Issued at 4:35 PM CST, Saturday, January 28th, 2012
- Flurries and snow showers around the area Tonight
- A cold Sunday ahead
- Warmer temperatures return on Monday and will stick around for several more days
- Amplified weather pattern sets up by the end of next week
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Temperatures cooled off a bit Today compared to the past few days. Highs were in the upper teens to middle 20s which is right around average for late Janaury. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were found in our area with occasional flurries and snow showers. Winds were out of the northwest or west-southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Northwest 500mb flow covered the Upper Midwest with Friday’s disturbance now in Eastern Canada while a new disturbance drops SE out of North Dakota per water vapor satellite imagery. A powerful 130-150 knot jet stream extended from Saskatchewan Province to the Western Dakota per RUC model analysis with a surge of colder air pushing south into the Upper Midwest ahead of this strong jet stream. 850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from -12 degrees C in Northern Minnesota to -6 degrees C in Southwest Minnesota. -16 to -20 degree C 850mb temperatures were sitting to our north late This Afternoon and some of this cold air will find it’s way into the Northland during the next 24 hours.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (January 28th)
Occasional snow showers and flurries will linger throughout the area with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Snowfall accumulations of around an inch will be possible along the South Shore of Lake Superior, especially in Iron County. Lows Tonight will be in the single digits below to low teens above zero. Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (January 29th)
High pressure will keep the area dry on Sunday, although some lake effect snow showers are possible mainly in Iron County where another inch of snow could accumulate on Sunday. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with northwest or southwest winds at up to 20 mph. Warm advection pattern develops Sunday Night as high pressure moves off to our east and a warm front approaches from the Northern Plains. Southerly winds will develop Sunday Night with increasing cloudiness.
Light snow and flurries will develop by mid-late Evening from the Brainerd Lakes area, north to Bigfork and International Falls. This snow will spread east, reaching the Iron Range, Twin Ports and I35 corridor after 1am Sunday Night. Snow should reach the North Shore/Arrowhead and Northwest Wisconsin toward dawn on Monday.
Temperatures Sunday Night will hold pretty steady from Tomorrow’s highs. Winds Sunday Night will be out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Note: Snowfall accumulations of around an inch are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Sunday Night into Monday.
1″ or greater snowfall map for Sunday Night and Monday per HPC:
Extended Forecast (January 30th-February 1st)
Light snow and flurries will persist across our area Monday Morning as warm air advection continues with a warm front to our west/south. This snow should come to an end from west to east Monday Afternoon. Low pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, right now it appears that the best chance for some light snow or a wintry mix of precipitation will be in Northern Minnesota with maybe some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle affecting parts of Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday. This system exits to our east for Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Some flurries could linger in parts of our area Tuesday Night with dry weather for Wednesday. High temperatures from Monday through Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s, but a few spots could approach 40 degrees on Tuesday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 20s.
Long Range Forecast (February 2nd-8th)
Upper level pattern is forecasted to become quite amplified during this period. The computer models are not handling this pattern change too well with some drastic shifts noted in some of the models from one run to the next. There are no signs of any big storms affecting the Upper Midwest, but the temperature forecast is up in the air at this time. It does appear that an upper level ridge will build into the Western U.S. starting late this week which will then carry over into the following week, but how far east this ridge builds is uncertain at the moment. If this ridge can build into the Upper Midwest, then a period of unseasonably mild temperatures would likely occur..Highs at least in the 30s and 40s, perhaps even warmer! Should this ridge stay farther west, then the Upper Midwest would likely have colder temperatures, possibly even arctic air as cold air would build south from Hudson Bay/Northern Canada.
500mb map for Saturday, February 4th per HPC:
Note: Keep an eye on that ridge in the Western U.S. If it ends up farther east than what this map shows, then it would be a warm Super Bowl weekend in Minnesota. If it stays farther west like what is depicted here, then it would be a chilly Super Bowl weekend for our area.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Occasional snow flurries. Low 0 to 5. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chills around 10 to 15 below Overnight.
.Sunday… Mostly sunny. High 10 to 15. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chills around 10 to 15 below.
.Sunday Night… Increasing cloudiness. Light snow or flurries possible after 2am. Low 5 to 10. Wind becoming south to southeast around 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%.
.Monday… Light snow or flurries possible during the Morning. Total snowfall accumulations of 1″ or less. Mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Chance of snow 60%.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Tuesday… Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
.Tuesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 20
Low: 2
Sunrise Sunday: 7:37 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:07 PM CST
Tim
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