Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Saturday, June 30th, 2012
…Latest Flood Information as of Saturday Afternoon…
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
*Flood Warning* Until 5:30 AM CDT Sunday for the following Counties:
Southeast Cass, MN
Crow Wing, MN
Some locations that will experience flooding include: Brainerd…Crosby…Crosslake…Cuyuna…Deerwood…Emily…Fort Ripley…Little Pine…Mission…Pine Center…Riverton…Shephard…Trommald…and Woodrow.
*Flood Warning* Until 6:00 AM CDT Sunday for the following Counties:
Southeast Itasca, MN
Some locations that will experience flooding include: Grand Rapids…Aitkin…Jacobson…Kimberly…La Prairie…Libby…McGregor…Palisade…Pine Knoll…Swan River…Swatara…and Tamarack.
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.
*At 3:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.5 feet.
*Major flood stage is 18.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
*Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
*The river is forecast to remain in major flood stage through Tuesday, July 3rd. And is expected to be in moderate flood stage from July 4th through July 7th.
*At 19.0 feet the Transformer Station needs emergency protection.
A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.
*At 2:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 11.8 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
*The river will continue to fall to near 11.5 feet by Tomorrow Morning.
*At 12.0 feet the Boat Landing and parking lot at the Public Access are under water.
-Visible satellite image from 3:15 PM CDT Today, note the bright white dot in Southwest South Dakota, that’s a supercell thunderstorm that dropped golf ball size hail in Custer County.
-389 record high temperatures were either tied or broken in the U.S. on June 29th. 145 of them were June records and 37 of them were all-time records. (TWC)
-Nearly 40,000 high temperature records have been broken so far in 2012 compared to 24,000 up to this point last year. (weathernation)
-Today marks the 10th time so far this year with a high temperature of at least 90F at Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota. The average for an entire year is 14.
-Today marks the 4th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.
-A derecho traveled more than 600 miles on Friday from Chicago, Illinois to Washington, D.C. 1,036 severe weather reports occurred on Friday with 977 damaging wind reports, 35 of which were significant (winds >65 knots) Source: Storm Prediction Center
-Here are some of the more significant wind reports from Friday: Fort Wayne, Indiana: 91 MPH; Marengo, Iowa: 90 MPH; Findlay, Ohio: 84 MPH; Dayton, Ohio: 82 MPH; Ladora, Iowa: 80 MPH.
-An amazing number of damaging wind reports (blue dots on the map below) on Friday. (SPC)
*A few high temperature records from Friday, June 29th, 2012*
Source: Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: 97F
Georgetown, Delaware: 101F
Washington, D.C. (Dulles) 102F
Roanoke, Virginia: 103F
Indianapolis, Indiana: 103F
Danville, Virginia: 104F
Charlotte, North Carolina: 104F
Nashville, Tennessee: 109F
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today, in fact some locations saw a lot more clouds Today compared to previous days. Temperatures were still on the warm side, however, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to middle 80s which is about 5 degrees or so above the normal for the final day of June. Dewpoints Today remained in the tolerable category with readings in the 50s. Winds were out of the southwest or north-northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
A continued W/NW flow across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis with upper level ridging across the Central-Southern U.S. Disturbances continue to E-SE from the Rockies through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, or on the north side of the intense heat dome to our south. 850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C in Northern and Central Minnesota.
-500mb analysis for 7 AM Sunday, June 30th, 2012
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (June 30th)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with lows in the 50s and 60s along with light winds at around 10 mph. A disturbance moving SE across the region combined with marginal instability with CAPE <1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of 0 to -3C may be enough to trigger a few showers or thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Tonight, but severe weather is not expected.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Sunday and Sunday Night (July 1st)
It will become a little more humid and unstable during this period as a stalled frontal boundary in Nebraska and Iowa begins to lift slowly toward the north. This front combined with possible disturbances going up and around the heat pump (ridge) to our south could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms in our area for Sunday and Sunday Night.
CAPE is forecast to reach 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -1 to -4C. There will also be some wind shear in place, generally around 30 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear.
Dewpoints will range from 57-65F with PWATS of 1.00-1.50″ and 850mb dewpoints around +10C.
Thunderstorm coverage should remain spotty in the Northland, but storms that develop could become strong to possibly severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.
Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph. Sky conditions will vary between partly and mostly cloudy, similar to Saturday.
-Sunday’s high temperature forecast
-Storm Prediction Center has all of the Northland in a 5% chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday Night.
Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (July 2nd-4th)
The overall weather pattern changes little during this period. An upper level ridge in the Plains and Ohio Valley may expand a bit more to the north with a near zonal flow (west to east) in place north of this ridge from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes.
There should be plenty of instability and moisture in our area with a frontal boundary nearby and possible disturbances tracking across the region. Showers or thunderstorms could develop on occasion from Monday-Wednesday, and if storms do develop they could become severe.
High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s through this period, although it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior. Lows for Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be mainly in the 60s.
-Storm Prediction has much of Northcentral Minnesota in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and Monday Night.
-HPC’s max Heat Index Forecast for Wednesday, July 4th, 2012. 100-105F heat index values possible as far north as Southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities on the 4th.
Long Range Forecast (July 5th-11th)
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for next Thursday-Saturday, July 5-7. The pattern at that time will continue to feature a hot dome of high pressure to our south with a frontal boundary in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Still seeing signs per long range model guidance for a bit of pattern change between July 8-11 with more of a NW flow and drier/somewhat cooler/more stable air moving into the Upper Midwest at that time. Temperatures through this period are forecast to be at or above normal.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind west around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Sunday… Variable cloudiness. Warm and a bit humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 81 to 86. Wind west at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Sunday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early. Low 58 to 63. Wind becoming east around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
.Monday… Partly sunny. Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 78 to 83 but cooler closer to Lake Superior. Chance of rain 30%.
.Monday Night… Mostly cloudy. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.
.Tuesday… Humid. Showers or thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Chance of rain 40%.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65.
.4th of July… Partly sunny. Humid. High 80 to 85.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Sunday: 5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 9:06 PM CDT
Duluth-Superior Harbor water temperature: 63F as of Saturday Morning
Sunday’s UV Index: 9.0/Medium-High