Weather Report for Monday, October 31st, 2011. Generally dry, but a few sprinkles/light rain showers can’t be ruled out late Tonight/Tuesday AM. Light rain potential for Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday PM-Wednesday. Storm still expected this weekend, but it looks to pass west of us, meaning we stay on the "warm side" while signifcant snow targets portions of North and South Dakota.

Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Monday, October 31st, 2011

It’s been a dry fall so far in much of Minnesota.

First number represents the total amount of precipitation since September 1st.  The second number represents the departure from average.

Duluth, MN (Airport location)  2.60″/-4.29″
International Falls, MN:  2.73″/-2.29″
Twin Cities, MN:  1.06″/-4.39″
St. Cloud, MN:  2.17″/-3.72″

Note:  October 2011 will be the 4th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

Month by month temperature departures in Duluth, MN for 2011:

January:  -1.3 degrees.
February:  -0.3 degrees.
March:  -1.4 degrees
April:  +0.1 degrees.
May:  -2.1 degrees.
June:  -1.9 degrees.
July:  +4.3 degrees.
August:  +2.5 degrees.
September:  +0.6 degrees.
October:  Should end about +5.0 above average.

Updated climate outlook for November 2011.
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

For Duluth, Minnesota:

40% chance for above average temperatures.  Equal chance for above, below or normal precipitation.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1014mb was over Central Lake Superior late This Afternoon.  In wake of this low skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy in our area Today with near to slightly above average temperatures as we close out the month of October.  Highs Today were in the 40s to around 50 degrees with winds out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough/low over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes was moving rather quickly off toward the east per water vapor satellite imagery.  In wake of this low was a zonal flow which was in place across the Northern U.S. with a nice area of warm air covering the Northern and Central Plains Today.  Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from +10 to +18 degrees C in these areas with widespread 60 to 70 degree temperatures This Afternoon from North Dakota to Texas.  A few spots in Southwest Minnesota even made it to 60 degrees Today, they include Canby and Pipestone…61 and 63 degrees respectively.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A cold front currently over the Central Dakotas will move east and will move through Northern Minnesota Overnight.  A 30-40 knot southwest low level jet will develop ahead of this front Tonight with warm air advection occurring as well.  Some rain showers could develop after Midnight in parts of our area, any rain that does fall should be very light.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are expected Tonight with south or southwest winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

Cold front will move southeast and should exit Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and will move through Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Afternoon/Evening.  Some light rain should develop at times in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in Eastern Minnesota during this period with dry conditions for Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night generally in the 30s.  Winds during this period will be out of the southwest, north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Some light rain could affect the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, Phillips and Hurley areas in Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with dry weather elsewhere.  A cold front will drop south through Wisconsin on Wednesday while a wave of low pressure heads NE along this boundary from Wednesday to Thursday, the more significant precipitation associated with that low will remain south of our local area for mid-week.  Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s with some teens possible in the traditional cold spots.  Thursday and Friday is looking dry at this time with highs on Thursday generally in the 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.

Update on this weekend’s storm threat:

Model runs from Today continue to show a fairly potent low moving into Colorado on Friday and to the Eastern Dakotas or Western Minnesota over the weekend.  Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be on the warm side of this storm, as a result the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain for Saturday and Saturday Night, then as low pressure moves north of our area on Sunday, cold advection will move in from the southwest and that’s when we could see the change over from rain to snow showers/flurries take place in the Northland.  Right now it does not look like will see much if any accumulating snow out of this storm, and rainfall amounts look fairly light at this time as well, since much of our area looks to get dry slotted based on latest model data. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Light Showers or sprinkles possible after Midnight.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday…  Variable cloudiness.  Light Showers or sprinkles possible early.  High 50 to 55.  Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 22 to 27.

.Thursday…  Mostly sunny.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  44 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   5:53 PM CDT

Tim

10/30/11: Sunday’s Weather Report. Patchy drizzle for parts of the Northland Tonight. Halloween Day and Night looks dry, a touch on the cool side by trick or treat time. Light rain potential Tuesday PM-Wednesday? Possible storm Nov. 5th-6th?

Issued at 6:59 PM CDT, Sunday, October 30th, 2011

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A clipper type system has been pushing south/east through the Upper Midwest Today.  Some light rain and drizzle affected parts of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota, but rainfall totals were extremely light, generally a few hundreths of an inch at most.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy with highs mainly in the 40s with a few spots in the low 50s.  Winds were out of the west, east or north at 5 to 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb low/trough continued to move southeast across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes early This Evening per water vapor satellite imagery.  Greatest 500mb height falls (60 meters/12 hours) associated with this low have pushed into Northwestern Illinois per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Wisconsin.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected in our area behind this low with patchy drizzle or light rain possible in Northwest Wisconsin, and maybe along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 30s with east, north or west winds under 15 mph.

Halloween Day and Night:

Low pressure weakens to our east on Monday with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies found in our area.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Monday Night with lows in the 30s to low 40s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south or southwest under 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move southeast across our area from Tuesday into early Wednesday.  Some light rain could develop Tuesday Afternoon into Wednesday Morning as this front comes through, this does not look like a big precipitation maker for our area though.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Dry weather should return to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night, highs will be in the 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.

Long range model runs from Today continue to show a low pressure system lifting N-NE out of the Rockies or Central Plains next weekend (November 5th-6th)  The exact track, intensity and timing of this storm is still uncertain since it is still several days away.  Based on the current storm track, it appears that most of Northern-Eastern Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin would see mainly rain with this storm for next weekend with rain turning to snow sometime Saturday Night or Sunday, mainly west of a line from International Falls to Aitkin with a change over to some flurries for the remainder of our area for late next weekend.

Storm track forecast for next Saturday-Sunday.

12z GFS from Today:  Low pressure moves from Southwest Kansas to Northeast Minnesota.
12z ECM from Today:  Low pressure moves from Northeast Colorado to Eastern North Dakota.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northeast to north at 5 to 15 mph.

.HALLOWEEN…  Variable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday…  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  44 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   5:55 PM CDT

Tim

Weather Report for Saturday, October 29th, 2011: Clouds on the increase Tonight leading to some light rain for Sunday. Halloween still looks dry, just a tad cool for the little ones.

Issued at 3:57 PM CDT, Saturday, October 29th, 2011

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another chilly Morning with low temperatures ranging from 17 degrees at International Falls.  19 degrees at Hibbing, Bigfork and Pine River.  20 degrees at Hayward and Winter.  Bruno bottomed out at 22 degrees while the Duluth Airport and Superior had a low of 25 degrees.  A stubborn area of low clouds along with some fog (freezing fog in some spots) affected Northern portions of Koochiching, St. Louis, Lake and Cook Counties Minnesota This Morning and early This Afternoon.  This area of low clouds pushed north into Ontario Province by mid to late Afternoon.  Skies outside of far Northern Minnesota were sunny to partly cloudy Today with near to slightly above average temperatures for the end of October.  Highs ranged from the upper 30s in the International Falls, Crane Lake and Ely, Minnesota areas with upper 40s to lower 50s common elsewhere.  Winds were calm or from the south at 5 to around 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow continues across the Upper Midwest with Friday’s pocket of cold air aloft, upper level low/trough passing through the Central-Eastern Great Lakes and Eastern Canada Today per water vapor satellite imagery.  The next system taking aim at the Upper Midwest was over the Manitoba Lakes and the Dakotas This Afternoon.  This system has an area of 90 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls associated with it per RUC model analysis, but as is often the case with storms coming out of Western Canada it lacks moisture.

Tonight:

Increasing cloudiness will take place across our area with some light rain possibly developing Overnight mainly in Western-Southern areas.  The Arrowhead, far Northern Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin should stay dry Tonight.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with winds becoming east at under 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure will pass west-south of the Northland on Sunday, this low will exit to our east for Sunday Night.  Looks somewhat unsettled on Sunday with some light rain affecting Northwest Wisconsin and Eastcentral Minnesota with a slight chance of rain for the Arrowhead, Iron Range and far Northern Minnesota.  850mb temperatures of zero to around -2 degrees C combined with wet bulb temperatures remaining above zero degrees C should keep the bulk of this precipitation on Sunday in the form of rain, but higher elevated areas, inland from Lake Superior could see some wet snow mix in with the rain, especially during the Morning hours…Little if any snow accumulation is expected though at this time.  Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with highs in the 30s and 40s with east or north winds at 5 to around 20 mph.  Light rain could linger into Sunday Evening in Northwest Wisconsin with dry weather returning to that area late Sunday Night.  Northern-Eastern Minnesota should be dry Sunday Night.  Low temperatures are forecasted to be in the 20s and 30s with north or east winds under 15 mph.

Note:  Rainfall totals from late Tonight through Sunday Afternoon for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should range from 0.05-0.20″.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Monday and Monday Night, highs will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows mainly in the 30s.  A cold front will drop southeast and through our area for Tuesday-early Wednesday, some light rain could develop as this front comes through, but right now this doesn’t look like a big rain producer.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 30s.  Mid to late week looks pretty tranquil at the moment. 

Next weekend (November 5th-7th) could feature a storm coming out of the Rockies or Plains per Today’s GFS and EUROPEAN model runs, right now the track of this potential storm is forecasted to be west of Minnesota, as a result it looks like it would be a rain maker for Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with the snow confined to the Dakotas and possibly Westcentral Minnesota.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming east around 12 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain at times.  The rain could mix with snow during the Morning inland from Lake Superior.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation 60%.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy early.  Some clearing late.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.HALLOWEEN…  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday…  Variable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  45 degrees
Low:  30 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:47 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   5:56 PM CDT

Tim

Weather Report for Friday, October 28th, 2011. Spotty Evening showers, flakes/ice pellets. Dry Saturday. Light rain west-south Saturday Night-Sunday. Halloween looks dry with near average temps.

Issued at 4:25 PM CDT, Friday, October 28th, 2011

A couple snowfall reports from Thursday, October 27th, 2011.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  1.0″
Butternut, WI:  1.0″
Finland, MN:  0.1″

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A chilly start to the day with widespread 20s and even some teens in our area, some of the colder lows This Morning include:  Hayward, WI:  21 degrees.  Silver Bay, MN:  19 degrees.  Grand Marais, MN:  19 degrees.  Superior, WI:  21 degrees.  Embarrass, MN:  16 degrees.  An area of low pressure was centered to our north This Afternoon with a trough attached to this low passing through the Northland This Morning and early This Afternoon.  This system brought a few showers to our area Today with some snow and sleet mixed in with the rain in some spots.  The precipitation associated with this frontal boundary exited to our east by early Afternoon, then we saw some instability showers develop during the Afternoon due to cold air aloft (-34 degree C 500mb temps) and some milder temps at the surface, this combined with steep lapse rates approaching 9.0 c/km, CAPE around 200 j/kg and Lifted Indices close to zero degrees C resulted in these popcorn type showers that developed in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Afternoon.  High temperatures Today were in the middle 40s to lower 50s south of Highway 2 and in the mid 30s to low 40s in Northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead.  Winds Today were out of the northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with an upper level low churning southeast out of Southern Ontario Province per water vapor satellite imagery.  This system is associated with 30-60 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls Today across the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Surface and upper level low will remain to our north/east.  Scattered showers of rain, snow and sleet will taper off This Evening.  A few spots up north could pick up a light dusting of snow in the most vigorous showers during the Evening.  Looks dry Overnight with skies becoming partly cloudy.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with some teens possible in the traditional cold spots.  Winds will be out of the northwest or west under 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night:

Dry weather is forecasted Tomorrow with partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Temps will be close to average with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the south or west under 15 mph.  Clouds will be on the increase Saturday Night as low pressure heads toward the Northern Plains.  Some light rain or mixed rain and snow could move into Western-Southwest parts of our area, including the Cass Lake, Walker, Brainerd and Aitkin areas.  Low temperatures Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with winds becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Low pressure will pass south/east of our area from Sunday into early Monday.  Some light rain is possible on Sunday for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, some of the rain could mix with snow especially early in the day.  Most if not all of the precipitation on Sunday is expected to remain south of Highway 2 based on lasted model projections.  Dry weather returns to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday Night into Monday Night.  Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Highs for Halloween will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 30s.

Not much going on for next week…Cold front will push southeast across the Upper Midwest during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, any meaningful rainfall should remain south of our area near the deeper moisture and near a possible low pressure wave that may form and move along this front.  Could be a system for next weekend (November 4th-7th) time frame, but there is considerable spread on the track, timing and intensity of this potential low per long range computer models.

Note:  Rainfall totals in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin are expected to remain under 0.10″ for Saturday Night and Sunday with little or no accumulation of snow expected at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Spotty showers before 7PM.  Variable clouds This Evening.  Mostly clear Overnight.  Low 26 to 31.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Increasing cloudiness.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  High 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.HALLOWEEN…  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Sunrise Saturday:  7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   5:58 PM CDT

Tim

Weather Report for Thursday, October 27th, 2011. More snow/rain showers arrive late Tonight and linger into Friday. Dry Saturday ahead. Halloween looks pretty good at the moment.

Issued at 4:14 PM CDT, Thursday, October 27th, 2011

*Minnesota drought update as of October 25th, 2011*
Source:  Climate Prediction Center.

80% of Minnesota is abnormally dry.
32% of Minnesota is under moderate drought conditions.
17% of Minnesota is under severe drought conditions.

October 2011 climate check for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Average monthly temperature thru the 26th:  50.2 degrees
Departure from average:  +6.0 degrees

Monthly precipitation total thru the 26th:  1.02″
Departure from average:  -1.45″

Weather History:

On this date last year, 4.3″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota (on top of the hill)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A changeable day across the area with a mixture of clouds and sun with spotty showers of rain, sleet and snow.  A pool of cold air aloft with temperatures at 18,000 feet running from -28 to -34 degrees C combined with some “warming” near the surface made the atmosphere quite unstable once again Today and this led to the development of these popcorn type showers that we saw Today.  Precipitation totals have been light, generally under one tenth of an inch with some locations picking up a quick quarter to one inch of snow, especially earlier in the day when the surface temperature was colder.  High temperatures Today were generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s with some middle 30s in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the west or north under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Zonal flow covered the Northern U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery with a powerhouse 120-140 knot jet stream covering the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. per RUC model analysis.  The most active weather Today occurred in the Southern U.S. into the Northeast U.S. where some snow has been falling in North Texas and also in portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Pop-up showers of rain, sleet and snow will end between 7-9pm This Evening.  The next disturbance embedded in this zonal flow will move into Northcentral Minnesota late Tonight and bring with it some snow or mixed snow and rain showers.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with winds turning to the south or west under 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night:

Low pressure will pass north of our area with a cold front attached to this low passing through the Upper Midwest on Friday.  Scattered showers of snow and rain will be found in our area on Friday with the potential for a dusting to one inch of snow accumulation in some locations, mainly Tomorrow Morning.  Highs on Friday with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies will be in the 40s with some 30s possible in Northern areas.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  It looks dry Tomorrow Night with skies becoming partly cloudy.  Winds during this period will shift from the southwest to the west-northwest with wind speeds generally less than 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Saturday with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.  Saturday Night through Sunday Evening will feature an area of low pressure passing west-south of Northern Minnesota, this system won’t be able to tap into very much moisture, but there should be enough moisture to generate some areas of light rain or a rain/snow mix for late Saturday Night and Sunday mainly affecting Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin based on latest model data.  Low temperatures Saturday Night will mainly be in the 30s with highs on Sunday in the 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Early next week looks dry at this time with near to slightly above average temperatures expected.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Spotty rain, sleet or snow showers before 7PM.  Rain or snow showers re-developing after 4AM.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Variable cloudiness.  Snow or rain showers possible during the Morning.  Rain showers possible during the Afternoon.  High 41 to 46.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of precipitation 40% early and 30% in the Afternoon.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46 degrees
Low:  31 degrees

Sunrise Friday:  7:45 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:00 PM CDT

Tim