Issued at 2:59 PM CDT, Friday, August 31st, 2012
*Fall color map for Minnesota as of August 30, 2012. A pocket of 10-25% color change covers a small part of Northern Minnesota, mainly from Bigfork and Northome, toward International Falls, and west to the Lake Of The Woods. Little to no color change in the rest of Minnesota, 0-10%. (MNDNR)
*Peak color times for the state of Minnesota
*Chilly This Morning in Northern Minnesota: 37F at Togo; 38F at Embarrass; 39F at Bigfork.
*28 days so far this year at or above 90F at Minneapolis/St. Paul. Average is 13 days. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*The summer of 2012 will likely finish as the 3rd hottest summer on record for the state of Minnesota. Only the summer of 1988 and 1934 were warmer. (Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*9=The number of days this month at or above 80F at Duluth, Minnesota. Total for 2012 is up to 44 days.
*Don’t miss the blue moon Tonight! The next one won’t happen until July 31st, 2015. No, the moon won’t be blue, it just means 2 full moons occurring in 1 month. (MPR Updraft)
*Could it be? Another month with above normal temperatures for Minnesota? Climate Prediction Center seems to think so with their forecast for above average temperatures for September 2012.
*September may also be drier than average in Minnesota per CPC.
*August temperature update*
August 2012 will finish above average making it the 14th consecutive month with an above average monthly temperature at Duluth, Minnesota. The last below average month was June 2011. The record for most consecutive months above average is 17 which occurred from December 1940 to April 1942. (NWS Duluth, MN)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A picture perfect end to August and meteorological summer. Sunny-partly cloudy skies prevailed Today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the crisp 30s and 40s. Winds were out of the north or east at around 10 mph.
Today’s Upper Level Analysis:
Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP model analysis show an upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest and another one across Central-Eastern Canada while an upper level ridge covered the Central, Southern, and parts of the Eastern U.S. A westerly was occurring north of that ridge across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures as of 2 PM ranged from +18 to +20C in Southern Minnesota to +14 to +16C elsewhere.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Tonight (August 31st)
High pressure over the Upper Midwest will keep skies clear to partly cloudy Tonight with pleasantly cool temperatures. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with a few 30s possible in the traditional cold spots. Patchy fog could develop late, and winds will remain light out of the north or east around 10 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (September 1st)
Welcome to Meteorological fall (September-November) Partly to at times mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period as high pressure moves off to our east with low pressure to our west. It should remain dry this period with highs Tomorrow in the 70s and 80s with lows Tomorrow Night mainly in the 50s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast, Sunday through Tuesday (September 2nd-4th)
There is a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms for Sunday and Labor Day as an area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front move across the Northland. At this time it appears that the best chance for some rain would be late Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night, continuing into Monday Morning. Monday Afternoon/Night look mainly dry at this time. Another opportunity for a few showers or thunderstorms will come next Tuesday as a new cold front heads into the Upper Midwest. High temperatures for Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with highs on Tuesday generally in the 70s. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s Sunday Night and mainly the 50s for Monday Night.
*A small, 5% chance for severe thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Sunday, September 2nd. (SPC)
Long Range Forecast (September 5th-10th)
The GFS and EUROPEAN computer models continue to show a pattern change for late next week/weekend (6th-9th) Both models indicate the development of an upper level low/trough from Central Canada, south into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, although they do differ as to how deep and amplified this trough will be. If we do see this type of pattern set-up, then there will be a chance for some rain showers from next Thursday-Sunday (6th-8th) Temperatures are forecast to be near to below normal during this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible late. Low 50 to 55. Wind east around 10 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 75 to 80.
.Sunday Night… Showers or thunderstorms possible. Mostly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Chance of rain 30%.
.Labor Day… Showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly during the Morning. Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 30%.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. Showers or thunderstorms possible. High 75 to 80. Chance of rain 20%.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 6:29 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 7:47 PM CDT
Today’s predominant pollens: Ragweed. Grasses.
Saturday’s Allergy Forecast: 8.0/Medium-High
Saturday’s UV Index: 7.0/Medium