Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 31st, 2012
Wednesday, August 1st:
Temperatures in the 80s during the Afternoon and early Evening hours, falling to around 70 degrees by mid to late Evening. 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday, August 2nd:
-Parade weather (6-7 PM) Temperatures around 80 degrees and dry.
-Fireworks weather (10:20 PM) Temperatures falling into the 60s and dry.
Friday, August 3rd:
-Street Dance weather (7 PM-1 AM) Temperatures around 70 degrees. 40% chance of rain.
*15z 7.31.12 SREF model calibrated severe weather forecast for 7 PM Wednesday. Still seeing higher values for potential severe weather from Southcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
25 days this month with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota. This is the most on record for any month. The previous record was 24 days set in July 1988.
*1 tornado so far this year in Wisconsin. An EF-0 on May 24th. Average to date is 26 tornadoes. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*33 tornado reports so far this year in Minnesota. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*2 more storm reports from Sunday Night. 7:30 PM CDT 7/29: 1.00″ HAIL. 6 S of Ely, MN (St. Louis County) 12:05 AM CDT 7/30: 0.75″ HAIL. Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County) Source: NWS Duluth, MN.
*35 days so far this year at or above 90F at Chicago O’Hare. 36 days at or above 90F at Midway Airport. Average for an entire summer is 17. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*28 days so far this year at or above 90F at Madison, Wisconsin. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*On this date in 2006: A record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Another nice day as we close out the month of July. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Dew points were in the 50s and 60s and winds were out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Northwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest with troughs over the Northwest U.S. and Northeast U.S. and an upper ridge covering the Central/Southern Rockies, east through the Central/Southern Plains. 850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Southwest and far Western Minnesota to +16 to +18C across the remainder of Minnesota.
-500mb map for 7 AM Today
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (July 31st)
We will see a warm/moist advection pattern spread into our area Tonight along with a southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots as low pressure and it’s warm front and cold front track east across the Northern Plains. Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop at times, especially in Northcentral Minnesota. There doesn’t appear to be a real big severe weather threat for Tonight, but some downpours and lightning could accompany a few of the storms. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.
-18z 7.31.12 NAM-HIRES model is hinting at a potential thunderstorm complex in the Northern half of Minnesota late Tonight into Wednesday Morning.
-Tonight’s low temperature forecast
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (August 1st)
An area of low pressure with it’s warm front and cold front will be moving through the Northland during this period. Scattered Morning showers or thunderstorms are possible in our area, then will probably get a break before we could see a few more showers and thunderstorms later in the Afternoon and into the Evening hours. There looks to be 2 main spots where storms may fire late Tomorrow PM. One will be along the Minnesota-Ontario border, into the Arrowhead. The other in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Warmer air aloft may keep many thunderstorms from developing Tomorrow Afternoon, but any storm that does develop and can sustain itself could become severe with strong mid-upper level winds in place along with decent amounts of instability, moisture, and wind shear.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 80s and lower 90s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s. Winds will be out of the south, east, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
-Wednesday’s high temperature forecast
-A 5% chance for severe thunderstorms continues in all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday. (Storm Prediction Center)
Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (August 2nd-4th)
Thursday: A cold front will settle south and out of our area with high pressure to our north. Looks mainly dry in our area with highs in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.
Friday: Low pressure approaches from the west with another warm front and cold front heading into the Upper Midwest. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system approaches. Still too early to tell if will have a severe threat, but it’s certainly possible since this system looks pretty strong and should have fast winds aloft and decent shear to work with. Stay tuned! Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.
Saturday: Low pressure will pass north of our area with a cold front exiting to our south/east. Showers are possible on Saturday with a few thunderstorms also possible, especially in Northwest Wisconsin. Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.
-5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC. Valid through Sunday, August 5th, 2012. Seeing some decent rainfall totals across Minnesota, some of this will fall Tonight-Wednesday, the other event looks to be Friday-Saturday.
Long Range Forecast (August 5th-10th)
Dry weather is forecast for Sunday (5th) Could see quite a warm/heat wave spread into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the early/mid part of next week (6th-8th) The potential also exists for a few showers or thunderstorms from the 6th-10th. Temperatures will be at or above average through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers possible at times. Low 61 to 66. Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Wednesday… More humid. Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 82 to 87. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
.Wednesday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 77 to 82.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 58 to 63.
.Friday… Variable cloudiness. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 73 to 78. Chance of rain 20%.
.Friday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 40%.
.Saturday… Showers possible. Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Wednesday: 5:49 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:40 PM CDT
Wednesday’s Allergy Forecast: 5.5/Medium
Wednesday’s UV Index: 8.0/Medium-High