Monthly Archives: September 2011

Issued at 4:33 PM CDT, Friday, September 30th, 2011

Rainfall report for Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.30″
Hibbing, MN:  0.26″
Ashland, WI:  0.28″
Hayward, WI:  0.47″
Bruno, MN:  0.47″
Dixon Lake, MN:  0.20″
Northome, MN:  0.26″
Cook, MN:  0.73″
Embarrass, MN:  0.55″
4 miles east of Island Lake, MN:  0.31″
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  0.37″
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  0.25″
Butternut, WI:  0.53″
Upson, WI:  1.24″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.42″
Gordon, WI:  0.20″
Sarona, WI:  0.45″
Solon Springs, WI:  0.28″
Winter, WI:  0.45″

High winds hit portions of Upper Michigan and Wisconsin on Thursday, September 29th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Marquette, MI and Green Bay, WI

Menominee, Michigan (Airport)  59 mph
Bellevue, WI:  50 mph
Green Bay, WI (Airport:  47 mph
Green Bay, WI (Lighthouse)  71 mph
Deaths Door Airport, WI (North Port)  64 mph
Sister Bay, WI:  69 mph
Chambers Island, WI:  68 mph

Widespread winds of 40-60 mph also occurred in Upper Michigan with wind speeds close to 70 mph along the South Shore in Upper Michigan.

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  Tom Skilling.  WGN TV.  Climate Prediction Center.

*NOAA buoy 50 miles east-southeast of Milwaukee, WI reported 23 foot waves earlier Today

*33% chance for Above Normal Temperatures and Precipitation for October 2011 in Duluth, Minnesota

October 2011 Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average temperature:  43.2 degrees
Average precipitation:  2.85″
Average snowfall:  2.3″

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Quiet weather pattern expected thru the middle of next week
*Warm-up commences Saturday, but more so on Sunday
*Possible rain event for late next week/next weekend?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Ridge of high pressure averaging 1022-1026mb covered the Plains and Western Ontario Province Today.  A mainly quiet day with near seasonal temperatures as the month of September comes to a close.  Highs Today were in the middle to upper 40s in the Arrowhead with 50s to around 60 degrees for the rest of us.  A few lake effect showers did occur at times Today along the South Shore of Lake Superior, mainly affecting Ashland and Iron Counties.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery.  A potent upper level trough over the Eastern Great Lakes continued to dig south-east Today.  Note:  Upper level winds on the backside of this H5 trough were as strong as 130 knots late This Afternoon in far Southeast Wisconsin per RUC model analysis.  Warmth was building backinto the Northern Rockies as an upper level ridge covered the Rockies and Western High Plains Today with widespread 80 degree temperatures from Alberta and Saskatchwan Province, south through Montana, Wyoming and the Western Dakotas.

Tonight through Saturday Night:

High pressure will move off to our south/east during this period.  Expect clear-partly cloudy skies in our area with spotty lake effect rain showers over Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin coming to an end early This Evening.  Low temperatures for Tonight will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 50s and 60s.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be variable Tonight at under 15 mph with southerly winds developing at under 20 mph for Saturday and Saturday Night.

Extended Forecast:

The period from Sunday through at least Thursday of next week looks unseasonably warm at the moment as southerly winds lock in across the Plains and Upper Midwest.  A cold front to our north for Sunday and Monday may try to sneak south and through parts of our area for next Tuesday-Wednesday, but the trend Today seems to be for this boundary to remain farther north than what the models have been showing during the past few days.  An upper level trough will dig into the Western U.S. for next week with a fairly vigorous storm lifting north into the Dakotas toward the end of next week or next weekend…This system could bring some rain to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin sometime between Friday-Sunday, October 7th-9th.  High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 60s and 70s with an 80 degree temperature not out of the question, especially on Monday.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north to northeast under 12 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 52 to 57.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south around 12 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59 degrees
Low:  40 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:49 PM CDT

Tim

Issued at 4:12 PM CDT, Thursday, September 29th, 2011

High temperature report for Wednesday, September 28th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  75 degrees
International Falls, MN:  82 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  82 degrees
Orr, MN:  81 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  82 degrees
Pine River, MN:  81 degrees
Cass Lake, MN:  84 degrees
Northome, MN:  80 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  81 degrees

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  NOAA.  Paul Douglas (St. Cloud Times)

*Record wettest September at Baltimore, Maryland.  12.80″ of rain has fallen so far this month beating the previous record of 12.41″ which was set in 1934.

*Record wettest September at Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.  9.64″ of rain has fallen so far this month beating the previous record of 6.63″.

*Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has had it’s wettest September on record and the wettest year on record.  Almost 60″ of precipitation has fallen so far in 2011 which breaks the previous record wettest year of 59″ set in 1972.

*100 days so far this summer above 100 degrees at San Angelo, Texas.

*Average September temperature so far at Houston, Texas is 82.8 degrees which makes this the 3rd warmest September on record.

Temperatures on Wednesday Afternoon were warmer in parts of Minnesota compared to the SE U.S.

Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times

Roseau, MN:  82 degrees/Miami, FL:  80 degrees
Hallock, MN:  82 degrees/Birmingham, AL:  81 degrees
Detroit Lakes, MN:  81 degrees/Mobile, AL:  72 degrees
Moorhead, MN:  82 degrees/Montegomery, AL:  73 degrees

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Areas of rain ending This Evening
-Lake effect shower threat for the South Shore of Lake Superior late Tonight/Friday
-Gusty winds to continue Tonight
-Cool temperatures into Friday Night
-Moderating temperatures for the weekend

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Strong low pressure of 996mb was located near Maquette, Michigan late This Afternoon.  Widespread rain has been occurring Today across Northwest Wisconsin while some rain affected Northern-Eastern Minnesota mainly before Noon Today.  High temperatures in Northern Minnesota Today are running about 20 degrees colder compared to yesterday.  Temperatures This Afternoon were in the 50s and 60s across our area with the coolest temps covering the Hayward Lakes, Ashland and Hurley areas where temperatures were only around 50 degrees late This Afternoon.  Skies were overcast Today in Northwest Wisconsin with partly to mostly cloudy skies covering Northern Minnesota.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful Autumn storm was moving south/east across the Great Lakes Today.  RUC model analysis places a 120 knot upper level jet streak in Eastern Iowa and Western Illinois late This Afternoon while 120-210 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls covered much of the Upper Midwest, Central-Northern Great Lakes Today.

Tonight:

*Wind Advisory* remains in effect until 7PM CDT This Evening for Cook, Lake, Central-Southern St. Louis, Southern Itasca, Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, Pine and Carlton Counties in Minnesota.  And for Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in Wisconsin. 

A strong area of low pressure will reach the Eastern Great Lakes by dawn.  Some rain will continue before 7PM CDT This Evening in Northwest Wisconsin, especially east of a line from Hayward to Ashland.  Spotty showers could also affect portions of Northern Minnesota early Tonight.  Majority of the area should be dry Overnight, although some lake effect rain showers could start to develop in Ashland and Iron Counties Wisconsin.  Lows Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with north or northwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 40 mph during the Evening.

Friday and Friday Night:

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest during this period.  Looks dry for all but the South Shore of Lake Superior on Friday…The area from Ashland to Hurley will see some lake effect rain showers on Friday with dry weather returning to these areas by Friday Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tomorrow with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Skies will be clear to partly cloudy Tomorrow Night with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or east at up to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

High pressure heads off to our east during the weekend with a southwest wind and milder temperatures returning to the Upper Midwest.  Warmest day looks to be on Sunday when high temperatures reach the 60s and 70s in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Saturday’s highs will be in the 50s and 60s.  Low temperatures Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 40s with some 30s possible especially Saturday Night.

Next week’s forecast is a bit tricky especially in terms of temperatures.  Looks like a cold front will slip south out of Central Canada while a strong 1030+ mb high passes by to our north-east around the middle of next week.  There are differences showing up in the computer models as to how far south the cold front will get for the early-mid part of next week and this will have an impact on high temperatures, especially for areas near Lake Superior.  Should the front stay farther north, then a southerly flow and above average high temperatures would continue most of next week.  However, if the front pushes more to the south, then easterly winds off Lake Superior would result in near average temperatures.  Doesn’t look like will see much in the way of rainfall until perhaps late next week or next weekend, October 7th-9th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

*WIND ADVISORY* in effect until 7PM CDT This Evening

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Light rain showers possible at times mainly early.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph during the Evening.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northeast around 12 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59 degrees
Low:  41 degrees

Friday’s Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  None
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Friday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:51 PM CDT

Tim

Issued at 4:24 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 27th, 2011

Weather Tidbits:

*58.44″ of precipitation has fallen so far this year at Central Park in New York City.  This is the 9th wettest year on record.  Note:  Records date back to 1869.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)

*High temperature at Chicago, Illinois (O’Hare) has failed to reach 65 degrees for 6 days in a row.  This has never happened before during the month of September.  Weather records for O’Hare date back to 1959. (Tom Skilling. WGN TV)

Quite a contrast in low temperatures over the Northland This Morning
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  33 degrees/Duluth, MN:  56 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  39 degrees/Grand Marais, MN:  57 degrees
Ely, MN:  37 degrees/Silver Bay, MN:  57 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  29 degrees/Ashland, WI:  56 degrees

Rainfall report for Tuesday, September 27th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Ashland, WI:  0.18″
Hayward, WI:  0.16″
3 miles south of Ashland, WI:  0.23″
Butternut, WI:  0.15″
Park Falls, WI:  0.16″
Upson, WI:  0.35″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.25″

Weather History:

On this date in 1987:  A record high temperature of 83 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1991:  A record low temperature of 27 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

-Scattered showers linger Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin
-Mild Wednesday ahead
-Gusty winds Wednesday Night thru Thursday Evening
-Cooler temperatures return for Thursday-Saturday
-Pattern shift next week?

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure of 1008mb was located near Chicago, Illinois late This Afternoon.  Rain associated with this low continued to affect portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today, mainly east of a line from Webster to Bayfield.  High temperatures due to the clouds and areas of rain in Northwest Wisconsin were in the middle 50s to lower 60s.  Partly cloudy to sunny skies prevailed in Northern Minnesota with warm temperatures for late September…Highs ranged from the middle 60s around the head of Lake Superior to the 70s from the Brainerd Lakes to Iron Range and Arrowhead regions, a few locales even came close to reaching 80 degrees This Afternoon in Northern Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the west, north or east under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low was centered over Southern Lake Michigan late Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  NE upper level flow continued in the Upper Midwest Today on the backside of this system.

Tonight:

Surface and upper level low will continue sit and spin near Chicago, Illinois.  Areas of rain showers will persist during the Evening in Northwest Wisconsin, then dry weather should return to these areas Overnight.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue in Northwest Wisconsin with clear to partly cloudy skies for Northern Minnesota.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the west, north or east under 15 mph.  Note:  Patchy fog could develop late Tonight, any fog that does form will burn off between 7-9AM Wednesday.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

Low pressure will finally pull slightly more to the northeast during this period thanks to an approaching cold front which is forecasted to move southeast across Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Night.  Warm air will be found ahead of this front as 850mb temperatures climb to +12 to +18 degrees C on Wednesday, this should lead to high temperatures reaching the 70s and lower 80s in Northern Minnesota with 60s and 70s for Northwestern Wisconsin.  Lows Wednesday Night will be 40s and 50s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the southwest, north or east under 15 mph.  Winds will increase Tomorrow Night as they become northwest at 10-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph late in the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected during this period with the potential for a few showers by Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast:

A potent upper level trough and area of low pressure will dig south/east into the Great Lakes on Thursday before moving off to our east Thursday Night and Friday.  Gusty northwest winds will continue on Thursday with wind speeds of 15-35 mph, cold air advection will be occurring as well with 850mb temperatures falling to zero to +4 degrees C.  Even colder air arrives by Friday with 850mb temperatures forecasted to drop to zero to -4 degrees C.  Expect some rain showers for Thursday with mainly dry weather from Thursday Night into Friday Night as high pressure settles into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Friday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Long range model guidance is showing a pattern change for next week with a SW 500mb flow developing across the Plains.  This with time could lead to wetter weather for portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, in fact there might even be some early October thunderstorms at some point next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  Warm for the time of year.  High 73 to 78.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Becoming breezy.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible late.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday…  Breezy and cooler.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

.Friday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  60 degrees
Low:  42 degrees

Wednesday’s Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Tree:    None
Grass:  None

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:55 PM CDT

Tim

Issued at 3:50 PM CDT, Monday, September 26th, 2011

Low temperature report for Monday, September 26th, 2011
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  31 degrees
Ely, MN:  32 degrees
Orr, MN:  32 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  30 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  30 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  28 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  31 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  28 degrees
2 miles south of Tower, MN:  32 degrees

*Pagami Creek Fire Update*
Source:  Incident Information System

As of earlier Today, the fire was 53% contained with the size at 93,469 acres.

WEATHER HEADLINES:

*Upper low lingers over the Southern Great Lakes thru mid-week
*Rain showers possible at times for Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota Tonight-Tuesday
*Northern Minnesota stays dry thru Wednesday
*Cooler temperatures return late this week behind a rather strong cold front

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Today’s Weather:

Low pressure averaging 1000mb was located in Northwest Illinois late Today with a ridge of high pressure averaging 1018mb extending from Southern Ontario to Western Quebec Province.  Rain associated with the system to our southeast has been moving west through Northern, Central and Western Wisconsin and Southeast Minnesota Today with some light rain even reaching as far west as Price, Iron and Sawyer Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Sky conditions Today ranged from sunny in Northern Minnesota to overcast in Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures ranged from the middle 60s to lower 70s in Northern Minnesota to the middle 50s to lower 60s from Downtown Duluth through Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 10-15 mph with higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low has moved from the Dakotas on September 20th to Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin on September 26th per RUC model analysis.  This system has been moving very slowly due to it being away from the main jet stream which has been located well to the north during the past week.  NE upper level flow continued across the Upper Midwest Today while an upper level ridge covered the Central-Southern Rockies per RUC model analysis.

Tonight:

Clear to partly cloudy skies should continue in Northern Minnesota while skies become mostly cloudy in Northeast-Eastern Minnesota and stay mostly cloudy across Northwest Wisconsin.  Low pressure to our southeast will spread some showers into Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, and some of these showers could work there way into Eastern and Northeast Minnesota late Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Low pressure system remains nearly stationary to our southeast during this period.  Mostly cloudy skies with some showers are expected on Tuesday in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in Eastern-Northeast Minnesota.  Partly cloudy skies will occur in Northern Minnesota Tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies elsewhere.  Highs will be in the 70s in Northcentral Minnesota with 50s and 60s for the rest of us.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Tuesday Night with a slight chance for lingering showers in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or east under 20 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals from Tonight into Tuesday Night will range from 0.10-0.25″ in Northwest Wisconsin with some 1/2″ totals possible from Hurley to Butternut down through Park Falls and Ogema.  Rainfall totals should be <0.10" for far Eastern and Northeast Minnesota.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move southeast across our area from late Wednesday into early Thursday.  This front will finally cause the pesky upper level system in Illinois to move east by mid to late week.  Wednesday looks mainly dry in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s, in fact a few locations in Northcentral Minnesota could reach the lower 80s on Wednesday.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Colder temperatures will move in for Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes.  High temperatures on Thursday will mainly be in the 50s to lower 60s with Friday’s high temperatures probably not getting out of the 50s with some 40s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  The risk for showers does exist from Wednesday Night into early Friday as that cold front and upper level trough pass through the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph especially This Evening.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 61 to 66.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.

.Wednesday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 58 to 63.  Chance of rain 30%.  Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 30 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61 degrees
Low:  42 degrees

Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:

Weed:  Low
Grass:  None
Tree:    None

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:02 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:57 PM CDT

Tim