Monthly Archives: June 2012

Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Saturday, June 30th, 2012

…Latest Flood Information as of Saturday Afternoon…

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*Flood Warning* Until 5:30 AM CDT Sunday for the following Counties:

Southeast Cass, MN
Crow Wing, MN

Some locations that will experience flooding include:  Brainerd…Crosby…Crosslake…Cuyuna…Deerwood…Emily…Fort Ripley…Little Pine…Mission…Pine Center…Riverton…Shephard…Trommald…and Woodrow.

*Flood Warning* Until 6:00 AM CDT Sunday for the following Counties:

Southeast Itasca, MN
Aitkin, MN

Some locations that will experience flooding include:  Grand Rapids…Aitkin…Jacobson…Kimberly…La Prairie…Libby…McGregor…Palisade…Pine Knoll…Swan River…Swatara…and Tamarack.

*Flood Warning*

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

*At 3:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 18.5 feet.
*Major flood stage is 18.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.

*Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

*The river is forecast to remain in major flood stage through Tuesday, July 3rd.  And is expected to be in moderate flood stage from July 4th through July 7th.

*At 19.0 feet the Transformer Station needs emergency protection.

*Flood Warning*

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.

*At 2:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 11.8 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

*The river will continue to fall to near 11.5 feet by Tomorrow Morning.

*At 12.0 feet the Boat Landing and parking lot at the Public Access are under water.

-Visible satellite image from 3:15 PM CDT Today, note the bright white dot in Southwest South Dakota, that’s a supercell thunderstorm that dropped golf ball size hail in Custer County.

Weather Tidbits:

-389 record high temperatures were either tied or broken in the U.S. on June 29th.  145 of them were June records and 37 of them were all-time records.  (TWC)

-Nearly 40,000 high temperature records have been broken so far in 2012 compared to 24,000 up to this point last year.  (weathernation)

-Today marks the 10th time so far this year with a high temperature of at least 90F at Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota.  The average for an entire year is 14.

-Today marks the 4th day in a row with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.

-A derecho traveled more than 600 miles on Friday from Chicago, Illinois to Washington, D.C.  1,036 severe weather reports occurred on Friday with 977 damaging wind reports, 35 of which were significant (winds >65 knots)  Source:  Storm Prediction Center

-Here are some of the more significant wind reports from Friday:  Fort Wayne, Indiana:  91 MPH; Marengo, Iowa:  90 MPH; Findlay, Ohio:  84 MPH; Dayton, Ohio:  82 MPH; Ladora, Iowa:  80 MPH.

-An amazing number of damaging wind reports (blue dots on the map below) on Friday.  (SPC)

*A few high temperature records from Friday, June 29th, 2012*
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania:  97F
Georgetown, Delaware:  101F
Washington, D.C. (Dulles)  102F
Roanoke, Virginia:  103F
Indianapolis, Indiana:  103F
Danville, Virginia:  104F
Charlotte, North Carolina:  104F
Nashville, Tennessee:  109F


Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today, in fact some locations saw a lot more clouds Today compared to previous days.  Temperatures were still on the warm side, however, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to middle 80s which is about 5 degrees or so above the normal for the final day of June.  Dewpoints Today remained in the tolerable category with readings in the 50s.  Winds were out of the southwest or north-northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A continued W/NW flow across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis with upper level ridging across the Central-Southern U.S.  Disturbances continue to E-SE from the Rockies through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, or on the north side of the intense heat dome to our south.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C in Northern and Central Minnesota.

-500mb analysis for 7 AM Sunday, June 30th, 2012

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (June 30th)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with lows in the 50s and 60s along with light winds at around 10 mph.  A disturbance moving SE across the region combined with marginal instability with CAPE <1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of 0 to -3C may be enough to trigger a few showers or thunderstorms in parts of the Northland Tonight, but severe weather is not expected.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

Sunday and Sunday Night (July 1st)

It will become a little more humid and unstable during this period as a stalled frontal boundary in Nebraska and Iowa begins to lift slowly toward the north.  This front combined with possible disturbances going up and around the heat pump (ridge) to our south could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms in our area for Sunday and Sunday Night.

CAPE is forecast to reach 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -1 to -4C.  There will also be some wind shear in place, generally around 30 knots of 0-6 KM and Effective Bulk Shear.

Dewpoints will range from 57-65F with PWATS of 1.00-1.50″ and 850mb dewpoints around +10C.

Thunderstorm coverage should remain spotty in the Northland, but storms that develop could become strong to possibly severe with a threat for hail and gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.  Sky conditions will vary between partly and mostly cloudy, similar to Saturday.

-Sunday’s high temperature forecast

-Storm Prediction Center has all of the Northland in a 5% chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday Night.

Extended Forecast, Monday-Wednesday (July 2nd-4th)

The overall weather pattern changes little during this period.  An upper level ridge in the Plains and Ohio Valley may expand a bit more to the north with a near zonal flow (west to east) in place north of this ridge from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes.

There should be plenty of instability and moisture in our area with a frontal boundary nearby and possible disturbances tracking across the region.  Showers or thunderstorms could develop on occasion from Monday-Wednesday, and if storms do develop they could become severe.

High temperatures will be mainly in the 80s and 90s through this period, although it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior.  Lows for Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be mainly in the 60s.

-Storm Prediction has much of Northcentral Minnesota in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday and Monday Night.

-HPC’s max Heat Index Forecast for Wednesday, July 4th, 2012.  100-105F heat index values possible as far north as Southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities on the 4th.

Long Range Forecast (July 5th-11th)

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for next Thursday-Saturday, July 5-7.  The pattern at that time will continue to feature a hot dome of high pressure to our south with a frontal boundary in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Still seeing signs per long range model guidance for a bit of pattern change between July 8-11 with more of a NW flow and drier/somewhat cooler/more stable air moving into the Upper Midwest at that time.  Temperatures through this period are forecast to be at or above normal.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west around 10 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday…  Variable cloudiness.  Warm and a bit humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 81 to 86.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly early.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind becoming east around 10 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  Humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83 but cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday…  Humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.4th of July…  Partly sunny.  Humid.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  75
Low:  53

Sunrise Sunday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   9:06 PM CDT

Duluth-Superior Harbor water temperature:  63F as of Saturday Morning

Sunday’s UV Index:  9.0/Medium-High

Tim

“Coca Cola Vintage Pub Stool”

Issued at 3:48 PM CDT, Friday, June 29th, 2012

Tonight:  Slight chance for a shower/t-storm far Southern areas.
Saturday:  Warm, still not too humid.  A few showers/t-storms?
Sunday:  Warm, a little more humid.  A few showers/t-storms?

…Latest Flood Information As of Friday Afternoon…

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*Flood Warning* Until 6:00 AM CDT Sunday for the following Counties:

Aitkin, MN
Southeast Itasca, MN
Southwest St. Louis, MN

Some locations that will experience flooding include:  Grand Rapids…Aitkin…Jacobson…Kimberly…La Prairie…Libby…McGregor…Palisade…Pine Knoll…Swan River…Swatara…and Tamarack.

*Flood Warning* Until 5:30 AM CDT Sunday for the following Counties:

Crow Wing, MN
Southeast Cass, MN

Some locations that will experience flooding include:  Brainerd…Crosby…Cross Lake…Cuyuna…Deerwood…Emily…Fort Ripley…Little Pine…Misson…Pine Center…Riverton…Trommald…and Woodrow.

*Flood Warning*

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River near Aitkin affecting Aitkin County.

*At 3:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 18.7 feet.
*Flood stage is 12.0 feet.

*Major flooding is occurring and will continue through Friday, July 6th.

*The river will continue to fall to a stage of 18.5 feet by Tomorrow Morning.

*At 19.0 feet the Transformer Station needs emergency protection.

*Flood Warning*

A flood warning remains in effect for the Mississippi River at Fort Ripley affecting Morrison and Crow Wing Counties.

*At 2:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 12.0 feet.
*Flood stage is 10.0 feet.

*Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast to continue through Friday, July 6th.

*The river will continue to fall to a stage of 11.8 feet by Tomorrow Morning.

*At 12.0 feet the Boat Landing and parking lot at the Public Access are under water.

-NWS watch/warning map

Green=Flood Warning

Weather Tidbits:

*16 all-time record highs were broken or tied from Wyoming to Kansas and 47 June records were broken or tied on Wednesday, June 27th, 2012  (Jim Cantore) (Jeff Masters)

*Over 1000 record highs in the U.S. during the past week.  1142 to be exact.  (Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times)

*Today marks the 2nd time this month with 3 consecutive days at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  (June 8-10) and (June 27-29)

Here’s some additional record high temperatures from Thursday, June 28th, 2012

-Evansville, Indiana:  106F (all-time record for June) Previous record 102F in 1936.
-Russell, Kansas:  110F.  Previous record 108F in 1968.
-Dodge City, Kansas:  108F.  Tied the record last set in 1998, 1990, and 1930.
-Toledo, Ohio:  103F.  Previous record 101F in 1934.
-Nashville, Tennessee:  105F.  Previous record 104F in 1952.
-Louisville, Kentucky:  103F.

12 months and counting where the average monthly temperature was above normal at Duluth, Minnesota.

July, 2011:  +4.3 degrees
August, 2011:  +2.5 degrees
September, 2011:  +0.6 degrees
October, 2011:  +5.3 degrees
November, 2011:  +4.3 degrees
December, 2011:  +6.9 degrees
January, 2012:  +7.8 degrees
February, 2012:  +8.6 degrees
March, 2012:  +13.3 degrees
April, 2012:  +2.8 degrees
May, 2012:  +3.6 degrees
June, 2012:  Around +4.0 degrees???

Note:  Of the 12 months, only the month of September finished with a monthly temperature surplus shy of 1.0 degree.

Note:  5 out of the 12 months had a temperature surplus of at least 5.0 degrees.  October, December, January, February, and March.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another warm day in the Northland with partly cloudy to sunny skies.  Highs were in the 80s with dewpoints holding primarily in the 50s.  Winds were out of the west at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow continued across the Upper Midwest with a couple of disturbances moving east-southeast from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level ridge continued to blanket the Central and Southern U.S. per RAP model analysis.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20C in Southern Minnesota to +16 to +18C in the remainder of Minnesota.

-500mb map as of 7 AM CDT, Friday, June 29th, 2012

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (June 29th)

Can’t rule out a few showers or thunderstorms before Midnight, mainly south of a Brainerd, Minnesota to Winter, Wisconsin line.  A disturbance dropping E/SE out of South Dakota combined with just enough moisture and instability may be enough to trigger spotty showers This Evening in those areas.  Otherwise it will be another quite night with clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with west winds at 5 to 15 mph.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

Saturday and Saturday Night (June 30th)

The final day of June will be another warm one with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to at times mostly cloudy skies can be expected this period.  There is a possibility for a few showers or thunderstorms mainly in Western-Southern parts of the area.  Shouldn’t be any severe weather though with just marginal instability and moisture in place.  But, lightning is a threat from any thunderstorm so keep that in mind! Winds during this period will be out of the north or west at 10 to 15 mph.

-Saturday’s high temperature forecast

Extended Forecast, Sunday-Tuesday (July 1st-3rd)

Humidity levels will be climbing during this period, should have dewpoints reaching the 60s all 3 days.  A ridge of high pressure will continue to sit to our south while disturbances moving around the ridge affect the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Those disturbances, plus higher amounts of instability and moisture could lead to some showers and thunderstorms on occasion, may even be a risk for a few severe thunderstorms Sunday-Tuesday.  High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night will mainly be in the 60s.

-The Storm Prediction has all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin in a 5% chance area for severe thunderstorms for Sunday, July 1st.

Long Range Forecast (July 4th-10th)

Looks like we could thread the needle and have a nice 4th of July across the Northland as Tuesday’s weather system pushes off to our south/east by mid-week the way it looks now.  The chance for showers or thunderstorms could return from Thursday-Sunday, July 5-8th.  A pattern change could be coming by the 2nd week of July with an upper level trough and more of a N/NW flow possible for the Great Lakes.  We shall see.  Temperatures through this period should stay at or above normal.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph early.  Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  High 80 to 85.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind north around 10 mph.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 79 to 84.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 56 to 61.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Tuesday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 40%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:  53

Sunrise Saturday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   9:07 PM CDT


Saturday’s UV Index:  9.0/Medium-High

Tim

Nikon D5100 16.2MP Digital SLR Camera – Body Only – Digital SLR

Issued at 6:53 PM CDT, Thursday, June 28th, 2012

Tonight:  Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures.
Friday:  Warm, comfortable humidity levels, no rain.
Saturday:  Continued warm and mostly dry.

Weather Tidbits:

*Today marks the 5th day so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80F at the Duluth Airport.  Were now up to 8 days at or above 80F in 2012.  In 2011, thru June 30th…We only had 1 day with a high temperature of at least 80F.

*Several Meso-net stations in the Mankato, MN area reached 100F on Wednesday (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)  A few other hot temperatures from Wednesday include, 99F at New Ulm; and 97F at St. James, Minnesota.

*Hill City, Kansas reached 115F on Wednesday for the 2nd day in a row.  Wednesday also marked the 5th consecutive day with a maximum temperature of at least 110F.  (Paul Douglas. St. Cloud Times)


*187 high temperature records in the U.S. from June 27th thru the Afternoon hours of June 28th.  (HAMweather)

*Chicago O’Hare reached 100F Today.  This is the 1st time since 1988 (24 years ago) with a high temperature reaching the century mark.  (WGN)

*Here’s a few other high temperatures from Today:

Note:  All the locations listed below tied or set their all-time June temperature record.

Chicago, Midway Airport:  101F
St. Louis, Missouri:  108F
Indianapolis, Indiana:  104F
Ft. Wayne, Indiana:  106F

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another very nice early summer day throughout the Northland.  Skies were generally sunny and temperatures were on the warm side with highs mainly in the 80s.  Dewpoints dropped big time Today with readings in the upper 40s to middle 50s.  Winds were out of the west or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with some stronger gusts.

-Visible satellite image from 3 PM CDT Today.  The milky appearance from Northeast South Dakota into Northcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin was some smoke caused by the horrific wild fires that are currently burning in Colorado.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

A west-northwest flow was in place across the Northern tier of the U.S. while a large ridge of high pressure continued to blanket the Central/Southern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley per RAP model analysis and water vapor satellite imagery.  850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +16 to +18C in Northern Minnesota to +20 to +22C across Western and Southern Minnesota.

-500mb as of 4 PM Today per PSU-ewall site

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight-Friday Night (June 28th-29th)

A frontal boundary will remain parked well south of our area during this period.  A very muggy and unstable airmass will be found near this front from parts of the Dakotas, through Southern Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois.  A warm, but much more stable/drier airmass will continue up in our neck of the woods.  Low temperatures Tonight and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Friday mostly in the 80s.  Dewpoints should remain in the 40s and 50s through Friday Night, but a few locations in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin could creep into the low 60s for a few hours Friday Afternoon or Evening.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

-Friday’s high temperature forecast

Extended Forecast, Saturday-Monday (June 30th-July 2nd)

A frontal boundary well to our south through Friday Night will start to lift slowly back toward the north during this period.  A west-northwest upper level flow will also continue across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  The combination of the frontal boundary and possible disturbances moving SE out of the Dakotas could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through Monday, although right now it doesn’t appear that will see anything that significant or widespread in our area.  High temperatures during this period will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night in the 50s and 60s.


Long Range Forecast (July 3rd-9th)

The weather pattern is forecast to remain pretty consistent from what were currently seeing.  A ridge of high pressure resulting in very warm to hot summer-time temperatures should persist across a large portion of the U.S. with the main jet stream winds confined to the Northern states.  Our area should remain close to the jet stream, as a result there could be some showers and thunderstorms at times as disturbances and their associated frontal boundaries push through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  The core of the real intense heat should stay west-south of our local area, but it looks to stay fairly warm even in the Northland with temperatures at or above average during this period.

-Latest Drought Monitor for Minnesota as of June 26th, 2012.  Parts of Northwest Minnesota are in Moderate Drought.  (Climate Prediction Center)

-Precipitation totals of 6-9″ are needed in parts of Northwest Minnesota to eliminate the LONG TERM DROUGHT.  (MRCC)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Warm.  Mostly sunny.  High 82 to 87.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 56 to 61.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  74
Low:  53

Sunrise Friday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:07 PM CDT

Friday’s UV Index:  10.0/High
Friday’s Allergy Forecast:  5.2/Medium

Park Point Water Temperature:  60F as of Friday Afternoon.

Tim

Issued at 4:29 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 27th, 2012

Tonight:  Warm/muggy.  Spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday:  Warm, less humid with no rain.
Friday:  Continued warm and not too humid.

Weather Tidbits:
Source:  Paul Douglas.  St. Cloud Times

*105F at Denver, Colorado on Tuesday.  2nd day in a row with a high of 105F.  This ties the all time record high temperature.

*111F at Miles City, Montana on Tuesday.  Hottest temperature ever recorded.

*101F at Colorado Springs, Colorado on Tuesday.  Hottest temperature ever recorded.

The heat is on across the Central Plains, here’s some of the warmer temperatures as of 4 PM Today.


-A plot of surface temps and dewpoints from the North Central U.S. as of 5 PM Today.  Source:  PSU e-WALL site.

Iowa:

Le Mars:  100F
Shenandoah:  102F

Nebraska:

Mc Cook:  107F
Grand Island:  102F
York:  103F
Norfolk:  102F
Lincoln:  102F

Kansas:

Goodland:  105F
Hill City:  115F
Hays:  111F
Russell:  113F
Salina:  109F

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A weak cold front has been moving east across the Upper Midwest Today.  Warm and increasingly more humid air was found in our area with highs in the 80s to around 90 degrees with cooler 60s and 70s in Superior and Downtown Duluth.  Dewpoints as of late This Afternoon were generally in the 60s to lower 70s.  The warmest heat index in the Northland as of 4 PM was at International Falls 93F.  Winds Today were out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis show upper level troughs in the Northeast U.S., Pacific Northwest and Western Canada while a large upper level ridge covered areas from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the Central and Southern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +26C in Minnesota.

-500mb map as of 4 PM Today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (June 27th)

A weak cold front will be moving through our area during the night.  The atmosphere will be quite unstable along and ahead of this boundary with CAPE of 1500-3500 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -9C.  It will also be capped with 700mb temperatures of +14 to +19C with only slow cooling expected to take place from NW-SE later in the night.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms managed to develop This Afternoon even with the strongly capped air in parts of Northcentral Minnesota.  Doppler radar rainfall estimates showed a quick quarter to half inch of rain in spots across Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin, and Itasca Counties with totals >1.00 in parts of Northern Crow Wing County.  This activity was beginning to fall apart as of late This Afternoon as it moves into Northeast Minnesota.

There remains the possibility that a few showers and thunderstorms will redevelop in our area Tonight, but the very warm temperatures aloft should keep convection on the spotty side.

Wind shear of 30-40 knots combined with mid level winds of around 40 knots and an upper level jet of 80-100 knots to our W/NW could cause some storm organization, if one were to develop Tonight.

Lows will be in the 50s and 60s, but a few locations may struggle to get below 70 degrees.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 5 to 15 mph.

Dewpoints will remain in the 60s and 70s with drier air arriving from the northwest after Midnight.

-There is a 5% chance for damaging wind and large hail in portions of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Tonight.  (SPC)

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

Thursday and Thursday Night (June 28th)

A cold front will stall out well south of our area.  A drier airmass will invade our area during this period with dewpoints in the 50s and PWATS <1.00".  Partly cloudy skies are expected with highs on Thursday mainly in the 80s with lows Thursday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the north or west at 10 to 20 mph.

-Thursday’s high temperature forecast

Extended Forecast, Friday-Sunday (June 29th-July 1st)

A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary south of Minnesota through this period.  The deepest moisture and greatest instability will be tied up near this front, and that’s where the best chance for showers and thunderstorms should be during this period.  The Northland will remain in a warm weather pattern with a west or west-northwest upper level flow, but dewpoints should be tolerable compared to locations farther south.  This period looks pretty dry at this time, but a shower or thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, especially on Saturday.  High temperatures from Friday through Sunday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (July 2nd-8th)

Next Monday (2nd) continues to look dry.  Showers or thunderstorms are possible at times from the 3rd-8th, but once again no all day rain is expected, and not every day will be wet.  Temperatures are forecast to be at or above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Humid.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Variable cloudiness.  Low 62 to 67.  Wind variable around 10 mph, becoming northwest Overnight.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Thursday…  Warm, but less humid.  Mostly sunny.  High 83 to 88.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 82 to 87.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Saturday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 77 to 82.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Saturday Night…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  74
Low:  53

Sunrise Thursday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim