Monthly Archives: April 2012

Issued at 3:46 PM CDT, Monday, April 30th, 2012

• A few showers early This Evening
• Scattered showers-thunderstorms (severe?) Tuesday/Tuesday Night
• Additional chances for showers mid to late week

-15z SREF significant tornado ingredients index for late Tuesday Afternoon, centered at 7pm.  Eastcentral Minnesota could have an isolated spin-up, more details below.

Weather Tidbits:

April 2012 had more days in the 50s at Duluth, Minnesota, but fewer days in the 60s and 70s compared to March.

Number of days at or above 50F:  20 in April vs. 14 in March.
Number of days at or above 60F:  4 in April vs. 7 in March.
Number of days at or above 70F:  1 in April vs. 4 in March.

Rainfall report for Sunday Night/Monday Morning, April 29th-30th, 2012
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Prentice, WI:  0.70″
Butternut, WI:  0.27″
Saxon, WI:  0.20″
4 miles west of Clam Lake, WI:  0.15″
Hayward, WI:  0.09″

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy on this final day of April with mild temperatures.  Highs were in the 50s and 60s with 40s in Downtown Duluth.  Winds were out of the southwest or east at around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

500mb flow has transitioned into a more zonal pattern (west to east) A potent disturbance was passing north of our area thru Ontario Province Today with up to 60 meter 12 hour height falls per RUC model analysis.  A more impressive system was moving east thru the Pacific Northwest with 60-90 meter 12 hour height falls.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm ranged from +4C in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin to +8C in Southwest Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (April 30th)

The trailing edge of the Ontario disturbance will exit our area This Evening…This feature might be able to pop a shower or two early This Evening, but the majority of our area will be dry.  By late Tonight, a S/SW low level jet will start to ramp up ahead of a developing area of low pressure in the Northern Plains.  Advection of warmer/more moist air will begin Overnight, and this could lead to scattered showers after 3AM, especially around the Brainerd Lakes region.  Lows Tonight will mainly be in the 40s, with some 30s in Northeast Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south or east at around 10 mph.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

-12z 4km Hi-Res NAM forecast.  Could be a round of showers/thunderstorms around our area Tuesday Morning thru midday Tuesday.

-12z 4km Hi-Res NAM forecast for Tuesday Evening, additional storms are forecast to develop according to this model.  Note:  This is just 1 model’s take on how things may play out Tuesday and Tuesday Night.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (May 1st)

…A few severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening…

An area of low pressure will be passing west-northwest of our immediate area.  A warm front is expected to lift north out of Southern Minnesota while a cold front heads east out of Western Minnesota.

-Low level jet of 30-45 knots will be common in Minnesota ahead of this system with 850mb td’s climbing to +8 to +12C.

-Instability will be on the increase with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg by midday Tuesday-late Tuesday Night.  Lower amounts of instability is expected in Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.

-Dewpoints rising into the 50s, maybe even the low 60s in Southern parts of our area.

-Wind shear will be present.  Surface winds:  S/SE.  850mb winds:  S.  500mb winds:  W/SW.

-A mid level jet of around 50 knots will push E/NE out of the Northern Plains while an upper level jet with two stronger wind maxes…One north of the border of around 100 knots with an 80 knot wind max moving NE out of the Northern Plains.

The ingredients mentioned above will be enough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across our area for Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.  There is some uncertainty, however, in regards to how much sunshine will see on Tuesday and this is important since cloudier skies and more persistent convection would limit heating, resulting in lower instability levels compared to those mentioned above.  If this occurs, then the severe threat would be much lower in our area.

If the forecasted CAPE values and moisture are realized, then there would be a risk of severe thunderstorms especially Tuesday Afternoon and Evening.

*0-1 KM EHI of around 2 combined with 1km Helicity of around 150 m2/s2 working with around 40 knots of 6km Bulk Shear and Effective Bulk Shear would be favorable for a few supercells and possibly an isolated tornado risk, especially in Central and Eastern Minnesota between 5-9pm Tuesday.

-The main hazards from storms that become strong to severe would be from hail and gusty winds along with heavy rain and dangerous lightning.  Again, an isolated tornado risk is also possible late Tuesday Afternoon-early Tuesday Evening, mainly for Crow Wing, Southern Aitkin and Pine Counties in Northeast Minnesota and Burnett County in Northwest Wisconsin…This tornado risk also extends farther south as well, into Central Minnesota.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, east or west at 10 to 20 mph.

-SPC’s severe weather outlook for Tuesday.  All of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin is under a *Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms*

-SPC’s severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Tuesday.  The majority of our area is in a 15% chance.  Higher probs 30% are in Southern Pine County Minnesota, including Pine City.  With all of Central, Southern and most of Eastern Minnesota also in a 30% risk area.

12z NAM 1km EHI forecast for late Tuesday Afternoon.  Still noticing some higher values supportive of supercell thunderstorm development in parts of Central-Eastern Minnesota.

-Surface map for 7pm Tuesday per HPC.  Greatest threat for severe weather, possible supercells will likely be near the warm frontal boundary and area of low pressure along the ND/MN border.  Not sure if the warm front will be quite as far north as what this map shows, but will see.

-High temperature forecast for Tuesday.

Extended Forecast, Wednesday-Friday (May 2nd-4th)

The cold front that’ll move through our area Tuesday Night is forecast to stall out in Southern Minnesota and Central Wisconsin while wavering a bit toward the north/south from mid to late week.  Scattered showers are possible in our area during this period, but the potential for thunderstorms is lower since will be pretty far north of the actual boundary…The exception to this might be in the Pine City-Shell Lake-Hayward-Park Falls corridor and points south where a few stronger thunderstorms could occur Wednesday and Thursday.  High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Highs for Thursday and Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast (May 5th-11th)

High pressure will setup to our north while a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary well to our south.  A few areas of low pressure will likely eject out of the Western U.S. and move along that boundary.  It’s still too early to say for sure how far north the rain will get this weekend into the middle of next week, since the Northland will probably be fighting a dry/stable airmass coming south off that Ontario high.  It does look cooler during this period with temperatures near to possibly a bit below average.

-5 day precipitation forecast, valid thru Saturday Morning, May 5th, 2012.  (HPC) Some fairly healthy rainfall totals for the Upper Midwest this week.  Of course with thunderstorms, some spots will likely receive lots of rain while other locations receive lesser amounts.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 57 to 62 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind becoming south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday…  Showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  57
Low:  36

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:53 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:20 PM CDT

Tuesday’s Pollen Forecast:  8.7/Medium-High

Tim

Issued at 8:00 PM CDT, Sunday, April 29th, 2012

• Scattered showers Tonight and Monday
• Severe thunderstorm potential for Tuesday
• Most of us will have above average temperatures for the next several days

-12z 4km Hi-Res NAM forecast…Here’s 1 model’s take on how things could play out late Tuesday Afternoon and Evening.  This model shows thunderstorm development across Northcentral Minnesota.  More details below…

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota

April 22nd-28th, 2012.  2nd number represents the departure from average.

April 22nd:  47 degrees/-6 degrees
April 23rd:  59 degrees/+6 degrees
April 24th:  66 degrees/+12 degrees
April 25th:  49 degrees/-5 degrees
April 26th:  53 degrees/-2 degrees
April 27th:  50 degrees/-5 degrees
April 28th:  50 degrees/-6 degrees

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota

April 22nd-28th, 2012.  2nd number represents the departure from average.

April 22nd:  34 degrees/+1 degree
April 23rd:  25 degrees/-8 degrees
April 24th:  47 degrees/+13 degrees
April 25th:  41 degrees/+7 degrees
April 26th:  32 degrees/-2 degrees
April 27th:  32 degrees/-3 degrees
April 28th:  33 degrees/-2 degrees

Note:  4/22-4/28 precipitation total:  0.35″ with a trace of snow.

-Precipitation total from this past week, certainly was much drier in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin compared to the previous week.

-Duluth had about 50% of their average precip for April 22-28.  Northwest Wisconsin had only 25% of their normal precipitation amount this past week.  Better conditions were found across Northern Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1024-1026mb extended from Southern Hudson Bay Canada to the Eastern Great Lakes.  A stationary front was draped west-east thru the Central Plains.  A weak surface trough was over the Central Dakotas.  Our area saw partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies Today with scattered light rain showers and sprinkles affecting parts of our area.  Highs ranged from the middle to upper 40s near Lake Superior with 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

The pattern is changing after about a week of a general N/NW 500mb flow.  Upper level trough continued to cover the Northeast U.S. and Quebec Province with an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes while a potent disturbance lifts E/NE thru North Dakota and Southern Manitoba Province with the greatest height falls staying north of the border per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 7pm ranged from +6 to +8C in Southwest Minnesota to +2 to +4C in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (April 29th)

Low pressure trough will remain west of our area while a disturbance lifts northeast out of Central Iowa.  An area of rain associated with that Iowa disturbance will affect parts of Northwest Wisconsin Tonight, generally east of an Ashland to Hayward line.  Elsewhere, expect scattered light rain showers.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-5pm HRRR model run:  Rainfall amounts of around a quarter inch are possible by Monday Morning around Hurley, Park Falls, Exeland and Loretta in Northwest Wisconsin.  The rest of the Northland will have very light amounts, generally around a trace of 0.05″.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

Monday and Monday Night (April 30th)

The final day of April will feature mild temperatures.  Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night mainly in the 40s.  Scattered showers are also possible during this period with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the south, west or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Monday’s high temperature forecast.

Extended Forecast, Tuesday-Thursday (May 1st-3rd)

…A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday.  The Storm Prediction Center has all but Northeast and Southeast Minnesota in a *Slight Risk* for severe thunderstorms.  This includes the cities of International Falls, Hibbing, Bigfork, Grand Rapids, Cass Lake, Brainerd, Aitkin, Moose Lake, Hinckley and Pine City in our local area.

Low pressure is expected to move northeast across the Northern Plains on Tuesday while a warm front lifts north into Minnesota, with a cold front heading east into the area Tuesday Night. 

-A 30-40 knot low level jet from the south is forecast to develop ahead of this system which should pull deeper moisture north into our area.  Dewpoints in the 50s and 850mb td’s of around +10C are expected in our area on Tuesday with increasing instability with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg (possibly higher depending on sky conditions)

-Winds will be changing direction with height with S-SE surface winds, switching to the south at 850mb and W-SW at 500mb.  0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear is forecast to be in the 30-40 knot range which is favorable for severe weather.  Also of concern is the 1km Energy Helicity Index which maxes out in the 2-3 range in portions of Central Minnesota late Tuesday Afternoon.

-18z NAM 1km EHI forecast for late Tuesday Afternoon.  Note the maxed out values in Westcentral & Central Minnesota.  Values of 2-3 indicate the potential for supercellular thunderstorms and possible tornadoes if other ingredients are in place.  Stay tuned!

The potential is there for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Northland for Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  If the parameters mentioned above do indeed materialize, then there would also be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms especially Tuesday Afternoon-Evening.  Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards, but with the shear in place, the potential for supercells and possibly an isolated tornado threat are also possible, especially near the warm frontal boundary in Central Minnesota.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s and 70s, but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.

For Wednesday and Thursday…A cold front will likely become stationary south/east of our area.  This front could remain close enough to our area to produce more showers or thunderstorms especially on Wednesday.  Right now it appears that any severe potential on Wednesday would be south of our area, but this could change.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast (May 4th-10th)

Some showers are possible late next week/weekend (4th-6th) but this will depend on how the pattern sets up at that time.  It’s certainly possible that any rain late next week would be well to our south as high pressure attempts to build south once again out of Central Canada.  It does look cooler during this period with near to even below normal temperatures returning.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers at times.  Low 36 to 41.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Variable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  High 58 to 63 but cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind southeast around 10 mph during the Morning, becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 60%.

.Wednesday…  Showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  Showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  57
Low:  36

Sunrise Monday:  5:54 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:18 PM CDT

Monday’s Pollen Forecast:  10.0/High
Monday’s UV Forecast:  7.0/Medium

Tim

Issued at 3:57 PM CDT, Saturday, April 28th, 2012

• Dry and cool Tonight
• A risk for some showers Sunday Night-Monday along with near to above normal temps
• Chance for off an on showers most of next week, maybe some thunder?

-A very cool looking visible satellite image from This Afternoon.  Clear skies north of Duluth, cloudier skies from near Duluth and points south.

-Here’s another visible satellite loop from earlier Today.  Note the clear skies in Northern Minnesota and Lake Superior, ahh the power of an Ontario high!

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge averaging 1026mb extended from Central Ontario Province to Lake Huron This Afternoon with low pressure of 1010mb covering Northwest South Dakota.  A very fine line between sunshine and clouds Today and this line was pretty much along the Highway 2 corridor in Northeast Minnesota.  Locations north of Highway 2 saw mainly sunny skies and pleasant temperatures Today with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, while locations along and south of Highway 2 saw partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 40s and 50s with upper 30s in Downtown Duluth.  The high to our north/east continued to pump a very dry airmass into our area which kept all the rain or mixed precipitation well to our west/south Today.  Winds Today were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, especially near Lake Superior.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A very chaotic 500mb pattern Today.  An upper level low was nearly stationary in Western South Dakota with an upper level trough covering the Western U.S.  Another trough remained in place from Central-Eastern Canada to the Northeast U.S., undercutting these upper troughs was a W/SW flow from the Central Plains to Eastern U.S.  A narrow 500mb ridge extended from Manitoba and Western Ontario Provinces, south to the Western Great Lakes per RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3pm in Minnesota were generally in the +2 to +4C range.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (April 28th)

A ridge of high pressure to our north/east will keep our area dry Tonight under clear skies in Northern Minnesota and partly to mostly cloudy skies for Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with east winds at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  (intellicast.com)

-Sunday’s high temperature forecast.  (intellicast.com)

-Still a risk for a frost/freeze Tonight in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  (intellicast.com)

Sunday and Sunday Night (April 29th)

High pressure will remain in place to our north/east while low pressure moves very slowly toward the east across the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period.  Could be some scattered rain showers especially Sunday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (April 30th-May 2nd)

Scattered showers are possible next Monday as a weakening disturbances moves thru the Upper Midwest.  A somewhat stronger system will be moving northeast thru the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for next Tuesday and Wednesday…This one has the potential to bring more widespread showers to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tuesday and Wednesday.  There’s also a chance for a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday Night, but severe weather isn’t expected this far north due to marginal instability and moisture up in this area.  High temperatures for Monday-Wednesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night mainly in the 40s.

-5 day precipitation forecast from the HPC.  This is valid thru Thursday Morning, May 3rd, 2012.

Long Range Forecast (May 3rd-9th)

An upper level ridge is forecast to develop across the Southern U.S. while a zonal or W/SW upper level flow develops farther north for late next week/weekend.  Our area will be in between the ridge to our south and an upper level trough in Central/Eastern Canada.  Too early to tell which one will win out, although as of late the Central Canadian trough has won the battle more times than not which has resulted in cool temperatures, especially around Lake Superior.  If the storm track sets up far enough to the north, then we will have the chance for some rain showers from Thursday-Sunday (May 3rd-6th)  If the drier/cooler Central Canada trough wins out, then our area should be mostly dry during this period.  No signs of any prolonged warm-ups in the long range.  Temperatures for the most part should remain near seasonal averages.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 52 to 57 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Tuesday…  Showers possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Tuesday Night…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Chance of rain 50%.

.Wednesday…  Showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 63 to 68.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  56
Low:  35

Sunrise Sunday:  5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:17 PM CDT

Sunday’s Pollen Forecast:  10.1/High
Sunday’s UV Forecast:  6.0/Medium

Tim

Issued at 4:28 PM CDT, Friday, April 27th, 2012

• Near to below normal temperatures into Saturday
• Warming up a bit away from Lake Superior on Sunday
• Looks dry this weekend
• Numerous shower chances next week

-Kinda wet in Westcentral/Southern Minnesota Tonight and Saturday.  A quarter to half inch of rain could fall thru Tomorrow, might even become cold enough for some ice pellets/wet snow flakes late Tonight-Saturday Morning.  (HPC)

Weather Tidbits:

*Some spots up north dropped into the mid and upper teens last night.  Silver Bay, MN:  18 F.  Ely, MN:  19 F.  Crane Lake, MN:  19 F.  Babbitt, MN:  16 F.  Embarrass, MN:  17 F.  (NWS Duluth)

*98.22% of Minnesota is abnormally dry which is down from 99.26% one week ago.  63.44% of Minnesota remains in moderate drought which is down from 64.62% last week.  22.58% of Minnesota is in severe drought which is down from 23.06% last week.  (Climate Prediction Center)

-Wisconsin drought monitor as of April 24th, 2012 per CPC.  Western parts of Burnett County in Northwest Wisconsin are in moderate drought, the rest of Northwest Wisconsin is abnormally dry.

*Long Term Drought Index:  For the week ending on April 21st, 2012:  An additional 3-6″ of precipitation is needed to get back to average in Northern Minnesota.  Things have improved in Northeast Minnesota where anywhere from a trace-3″ of additional precipitation is needed to get back to average.  (CPC)

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure ridge of 1022-1026mb extended from Central Manitoba Province to Southern Lake Michigan with low pressure of 996mb in Central Kansas with a few weaker lows of 1000-1004mb in Southwest South Dakota and Northeast Montana.  Our area was under the control of the Manitoba high which is feeding dry air into our area, although mid/high level cloudiness has spread into our area Today with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs ranged from the middle 30s in the Arrowhead to the 40s and 50s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

-Radar loop showing the chilly, wind driven rain affecting portions of the Northern Plains Today.  (intellicast.com)

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A potent disturbance was moving E-NE thru Northern Kansas Today with an upper level trough extending northwest into the Northern Plains and Northern Rockies while another upper level trough covered the Northern/Eastern Great Lakes, Northeast U.S. and Eastern Canada per water vapor satellite imagery and RUC model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from 0 to -2C in Northeast Minnesota to +2 to +8C in Western and Southern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Saturday Night (April 27th-28th)

High pressure will remain to our north and east, this high will keep the area dry with partly to at times mostly cloudy skies.  Lows Tonight and Saturday Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 40s and 50s.  East winds will continue at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph near Lake Superior.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  (intellicast.com)

-Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  (intellicast.com)

-Tonight’s frost/freeze potential.  (intellicast.com)

Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (April 29th-May 1st)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather on Sunday with mostly dry conditions.  Highs will warm up a bit away from Lake Superior with 50s and some 60s expected but 40s will continue near the lake.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Southerly flow locks in early next week as high pressure pushes farther toward the east.  Shower chances return to the area next Monday and Tuesday as low pressure begins to develop in the Western High Plains-Northern Plains.  Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the mainly in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast (May 2nd-8th)

There will be a chance for showers from the middle of next week thru next weekend (2nd-6th) as multiple areas of low pressure track thru or get close to the Upper Midwest.  A couple of thunderstorms are even possible next Wednesday, mainly in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures for the most part should remain near seasonal averages during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 34.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 46 to 51 but around 40 closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Monday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 55 to 60.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday…  Showers possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  55
Low:  35

Sunrise Saturday:  5:58 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:16 PM CDT

Saturday’s Allergy Forecast:  9.1/Medium to High
Saturday’s UV Forecast:  6.0/Medium

Tim

Issued at 4:42 PM CDT, Thursday, April 26th, 2012

• Dry weather pattern with near to below average temps thru Sunday
• Frost/freeze potential Tonight and for the next few nights
• Showers could return next week

-If you live in the areas shaded in blue, be prepared for a frost/hard freeze come Friday Morning (intellicast.com)

Weather Tidbits:

-Thru April 25th:  3.70″ of precipitation has fallen at Duluth, Minnesota which is 1.76″ above average.  Our monthly average temperature is 42.1 degrees which is 3.6 degrees above average.

-Hottest April day on record on Wednesday, April 25th, 2012 at Lubbock and Childress, Texas.  The high temperature was 104 degrees at Lubbock and 106 degrees at Childress.  (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)

-The high temperature of 104 degrees at Lubbock, TX on Wednesday was 26 degrees above normal for April 25th and was 9 degrees above normal for July 4th! It also beat their previous record high by 18 degrees!  (Twitter; @chasetheplains; @JeffLast; @Geostrophic)

-1,368 record high temperatures in the Western and Central U.S. from April 19th-26th.  (hamweather)

-On this date in 1996:  A record low temperature of 20 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1026mb was located in Northcentral Manitoba Province late This Afternoon.  Sunshine and near normal temperatures were common in our area Today with highs in the 50s with middle 40s in some spots closer to Lake Superior.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at around 10 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow aloft covered the Upper Midwest with 500mb troughs in Eastern Canada and Western U.S. per RUC model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 4pm ranged from 0 to -4C in Central and Northern Minnesota to +2 to +6C in Southwestern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight through Friday Night (April 26th-27th)

High pressure will be in control of our weather as it remains off to our N/NW.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast during this period, although clouds might become more widespread, especially in Southern parts of our area Friday and Friday Night.  Lows Tonight and Tomorrow Night will be in the 20s and 30s with highs Tomorrow in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts developing Friday and Friday Night, especially near Lake Superior.

-Low temperature forecast for Tonight (intellicast.com)

-High temperature forecast for Friday (intellicast.com)

Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (April 28th-30th)

High pressure will pass through Central/Eastern Canada during this period.  Looks dry for Saturday and Sunday, then by next Monday we could be dealing with some rain showers as a weather system begins to organize to our west.  High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s on Saturday with mainly 50s to lower 60s expected for Sunday and Monday.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s Saturday Night and mainly the 30s for Sunday Night.

-HPC’s snowfall forecast of >1″ totals for 7pm Friday-7pm Saturday.  Still some slight probabilities for Westcentral-Southern Minnesota.  Higher chances farther west in North Dakota.

Long Range Forecast (May 1st-7th)

Rain showers are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin between Tuesday/Thursday, May 1st-3rd.  Could be dealing with another system sometime next weekend, or May 5th-7th…That one could also bring some rain showers to our area.  Temperatures look to be near seasonal averages during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear.  Low 26 to 31.  Wind north to northeast around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Becoming breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 47 to 52, but around 40 closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 41 to 46.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 33 to 38.

.Monday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 52 to 57.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  55
Low:  34

Sunrise Friday:  5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:14 PM CDT

Friday’s Pollen Forecast:  10.7/High
UV Forecast:  6.0/Medium

Tim