Issued at 3:49 PM CDT, Monday, October 31st, 2011
It’s been a dry fall so far in much of Minnesota.
First number represents the total amount of precipitation since September 1st. The second number represents the departure from average.
Duluth, MN (Airport location) 2.60″/-4.29″
International Falls, MN: 2.73″/-2.29″
Twin Cities, MN: 1.06″/-4.39″
St. Cloud, MN: 2.17″/-3.72″
Note: October 2011 will be the 4th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.
Month by month temperature departures in Duluth, MN for 2011:
January: -1.3 degrees.
February: -0.3 degrees.
March: -1.4 degrees
April: +0.1 degrees.
May: -2.1 degrees.
June: -1.9 degrees.
July: +4.3 degrees.
August: +2.5 degrees.
September: +0.6 degrees.
October: Should end about +5.0 above average.
Updated climate outlook for November 2011.
Source: Climate Prediction Center.
For Duluth, Minnesota:
40% chance for above average temperatures. Equal chance for above, below or normal precipitation.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Low pressure of 1014mb was over Central Lake Superior late This Afternoon. In wake of this low skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy in our area Today with near to slightly above average temperatures as we close out the month of October. Highs Today were in the 40s to around 50 degrees with winds out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
500mb trough/low over the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes was moving rather quickly off toward the east per water vapor satellite imagery. In wake of this low was a zonal flow which was in place across the Northern U.S. with a nice area of warm air covering the Northern and Central Plains Today. Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from +10 to +18 degrees C in these areas with widespread 60 to 70 degree temperatures This Afternoon from North Dakota to Texas. A few spots in Southwest Minnesota even made it to 60 degrees Today, they include Canby and Pipestone…61 and 63 degrees respectively.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cold front currently over the Central Dakotas will move east and will move through Northern Minnesota Overnight. A 30-40 knot southwest low level jet will develop ahead of this front Tonight with warm air advection occurring as well. Some rain showers could develop after Midnight in parts of our area, any rain that does fall should be very light. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s and 40s are expected Tonight with south or southwest winds up to 20 mph.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night:
Cold front will move southeast and should exit Eastern Minnesota Tomorrow Morning and will move through Northwest Wisconsin Tuesday Afternoon/Evening. Some light rain should develop at times in Northwest Wisconsin and possibly in Eastern Minnesota during this period with dry conditions for Northern Minnesota. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night generally in the 30s. Winds during this period will be out of the southwest, north or west at 10 to 20 mph.
Some light rain could affect the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, Phillips and Hurley areas in Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday with dry weather elsewhere. A cold front will drop south through Wisconsin on Wednesday while a wave of low pressure heads NE along this boundary from Wednesday to Thursday, the more significant precipitation associated with that low will remain south of our local area for mid-week. Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 20s with some teens possible in the traditional cold spots. Thursday and Friday is looking dry at this time with highs on Thursday generally in the 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s and 30s.
Update on this weekend’s storm threat:
Model runs from Today continue to show a fairly potent low moving into Colorado on Friday and to the Eastern Dakotas or Western Minnesota over the weekend. Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will be on the warm side of this storm, as a result the bulk of the precipitation will fall as rain for Saturday and Saturday Night, then as low pressure moves north of our area on Sunday, cold advection will move in from the southwest and that’s when we could see the change over from rain to snow showers/flurries take place in the Northland. Right now it does not look like will see much if any accumulating snow out of this storm, and rainfall amounts look fairly light at this time as well, since much of our area looks to get dry slotted based on latest model data.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Light Showers or sprinkles possible after Midnight. Low 35 to 40. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Tuesday… Variable cloudiness. Light Showers or sprinkles possible early. High 50 to 55. Wind southwest, becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 40 to 45.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly clear. Low 22 to 27.
.Thursday… Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45.
.Thursday Night… Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 44 degrees
Low: 30 degrees
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 5:53 PM CDT