Monthly Archives: November 2011

Issued at 5:01 PM CST, Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

• Minor snow event Tonight
• Sunshine returns Thursday and Friday
• Multiple shots of arctic air possible next week

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front sagged south/east through Northern Minnesota Today.  As of late This Afternoon the cold front has moved into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Light snow did develop during the Afternoon hours across portions of Northern-Eastern Minnesota with accumulations generally of a half inch or less.  High temperatures Today were in the lower to middle 30s which is slightly above average as we close out the month of November.  Winds Today were out of the southwest or north under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Westerly flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  500mb trough was digging S/SE through the Rockies with an area of 120-180 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls extending from Eastern California to Southern Wyoming per RUC model analysis.  A rather tight temperature gradient was found across the Upper Midwest This Afternoon with 850mb temperatures ranging from -6 degrees C in Northwest Minnesota to zero degrees C in Central Minnesota to +4 degrees C in Southern Minnesota, this tight temperature gradient is helping to generate our snowfall Tonight.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A cold front will exit Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  Areas of light snow and flurries will continue most of the night.  Note:  Patchy light freezing drizzle is also possible mainly early This Evening.  A considerable amount of cloudcover will be found in our area with lows in the teens and 20s with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at up to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries are possible on Thursday along the South Shore of Lake Superior, snow accumulations of around an inch are possible for Northern Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin.  Dry weather will return to these areas by Thursday Night while the remainder of our area will be mainly dry after some Morning flurries.  Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens with some locations in Northern Minnesota possibly dropping a few degrees below zero.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph on Thursday and from the west or southwest under 15 mph Thursday Night.

Note:  Total snowfall accumulations by Thursday will range from 1-2″ in Northwest Wisconsin and Northeast-Eastcentral Minnesota with locally heavier amounts of 3-4″ possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast:

A cold front will move E-SE across the Upper Midwest on Saturday with one low passing by to our northwest and another one heading northeast from the Southern Plains.  Some snow showers and flurries are possible in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Saturday into early Sunday, but accumulations if any look very light.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Saturday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs for Sunday will be in the 20s with lows Sunday Night in the teens.  A clipper type low is forecasted to move into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week, this system could bring another minor snow event to our area sometime between Sunday Night-Monday the way it looks now.

Two brief shots of arctic air are possible for early next week behind that clipper system with another surge of arctic air possible for late next week, around December 9th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Light snow and flurries…Patchy light freezing drizzle also possible early.  Total snowfall accumulations 1-2″.  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind north around 12 mph.

.Thursday…  Flurries possible early.  Becoming partly cloudy.  High 23 to 28.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.  Wind west around 12 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.

.Saturday Night…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 15 to 20.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  27 degrees
Low:  14 degrees

Sunrise Thursday:  7:32 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

Issued at 4:59 PM CST, Tuesday, November 29th, 2011

• Chilly/quiet Tonight
• Minor snow event still expected late Wednesday-Thursday
• Brief arctic air intrusion possible early next week

Low temperature report for Tuesday, November 29th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0 degrees
Crane Lake, MN:  1 degree
Bigfork, MN:  7 degrees
Ely, MN:  7 degrees
Orr, MN:  7 degrees
Embarrass, MN:  4 degrees
Kabetogama, MN:  4 degrees
3 miles east of Orr, MN:  4 degrees

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge of 1026mb stretched from the Western High Plains to the Upper Midwest.  Sunshine was in abundance across our area Today with high temperatures mainly in the lower to middle 30s.  Winds were out of the southwest or north-northwest under 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Potent storm system was moving north into the Ohio Valley per water vapor satellite imagery.  Widespread very strong 12 hour 500mb height falls of 120-240 meters covered the Ohio Valley, Southern Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic per RUC model analysis.  Northwest flow aloft was in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a seasonably chilly airmass in the Upper Midwest with early Evening 850mb temperatures of -2 to -4 degrees C while an area of warmer air +2 to +6 degree C 850mb temperatures covered the Dakotas late Today per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

High pressure from the Plains to Upper Midwest will keep us quiet under mostly clear skies.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s, but single digits are likely in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be variable or southwesterly around 10 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night:

A cold front will move southeast across our area from Wednesday into Wednesday Evening while a wave of low pressure moves up along this boundary.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday with highs in the 20s and 30s.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecasted Wednesday Night with lows in the teens and 20s.

Light snow and flurries should develop Wednesday Afternoon/Evening across our area with some snow lingering through the Overnight hours, especially from Eastern Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.

Extended Forecast:

Weak area of low pressure exits to our east Thursday Morning.  Snow showers and flurries are possible on Thursday, especially along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s.  Thursday Night looks rather chilly with low temperatures in the single digits and teens with some spots up North likely falling a couple degrees below zero.  Highs will rebound into the 20s and 30s on Friday with lows Friday Night in the teens and 20s.  Looks dry across our area from Thursday Night into Friday Night.

Note:  Snowfall accumulations from Wednesday Evening into Thursday will generally be around 1″ with some locales picking up around 2″ of snow.  Northern Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties in Northwest Wisconsin could see 2-5″ of snow.

Looks like we could have a brief bout of arctic air early next week (December 5th-6th time frame) High temps could hold in the single digits and teens across our area while lows drop below zero or close to it. 

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 31 to 36.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Light snow.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of snow 60%.

.Thursday…  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2″.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 40%.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Saturday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28 degrees
Low:  14 degrees

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Issued at 4:20 PM CST, Monday, November 28th, 2011

• Wind shift with slightly cooler temperatures for Tonight and Tuesday
• Minor snow system still possible for mid-week
• No arctic airmasses in sight

Snow depth as of 6 AM CST, November 28th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota.

International Falls, MN:  4.0″
Kabetogama, MN:  4.0″
Northome, MN:  1.0″
Embarrass, MN:  1.0″
Upson, WI:  1.0″
Duluth, MN (NWS)  Trace

Weather Tidbits:

*9.4% of the U.S. is currently covered by snow which is down from 33.6% this time last year (NOHRSC)

Snow drought for Duluth, Minnesota while International Falls has had near average snow totals so far this month.

Duluth, Minnesota:

Month to date snowfall total:  2.4″
Departure from average:  -9.6″

Seasonal snowfall total:  2.4″
Departure from average:  -12.0″

International Falls, Minnesota:

Month to date snowfall total:  12.3″
Departure from average:  +0.4″

Seasonal snowfall total:  12.3″
Departure from average:  -1.9″

Both Duluth and International Falls had much more snow at this time last year compared to this year.

Duluth, Minnesota:

November 2010 snowfall total (thru the 27th)  19.6″
Seasonal snowfall total thru November 27th:  27.3″

International Falls, Minnesota:

November 2010 snowfall total (thru the 27th)  23.5″
Seasonal snowfall total thru November 27th:  23.7″

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front was moving into Central Minnesota late This Afternoon.  Clouds earlier in the day gave way to occasional sunshine during the Afternoon.  High temperatures were in the 30s to lower 40s with winds out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Powerful upper level low with 150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls per RUC model analysis covered Mississippi and Alabama early This Evening with a pocket of -2 to -6 degree C 850mb temperatures in place underneath this H5 low across parts of the Southeast U.S.  Note:  Record to near record warmth occurred in the Mid-Atlantic Today with highs in the 60s, versus the 30s and 40s over parts of the Southeast U.S.  W-NW upper level flow was in place across the Upper Midwest with a 500mb trough along with it’s 60-150 meter 12 hour 500mb height falls heading E-SE across Central Canada, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -8 degrees C in Central Manitoba Province to -2 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to +6 degrees C in Southern Minnesota per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

A cold front will move off to our south/east This Evening.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are on tap with lows in the teens and 20s with a few single digits possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Might be a few lake effect flurries or snow showers after Midnight along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin, but little if any accumulation is expected.  Winds Tonight will shift to the north/northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night:

A ridge of high pressure will cover the Plains and Upper Midwest while strong low pressure heads N-NE into the Ohio Valley.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur in our area with highs on Tuesday in the 20s and 30s with lows Tuesday Night in the teens with some single digits possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be variable to north/northwest at 5 to 15 mph during this period.

Extended Forecast:

Wednesday will be dry with high temperatures mainly in the 30s.  Another cold front pushes south/east across our area Wednesday Night-Thursday, still looks like there could be a band of light accumulating snow as this front moves through, although what area/s see this minor snow event is uncertain at this time.  Consensus per Today’s model data would be for Northern Minnesota to have the best chance for a 1-2″ snowfall from Wednesday Night into Thursday, but this could change.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Thursday mainly in the 20s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the single digits and teens.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 27 to 32.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind west around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  High 33 to 38.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible late.  Low 20 to 25.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 25 to 30.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 8 to 13.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  29 degrees
Low:  15 degrees

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Issued at 7:11 PM CST, Sunday, November 27th, 2011

• Dry weather thru Tuesday
• Possible mid-week minor snow event
• No arctic air this week

Weather Tidbits:

*November 2011 will likely go down as the 5th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota.

*November 2011 will likely go down as the 3rd consecutive month with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather History:

On this date in 1998:  A record high temperature of 60 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
On this date in 1994:  12.4″ of snow fell at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Ridge of high pressure averaging 1024mb stretched from the Central Plains to Northern Minnesota early This Evening.  Skies remained overcast Today with little if any sunshine anywhere in our area.  Some flurries also occurred mainly This Morning.  High temperatures were in the upper 20s to middle 30s which is right around average for late November.  Winds Today were out of the north or west under 20 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a sharp but narrow upper level trough extending from Eastern Texas to Eastern Ontario Province with a SW 500mb flow covering the Eastern U.S., and a N-NW H5 flow across the Upper Midwest.  Warm air has moved back into the Northern Plains with early Evening 850mb temperatures ranging from +4 to +14 degrees C from the Dakotas to the Northern Rockies while a batch of cold air remained over the Great Lakes and Central Canada where 850mb temperatures ranged from -4 to -10 degrees C per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

High pressure moves off to our east while a warm front moves into the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with lows in the teens and 20s, but some single digits are possible in far Northern Minnesota especially if skies become mostly clear.  Patchy fog could also develop late Tonight mainly north of the Iron Range.  Winds will become southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday Night:

Warm front moves east of our area by midday Monday with a cold front moving quickly southeast and through our area Monday Afternoon/Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecasted this period with highs on Monday in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph on Monday with northwest winds Monday Night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Dry weather is expected for Tuesday and most of Wednesday.  Highs will be in the 20s and 30s on both those days with lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night in the teens and 20s.  A batch of colder air moves into the Upper Midwest late in the week, and just ahead of this cold airmass there might be a weak low pressure wave that scoots E-NE out of the Western High Plains…If this happens, then there could be a band of light accumulating snow (probably 1-2″ amounts) across the Northland for Wednesday Night-early Thursday.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 39 to 44.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night…  Light snow or flurries possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Chance of snow 30%.

.Thursday…  Flurries possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 23 to 28.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29 degrees
Low:  15 degrees

Sunrise Monday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim

Issued at 5:04 PM CST, Saturday, November 26th, 2011

An area of low pressure passed south/east of the Northland Today.  This system brought some rain and snow to our area.

Snowfall report for Saturday, November 26th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  4.2″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  3.4″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  2.8″
3 miles north of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  2.2″
Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  2.0″
Finland, MN (Lake County)  1.3″
Virginia, MN (St. Louis County)  1.0″

Rainfall report for Saturday, November 26th, 2011
Source:  NWS Duluth, Minnesota

Ashland, WI:  0.26″
Hayward, WI:  0.27″
Butternut, WI:  0.55″
Gile, WI:  0.60″
Madeline Island, WI:  0.44″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.46″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.54″

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 5th day in a row with a maximum temperature of at least 32 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (November 22nd-26th)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1006mb has moved into Central Lake Superior early This Evening.  Widespread precipitation earlier in the day tapered off from west to east during the Afternoon as the surface low pulled away from our area.  As of early Evening there was some lingering snow showers and flurries across parts of Northeast Minnesota while some drizzle and light rain showers continued in parts of Northwest Wisconsin back to Downtown Duluth.  High temperatures Today were in the 30s and 40s with east winds shifting to the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb trough extended from the Upper Midwest to the Central Plains with a 130 knot upper level jet located on the west side of this H5 trough and a 120 knot upper level jet just ahead of this upper trough per RUC model analysis.  Colder air was filtering into the Upper Midwest Today as low pressure moves away.  Late Afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from -6 degrees C in the Northwest half of Minnesota to zero degrees C in Western Upper Michigan per RUC model analysis.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight:

Low pressure will move into Eastern Lake Superior.  Scattered snow showers and flurries will be found across our area with little if any accumulation expected, exception to this might be along the South Shore of Lake Superior where 1-3″ of snow could accumulate by Sunday Morning.  Note:  Patchy drizzle will also continue This Evening around the head of Lake Superior and into Northwest Wisconsin.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecasted with lows in the 20s to around 30 degrees, but some spots up North could drop into the teens.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.

Sunday and Sunday Night:

Low pressure heads into Eastern Canada while a warm front heads east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest for Sunday Night.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected during this period with some Morning snow showers or flurries possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph on Sunday with winds turning to the southwest at 5 to 15 mph Sunday Night.

Extended Forecast:

A couple of cold fronts will move through the Upper Midwest next week, none of these fronts will bring much in the way of precipitation to the area, but some flurries or snow showers could occur at times, especially around the middle of next week the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Tuesday Night in the teens and 20s.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Light snow and flurries This Evening with a mixture of light rain, drizzle and light snow closer to Lake Superior.  Lingering flurries Overnight.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly sunny.  High 29 to 34.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  High 37 to 42.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  30 degrees
Low:  16 degrees

Sunrise Sunday:  7:28 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim