Fog returns Tonight. Dry Sunday. Showers develop Sunday Night.

Issued at 3:54 PM CDT, Saturday, March 30th, 2012

  • A few Evening sprinkles/light rain showers
  • Mainly dry on Sunday
  • Chance for showers Sunday Night-early Tuesday, maybe some thunder in southern areas

Weather Tidbits:

-As of March 30th:  6,766 record high temperatures in the U.S. this month with 6,803 record high minimum temperatures.  (HAMweather)

-March 2012 will likely go down as the warmest on record at Duluth, Minnesota.  The average monthly temperature going into Today was 39.2 degrees.  The previous warmest March was 38.8 degrees set in 1878!

-April 2012 outlook for Duluth, Minnesota:  33% chance for above normal temperatures with equal chances for above, below or normal precipitation.  (CPC)

Weather History:

On this date in 2010 and 1986:  A record high temperature of 71 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another day filled with widespread low cloudiness, although skies were clearing in far Northwest parts of our area.  Since the clouds stuck around through the day, high temperatures ended up much cooler than expected by some 10-20 degrees.  Highs Today were mainly in the 40s with 30s in the Arrowhead.  A weak cold front has been moving E-SE out North Dakota Today, this front has generated a few light rain showers/sprinkles in parts of our area Today with a little bit of snow even occurring at times in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds Today were out of the south, southwest or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb pattern continues to feature a west-east flow across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with a disturbance moving east into the West half of Ontario Province while an upper level ridge builds north out of the Southern Plains per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from -6C in Northeast Ontario Province to +4 to +8C in Northeast Minnesota to +16C in Southwest Minnesota to +20C in Southwest Nebraska.

Note:  Temperatures This Afternoon were in the mid 80s in Southern Nebraska and Western Iowa with 70s into Southwestern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (March 31st)

A weak cold front will be moving south and out of our area during the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with a few sprinkles or brief light rain showers through mid-Evening.  Patchy fog is a possibility Tonight with lows mainly in the 40s with some 30s in Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will become north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (April 1st)

A warm front will be centered to our west/south during this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with a chance for showers by Sunday Night in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Sunday will range from the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.  Elevated instability will be on the increase Sunday Night with MUCAPE of up to 500 j/kg, especially from Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin…This could lead to a few thunderstorms by late Sunday Night with a risk for hail.

5% chance for severe weather Sunday Night in portions of the Northland.  The main risk would be from large hail.  (SPC)

Monday’s chance for severe weather is at 5% with large hail and possibly damaging winds being the main threats in Eastcentral Minnesota and most of Wisconsin.  (SPC)

Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (April 2nd-4th)

Low pressure will be passing through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday while a cold front moves east-southeast across our area from Monday into Monday Night.  Showers are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Monday into early Tuesday with a few thunderstorms possible on Monday, mainly in Northwest Wisconsin.  Dry weather should return for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be mainly in the 50s.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast (April 5th-11th)

Next Thursday and Friday should be dry.  A chance for showers will return next weekend (April 7-9) as the next low pressure system and upper level trough passes through the Upper Midwest.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy, but some clearing is possible late.  Areas of fog.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph, becoming northeast late.

.Sunday…  Areas of fog early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 52 to 57 but around 40 near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 51 to 56.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 51 to 56.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  41
Low:  24

Sunrise Sunday:  6:47 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:39 PM CDT

Tim

Snow and rainfall report from Thursday Night. A few Saturday showers. 80s, maybe 90s in SW Minnesota this weekend!

Issued at 4:00 PM CDT, Friday, March 30th, 2012

  • Patchy fog continues Tonight
  • A few showers possible along with milder temperatures on Saturday
  • Shower chances continue for Sunday and Monday

Snowfall report for Thursday, March 29th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Kabetogama, MN (St. Louis County)  4.7″
International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  4.5″
3 miles north-northwest of Illgen City, MN (Lake County)  3.3″
3 miles east of Orr, MN (St. Louis County)  3.0″
14 miles west of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  3.0″
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  2.5″
Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  2.0″
Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  1.5″

5 miles northwest of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  0.10″ A combination of sleet, freezing rain and snow accumulations measured at the National Weather Service.

Precipitation report for Thursday, March 29th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.26″
International Falls, MN:  0.77″
Brainerd, MN:  0.14″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.17″
Hibbing, MN:  0.41″
Hayward, WI:  0.18″
Ashland, WI:  0.11″
3 miles east of Wright, MN:  0.34″
Cass Lake, MN:  1.05″
12 miles north of Grand Rapids, MN:  0.60″
Northome, MN:  1.18″
Walker, MN:  0.60″
Cook, MN:  0.62″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.84″
9 miles north of Bayfield, WI:  0.17″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.17″
Sarona, WI:  0.18″

Two areas of heavier precip Thursday Night/Friday Morning.  One was from Northwest thru Northern Minnesota >0.75″ amounts.  The other area was associated with the severe thunderstorms that affected parts of Iowa and Northern Missouri Thursday Night.  (MRCC)

Weather Tidbits:

-March 29th marked the 3rd time this month with a precipitation total of at least 0.25″ at Duluth, Minnesota.  March 3rd:  0.33″.  March 12th:  0.28″.  March 29th:  0.26″

-Thru March 29th the average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota:  39.3 degrees which is 13.7 degrees above normal.  There is a chance that March 2012 will go down as the warmest on record.  The previous warmest March on record was 38.8 degrees.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1006mb has moved into Northeast Indiana late This Afternoon.  This was the system that brought the snow, sleet and rain to our area last night.  Behind this storm there remains plenty of low level moisture and with light winds, low clouds and areas of fog developed.  Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with calm or easterly winds around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A west to east 500mb flow continued across the Upper Midwest with several disturbances embedded within this flow continuing to move toward the east.  The 2 most notable disturbances were the one moving across the Ohio Valley and the other one was over Southeastern South Dakota per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from 0 to -2C in Northeast Minnesota to +4C in Central Minnesota to +10C in far Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (March 30th)

There might be some clearing during the night, but overall skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog will also continue with lows mainly in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  East or south winds are expected at around 10 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 31st)

Low pressure will pass by to our north while a cold front heads southeast through the area.  A few rain showers could develop near this cold front through Saturday Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs on Saturday in the 50s and 60s although far Northeast Minnesota might hold in the 40s, while the Brainerd Lakes area could get into the low 70s.  Lows Saturday Night will mainly be in the 40s.  South, southwest or north winds are expected this period at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (April 1st-3rd)

A warm front will be centered well to our south on Sunday.  This boundary will get shunted toward the east by a cold front and area of low pressure which will move out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week.  Should be dry on Sunday, then the chance for showers will increase a bit from Sunday Night into early Tuesday.  The best combination of instability and moisture should be south of our area, thus little if any thunderstorm activity is expected at this time.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsewhere, although 70s are possible from the Brainerd Lakes to Pine City, and east to the Hayward Lakes.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with 60s possible around the Hayward Lakes.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Note:  High temperatures could reach the 80s in portions of Western-Southwest Minnesota on Saturday and possibly even warmer on Sunday with 90 degrees a possibility!

1st map is the forecasted high temperatures for Saturday Afternoon per 4km NAM.  Note the 80s in Southwest Minnesota!

2nd map is the forecasted high temperatures for Sunday Afternoon per 4km NAM.  Note the 90s in parts of Southwest Minnesota!

Long Range Forecast (April 4th-10th)

The middle of next week looks dry and seasonable at this time.  The next Western U.S. trough and area of low pressure might be affecting the Upper Midwest sometime between April 6th-8th, this system could bring some rain to the region during the Eastern holiday weekend.  It appears that the easterly winds will become locked in once again with high pressure off to our northeast, might get a 1-2 day break from the easterlies early-middle part of next week, but they should be back once again by next Thursday.

HPC’s 500mb forecast for next Friday, April 6th, 2012.  The dip (trough) moving into the Northwest U.S. could be moving into our area next weekend, bringing with it some inclement weather for the Easter bunny.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Areas of fog.  Low 32 to 36.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Patchy fog possible early.  Becoming partly sunny.  Afternoon showers possible.  Milder.  High 58 to 63 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night…  Showers possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 53 to 58 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 38 to 43.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 35 to 40.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Saturday:  6:49 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim

Mother Nature reminding us that it’s still March and yes we can still get wintry precipitation, enjoy!

Issued at 8:24 PM CDT, Thursday, March 29th, 2012

  • Snow/rain/and some sleet Tonight
  • Some accumulation of snow expected in parts of the area Tonight
  • Gray skies continue for most of us on Friday
  • A few showers possible this weekend

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong high pressure of 1030mb was in Northern Ontario Province with low pressure of 1004mb centered in Southeastern Nebraska.  A typical March pattern Today with the high to our north feeding dry/chilly air into Northeast Minnesota while farther inland temperatures remained around 5 degrees warmer than normal.  Some Morning sunshine gave way to increasing cloudiness.  Rain affected parts of Northcentral Minnesota Today while evaporative cooling caused the rain to mix with and change to snow and sleet at times during the Afternoon in parts of Northern Minnesota and the Iron Range.  A brief period of snow and sleet also moved through the Twin Ports around 2pm Today, but none of this stuck to the ground.  Highs Today ranged from the 30s to around 40 near Lake Superior with 40s and lower 50s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A west to east 500mb flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery with several disturbances embedded within this flow heading through the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest.  The lead impulse was the strongest one with height falls up to 60 meters affecting parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from 0 to -3C in far Northeast Minnesota to +5C in Central Minnesota to +9C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (March 29th)

Low pressure will be moving through Iowa while a band of rain, snow and sleet continues north of this low across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Patchy fog is also possible Tonight.  Lows will be in the 30s with some 20s in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

-Snow accumulations of 1-4″ will occur Tonight along and north of Highway 2 in Northeast Minnesota.  International Falls, Bigfork, Hibbing, Cotton, Ely, Crane Lake, Isabella, BWCA, Gunflint Trail, the Arrowhead and the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior are some locations that will see accumulating snow during the night.  Some roads could become slippery Tonight and early Friday Morning.  Visibilities will drop to a mile or less in the heavier snow bands.

-A mixture of rain, sleet and snow will occur in the Twin Ports Tonight.  Snowfall accumulations of 1-2″ may occur, especially on top of the hill.

*Still a slight risk for >4″ of snow Tonight north-northeast of Duluth (HPC)

Friday and Friday Night (March 30th)

Patchy fog and drizzle is possible Tomorrow Morning with some flurries or light freezing drizzle near Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period, although a bit of clearing could take place for a time Friday Afternoon, especially in Western-Southern parts of the area.  Highs Tomorrow will range from the 30s to around 40 near Lake Superior with 40s and 50s elsewhere.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (March 31st-April 2nd)

A cold front will be moving through the Northland on Saturday.  This front could spawn some showers especially in Northern Minnesota.  Cold front stalls out to our south and turns into a warm front on Sunday, this boundary will stay well to our south through Monday as low pressure and an upper level trough move east out of the Northern and Central Plains.  This storm looks quite disorganized at the moment with multiple areas of low pressure.  It does appear that will get at least some rain between Sunday-early Tuesday, although the best chance for rain looks to be Monday/Monday Night.  There is also a chance for some snow or a rain/snow mix late Monday Night/Tuesday Morning, but any frozen precipitation doesn’t look to be very significant at this time.  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s for Saturday and Sunday with 40s and 50s on Monday.  It will be much cooler near Lake Superior where highs in the 40s are expected, but we may get a wind shift to the SW on Saturday, if that occurs then temps even near the big lake could get close to 60 degrees on Saturday.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s for Saturday Night and Sunday Night.

Long Range Forecast (April 3rd-9th)

Low pressure and upper level trough exits to our east for next Tuesday, this should give way to a day or two of dry weather in our area.  Really isn’t much consistency in the computer models during this period.  Some GFS and EUROPEAN runs show several systems tracking through or getting close to the Upper Midwest between April 5th-9th, while other runs really aren’t showing much of anything.  The overall weather pattern seems to be changing and this might be the reason behind why the forecast models are showing some wild swings from one run to the next.  Temperature trends are also uncertain for the first 2 weeks of April, although it looks like the up and down trend will linger, with any cold shot being short lived.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Occasional snow mixed with rain and sleet.  Areas of fog possible.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-2″ on top of the hill and 1″ or less closer to Lake Superior.  Low 31 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Areas of fog, flurries and drizzle mainly during the Morning.  High 38 to 43.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind east to southeast around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53 but around 40 near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Friday:  6:51 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:36 PM CDT

Tim

A complete wind report from Tuesday. Rain/snow with some sticking snow Thursday Night, especially north of the Twin Ports

Issued at 8:27 PM CDT, Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

  • Quiet weather Tonight
  • Rain moves into western parts of the area Thursday Afternoon
  • Rain/snow for the entire Northland Thursday Night
  • A few inches of snow likely Thursday Night, especially north of Duluth

Weather Tidbits:

*13,393 warm weather records in the U.S. just since March 1st, 2012 (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

*2,057 record high temperatures and 2,357 record high minimum temperatures in the U.S. from March 21st-28th.  (HAMweather)

*6 above! The low temperature one year ago Today at Duluth, Minnesota.

*Month to date precipitation total at Duluth, Minnesota:  1.35″ which is 0.02″ above average.

*Month to date snowfall total at Duluth, Minnesota:  11.9″ which is 0.4″ below average.

High temperature report for Tuesday, March 27th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  67 degrees
Brainerd, MN:  66 degrees
Hibbing, MN:  67 degrees
Ashland, WI:  72 degrees
Hayward, WI:  70 degrees
Sky Harbor, MN:  66 degrees
Bigfork, MN:  64 degrees
Aitkin, MN:  66 degrees
Moose Lake, MN:  68 degrees
Hinckley, MN:  66 degrees
Superior, WI:  70 degrees
Phillips, WI:  70 degrees
Park Falls, WI:  67 degrees
Gurney, WI:  68 degrees
Gordon, WI:  69 degrees

Wind gust report for Tuesday, March 27th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

6 miles west-southwest of Spirit, WI:  48 mph
Phillips, WI:  41 mph
Superior, WI:  43 mph
3 miles northwest of Superior, WI:  43 mph
Siren, WI:  44 mph
Duluth, MN:  48 mph
3 miles east of Hinckley, MN:  41 mph
1 mile north of Knife River, MN:  57 mph
7 miles east of Silver Bay, MN:  53 mph
Brainerd, MN:  44 mph
3 miles west of Schley, MN:  41 mph

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1024mb was building south out of Northern Ontario Province, but moisture wrapping around the deep low that moved through the area on Tuesday kept skies mostly cloudy thru mid-Afternoon, and there was also some scattered light rain showers which did mix with some snow.  Drier air moved into parts of the area during the Afternoon which resulted in a decrease in cloudiness.  Highs Today ranged from the upper 30s in far Northeast Minnesota with 40s and lower 50s common elsewhere.  Northwest winds Today were much lighter compared to 24 hours ago with wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph Today.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A quick moving upper level ridge was moving into the Upper Midwest This Evening per RUC model analysis.  Flow aloft was generally running west to east while a fairly strong disturbance moves east out of the Northwest U.S. per water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from 0 to -2C in Northern Minnesota to +2 to +8C in Western, Central and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (March 28th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue as high pressure remains off to our north.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (March 29th)

High pressure will be centered to our northeast during this period while an upper level disturbance approaches from the Northern Plains with low pressure off to our southwest.  Clouds will increase during the Morning and early Afternoon. 

Rain will overspread the area from west to east Thursday Afternoon and early Thursday Evening.  The rain will then mix with and change to snow Thursday Night especially along and north of U.S. Highway 2 while the rest of our area continues to get some rain which could mix with snow at times.  High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 30s with some 20s in Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the east at 10 to 20 mph.

-Snow Thursday Night could accumulate to 1-3″ from International Falls, Crane Lake and Ely, south to the Iron Range and west to Bigfork…This also includes the Arrowhead, Gunflint Trail areas as well as the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Snow accumulations would likely be higher if it wasn’t for the record warmth we’ve had in March which is resulting in warm ground temperatures, it will likely take some time for the snow to cool the ground enough before it starts to accumulate.  One thing that could off-set the warm ground temperatures would be if snowfall rates are heavy enough, if this occurs then accumulations could exceed 4″ in a few spots up north.

-The Twin Ports appears to be on that transition line between rain or snow.  Recent runs per NAM, ECM and SREF models have been trending far enough south to give the Twin Ports some sticking snow Thursday Night while the GFS remains warmer keeping most of the precip as rain or a rain/snow mix with little or no accumulation.

-Winter weather headlines may be issued by the National Weather for some parts of the Northland by Thursday Morning.

*A continued slight risk for 4″ or more of snow Thursday Night in parts of Northeast Minnesota per HPC.

HPC’s >1″ snowfall forecast thru 7pm Thursday.

HPC’s >1″ snowfall forecast for Thursday Night, 70-90% chance just N/NE of Duluth.

Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (March 30th-April 1st)

Low pressure disturbance exits to our east Friday Morning taking with it the rain or snow.  Should be dry Friday Afternoon through Sunday the way it looks now.  Temperatures will also warm up, especially away from Lake Superior.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s and 40s.  Highs for Saturday and Sunday will reach the 50s and 60s with 70s possible on Sunday from the Brainerd Lakes to Hinckley, east to Hayward, Park Falls and Phillips.  Looks like an onshore wind will persist near Lake Superior Friday-Sunday resulting in much cooler temperatures, although there is a possibility for a wind shift on Saturday which would result in a very pleasant day even near Lake Superior.  A cold front will settle south during the weekend, this front is forecast to become stationary in Central Minnesota on Sunday as deep low pressure moves into the Northern and Central Plains.

Long Range Forecast (April 2nd-8th)

A strong area of low pressure will be moving north/east through the Central Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week (April 2-3) Looks like will have some rain in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin next Monday and Tuesday, the rain could mix with or end as some snow in parts of the Northland.  Looks a bit drier toward mid-week.  Then the next system could be heading toward the region around the Easter holiday weekend (April 6-8)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible after 4pm.  High 39 to 44.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night…  Occasional rain.  The rain could mix with snow.  Low 33 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Chance of precipitaiton 80%.

.Friday…  Rain or snow possible during the Morning.  Mostly cloudy.  High 39 to 43.  Chance of precipitation 50%.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53 but around 40 near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Thursday:  6:53 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim

Wicked winds and a dry slot on Tuesday! Cooler and less wind for Wednesday. Rain/snow Thursday PM-Friday AM.

Issued at 9:06 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 27th, 2012

  • Overcast with spotty light precip and brisk winds Overnight
  • Cooler temps and less wind for Wednesday
  • Next system arrives Thursday and brings rain/snow to the area into Friday Morning

Precipitation report for Monday-Tuesday Morning, March 26th-27th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Kabetogama, MN:  0.23″
International Falls, MN:  0.22″
Grand Portage, MN:  0.20″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.19″
Cook, MN:  0.19″
Finland, MN:  0.17″

Heaviest precip Monday Night was in Northern Minnesota.  Up to 1/2″ toward the Ontario border!

Weather Tidbits:

-High temperature of 35 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota on March 26th was our coldest high temperature since March 9th (26 degrees) Monday was also the 1st time since March 9th with a below average high temperature.

-Thru March 26th:  Record warmest March in history at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota.  The average monthly temperature at Duluth:  39.1 degrees while International Falls was at 37.9 degrees.  The previous record warmest March at Duluth was 38.8 degrees and at International Falls it was 34.4 degrees set just 2 years ago in 2010.  (NWS Duluth)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong area of low pressure averaging 995mb has moved to near Thunder Bay Ontario Canada as of 8pm.  This system brought some strong thunderstorms to far Northern Minnesota late Monday Night with some small hail reported in a few spots.  Scattered showers also occurred throughout the area Monday Night with some freezing rain in the Arrowhead.  A dry slot passed through the Northland This Morning into mid-Afternoon which resulted in a decrease in clouds and a nice temperature recovery.  Highs ranged from the 50s in far Northern Minnesota to the 60s and lower 70s elsewhere.  Winds shifted to the south/west Today while increasing to 15 to 30 mph with gusts >45 mph!  Cold air induced stratocumulus clouds pushed south/east into our area by late Afternoon with some spotty light showers in Northern Minnesota.

Note:  Visible satellite loop from earlier Today.  Shows the dry-slot, clear sky area passing thru Minnesota as deep low pressure passes northwest of the state Today.  This was a text book storm!

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A powerful surface/upper level low with it’s 90-150 meter 12 hour height falls continued to move east through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ontario Province Canada per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  Generally speaking the flow aloft was running west-east from the Northern Rockies and Upper Midwest.  850mb temperatures as of 8pm ranged from 0C in the Northwest half of Minnesota to +6 to +12C in Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Rest of Tonight (March 27th)

Low pressure will pass just north of Lake Superior Overnight with cold air advection and mostly cloudy skies occurring in our area on the backside of this low.  Areas of light rain and drizzle will also occur for the remainder of the night, and some light snow/flurries could mix in with the rain mainly north of Highway 2 after Midnight.  Lows will be in the 30s to around 40s with winds out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Map below is valid for 7am Wednesday. Could be a few snowflakes late Tonight and Tomorrow Morning, especially north of Duluth.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (March 28th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period as an area of high pressure passes through the region.  Could be some scattered showers of rain and or snow on Wednesday with dry weather for Wednesday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be running 10-20 degrees colder compared to Tuesday with highs mainly in the 40s, but some spots in far Northern Minnesota might stay in the 30s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the north/northwest at 10 to 25 mph on Wednesday.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be shifting to the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Thursday-Saturday (March 29th-31st)

The next weather system to affect us will come through Thursday Afternoon-Friday Morning.  This one looks to bring some rain to Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin, but enough cold air should be in place for either a rain/snow mix or an all snow event in Northeast Minnesota. 

Right now it appears that Lake and Cook Counties as well as Northern St. Louis County in Northeast Minnesota have the best chance for some wintry precip Thursday Night, this would include cities such as Crane Lake, Ely, Isabella as well as the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior, the Arrowhead and Gunflint Trail areas.  Snowfall accumulations could reach 1-3″ in these areas by Friday Morning.

A slight risk for snowfall totals to reach or exceed 4″ in extreme Northeast Minnesota Thursday Night/Friday Morning per HPC.

Precipitation will end by Friday Afternoon with mainly dry weather expected for Friday Night and Saturday.

Highs will be mainly in the 40s on Thursday and Friday with highs on Saturday in the 50s and 60s.  It will be much cooler all 3 days near Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 30s to near 40 degrees Thursday Night and Friday Night.

Long Range Forecast (April 1st-7th)

Computer models are slowly coming into agreement during this period, but there continues to be some differences as the overall weather pattern seems to be changing as we head into early April.  Looks like will see a strong area of low pressure pass through the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, this low may cut-off during the early/mid part of next week.  Looks like will get some rain in the Northland from Sunday-Tuesday (1st-3rd) There’s also a chance that the rain could mix with or switch over to snow at some-point early next week.  Note:  Prior model runs especially the EUROPEAN have been showing a substanial amount of snow for parts of the Northland next Monday-Tuesday.  Stay tuned!  No real consistency seen in either the GFS or EUROPEAN when it comes to temperatures.  Some model runs show a colder pattern setting up for early April, others have a continued see-saw temperature pattern..One day cold, one day warm.

Here’s the forecast map for Sunday Morning, April 1st (HPC)

And the surface map for Tuesday Morning, April 3rd (HPC)  Could be a potent storm affecting the area with rain and maybe even some snow.  Stay tuned!

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain and drizzle at times.  Low 33 to 37.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.Wednesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  High 43 to 48.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night…  Becoming mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind becoming east around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain possible late.  High 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday Night…  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 36.  Chance of rain 70%.

.Friday…  Rain possible early.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  40
Low:  22

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:55 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:33 PM CDT

Tim