Spirit Valley Days forecast in Today’s blog. Latest info. on the storm potential for late Tonight-Wednesday, and for later this week.

Issued at 4:13 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

*Spirit Valley Days weather forecast for West Duluth*

Wednesday, August 1st: 

Temperatures in the 80s during the Afternoon and early Evening hours, falling to around 70 degrees by mid to late Evening.  40% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday, August 2nd:

-Parade weather (6-7 PM)  Temperatures around 80 degrees and dry.
-Fireworks weather (10:20 PM)  Temperatures falling into the 60s and dry.

Friday, August 3rd:

-Street Dance weather (7 PM-1 AM)  Temperatures around 70 degrees.  40% chance of rain.

*15z 7.31.12 SREF model calibrated severe weather forecast for 7 PM Wednesday.  Still seeing higher values for potential severe weather from Southcentral-Eastcentral Minnesota into Northwest Wisconsin.

*Record Event*

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

25 days this month with a high temperature of at least 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  This is the most on record for any month.  The previous record was 24 days set in July 1988.

Weather Tidbits:

*1 tornado so far this year in Wisconsin.  An EF-0 on May 24th.  Average to date is 26 tornadoes.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*33 tornado reports so far this year in Minnesota.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*2 more storm reports from Sunday Night.  7:30 PM CDT 7/29:  1.00″ HAIL.  6 S of Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  12:05 AM CDT 7/30:  0.75″ HAIL.  Big Falls, MN (Koochiching County)  Source:  NWS Duluth, MN.

*35 days so far this year at or above 90F at Chicago O’Hare.  36 days at or above 90F at Midway Airport.  Average for an entire summer is 17.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*28 days so far this year at or above 90F at Madison, Wisconsin.  (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)

*On this date in 2006:  A record high temperature of 95 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another nice day as we close out the month of July.  Skies were partly to mostly cloudy Today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Dew points were in the 50s and 60s and winds were out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow continues across the Upper Midwest with troughs over the Northwest U.S. and Northeast U.S. and an upper ridge covering the Central/Southern Rockies, east through the Central/Southern Plains.  850mb temperatures as of 4 PM ranged from +20 to +22C in Southwest and far Western Minnesota to +16 to +18C across the remainder of Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 31st)

We will see a warm/moist advection pattern spread into our area Tonight along with a southwest low level jet of 30-40 knots as low pressure and it’s warm front and cold front track east across the Northern Plains.  Scattered showers or thunderstorms could develop at times, especially in Northcentral Minnesota.  There doesn’t appear to be a real big severe weather threat for Tonight, but some downpours and lightning could accompany a few of the storms.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

-18z 7.31.12 NAM-HIRES model is hinting at a potential thunderstorm complex in the Northern half of Minnesota late Tonight into Wednesday Morning.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (August 1st)

An area of low pressure with it’s warm front and cold front will be moving through the Northland during this period.  Scattered Morning showers or thunderstorms are possible in our area, then will probably get a break before we could see a few more showers and thunderstorms later in the Afternoon and into the Evening hours.  There looks to be 2 main spots where storms may fire late Tomorrow PM.  One will be along the Minnesota-Ontario border, into the Arrowhead.  The other in Eastcentral Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Warmer air aloft may keep many thunderstorms from developing Tomorrow Afternoon, but any storm that does develop and can sustain itself could become severe with strong mid-upper level winds in place along with decent amounts of instability, moisture, and wind shear.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs Tomorrow in the 80s and lower 90s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

-Wednesday’s high temperature forecast

-A 5% chance for severe thunderstorms continues in all of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Wednesday.  (Storm Prediction Center)

Extended Forecast, Thursday through Saturday (August 2nd-4th)

Thursday:  A cold front will settle south and out of our area with high pressure to our north.  Looks mainly dry in our area with highs in the 70s and 80s.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Friday:  Low pressure approaches from the west with another warm front and cold front heading into the Upper Midwest.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin as this system approaches.  Still too early to tell if will have a severe threat, but it’s certainly possible since this system looks pretty strong and should have fast winds aloft and decent shear to work with.  Stay tuned!  Highs on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Saturday:  Low pressure will pass north of our area with a cold front exiting to our south/east.  Showers are possible on Saturday with a few thunderstorms also possible, especially in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

-5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC.  Valid through Sunday, August 5th, 2012.  Seeing some decent rainfall totals across Minnesota, some of this will fall Tonight-Wednesday, the other event looks to be Friday-Saturday.

Long Range Forecast (August 5th-10th)

Dry weather is forecast for Sunday (5th) Could see quite a warm/heat wave spread into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest for the early/mid part of next week (6th-8th) The potential also exists for a few showers or thunderstorms from the 6th-10th.  Temperatures will be at or above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers possible at times.  Low 61 to 66.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  More humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 82 to 87.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Wednesday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

.Friday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 40%.

.Saturday…  Showers possible.  Partly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Chance of rain 30%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:49 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:40 PM CDT

Wednesday’s Allergy Forecast:  5.5/Medium
Wednesday’s UV Index:  8.0/Medium-High


Tim



Nice Tonight, and July will end on a mild/dry note on Tuesday. Possible storms for Wednesday.

Issued at 3:51 PM CDT, Monday, July 30th, 2012

Tonight:  Clear-partly cloudy.  Spotty shower early? Patchy fog late.

Tuesday:  Mild temps, comfortable humidity.

Wednesday:  Warm, somewhat humid.  Possible showers and thunderstorms.

Rainfall report for Sunday Evening-early Monday Morning, July 29-30, 2012

Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.77″
Grand Marais, MN:  1.30″
Hibbing, MN:  0.86″
Cook, MN:  0.34″
Embarrass, MN:  0.26″
Grand Portage, MN:  0.56″
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.50″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.53″
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.33″
Finland, MN:  0.22″
Gurney, WI:  2.10″
Madeline Island, WI:  0.21″
Upson, WI:  0.78″
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.22″

Weather Tidbits:

*As of July 29:  23 days this month at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota.  Yearly total is up to 33 days.  We’ve also had 3 days at or above 90F so far this year at the Duluth Airport.

*This month will likely be the 1st month since last January that finishes with below average precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota.  January ’12:  -0.59″.  February ’12:  +0.60″.  March ’12:  +0.13″.  April ’12:  +1.27″.  May ’12:  +3.38″.  June ’12:  +5.80″

*One storm report from Sunday Evening.  7:08 PM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL 5 NW of Ely, MN (St. Louis County) At Burntside Lake Lodge.  (NWS)

*On this date in 1995:  A record high temperature of 94 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.  And on this date in 1992, a record low temperature of 42 degrees occurred at Duluth, Minnesota.

-15z 7.30.12 SREF model calibrated severe weather probability for 7 PM Wednesday.  Looks like the higher numbers for possible severe weather are setting up in Western Wisconsin, and Southern-Eastern Minnesota for Wednesday.  Stay tuned!


Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1008mb was centered over Northern Lake Superior with a cold front extending southwest from the low into Central Wisconsin.  High pressure of 1016mb was in Southeast Saskatchewan.  Skies were partly to mostly sunny Today with west or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.  A few light showers or sprinkles have been passing through Northeast Minnesota, otherwise it’s been dry Today.  Dew points are lower compared to Sunday with 50s and 60s over our area Today.


Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Northwest flow was in place across the Upper Midwest per RAP model analysis.  Sunday’s disturbance has reached the Northern-Central Great Lakes This Afternoon and continues to move off toward the east per water vapor satellite imagery.  An upper level ridge covered the Central-Southern Rockies and Plains while an upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest.  850mb temperatures as of 3 PM ranged from +20 to +24C across Southern Minnesota to +14 to +18C over the remainder of the state.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 30th)

High pressure will bring clear to partly cloudy skies to our area with patchy late night fog.  The possibility for a shower or two will quickly fade away as sunset approaches.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s with some 40s possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or west at up to 15 mph.

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (July 31st)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather on Tuesday with sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs will be in the 70s and 80s with tolerable dew points.  Southerly flow will kick in once again by Tuesday Night as high pressure exits to our east.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tomorrow Night, and there could be a few showers later in the night, especially in the Western-Northern areas.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with south, west, or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

-Tuesday’s high temperature forecast

Extended Forecast, Wednesday through Friday (August 1st-3rd)

Low pressure and a cold front will be tracking across the Northland on Wednesday.  We should see a decent build up of instability along and ahead of this boundary with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices of -3 to -7C.  The temperatures aloft look quite warm, however, with 850mb temps approaching +22C and 700mb temps nearing +12C, in other words the cap looks to overspread our area on Wednesday, and this will likely hinder thunderstorm development.  The way it looks now is that will see spotty showers and thunderstorms in our area from late Wednesday Afternoon into the Evening hours.  Storms that are able to develop could turn severe with decent wind shear in place along with favorable mid/upper level winds.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 80s and 90s, dew points should pool into the 60s.  Lows Wednesday Night will be mainly in the 60s.

-Severe weather outlook for Wednesday.  5% chances cover all of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  (SPC)

Mainly dry conditions should return on Thursday with highs in the 70s and 80s.  The next weather system could move toward the Upper Midwest on Friday with possible showers or thunderstorms.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Friday in the 70s and 80s.

Note:  That late week system will need to be watched for a possible larger severe weather outbreak, although there are timing and strength differences between the computer models at this time, so it’ll likely take another day or 2 for those differences to get ironed out.

-5 day rainfall forecast from the HPC.  This is valid through Saturday Morning, August 4th.  >0.50″ totals for almost all of Minnesota for the next 5 days.

Long Range Forecast (August 4th-9th)

Showers and thunderstorms could linger into Saturday (4th) but as I stated above the computer models are differing as to how fast this system moves through.  Dry weather is expected for Sunday-Monday (5th-6th) Showers or storms might return to the region between the 7th-9th.  Temperatures are expected to stay at or above average during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 78 to 83.  Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 83 to 88.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible, especially during the Evening.  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 78.  Chance of rain 20%.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:41 PM CDT

Tuesday’s Allergy Forecast:  6.3/Medium
Tuesday’s UV Index:  7.0/Medium

Tim


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*Severe T-storm Watch until 3 AM Monday*

Issued at 7:51 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #539*

Source:  Storm Prediction Center

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Northern Minnesota until 3 AM CDT Monday.

Hazards:


Hail to 2″ in diameter
Thunderstorm wind gusts to 70 mph
Dangerous Lightning 

Counties in the Duluth area included in the watch are:

Koochiching, MN
Itasca, MN
St. Louis, MN
Lake, MN

Some cities included in the watch are:

International Falls, MN…Grand Rapids, MN…Duluth, MN…Hibbing, MN…Ely, MN…Two Harbors, MN…Silver Bay, MN…Finland, MN…and Isabella, MN.

**Remember a severe thunderstorm watch means that conditions are favorable for severe weather in and close to the watch area, persons in these areas should listen for later updates and for possible warnings.  Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes**

Tim

Could see some storms Tonight and Monday. Possible wind shift to the east in Duluth Tonight.

Issued at 6:54 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

Tonight:  Some clouds, muggy, showers/t-storms for some.  (A few could be strong to severe)

Monday:  Humid.  A few showers and t-storms.

Tuesday:  Warm temps, but mostly dry.

High temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 22-28, 2012

7/22:  90F/13 degrees above average.
7/23:  85F/8 degrees above average.
7/24:  81F/4 degrees above average.
7/25:  81F/4 degrees above average.
7/26:  79F/2 degrees above average.
7/27:  73F/4 degrees below average.
7/28:  80F/3 degrees above average.

Low temperature report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 22-28, 2012

7/22:  60F/4 degrees above average.
7/23:  61F/5 degrees above average.
7/24:  60F/4 degrees above average.
7/25:  65F/9 degrees above average.
7/26:  61F/5 degrees above average.
7/27:  57F/1 degree above average.
7/28:  58F/2 degrees above average.

-Temperatures last week were about 3 degrees warmer than average in Duluth.

*Rainfall total for July 22-28, 2012:  

2.24″.  Average:  0.76″.  We were 1.48″ above average.

-Finally had a week with above average rainfall in the Twin Ports.  We saw about 200% of our average rainfall last week.

Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

It’s been a bit stormy This Afternoon in the Arrowhead of Minnesota where scattered showers and thunderstorms occurred, a few of these storms have been severe late This Afternoon in Northern St. Louis County.  Mainly dry weather for the rest of us Today with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Highs were generally in the 80s with dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds were out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Today’s Upper Level Analysis:

Still seeing a northwest flow across the Upper Midwest per water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis.  One disturbance was dropping E-SE out of Manitoba Canada while a nice looking upper low moves into the Pacific Northwest.  Meanwhile to our south, a ridge of high pressure stretched from the Central and Southern Rockies through the Southern U.S.  850mb temperatures as of 6 PM ranged from +20C in Northwest and far Southwest Minnesota to +16 to +18C in the rest of Minnesota.

-500mb map for 7 AM Today

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Tonight (July 29th)

Low pressure will remain to our northwest while a cold front and upper level disturbance head southeast into our area.  Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms around the Northland Tonight.  A few of the storms could be strong or severe with hail and gusty winds.  Instability should remain favorable during the night to support convection with CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg and Lifted Indices from -3 to -7C.  Decent amounts of wind shear should also be available with around 30-40 knots of 0-6 km  and Effective Bulk Shear.  Heavy downpours of rain are also possible with dew points in the 60s and PWATS of 1.20-1.70″.  Lows Tonight will be mainly in the 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Winds will be out of the south, west, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

-Rainfall forecast valid until 7 PM Monday per HPC

-Tonight’s low temperature forecast

Monday and Monday Night (July 30th)

Low pressure, cold front, and upper level disturbance will be exiting our area to the south-east on Monday.  Lingering instability behind this system could go on to produce a few more showers and thunderstorms Tomorrow and Tomorrow Evening, mainly from the Arrowhead and North Shore, into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Highs on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with lows Monday Night in the 50s and 60s.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with winds out of the west or north at up to 20 mph.

-Monday’s high temperature forecast

-A minimal 5% chance for severe thunderstorms for Monday in Northeast Minnesota and all of Northwest Wisconsin.  (SPC)

Extended Forecast, Tuesday through Thursday (July 31st-August 2nd)

Looks mainly dry on Tuesday with highs in the 70s and 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.  The next chance for showers or thunderstorms will be Wednesday and Thursday, and a few of these storms may become severe in parts of our area, especially on Wednesday the way it looks now.  High temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday with lows Wednesday Night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast (August 3rd-8th)

A more potent cold front could be swinging through the region between Friday-Saturday, August 3-4.  Looking like will see some showers and thunderstorms accompany this frontal passage, maybe some severe weather as well depending on the timing.  Dry weather should return for August 5-6, then we could see a few storms move back into the region toward the 7th-8th.  Temperatures are forecast to be near to above average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Humid.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly Overnight.  Low 63 to 68.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming east to southeast.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday…  Humid.  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Wednesday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 78 to 83.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Wednesday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible, especially during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Chance of rain 30%.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 77 to 82.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Monday:  5:47 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:43 PM CDT

Monday’s UV Index:  7.0/Medium

Tim

40% chance of a severe t-storm watch in N.MN. MD issued by the SPC.

Issued at 2:41 PM CDT, Sunday, July 29th, 2012

*A mesoscale discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Northern Minnesota.  This is valid until 4:45 PM Today.  Chances the SPC issue a thunderstorm watch is 40%*

-Image from the Storm Prediction Center.

There will be a scattering of showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through late Tonight.  The atmosphere was becoming unstable This Afternoon and sufficient amounts of instability should linger at least through the Evening hours to support a few severe thunderstorms.

CAPE is forecast to range from 1000-2000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -3 to -6C.  Effective Bulk Shear and 0-6 KM shear is forecast to be around 30-35 knots.  Mid level winds should remain <40 knots with a low level jet increasing to 30-40 knots This Evening.

An area of showers and thunderstorms was moving toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota as of mid-Afternoon, and additional development is expected to occur farther west in Northern Minnesota, Northeast North Dakota, and adjacent areas of Manitoba and Ontario Canada.

-Radar loop ending at 2:30 PM Today.

The main hazards from storms that become severe are from hail and gusty winds.

-SPC’s large hail potential through Tonight.  Greatest chances north of Duluth per 11:30 AM update.

-Damaging wind potential through Tonight.

-Tornado potential through Tonight.

Stay tuned to later weather updates and make sure you have a way to be notified should a watch or warning be issued.

Tim