be at or less than 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Cold front should clear Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Sunday Morning, this boundary will then stall out somewhere in Southern or Central Minnesota for Sunday Afternoon into early Monday.  A push of drier and more stable air will move into our area behind this cold front and this should keep our area dry for Sunday and Sunday Night with the threat for showers/thunderstorms staying south of our area.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 50s for most areas.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Another cold front looks to pass through the Upper Midwest sometime early next week, in the Monday Night-Tuesday time frame.  A round of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this system for early next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph, becoming southeast.

.Saturday…  More humid.  Partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 82 to 87.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Saturday Night…  Humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west Overnight.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Less humid.  High 80 to 85.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

.Monday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early.  Mostly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Saturday’s Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim

7/28/11: Thursday’s Weather Report

Issued at 7:59 PM CDT, Thursday, July 28th, 2011

Incredible rain totals during the past 24 hours in portions of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.
Source:  WGN TV.  NWS Chicago, IL and La Crosse, WI.

Galena, Illinois:  14.50″
Dubuque, Iowa:  14.30″/fell in 12 hours!
Sinsinawa, Wisconsin:  10.11″

Weather Tidbits:

*68,028 lightning strokes occurred last night in Eastern Iowa, Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin (WGN TV)
*Winds gusted to 92 mph off Chicago’s shoreline with those storms last night (WGN TV)
*Wettest July ever at Chicago O’Hare.  9.80″ of rain has fallen so far in July 2011 which beats the previous record of 9.56″ set in 1889.  (WGN TV)
*July 2011 is the 9th wettest month in Chicago, Illinois.  The wettest month on record occurred in August, 1987 when 17.10″ of rain fell.  (WGN TV)

*2.38″ of rain has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota during the past 10 days.
*16 days so far this month with at least a trace of rain at Duluth, Minnesota.
*4.48″ of rain so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota which is 0.67″ above average.
*Today marks the 13th day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota.  July 2010 had 13 days at or above 80 degrees with zero days in the 90s whereas July 2011 has had 3 days in the 90s.

Blazing heat continues down south.
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times.

*San Angelo, Texas:  Tuesday marked the 61st day of 100+ degree temperatures.  This breaks the old record of 60 days set in 1969.
*Abilene, Texas:  47th day at or above 100 degrees.  This breaks the previous record of 46 days set in 1934.
*Tuesday marked the 56th consecutive day with 90+ degree temperatures in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.  This is the 2nd longest streak on record.
*Dallas, Texas high of 102 degrees on Tuesday and another day above the century mark on Wednesday makes it the 26th straight day of 100 degree heat.  This ties for the 3rd longest stretch with August 1952 of 100 degree temperatures.

Weather History:

On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 97 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1992:  A record low temperature of 45 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Slight chance for a shower/thunderstorm in far Northern Minnesota Tonight
-Mainly dry thru Friday Night
-Mild temperatures continue into early next week
-Thunderstorm threat increases this weekend, but especially Saturday into early Sunday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Widespread thick fog developed in our area early This Morning, the fog burned off shortly after sunrise with partly to mostly cloudy skies occurring for the rest of the day.  An isolated shower did develop This Afternoon in Southern Itasca County Minnesota, near the Grand Rapids area and a few strong thunderstorms developed late This Afternoon in Southeastern Price County Wisconsin, mainly near the Spirit area.  Outside of those locations it was a dry day.  Highs Today were mainly in the 80s with dewpoints running in the 50s and 60s.  Winds were out of the west under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was moving east through the Manitoba Lakes region early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  A west-southwest upper level flow was occurring ahead of this system over the Upper Midwest.

Tonight:

Partly cloudy skies will be found in our area with patchy late night fog possible, although it should not be as dense or as widespread as last night.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible late Tonight, mainly along the Minnesota-Ontario border.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with west winds under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest during this period.  Expect partly cloudy skies with highs on Friday mainly in the 80s with lows Friday Night in the 50s and 60s.  West, northwest or southwest winds under 20 mph can be expected.

Extended Forecast:

Southerly flow develops on Saturday as a cold front moves into Minnesota.  Dewpoints will climb into the 60s to lower 70s with PWS of 1.00-1.50″.  Instability will be on the increase with CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -2 to -6 degrees C.  Wind shear will also be present on Saturday with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday into early Sunday with a few severe thunderstorms possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening, especially in Northcentral, Northeast and Eastcentral Minnesota the way it looks now.  Large hail and damaging wind would be the main threats from any severe weather, and heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night mainly in the 60s.  Sunday and Sunday Night should generally be dry, but a few showers or thunderstorms can’t be ruled out mainly in Southern portions of our area, or from the Brainerd Lakes region, east into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.

A new cold front moves across our area sometime Monday Night or Tuesday…Models are hinting at strong MCS development in the Northland as this boundary moves through.  Timing of this system is still somewhat uncertain since it’s still a good 4 days away, but recent model data shows that Monday Night and or Tuesday Morning could be a tad stormy.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog possible Overnight.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west under 12 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  More humid.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Saturday Night…  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Friday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Weed:  Low
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:45 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:45 PM CDT

Tim

7/27/11: Wednesday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:01 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 27th, 2011

Rainfall report for Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning, July 26th-27th, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Note:  Higher totals are in bold.

Duluth, MN:  0.65″
International Falls, MN:  0.38″
Brainerd, MN:  0.82″
Hibbing, MN:  0.52″
Ashland, WI:  0.40″
Hayward, WI:  0.30″
7 miles northwest of Brainerd, MN:  1.95″
Bruno, MN:  0.78″
12 miles north of Isle, MN:  1.14″
3 miles northeast of Nisswa, MN:  1.27″
Gull Lake Dam, MN:  2.23″
Northome, MN:  0.34″
Floodwood, MN:  0.47″
Pillager, MN:  2.81″
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.42″
Upson, WI:  0.74″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.54″
Gordon, WI:  1.20″
Solon Springs, WI:  0.68″

Note:  Lightning hits a tree and starts 3 house fires in Duluth, Minnesota at 4:10 AM Today.  The fires were on East 9th Street in Duluth with one house extensively damaged.  No injuries were reported.  Source:  NNC

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Isolated showers/thunderstorms This Evening
-Mainly dry with mild temps for Thursday and Friday
-Weekend storm chances
-U.S. heat wave has killed at least 64 people (TWC)

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

The large complex of rain and scattered thunderstorms which affected most of the area last night and early This Morning exited to our south-east This Afternoon.  Cloudy skies lingered throughout the day in Northeast Minnesota while some clearing took place from Northern to Eastcentral Minnesota and into Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Today were in the 60s in Northeast Minnesota with 70s and lower 80s farther west and south.  It was quite humid especially away from Lake Superior with dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s This Afternoon while PWS ranged from 1.00-1.50″.  Winds Today were out of the west, south or east under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Southwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level low was moving E-NE across Manitoba Province Today while a potent disturbance drops S-SE across the Pacific Northwest per water vapor satellite imagery, meanwhile a large ridge of high pressure blanketed the Central-Southern U.S. with widespread 90 and 100+ degree temperatures Today along and south of a line from Central Iowa Northern Illinois.

Tonight:

A cold front in Central Minnesota late This Afternoon will move east, passing through our area Tonight.  An area of high instability has developed This Afternoon in Northern Minnesota and portions of Northwest Wisconsin with CAPE of 1500-3500 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7 degrees C.  Low level moisture is present, but drier air has moved in aloft, so even with the instability in place the potential for getting a few thunderstorms to develop is quite low, if any storms did form they should remain below severe levels with lightning and heavy rainfall being the main threats, any activity should occur prior to 11 PM Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with patchy fog.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds becoming west under 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Pleasant weather is expected during this period as Tonight’s cold front pushes south/east of our area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with partly cloudy skies.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 50s and 60s with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the west under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Friday should remain generally dry the way it looks now with highs getting back into the 80s for most areas.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Moisture and instability are forecasted to increase this weekend as cold front moves into the region.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday depending on the speed of the front.  Could be a severe risk Saturday Afternoon or Evening, especially for the Northern half of Minnesota the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night mainly in the 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy early.  Becoming partly cloudy during the night.  Low 59 to 64.  Wind southeast under 12 mph, becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Warmer.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 81 to 86.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Saturday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 62 to 67.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:46 PM CDT

Thursday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Low
Tree:    None
Weed:  None

Tim

7/25/11: Monday’s Weather Report

Issued at 4:15 PM CDT, Monday, July 25th, 2011

Local Storm Report from Saturday, July 23rd, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

*11:47 PM CDT 7/23/11:  1.00″ HAIL.  7 miles west-northwest of Phillips, WI (Price County)  Occurred in Lugerville Township.

*10:55 AM CDT 7/23/11:  THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST.  51 mph.  5 miles southwest of Phillips, WI (Price County)

Weather History:

On this date in 1989:  A record high temperature of 89 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Pleasant summer weather Tonight and Tuesday
-Lake breeze returns Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior
-Possible rain/thunderstorm complex Tuesday Night-Wednesday

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

A weak surface trough continues to push S-SE Today and as of late This Afternoon this boundary extended from Northern Wisconsin back to Eastcentral Minnesota.  Strong winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere covered our area Today along with high amounts of wind shear, instability and moisture is lacking, however with CAPE generally <1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices at -2 to around -5 degrees C.  A few intense thunderstorms have been developing This Afternoon in Southern Upper Michigan and in Southwest Minnesota, but nothing much has been going on in between those two areas.  Highs Today under partly to mostly sunny skies were in the middle 70s to middle 80s with dewpoints of 55 to around 60 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the northwest or southwest at 10-20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Strong 500mb trough/low was moving E-SE across Central Canada per water vapor satellite imagery.  Fast northwest flow covered the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of that system.  500mb ridge was in place from the Central-Southern Rockies, east through the Plains and Southern U.S. while a potent upper level trough with 60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight:

Trough will exit Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota early Tonight, might see a shower or thunderstorm pop up before 9PM in Northwest Wisconsin, otherwise dry weather will be found in our area Tonight under partly cloudy skies.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s but some 40s are possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Tonight will be out of the north or west under 15 mph.

Tuesday:

Area of high pressure will track across the Upper Midwest.  Partly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s but it will be turning cooler near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday Night:

High pressure will move off to our east while low pressure heads into the Northern Plains.  A warm front attached to this low will lift E-NE into the Upper Midwest.  Low level jet of around 40 knots will cause a warm/moist advection pattern with PWS climbing to between 1.00-1.75″ during the night.  Elevated instability will also be on the rise Tuesday Night with CAPE approaching 1000 j/kg in Southern areas.  A cluster of thunderstorms, possibly severe or in the form of a bow echo are forecasted to develop in the Northern Plains Tuesday Afternoon, this area of storms will then propagate toward the east or east-southeast Tuesday Night.  Severe weather potential for our local area looks rather low at this point as instability will be somewhat marginal, but the wind shear will be strong so some isolated severe thunderstorms can’t be ruled out mainly affecting Southern Cass, Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin, Pine Counties in Minnesota, and Burnett and Washburn Counties in Wisconsin.  If severe weather develops, the main threat would be from damaging wind and possibly large hail.  Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning are also possible in the storms Tuesday Night.  Expect skies to become mostly cloudy with lows Tuesday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south or east under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A warm front will continue to move E-NE across the Upper Midwest on Wednesday while a cold front slides southeast across our area from Wednesday Afternoon into Thursday.  A threat for mainly Morning showers or thunderstorms does exist on Wednesday, thereafter it looks generally dry, although a few showers or thunderstorms could redevelop in spots Wednesday Afternoon and again on Thursday, but coverage should be much less compared to Tuesday Night.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s with some 80s possible around the Brainerd Lakes area.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Highs for Thursday will mainly be in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 54 to 59.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80  but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Becoming mostly cloudy.  Rain developing late.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible mainly during the Morning.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:

Tree:    Low
Grass:  Low
Weed:  None

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:41 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim

7/24/11: Sunday’s Weather Report

Issued at 6:51 PM CDT, Sunday, July 24th, 2011

Rainfall report for Saturday, July 23rd, 2011.
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

Duluth, MN:  0.90″
Brainerd, MN:  0.29″
Hibbing, MN:  0.50″
Bruno, MN:  0.46″
6 miles west of Sandstone, MN:  0.74″
Cook, MN:  0.42″
Embarrass, MN:  0.38″
Floodwood, MN:  0.34″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.33″
Finland, MN:  0.29″
Ashland, WI:  0.46″
Butternut, WI:  0.60″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.40″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.46″
Winter, WI:  0.55″

Weather Tidbits:

*68 degree high temperature at Duluth, MN on July 23rd was the coldest maximum temperature since July 14th when it was 62 degrees.
*Saturday’s high of 68 degrees at Duluth, MN occurred at 12:10 AM, temperatures fell into the 50s and remained in the 50s throughout the day.
*6.86″ of rain fell in around 3 hours time on July 23rd at O’Hare Airport (Chicago, Illinois)  This makes it the wettest calendar day at O’Hare, the previous record was on September 13th, 2008 when 6.64″ of rain fell.

*Record daily minimum high temperature at International Falls, Minnesota*

High temperature on July 23rd, 2011 was 62 degrees at International Falls.  This breaks the previous record minimum high temperature of 65 degrees which was set in 1926.

Weather History:

On this date in 2004:  A record low temperature of 41 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Couple showers/thunderstorms for some areas into Monday
-Mild temperatures most of this week
-Another rain/thunderstorm threat late Tuesday-Wednesday?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Temperatures warmed up considerably compared to yesterday with partly to mostly sunny skies across our area.  Highs Today were in the 70s to low 80s with dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.  Winds were out of the west, northwest or southwest under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb ridge continues to sit to our south while a fast W-NW H5 flow covers the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.

Tonight:

A trough moving into Northwest Minnesota early This Evening will drop S-SE into Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota Overnight.  Scattered severe thunderstorms have erupted near this front This Afternoon in Northwest Minnesota and Eastern-Southern North Dakota.  A few showers and thunderstorms will probably hold together as they move into Northcentral-Northeast Minnesota Tonight, but these storms should not be severe as instability and moisture is less the farther east you go.  Locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning strikes will be the main threats from any storm Tonight, with a smaller chance for hail around 0.25″ in diameter and wind gusts to 40 mph.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s and 60s are expected Tonight with southwest or west winds under 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

A weak trough will continue to push toward the S-SE on Monday…CAPE building to around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices around -2 degrees C are expected near this front in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota.  A few showers and thunderstorms could develop Tomorrow in those areas and with around 30-50 knots of 0-6 KM and EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR in place, there is a slight chance that these storms could be severe with damaging wind and large hail as the main threats.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast on Monday with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with partly cloudy skies.  Winds during this period will be out of the southwest or north under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday looks dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with highs in the 70s and 80s, although a developing lake breeze could result in cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  A threat for showers or thunderstorms should return Tuesday Night into Wednesday as low pressure and a warm front and cold front move into the Upper Midwest.  Severe threat looks low at this time, but some heavy rainfall could occur in some portions of our area from late Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning.  Dry weather should return to the Northland Wednesday Evening into Thursday.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible Overnight.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 55 to 60.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible especially during the Morning.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77 degrees
Low:  56 degrees

Monday’s Pollen Forecast:

Grass:  Moderate
Tree:    Low
Weed:  Low

Sunrise Tomorrow:  5:40 AM CDT
Sunset Tomorrow:   8:50 PM CDT

Tim